考虑离岛地区出行需求特征的需求响应式公交运营优化

针对偏远离岛地区公交运营收益低、当地居民出行难的问题,考虑该地区的出行需求空间上分布过疏、时间上需求波动性较大、且高支付意愿高质量服务需求无法被满足等特性,提出需求响应式公交运营模式,并将多条存在部分共线的公交线路进行联合优化。为此,建立了双层规划模型,其中上层模型为公交公司运营决策模型,以公交公司总利润最大为目标,以乘客对需求响应式公交的支付意愿作为约束条件,对公交公司在不同时间窗下的发班频率、所需车辆数及乘客所需支付票价进行联合优化;下层模型为乘客出行方式选择模型,通过对乘客出行方式的选择行为进行分析,基于Logit模型确定选择需求响应式公交出行需求站点的乘客人数。最后,以浙江宁波梅山岛为例进行实证分析。通过比较优化方案和现状下的公交公司收益以及乘客出行时间成本,验证了提出的需求响应式公交运营模式以及双层规划模型的有效性。     

客运枢纽主导交通方式与常规公交协调模型

分析了主导交通方式换乘乘客到达的时变特征,包括常规公交枢纽站点客流组成、换乘客流时变特征,以换乘乘客时间费用最小为目标,以建立了综合客运枢纽主导交通方式与常规公交协调调度模型,通过模型求解可得到常规公交的发车间隔和车辆配置情况,合理配置资源,及时有效的疏散不同时段内主导交通方式到达乘客。     

公交实时信息化服务对乘客出行行为意向影响

为了解城市公交信息化服务对公交乘客出行方式转移的影响,以上海市杨浦区为例,进行关于公交信息化服务下乘客出行方式转移的调查,获取个人属性、公交出行经历、公交出行评价、出行方式转移意向以及公交信息服务需求等信息。从公交信息使用者角度,重点关注公交信息化服务对乘客出行方式转移的影响,分别构建信息化服务情境下(公交到站时间与计划出发时间相差过大和车辆未在提示的时间内到达)的公交出行方式转移二项logit模型。模型结果表明:乘客平均候车时间、是否经常使用公交到站服务、是否有道路拥挤车辆未按时进站等原因而产生出行延误的经历、公交信息准确性评价与是否有必要提示同公交线路连续班次的到站时间等因素对不同情景下的乘客出行方式转移具有显著影响。     

基于高峰期轻轨通勤者出行成本探讨轻轨发车频率

在国家政策的推动下,轨道交通成为未来城市公共交通发展的主要方向.轻轨运营公司如何根据客流量调整发车频率降低出行者的出行成本成为现在研究的热点问题.本文基于Vickrey提出的瓶颈模型,通过对重庆轻轨三号线的实证调研,采用多起点单讫点模型计算早高峰出行者的出行成本,得出与经典瓶颈模型假设不同的结果,并根据结果对轨道交通运营者如何调整发车频率做出建议.     

基于SEM的公交乘客满意指数模型及实证分析

公共交通是公共基础性服务的组成部分,对居民的日常生活、城市的经济发展有着重要的影响。而公交作为居民出行常选用的公共交通工具,其服务质量好坏影响居民的出行选择。借鉴美国顾客满意指数(ACSI)模型,基于SEM法构建公交乘客满意指数(BPSI)模型,并运用调查获取的公交乘客满意度数据分别对BPSI模型、ACSI模型进行拟合与评价,线性结构方程模型主要评价指标的数值表明,BPSI模型较ACSI模型的数据拟合效果更优。     

考虑车辆到站可靠性的城市公交服务时刻表设计

研究了以降低出行乘客在公交站点等待时间不确定性,提高公交行车时刻表准确度为目的,关于公交线路计时点和用于缓冲车辆到站时间波动的松弛时间的设计问题。研究中以系统总成本最低为优化目标,建立以计时点和松弛时间为决策变量的模型,并对该模型设计算例进行检验和分析。计时点与松弛时间的合理设置有利于降低运营成本,在减少乘客等待时间的基础上,提高车辆的到站准时性和可靠性。     

深圳市公交票价水平评估及改善对策研究

票价是公交行业一切规制政策的基础。目前,国内公交都实行低于成本的票价政策,有利于降低乘客出行费用,但同时也导致了行业发展过程中的市场机制失灵、财政补贴持续增加等一系列问题。如何建立合适的价格体系,保证企业承担公益性任务和实现自身经济目标相统一,是当下公交行业需要重点讨论和研究的问题之一。     

以乘客需求为基础的公交内饰设计分析

以常规单层单厢公交车为例,在简要阐述公交出行和公交内饰发展的基础上,对基于乘客需求的公交内饰设计现状以及造成乘客需求不良体验的原因进行分析探讨,并基于乘客的安全性、人机性、舒适性需求,提出科学合理的公交内饰设计对策,以供业内人士参考和借鉴。     

快速公交系统发车频率的仿真优化研究

车辆的发车频率是影响快速公交系统运行效率的重要因素。文章以Arena10.0为平台,建立普通车型和长车型的仿真模型,通过系统仿真,优化发车频率。实验表明,长车型和普通车型的最佳发车频率分别为2.6分钟/辆和2分钟/辆。该建模方法和结论对BRT系统运行具有参考意义。     

基于M/G/C/C状态依赖排队模型的通道能力计算

分析了乘客走行特性与通道服务容量的关系,基于M/G/C/C状态依赖排队模型建立了通道通过能力计算的非线性最优化模型,对模型的适应范围及其有效性进行了分析,利用matlab工具实现了基于黄金分割法的模型求解。通过实例验证了模型和算法的有效性,并对通道宽度、长度与通道最大通过能力的影响关系进行了分析。     

