我国与东盟水产品双边贸易增长因素分析

鉴于我国与东盟水产品的双边贸易额、增长率、市场分布及贸易种类等特点,本文运用修正后的恒定市场份额模型(CMS),对中国与东盟水产品进出口贸易的增长因素进行因素分解和效果分析,认为竞争力因素在中国向东盟出口水产品贸易额增长中发挥了主要效用,其次是需求规模效应,而出口结构的贡献率极低,尤其是产品结构亟需改进;产品需求规模在东盟出口水产品时起到了主要的拉动作用,东盟出口水产品的种类结构适应中国市场是次要推动原因,而竞争力的贡献相对较低。     

浅议我国水产品进出口贸易存在的问题及对策

水产品是我国传统的出口优势产品,我国加入WTO后,水产品进出口贸易发展快速.但我国只是世界水产品生产大国,并不是世界水产品贸易强国,我国水产品的国际竞争力还不够强劲.本文分析了目前困扰我国水产品贸易发展的多种因素.在此基础上,提出了促进水产品贸易发展的对策建议,并指出我国水产品进出口贸易仍然具有一定的增长潜力.     

新冠肺炎疫情下我国农产品出口变化分析

近年来我国农产品出口总体呈上升趋势,水产品、蔬菜、果类及制品是优势出口农产品,且优势农产品出口目标市场稳定。受新冠肺炎疫情影响,我国农产品出口发生了一系列变化,出口额总体有所下降,水产品出口下降幅度较大,蔬菜出口量增价跌。提出稳定贸易基础,打通贸易渠道,拓展农产品出口市场,加大金融支持,扩大承保范围,企业加快转型升级等对策建议。     

中国水产品对日韩出口增长的实证研究

中日韩3国水产品贸易联系紧密,日韩是中国水产品出口的重要市场.本文根据联合国商品贸易数据库2001～2012年的数据,在比较中国水产品对日韩出口现状的前提下,利用CMS模型对中国水产品出口日韩的增长进行实证研究.研究结果表明,日韩市场对水产品需求的增长是促进中国水产品出口的最关键因素,中国水产品对日出口的“产品结构效应”和“综合竞争力效应”高于对韩出口,但对这两个市场出口的“产品竞争力效应”和“交叉效应”不明显.本文在实证研究结果的基础上,提出了相应的政策建议.     

中国水产品出口贸易现状及对策分析——基于省级面板数据的研究

中国是世界上水产品生产和出口最大的国家之一,水产品出口在中国农业乃至国民经济中都占据着重要地位。本文将结合最新数据对中国水产品的出口贸易现状问题进行分析,得出以下结论:中国水产品在国际市场上所占份额不断增加,贸易额逐年增长,且增幅巨大,一直呈现顺差,且有扩大趋势,存在较大的竞争优势,但中国的水产品贸易仍然存在质量不稳定、出口贸易产品结构不合理、出口市场单一、贸易技术壁垒、国际市场竞争激烈的问题。本文将在现状及问题的基础上总结促进中国水产品出口的政策建议。     

入世后我国水产品贸易特征分析

水产品是我国传统的出口优势产品。我国加入WTO后,水产品进出口贸易发展很快。本文分析了加入WTO后我国水产品贸易的特征,指出目前困扰我国水产品贸易发展的多种因素。在此基础上,提出了促进水产品贸易发展的对策建议,并指出我国水产品进出口贸易仍然具有一定的增长潜力。     

中国与RCEP成员国水产品出口的贸易潜力分析——基于拓展的引力模型

RCEP的正式生效使得中国与RCEP各成员国乃至世界的水产品出口贸易迎来新的发展机遇。选取2006—2022年中国与RCEP13个成员国之间的面板数据,在测算对外贸易依存度和水产品贸易竞争力指数的基础上,引入拓展的引力模型分析影响中国对RCEP各成员国水产品出口的影响因素,并依据实证结果测算各国的水产品出口潜力。结果表明,贸易伙伴国的经济规模、人口规模、对外贸易依存度和中国水产品产量及在各贸易伙伴国市场上的贸易竞争力指数都对我国水产品出口贸易有显著的正向作用;除老挝是潜力巨大型、文莱是潜力再造型外,其余国家均为潜力开拓型,说明我国水产品对RCEP国家出口贸易已有一定的基础,且依然存在较大潜力空间可供开拓。     

