Semi-quantitative risk assessment method for product management

The workshop presented a semi-quantitative risk assessment technique that can be used to judge the total risk on all undesired consequences/events for a product manufacturing operation. The technique requires an experienced team to judge risk utilizing a numerical rating system that, although arbitrarily chosen, is self consistent and provides a relative assessment of product manufacturing risk. Once calculated, the risk is compared to the product's net income for making risk management and product planning decisions. The workshop included an exercise where all participants could try the technique.     

The Design Research Society and Emerging Themes in Design Research*

This paper outlines the role of the Design Research Society (DRS) and explores some of the emerging trends in design research as a field of academic inquiry through its biennial conferences. In doing so it gives some insight into the areas of research which might inform future studies from a perspective of an organization that seeks to support the peer review process both directly and indirectly through conferences and events, journal editing, and as a nominating body for national and international research evaluation panels.     

The validity and value of peer assessment using adaptive comparative judgement in design driven practical education

This paper presents the response of the technology teacher education programmes at the University of Limerick to the assessment challenge created by the shift in philosophy of the Irish national curriculum from a craft-based focus to design-driven education. This study observes two first year modules of the undergraduate programmes that focused on the development of subject knowledge and practical craft skills. Broadening the educational experience and perspective of students to include design based aptitudes demanded a clear aligning of educational approaches with learning outcomes. As design is a complex iterative learning process it requires a dynamic assessment tool to facilitate and capture the process. Considering the critical role of assessment in the learning process, the study explored the relevance of individual student-defined assessment criteria and the validity of holistic professional judgement in assessing capability within a design activity. The kernel of the paper centres on the capacity of assessment criteria to change in response to how students align their work with evidence of capability. The approach also supported peer assessment, where student-generated performance ranks provided an insight into not only how effectively they evidenced capability but also to what extent their peers valued it. The study investigated the performance of 137 undergraduate teachers during an activity focusing on the development of design, processing and craft skills. The study validates the use of adaptive comparative judgement as a model of assessment by identifying a moderate to strong relationship with performance scores obtained by two different methods of assessment. The findings also present evidence of capability beyond the traditional measures. Level of engagement, diversity, and problem solving were also identified as significant results of the approach taken. The strength of this paper centres on the capacity of student-defined criterion assessment to evidence learning, and concludes by presenting a valid and reliable holistic assessment supported by comparative judgements.     

Flexible Product Development: Building Agility for Changing Markets by Preston G. Smith

Books reviewed in this issue:

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  Flexible Product Development: Building Agility for Changing Markets
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  The Leader's Guide to Lateral Thinking Skills: Unlocking the Creativity and Innovation in You and Your Team
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  Service Is Front Stage: Positioning Services for Value Advantage
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  Involving Customers in New Service Development
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  Project Sponsorship: Achieving Management Commitment for Project Success

Please note that the editor in chief of the Journal of Product Innovation Management (JPIM) , Anthony Di Benedetto, was solely responsible for all editorial work on the first book review, since this is an assessment of the newest book by JPIM 's book review editor, Preston Smith. To assure objectivity in the review process, Di Benedetto identified the reviewer, solicited and edited the review, and submitted the accepted review directly to the publisher. Smith did not see the review until it was completed and accepted for publication.     

Benefits and costs of food safety regulation

This paper begins with a review of the concepts and methods that can be used to quantify the benefits and costs of food safety regulations. On the cost side, where research is only beginning to emerge, this paper also provides an analytical framework for measurement of the costs of statutory regulations in the form of design and performance standards. This paper also discusses the use and limitations of currently available benefit and cost information for quantitative regulatory impact assessment, using the assessment of the mandatory HACCP and pathogen reduction regulations in the United States as an example. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research on quantifying benefits and costs of food safety regulations.     