Regulatory reform and rural bus service: Evidence from South Dakota

The 1982 Bus Regulatory Reform Act has failed to halt the decline of South Dakota intercity bus services. By 1984 there were fewer departures, fewer carriers, and fewer served communities than at any time in the preceding 10 yr. Proponents hoped the act would promote financial viability in an industry subject to a downward spiral of increased costs and decreased revenues. This claim was investigated by including variables that reflected different aspects of decision-making in a binary logit model to predict the abandonment probability of a community. Before deregulation the model suggested that abandonment decisions were based on aggressive criteria that aimed to free carriers from the downward spiral of costs and revenues. Following deregulation carriers apparently reverted to behavior that perpetuates this decline. The continued operation of existing processes of change will produce a reduced network of bus travel opportunities with little or no service to rural communities. The ineffectiveness of the present, general reforms strengthens the imperative to design specific mobility policies for rural America.     

Transportation cost changes with statewide school district consolidation

This article studies the relationship between school district size and bus transportation costs, and estimates the change in such costs when a statewide policy of consolidation is pursued. To explore this relationship, we develop a multiple-objective model and solution procedure that combines a geographic aggregation and bus routing heuristic to generate consolidation scenarios. The heuristic was developed to explicitly consider efficiency, effectiveness, and equity objectives, and can be applied in both urban and rural states. The scenarios will generate average statewide bus transportation costs. As applied to the State of Iowa, within the legislature's proposed range of consolidation of 500-1000 students, it was found that transportation operational and capital cost increases range from 0.6 to 10.6 percent and 0.7 to 7.7 percent, respectively.     

Schedule jockeying and route swamping: bus markets in Britain need kerb rights

The experience of British bus deregulation has resulted in less on-the-road competition than anticipated, and a high degree of industry concentration We argue that the specific form of deregulation in Britain has created a property rights problem in the cultivation of passenger congregations at the kerb. The result has been schedule jockeying and route swamping . From a property rights perspective, the disappointing results can be seen as a commons problem. A nuanced approach to property rights at bus stops, permitting scheduled service to appropriate its investment in cultivating passenger congregations, and allowing freewheeling jitneys to compete on the route, could bring the benefits that many had expected from deregulation.     

汽车客运站建设项目客流量预测分析

当前,我国的公路建设取得了显著的成就,建设了很多高等级的公路,促进了我国公路交通事业的跨越性发展。但是,作为配套设施的汽车客运站建设却跟不上我国公路建设的步伐,发展相对滞后,我国的汽车客运站建设相关的可行性研究以及指标体系还不够完善,这在一定程度上阻碍了我国交通业的发展。因此,研究客运站建设的可行性是很有必要的。汽车客运站建设的可行性研究课题中涉及的内容比较多,本文从客运站的运量入手展开研究。     

客运专线旅客服务质量评价体系研究

未来客运专线运输市场将面对日益激烈的市场竞争和旅客不断提升的、高质量的服务需求,为了获得持续稳定的客流,必须不断提升服务水平。文章以既有线客运服务系统为基础,从旅客的角度出发,结合航空旅客服务系统,构建了客运专线服务质量评价体系,为判别客运专线服务质量提供了一种可行方法。     

A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL PASSENGER DEMAND FOR THE STATE RAILWAY OF THAILAND

This paper presents a time series regression model to estimate annual passenger demand for the State Railway of Thailand (SRT). The model was developed for a time period of 15 years (1974–1988), incorporating such variables as the country's gross domestic product (GDP), SRT passenger fares, competing intercity bus fares, and a dummy variable of the Fifth National Five Year Plan advocating a railway-favored modal shift policy. This simple but useful model analysis estimated the demand elasticities as: 0.907 with respect to real GDP; -0.970 with respect to real SRT fare; and 0.808 with respect to real bus fare. Remarkable manufacturing-oriented economic development of Thailand in recent years played an important part in recent SRT demand increases. As the relatively high own and cross fare elasticity estimates imply, the SRT is concerned about demand loss to competing intercity bus services, and has thus been keeping fare levels low. The model analysis also estimated a demand gain of 12.3% due to the modal shift policy during the Fifth Plan period, suggesting effectiveness of the policy.     

基于公路快速客运服务系统组合评价方法的研究

现行主要评价方法单独运用于该模型体现出各种不足。如模糊综合评判法,其评价过程大量应用了人的主观判断,因而各因素权重可靠性需做进一步分析。而层次分析法则能较好的解决选取因素的权重分配的主观性问题。本文将层次分析法(AHP)和模糊评价法有效结合,运用于公路快速客运系统评价体系中。使用AHP法确定评价体系中各指标的权重,运用模糊评价方法建立公路快速客运系统评价模型,对公路快速客运系统进行综合评价。     

“云计算”市场分析及应用展望

“云计算”的出现宣告了低成本提供超级计算时代的到来。然而在“云计算”时代即将来临的时候又有几个人真正了解“云计算”，“云计算”到底能给我们带来什么？文章从“云计算”产生的背景、定义、特点、面临的挑战及前景展望作陈述。     

Market response to changes in attributes of a long-distance passenger rail service

This paper reports on the development of a model designed to predict market response to a range of service alternatives that could be offered by an Australian long-distance passenger rail service known as the Indian Pacific. The approach is based on an aggregate version of the multinomial logit choice model using stated-preference data. Details of the model's specification and estimation are presented and the predictive ability and implications of the model are discussed.