Weather Derivatives for Specific Event Risks in Agriculture

This paper examines the economics and pricing of weather derivatives in Ontario and argues that weather derivatives and weather insurance can be used as a form of agricultural insurance. Using historical data, the relationship between crop productivity and weather is examined. Then a variety of put and call options for rain- and heat-based weather risk are discussed and numerically evaluated. The evaluation examines in detail the pricing of insurance contracts at a given location and across space.     

Retail Price Fixity as a Facilitating Mechanism

Previous theoretical explanations for retail price fixity show that fixed retail prices can be consistent with either competitive or imperfectly competitive behavior. We develop a conceptual model of retail pricing wherein fixed price points are facilitating mechanisms for tacit collusion. A non-cooperative equilibrium in fixed retail prices is supported through credible threats to revert to Nash pricing if cheating is suspected. We test the implications of this model using a two-stage, ordered probit approach in weekly supermarket pricing data. The results show that price fixity does support collusive equilibria among retailers, but other factors may also explain retail price behavior.     

Shared Agents and Competition in Laboratory English Auctions

At livestock auctions, the same purchasing agent can represent more than one processor. Repeated multiple-unit English auctions are created in a laboratory to measure the impact of shared agents on trade prices under alternative treatments with six, and as few as two, agents representing six principals. Treatments are constructed in which the agents either know or do not know quantity for sale, and in which there are progressively fewer agents bidding. Knowledge of quantity for sale can be anticompetitive. Evolution toward increased market concentration leads to consistent anticompetitive pricing, resulting in prices significantly lower than the predicted competitive equilibrium prices.     

资源依托型旅游产品价格制定的经济学分析

通过对资源依托型旅游产品价格制定的理论探讨,初步确立了影响此类产品价格制定的2个主要因素:游客的效用最大化和景区的利润最大化;通过构建静态纳什均衡,计算出了景区门票价格的理论值,并对此进行了结构分析,最后给出了相应的政策建议。     

ASPECTS OF HEDGING THEORY

In this paper, interpretative comments are offered on some established aspects of the economics of futures trading, including the nature of the equilibrium condition in the case of an inverse carrying charge, some inferences about traders' market positions made from estimates of returns, and the implications of the normal backwardation hypothesis in cases where hedgers are net long. The paper also includes a survey of the recent literature on the forward pricing function of futures markets, with a discussion of, inter alia, the methods used to investigate the hypothesis that futures prices are anticipations of delivery date spot prices, and the possible reasons why some markets perform this function better than others.     

Price Relationships in Processors' Input Market Areas: Testing Theories for Corn Prices Near Ethanol Plants

This study examines corn pricing in the vicinity of processing plants. We develop and test several price-distance models for cargo, insurance and freight (CIF) plant pricing in the presence of varying degrees of exporter competition, and for discriminatory free-on-board (FOB) pricing at the farm. The price-distance functions describing spatial prices near processing plants all depend on local transport costs. But the pricing system (CIF or FOB) and the extent of local competition define the level and spatial rate of change in prices.Estimations of an empirical price-location function for Iowa during the spring of 2003 suggest that prices near the plants of four conventional businesses conform to the CIF pricing model. But prices near producer-owned firms or farmer cooperatives failed to show any statistically significant effect on nearby prices. One plant had a price-distance function that resembled FOB pricing.     

PRICE-LINKED FARM AND SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS

The integration of detailed farm supply models with the basic spatial equilibrium model, is outlined. The direct linking of farm linear programming models with the spatial equilibrium model is achieved so that both prices and quantities are endogenous. Both the farm model and the spatial equilibrium model must be specified in primal-dual form to make the linkages. Limited details of the use of such a model in a study of a segment of the grain handling system in New South Wales are presented along with conclusions relating to the pricing of grain handling services.     

How do institutional market players matter in farmland pricing?

In this paper we analyse how institutional sellers within the privatisation process shape price formation in agricultural land markets by taking the German reunification as an example. These institutions sell the formerly state owned land within first-price sealed bid auctions, publish calls and obtained prices, and are hypothesised to exploit their market power. Based on the conceptual framework of hedonic pricing models, we use a spatio-temporal modelling approach to empirically quantify these impacts. We thereby control for land productivity characteristics, potential buyers and whether farmers purchase the land. We find that privatisation agencies sell at significantly higher prices, while one agency sells at lower prices to farmers.     