江浙区域技术创新效率比较分析

本文以江浙区域技术创新的“效率悖论”为切入点,提出区域技术创新所引致的效率涵盖了区域技术创新的市场效率和社会效率。在分析和比较江浙区域技术创新模式特点的基础上,揭示了其区域创新效率的差异,并解释了“效率悖论”。笔者认为,创新收益分配机制(市场机制)的完善、区域技术创新网络的建设,以及政府对区域创新的促进(制度供给和制度创新)可以提升区域技术创新效率。     

How a patent conflict affects industrial R&D Management

The authors relate and analyse the case of a long-running patent conflict between two very large multinational firms in the synthetic fibre business - AKZO and Du Pont. The subject of the conflict was a new fibre of the aramid dass. They show that the case reveals deficiencies in international patent law in need of correction.
The analysis is conducted with the aid of social network theory applied to pub-lished information and data supplied by AKZO and other sources. The theory takes as its starting point that when a number of related functional groups unite behind a common and vital interest the pursuit of this interest becomes virtually unstoppable. In this case the crucial social network was formed first within AKZO and then extended outside to include politicians and government. It propelled the firm to pursue to the end attempts to by-pass a patent position held by Du Pont.
The paper reveals that an apparently strong patent position can actually help a rival to circumvent it. This defect in the patent law is leading companies to avoid patenting and to rely instead on secrecy alone. The authors believe that this will act against the public interest, for exam-ple, by preventing thorough public assessment of a new technology before it is implemented. They argue for changes in the patent law to reduce this risk.     

Defining technology and technological education: A crisis,or cause for celebration?

This paper originated from a two-year technological education teacher development project at the Faculty of Education, The University of Western Ontario. The authors searched for an understanding of technology and technological education through traditional scholarly means, i.e., a literature review, and through an action research venture that, it was thought, would reveal the parameters of ‘technology’. The paper, beyond helping to give the authors and the reader a better understanding of what it means to define an elusive concept, serves to give technology educators a conceptual starting point from which to build insight into the elements of their life's work. The function and form of the paper evolved from the project process. They [the function and form] were determined by the nature of and ambiguities associated with technology. The reader is invited, for example, to consider the historical, social, cultural, and philosophical dimensions of technology. Rather than draw parallels about technology from those diverse disciplines, a daunting task, the paper charts a terrain from which investigators who seek a definition of technology and a framework for the subsequent study of technology, might get their bearings. The paper includes approaches to defining technology, a literature review, a comparison of science and technology, and an epilogue. While a definition is offered as part of the epilogue, the larger purpose of the paper is to improve one's understanding of an ubiquitous phenomenon. The central question of the ongoing debate, in Ontario and elsewhere, about the role and direction of technological education, is inherent in the paper and in the mandate of the teacher development project. What is technology and where and in what form does it belong in the curriculum of the schools?     

Sources of Durable Competitive Advantage in New Products

In this article, Michael Lawless and Robert Fisher propose a conceptual framework for analyzing durable sources of competitive advantage for new products. They assess various components of new product introduction strategies in terms of their degrees of competitive "imitability" (i.e., the ease with which competitors can imitate). The less imitable the component, the more durable the profits it generates. The authors identify seven strategic components based on bodies of research in strategy and promotion, distribution and firm characteristics. By selectively managing these components, an innovating firm can affect a new product's imitability and the duration of returns. Using a "resource mobility" perspective, the authors develop propositions that should lead to a more systematic focus on long-term profits in new product introductions.     

Nutritional considerations in project planning

This paper discusses procedures for "ex ante" assessment of likely nutritional effects of development projects. Reported are results of 1 field trial in the Philippines of the "ex ante" assessment procedure in terms of: its feasibility and timeliness and the recommendations for project design that can be made and their influence. In the procedure described, emphasis is placed on assessing likely direct effects--through income, environmental changes and access to services. Indirect effects through food output and prices are assessed qualitatievly. 2 primary questions are addressed in the "ex ante" assessment: 1) who is to benefit directly from the project, in relation to their need (measured in terms of nutrition) and 2) is there reason to suppose that these benefits will not improve their nutrition? The procedure began with an initial assessment to identify the main issues based on reviewing existing data and a short field visit; since there was insufficient information, a rapid nutrition survey was conducted and analyzed; recommendations for project design were made within the necessary time for inclusion. The assessment of the large-scale development project in the Philippines indicates priority to remote areas, small farmers and subsistence fishermen. It is concluded that production-oriented components (e.g., agricultural and infrastructure development) of the project appear likely to improve nutrition insofar as they reach the priority groups defiend above. There is little reason to believe that increased income will not improve nutrition. Finally, there is evidence that an intervention to improve water supply is likely to be effective. Limitations of the procedure are that the assessment is limitied to direct, microlevel effects; long-term influences on nutrition, through changes in the overall economy of the area, are not assessed. Also, the data used cannot easily quantify expected effects on nutrition of project participants. Future application of such procedures are seen to be important if they can be fully integrated with the overall project planning.     