绿色壁垒对中日水产品贸易的实证研究

自加入WTO以来,我国的水产品出口已连续十年稳居世界第一。但近年来,由于一些发达国家通过设置种种绿色壁垒,提高对我国出口产品的技术、检验检疫标准,对我国的水产品出口造成了很大的冲击。因此,本文主要以中日水产品贸易为例,引入引力模型实证分析绿色壁垒对我国水产出口的影响,并提出相应对策。     

对我国水产品出口的几点思考

通过对历年来我国水产品的总产量、出口数量、创汇情况和出口市场结构的分析,指出了水产品出口贸易现状中存在的问题,并提出可行的解决方法:一是通过水产品标准化体系建设,提升水产品质量;二是通过深加工,提高水产品的附加值;三是通过CI系统,实施品牌战略;四是开拓多元化国际销售市场,减少贸易风险。     

日本水产品出口的历史、现状及启示

日本是水产品的消费和进口大国,相比而言其水产品的出口数量少、出口市场规模小。近几年受国内水产品消费结构变化、政府出口促进政策的影响,日本水产品出口呈现数量扩大、出口目标市场多元化的趋势。日本是我国传统的水产品出口大国,同时我国也在积极扩大欧美市场,可能在某些产品和出口目标市场与日本产生竞争,因此,研究日本水产品出口市场的变化,对我国水产品顺利出口到日本及进入日本以外的国际市场,具有重要的参考价值和现实意义。     

世界板栗的贸易格局分析

世界板栗的生产和出口都比较集中,中国、韩国、意大利和土耳其既是主要生产国同时也是主要出口国,这四个国家的年出口量占世界的90%以上。板栗贸易具有明显的地域性,不同国家板栗出口价格差异明显。我国是世界板栗的最大出口国,研究世界板栗进出口贸易格局,分析国际市场的需求和竞争特点,有利于保持和发展我国这一传统产品在国际市场上的竞争力。     

世界蘑菇的贸易动向分析

世界蘑菇的生产和贸易主要集中在亚洲、欧洲与北美洲,我国、荷兰、法国等主产国同时也是重要的蘑菇出口国。世界蘑菇贸易以蘑菇罐头为主,保鲜蘑菇和干制蘑菇的贸易量较少。世界蘑菇罐头出口贸易集中度较高,我国与荷兰在蘑菇罐头出口贸易中占据绝对主导地位,且两国在美国市场上存在激烈的竞争。研究世界蘑菇的进出口贸易动向,有利于了解我国蘑菇出口面临的国际市场环境。     

Markups,import competition and exporting

This paper analyses the relationship between markups and international trade at the firm level using a large sample of French manufacturing firms for the period 1995–2007. In particular, the paper investigates the effect of increasing import competition from China on firms' price–cost margins and the way in which exporting interacts with this effect. The results show robust evidence that firms in more direct competition with Chinese imports decrease their markups. However, firms that become exporters experience a smaller reduction in their price–cost margins. Consistent with these findings, the results also show that firms facing tougher competition from China are more likely to start exporting to avoid such competitive pressures.     

The role of processing trade in exporters' responses to exchange rate: Evidence from China

Processing trade is an important exporting mode for many countries developed by the export-oriented industrialisation such as 1960s Japan, 1990s Korea and 2000s China. Exporters who rely on processing trade for foreign profits do not enjoy much market power, and hence care more about exchange rate changes. We develop a model to illustrate how processing trade affects exporters' responses to exchange rate fluctuations. The model suggests that the elasticity of export price with respect to exchange rate for processing-trade exporters is greater than that of the ordinary-trade exporters, while the elasticity of export quantity of processing-trade exporters is smaller compared to their ordinary-trade counterparts. Most developing countries' governments offer processing-trade exporters better tax/tariff reduction policy to encourage exporting, which grants processing-trade exporters additional advantage to adjust more on export price and less on quantity when facing changes in exchange rate and therefore causes their different responses to exchange rate fluctuations. We find strong empirical supports by studying the data from China, which is the largest developing country and biggest processing-trade exporter.     