Regime switching and oligopsony power: the case of U.S. beef processing

In this article, we estimate a model of oligopsony behavior under imperfect monitoring of rival actions to analyze weekly marketing margin data for the U.S. beef packing industry. Oligopsonists are hypothesized to follow a discontinuous pricing strategy in equilibrium, and we focus on shocks in the normal throughput of supply as a potential catalyst for regime switching between cooperative and noncooperative phases. We adopt an algorithm developed by Bellone (2005) that relies on Hamilton’s (1989) multivariate first‐order Markov process to test for the cooperative/noncooperative switching behavior. We find strong evidence that links switching conduct by packers to disruptions in coordinating the derived demands for processed beef with the supply of live cattle. Once switched, cooperative regimes lasted an average of 21 weeks, while noncooperative regimes averaged 33 weeks. The average marketing margin for processed beef was 68% lower in the noncooperative regimes compared to the cooperative regimes. This led to an annual average increase in profits of 408 million dollars to the beef packing industry and about an 8–9% reduction in live cattle prices.     

Managing economic risk in value-based marketing of fed cattle

This research investigates optimal price risk management strategies for fed cattle producers engaged in grid pricing. Stochastic simulation is used to determine optimal hedge ratios for fed cattle priced on a live weight basis or on a series of grids that vary in terms of premium/discount structure as well as base price. Results indicate that the optimal hedging strategy is greatly affected by the base price used in a particular grid. This has significant implications for pricing efficiency in the cattle market. Base prices that are linked more closely with downstream markets offer the potential to improve pricing efficiency; however, the risk associated with these prices is difficult to manage effectively with existing futures instruments.     

Spatial allocation and the shadow pricing of product characteristics

The paper considers an industry transforming primary commodities (farm products) into processed commodities (food products). It focuses on the allocation of embedded characteristics (carbohydrate, protein, etc.) both across space and among commodities. The approach generates a spatial competitive market equilibrium of production, consumption, transformation, and trade for both primary and processed commodities, along with the spatial distribution of shadow prices for the product characteristics. The model provides a basis for analyzing the allocation and pricing of agricultural products, food products, and characteristics in spatial markets. The empirical usefulness of the model is illustrated in the context of regional resource allocation in the U.S. dairy sector.     

Effects of supermarket monopsony pricing on agriculture

Potential effects of alleged monopsony pricing of farm food products by supermarkets on farm product prices, quantities, incomes and land values are assessed relative to competitive behaviour. A long‐run comparative static equilibrium model is used. For export‐competing and import‐competing products, the farm food input supply curve facing the supermarkets is close to perfectly elastic and this limits monopsony behaviour. At the margin, the opportunity to reallocate agricultural land between traded and nontraded farm products means a highly elastic supply function for nontraded food inputs facing supermarkets and very limited monopsony effects.     

Pricing Weather Insurance with a Random Strike Price: The Ontario Ice-Wine Harvest

Weather insurance within the agricultural sector has been limited by the difficulty in defining the appropriate weather event and in pricing the product. We develop a new pricing method for weather insurance under situations where returns depend not only on the occurrence of the weather event, but also its timing. The method is used to price weather insurance for ice wine. Because the harvest quantity of grapes for ice wine degrades over time, the strike value on the weather event measured as harvestable hours is random. We develop a Monte Carlo method to estimate the premium.     

The role of retail market power and state regulations in the heterogeneity of farm‐retail price transmission of private label and branded products

Given the leading role of private label brands in the fluid milk market, it is of special interest to focus on possible differences in farm‐retail price transmission between private label and branded milk as well as the causes of heterogeneity. This article examines the heterogeneous effects of private label and branded products on price transmission in the fluid milk market using a panel threshold asymmetric error correction model. Results indicate that upward retail‐price adjustment is faster than the downward price adjustment for both private label and branded milk. The speed of adjustment of private label products is significantly faster than branded products in three different price regimes. We further investigate the reasons of heterogeneity in farm‐retail price transmission of private label milk. We find that both retailer market power and state pricing regulations contribute to the heterogeneity in asymmetric price transmission. Higher retailer market power causes retail prices of private label milk to rise faster and to fall slower. The existence of a state pricing regulation slows down the adjustment speed of retail prices of private labels back to the long‐run equilibrium, regardless of whether the retail price is low or high.     

THE POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF POSSIBLE NEW ZEALAND WHEAT PRICING SCHEMES*

An empirical policy simulation analysis that was performed prior to the adoption of the revised N.Z. wheat pricing arrangements is reported. The analysis was particularly timely as it coincided with, and made an input to, discussions between the various parties attempting to derive an improved wheat pricing scheme. The implications of making N.Z. farm-gate wheat pricing more responsive to world market prices were assessed using a simulation model to distill information on the impact of alternative pricing schemes on those criteria thought to be of interest to policymakers. The results also indicated how the recently announced new scheme would have performed. This information aided public decision making, particularly in clarifying some of the trade-offs that are necessary in choosing a pricing scheme.     