Scientific research evaluation: a review of methods and various contexts of their application

The author has conducted a critical review of methods for evaluating R and D, focussing on levels above the individual project or researcher. Methods are classified as peer review, interview and questionnaire, qualitative methods, and case studies. The author reviews their methodological strengths and weaknesses, the types of criteria applied (eg internal or external) in judging their values, and the uses to which the results of the evaluations are put, especially in policy-making.
She concludes that at the level considered evaluations have come to stay, but she can find no accepted rationale guiding the choice of method for a particular purpose or circumstance. Caution is therefore needed in selecting methods. She points out the need for empirical study of the effects of such evaluations.     

An investigation into the effect of systematic design methods in craft,design and technology (CDT)

This paper has grown out of a long standing personal concern that the current approaches to design teaching are too narrowly based and that they can distort the very activity that they set out to encourage. A survey of the comments made in Examiner's Reports of pupil's work in public design examinations during 1986 & 1987 provides some insight into the difficulties that pupils experienced in carrying out their design activities.Design activity in schools developed from the beginnings initiated by the curriculum development projects of the late 1960's and early 1970's. These put forward methodical approaches to designing which have become widely used in UK secondary schools and which are now firmly embedded in the publications and project assessment framework of the current national examinations.The present study suggests that, while these methodical approaches clearly work, they imply a logical progression of thought which does not necessarily parallel the pattern of human thinking. It is recognised that pupil's design folios written up at the end of a project can be made to describe a logical, systematic procedure which has more to do with the assessment framework than the actual developments of design ideas during the project. Indeed, teachers and candidates were being actively encouraged to base their work on these structured frameworks:The actual style and quality of the folder presentation is also important. This is particularly so when working to a detailed mark scheme. Certainly it is easier to mark a folder which broadly follows the pattern of the mark scheme than one which is very erratic. Teachers are advised as to the advantages of using the mark scheme as a teaching tool and as a guide for folder presentation. NEA, 1986.Finally, the paper examines some more recent developments in the procedural models of design activity and the way in which professional designers approach their work. These insights provide an indication of the way forward for school design work and its assessment.     

An extension to a DEA support system used for assessing R&D projects

This paper describes an extension to the data envelopment analysis (DEA) support system that has been used for the assessment, rating, and ranking of diverse portfolios of research and development (R&D) projects at Lucent Technologies. The approach is illustrated through its application to a large portfolio of R&D projects considered by Lucent's Advanced Technologies Group. The method proceeds by first stratifying the portfolio into comparably efficient groups of projects through the construction of a series of efficient DEA frontiers, and then by lexicographically ranking each project within these groups relative to DEA-based contextual attractiveness measures calculated from the different partitions. The advantages to this approach are provided not only from the perspective of the specific project rankings that are produced but also from the broader managerial insights that can be derived from any resulting differences between officially sanctioned, quantitative decision-making procedures, and the quality of the decisions that have actually been made by managers.     

平台信息披露、信用评级对P2P平台融资成功率影响研究

平台信息披露与信用评级是影响出资人意愿,进而影响P2P平台融资成功率的重要因素。本文综合考虑了平台、出资人、借款人三方的相互影响,并以中国第一家P2P借贷平台网站--拍拍贷在2014年1～12月的真实交易数据为样本,研究P2P平台的融资成功率影响因素。研究发现：借款详情描述字数越多,融资成功率越低,这也验证了出资人存在“懒人效应”。借款金额、利率、期限以及历史失败次数均会降低融资成功率。而历史成功次数、性别、工作、平台评级、认证均与融资成功率呈显著的正向关系。其中年龄与融资成功率没有直接关系。在所有影响因素中,平台评级在所有促进融资成功的变量中系数最大。本文研究对规范P2P平台,提高平台融资成功率具有意义。     

品牌个性匹配对品牌延伸态度影响研究——基于感知匹配度内涵的分析

在品牌管理的实践中,很多具有鲜明品牌个性的品牌延伸到了与原来的产品品类完全不相关的领域。但是,由于现有的感知匹配度建构中并不包含品牌个性的匹配,因而使得当前的理论很难解释营销实践中基于品牌个性的远距离品牌延伸。本文通过理论推演,提出了在感知匹配度中有必要引入品牌个性与形象的匹配,并通过实验研究和验证性因子分析,实证地揭示了品牌个性匹配对消费者品牌延伸评价具有显著的影响,从而提出了感知匹配度的三维度建构及其概念内涵。     