Firms’ export decisions—fixed trade costs and the size of the export market

This article presents a model of international trade under monopolistic competition. In the increasing returns sector firms face fixed, in addition to variable, trade costs, and both exporters and non-exporters may coexist. Exporters benefit from access to large foreign markets, thus a small country has a higher share of exporting firms than a large one. In contrast to standard models, the increasing returns sector will be more open in a small country than in a large one, and a small country may be a net exporter of such commodities, despite the disadvantage of a smaller home market.     

Time consistent export quotas in an oligopolistic world market

We investigate the strategic behavior between exporting countries that face endogenous terms of trade on the world market. In a non-cooperative setting, if production decisions occur before consumption decisions, the ex-ante optimal export quota is not time consistent as the ex-post elasticity of the residual foreign import demand curve is lower than the ex-ante elasticity. However, we show that the exporters’ inability to irrevocably commit to their quota may be welfare superior to the precommitment solution. If exporters can sell forward a proportion of their exports before production decisions are made, they will do so even though, in equilibrium, it may decrease welfare compared to a situation in which forward markets do not exist. Moreover, the equilibrium with forward markets is welfare inferior to the commitment equilibrium for exporters.     

A Firm-level Examination of the Exports Puzzle: Why East Asian Exports Didn't Increase After the 1997–1998 Financial Crisis

We analyse a detailed panel dataset on Indonesian manufacturing firms to characterise the exports puzzle: the surprising absence of export-led growth after the massive currency devaluation during the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. Our results show that, consistent with trade theory predictions following better terms of trade, entry into export markets increased dramatically. In conflict with the same predictions, however, many pre-crisis exporters quit exporting. Thus stagnant export growth cannot be attributable to a lack of entrepreneurial ambition or activity amongst would-be exporters. Rather, it apparently resulted from constraints prohibiting continued exporting by pre-crisis exporters. Managerial reports of perceived constraints reveal little about why so many firms ceased exporting. However, ‘better’ firms, as proxied by foreign ownership, involvement in research and development, or investment in training, were more likely to continue exporting post-crisis.     

Power laws in firm size and openness to trade: Measurement and implications

Existing estimates of power laws in firm size typically ignore the impact of international trade. Using a simple theoretical framework, we show that international trade systematically affects the distribution of firm size: the power law exponent among exporting firms should be strictly lower in absolute value than the power law exponent among non-exporting firms. We use a dataset of French firms to demonstrate that this prediction is strongly supported by the data, both for the economy as a whole and at the industry level. Furthermore, the differences between power law coefficients for exporters and non-exporters are larger in sectors that are more open to trade. While estimates of power law exponents have been used to pin down parameters in theoretical and quantitative models, our analysis implies that the existing estimates are systematically lower than the true values. We propose two simple ways of estimating power law parameters that take explicit account of exporting behavior.     

A league of their own: services exporters – a developing country perspective

This paper provides a firm-level portrait of services exporters along with goods exporters in a developing country. Current findings of firm-level services trade literature suggest that the stylized facts of goods trade apply to services trade as well for a set of developed countries. This paper investigates if similar results hold for a developing country, Turkey, for the period 2003–2008. Most results lend support to the evidence found in the previous literature. However, the analysis of Turkish data shows that firms that export both goods and services are larger than those exporting goods or services only while multinationals that sell only goods are bigger than multinationals exporting both goods and services or those exporting only services.     

碳关税征收对双边贸易的预期影响——基于中美两个碳经济大国的微观分析方法

文章用微观经济分析方法,基于中美两个碳经济大国的视角分析了碳关税的征收对双边贸易的预期影响。分析结果为:美国征收碳关税,短期内会由于美国进口需求减少和其他不被施加碳关税国家的价格优势导致中国出口量下降;长期中出口商需要提高价格来补偿技术投入的支出,国际价格上涨将进一步导致需求降低,贸易量减少;同时碳关税征收将导致出口国贸易条件恶化,社会福利损失;而进口国可能由于贸易条件的改善在短期内获得收益。