Trade,value chains,and rent distribution with foreign exchange controls: Coffee exports in Ethiopia

Exchange rate policies can have important implications on incentives for export agriculture. However, their effects are often not well understood. We study the issue of foreign exchange controls and pricing in the value chain for Ethiopia's coffee—its most important export crop. Relying on unique pricing and cost data, we find that coffee exporters are willing to incur losses during exporting by offering high prices for coffee locally in order to access scarce foreign exchange. We further find that the consequent high wholesale prices for coffee are transmitted to producers, so that coffee farmers are unintended beneficiaries of this rent.     

Could packers manipulate spot markets by tying contracts to futures prices? And do they?

Some producers, policy makers, and researchers claim that packers influence cash prices through contracts tied to futures prices. This paper provides a theoretical and empirical study on the price effects of contract-pricing terms linked to futures price and the related formula pricing terms linked to a cash price. We show that contract-pricing terms tied to a cattle futures price can theoretically be used to reduce the cash price. Furthermore, the model demonstrates that such tied-to-a-futures-price contract-pricing clauses and the related tied-to-a-cash-price formula pricing clauses can be substitutable tools for packers to depress the cash cattle price. Nevertheless, although empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model they show that while such manipulations may occur, their market power impact appears quite small.     

Spatial integration between Finnish and Dutch potato markets

This study estimated a conditional mean model for producer prices of fresh potatoes in Finland and for wholesale selling prices of fresh potatoes in the Netherlands. Unit roots were tested in the Finnish and Dutch price series. Then, an asymmetric error correction model with thresholds was estimated for potato prices between Finland and the Netherlands. Asymmetry was allowed both in short and long-run price transmission. The results suggest that the prices are cointegrated and the arbitrage system is functioning, but with a significant time lag between the Finnish and Dutch potato markets. The price response is also asymmetric in that the Finnish price moves towards a steady state equilibrium faster from above than from below the equilibrium.     

TWO-TIER PRICING FOR MILK: A RE-EXAMINATION

Principal objections to two-tier pricing have centred on administrative complexities and the ‘transparent’ nature of its cost. However, the credibility of two-tier pricing for milk within the European Community is now enhanced by the existence of a quota scheme and by recent levels of budgetary expenditure. Potential features of two-tier pricing are that farm support can be more readily directed at selected recipients and that lowering of market prices for milk relieves consumers from some of the burden of this support. A major attraction is that the existing quota system allows for an immediate ready-made transition. In this paper, two applications are developed. Both allow varying combinations of quota level and support price, but differ in their impact on producers' incomes. Some degree of national flexibility within the Community is also explored.     

Issues relating to Agricultural Pricing Policies and their Analysis in Developing Countries

Agricultural pricing policies in developing countries are often the result of complex interactions between producer, consumer and merchant groups and their relative effectiveness in influencing government decision making. Even within governments, various ministries often have opposing views. In this environment one of the contributions a policy analyst can make is to attempt to quantify the effects of different policy options. This permits a more informed discussion which hopefully leads to better decision-making and an improved incentive environment. Many analyses of agricultural pricing policies have used the standard partial equilibrium analysis where no linkages between commodity markets were considered. In this paper we have considered cross-price effects. Also, we have discussed issues relating to other adjustments/refinements of the standard method so that a practitioner not familiar with the various methods can form an opinion of what the options are and what adjustments may be appropriate for a particular case in question. The adjustments relate to overvaluation of currencies, input price distortions, differences in the degree of distortions between producers and consumers, and variability of border prices. The inclusion of cross-price elasticities was important for assessing production, consumption and trade effects for Argentina, but for the other countries it resulted in only somewhat improved accuracy. The adjustment for exchange rates had a large impact in Egypt and was important for other countries as well. This underlines the importance of exchange rates as key variables for agricultural pricing policies in general. The numbers show that the traditional taxation policies of agricultural products in the sample of developing countries is somewhat less widespread than in the past. These policies, however, continue to favor consumers over producers, with significant losses for some of the latter. The large size of welfare losses, especially compared to efficiency losses, highlights the importance of correcting distorted prices that adversely affect the poorest sections of society. Also, the usual government objective of taxing producers to raise revenues is frequently defeated by the large subsidies provided to consumers. For the partitioner, for whom time is often of the essence, the assessment of welfare effects using the partial equilibrium method may provide reasonably good ‘first cut’ estimates of the order of magnitude of the impact of distortions. But often, these 'base case estimates' can and should be adjusted for a number of possible factors. The analyst needs to determine how important accurate estimates of key variables are to the policy makers; he or she then needs to compare the costs involved in generating or gathering the data and doing the calculations with the benefits of a broader and more accurate analysis of the distortionary effects of the particular case in question.