Book Reviews

Our coverage opens with a review of the fourth edition of C. Merle Crawford's book, which continues the comprehensive coverage of previous editions while adding important topics. The next review discusses the second edition of Robert Cooper's book. This new book updates his exposition of success and failure determinants, and reemphasizes the utility of a stage-gate development process. The third review comments on a long-term study of five innovative high technology firms. The review identifies five critical lessons for other similar firms. This is followed by the positive review of a recent book co-authored by one of the book review editors. Appropriately, this review was managed by Thomas Hustad, without any contact with its authors. The fifth review examines a book that combines two modern, popular management tools. The reviewer finds that these can be useful for product developers. Next, another reviewer comments favorably on a recent textbook that emphasizes the value creation process associated with effective product development and management practices. The seventh describes a book that examines and contrasts international practices. Although the material comes from a 1990 conference, our reviewer concludes that it still provides important lessons. The eighth review covers a strategy book. The book has some useful information but will be of limited help to most practitioners. The ninth review discusses a book about change and the need for organizational modification. Our reviewer feels it is of limited value to practitioners but will be of interest to academics. The reviews conclude with brief notes about three other books.     

供应链金融融资模式下中小企业信用风险评估——以汽车行业实证研究为例

本文从中小企业综合实力、核心企业资信状况、融资项的资产状况、供应链关系状况及宏观经济环境五个方面初步构建供应链金融融资模式下中小企业信用风险指标体系,并通过专家打分法、相关性分析及鉴别性分析等方法解决指标体系中存在的非重要性及指标内容相互覆盖的问题,得到具有全面性与可操作性的中小企业信用风险评价指标体系;运用熵值法对中小企业进行信用等级评级,解决以往学者采取评级方法时具有的主观性缺陷;实证研究以汽车行业为例,得出在供应链金融融资模式下60%中小企业信用等级将得到上升的结论,有助于从中小企业信用风险评估角度缓解中小企业融资难问题。     

Follow the leader (or not): The influence of peer CEOs’ characteristics on interorganizational imitation

Research Summary: We argue that because charisma and narcissism represent widely held prototypes of effective and ineffective forms of leadership, respectively, the likelihood that a focal firm will imitate the practices of its peer firms is affected by these peer firms’ CEO characteristics. We theorize that peer firm CEO charisma enhances the focal firm’s imitation of peer firms’ behaviors, while peer firm CEO narcissism diminishes it. We further posit that the uncertainty of the context affects these imitation processes: industry dynamism and prior experience in a given strategic domain, respectively, strengthens and dampens focal firms’ susceptibility to these peer CEOs’ attributes. We test and find support for these ideas using a longitudinal sample of Fortune 500 firms in two distinct domains, corporate strategy and corporate social responsibility. Managerial Summary: When companies are uncertain about the costs and benefits of strategic actions this may lead them to imitate the actions of peer companies. But given the uncertainty, the challenge for executives is: which companies to emulate and which to ignore? In a sample of Fortune 500 companies, we find that the charisma or narcissism of a peer company’s CEO positively or negatively influences, respectively, the degree to which the peer company’s strategic actions are imitated. We reason that this is because these particular CEO attributes are widely believed to drive leadership effectiveness or ineffectiveness, respectively. We also find that the effects of these CEO characteristics on imitation are stronger in dynamic industry environments and weaker for companies that already have experience with the given strategy.     

On the Assessment of Default Risk in Commercial Mortgage Lending

This paper takes an initial step toward the development of an empirically-based model of default risk assessment in the commercial mortgage market. A review of existing empirical studies of residential mortgage and commercial loan default provides evidence for appropriate model specification and estimation. A simple default risk model for commercial mortgages is then developed based upon the generalized default risk models of Jackson and Kaserman [1980] and Vandell [1981]. The model is then examined for its ability to successfully handle a variety of situations and used to test the validity of traditional ratio analysis "rules-of-thumb" employed in commercial lending. Ratio tests are found generally to be inconsistent with an objective of constraining default risk below some maximum. Finally, a modified ratio analysis consistent with the model and with a constrained default risk strategy is introduced.