化纤检测标准中置信区间的应用

置信区间在化纤检测标准中的应用处于刚刚起步的阶段。笔者在本文中对如何在化纤检测标准中应用置信区间来提升纺织行业的检测水平进行了详细的阐述,并建议纺织生产企业、检测机构引入该方法,这将有利于相关部门提高检测的科学性、合理性,正确反映产品的性能,又可节约检测成本。     

基于区间数的后勤装备采购决策方法研究

基于区间数的可能度及相离度理论建立了后勤装备采购的不确定多属性决策模型,以区间数的形式综合考虑决策指标权重及指标值,更多地保留了决策信息,使评价结果更为客观、真实可靠,并结合案例,讨论了运用该决策模型进行决策的方法和详细步骤。     

一种不确定信息进行推理的人工智能评价系统

本论文论述了一种不确定信息进行推理的人工智能评价系统的实现数学模型,通过用控制变量法和等效替换法来处理不确定信息。     

An investigation of transformation-based prediction interval for the Weibull median life

Statistical inference based on the Weibull distribution, a distribution widely used in reliability and survival analysis, is usually difficult as it often involves numerical computation and approximation. However, this distribution can be transformed to near-normality by a simple power transformation. Based on this transformation, a prediction interval (PI) for its median can be easily constructed through an inverse transformation. The procedure for selecting the best power transformation through minimizing Kullback-Leibler information is described. The property of this transformation-based PI is investigated. Simple correction factors are also proposed. It is shown that the transformation-based PI with corrections performs well, irrespective of the sample size and parameter values. Simulation results show that the new PI generally outperforms the existing PI. Numerical examples are given for illustration.     

A DISTRIBUTION–FREE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN QUANTILES WITH CENSORED DATA

Abstract. In the context of a two–sample problem, a confidence interval for the difference of appropriate quantiles of the two survival distributions is described. This method is especially useful when the data include some right–censored observations. A relevant mathematical result is proved.     

乡村旅游发展模式研究

乡村旅游作为一种新兴的旅游消费方式,是农业生产与旅游活动的有机结合。文章首先对乡村旅游的涵义进行了探讨,并总结出乡村旅游的特点,阐述了发展乡村旅游业对于发展农村经济和旅游业的意义。在此基础上,提出了乡村旅游发展模式的初步建议。     

改进的灰色电力负荷预测研究——基于粒子群算法和BP神经网络

本文对于灰色预测模型的改进,分别从优化初值和改进模型等方面进行,对模型的改进主要通过建立等维新息预测模型、灰色粒子群组合预测模型和灰色BP神经网络组合预测模型来实现。     

Comparisons of Bayesian estimation procedures for two-way contingency tables without interaction

Bayesian and empirical Bayesian estimation methods are reviewed and proposed for the row and column parameters in two-way Contingency tables without interaction. Rasch's multiplicative Poisson model for misreadings is discussed in an example. The case is treated where assumptions of exchangeability are reasonable a priori for the unknown parameters. Two different types of prior distributions are compared, It appears that gamma priors yield more tractable results than lognormal priors.     

Comparison of Hypothesis Testing and Bayesian Model Selection

The main goal of both Bayesian model selection and classical hypotheses testing is to make inferences with respect to the state of affairs in a population of interest. The main differences between both approaches are the explicit use of prior information by Bayesians, and the explicit use of null distributions by the classicists. Formalization of prior information in prior distributions is often difficult. In this paper two practical approaches (encompassing priors and training data) to specify prior distributions will be presented. The computation of null distributions is relatively easy. However, as will be illustrated, a straightforward interpretation of the resulting p-values is not always easy. Bayesian model selection can be used to compute posterior probabilities for each of a number of competing models. This provides an alternative for the currently prevalent testing of hypotheses using p-values. Both approaches will be compared and illustrated using case studies. Each case study fits in the framework of the normal linear model, that is, analysis of variance and multiple regression.     

基于熵技术的价值工程在公路设计方案优选中的应用探讨

功能评价方法常采用功能成本法和功能指数法.功能指数法是通过评定各功能的重要程度,用功能指数来表示其功能程度大小,然后与相应成本指数进行比较计算出价值指数,用以评价方案的优劣.如果将熵的技术和优先关系比较法应用到价值工程中,作为功能优序评价模型来计算功能评价指数,就更能反映事物本身的客观规律性.与传统的方法相比,其计算结果更具有说服力.将这一原理应用到公路选线设计方案中,通过工程实例,说明该原理效果更佳.     

Similarity of differential information with subjective prior beliefs

We present a complete, separable and metrizable topology on the product space of information and (subjective) beliefs. Such a topology formalizes similarity of differential information without the assumption of a common prior, but under the assumption that objectively impossible events are considered impossible by subjective beliefs. As an application to the theory of the consumer, we provide results on the continuity of expected utility and demand functions. We also provide continuity results for the value of information and the insurance premium as defined in the literature.     

A Predictive Estimator of the Mean with Missing Data

One of the most difficult problems confronting investigators who analyze data from surveys is how treat missing data. Many statistical procedures can not be used immediately if any values are missing. This paper considers the problem of estimating the population mean using auxiliary information when some observations on the sample are missing and the population mean of the auxiliary variable is not available. We use tools of classical statistical estimation theory to find a suitable estimator. We study the model and design properties of the proposed estimator. We also report the results of a broad-based simulation study of the efficiency of the estimator, which reveals very promising results.     

On model selection in Bayesian regression

We discuss the problem of constructing a suitable regression model from a nonparametric Bayesian viewpoint. For this purpose, we consider the case when the error terms have symmetric and unimodal densities. By the Khintchine and Shepp theorem, the density of response variable can be written as a scale mixture of uniform densities. The mixing distribution is assumed to have a Dirichlet process prior. We further consider appropriate prior distributions for other parameters as the components of the predictive device. Among the possible submodels, we select the one which has the highest posterior probability. An example is given to illustrate the approach.     

供应商选择问题的模糊机会约束规划模型

论文以模糊机会约束规划的方法处理供应商选择问题（VSP）。在市场需求量为模糊变量,同时成本、质量、交付时间三个目标以一定的置信水平成立的前提下,提供了一种帮助决策者进行供应商供货量分配的方法,并给出模型的混合智能通用算法。     

工程项目采购中供应商优先关系模型研究

基于模糊优先关系比较法能科学地解决供应商选择中的不合理问题,对于实际工程材料采购有一定的现实指导意义;实例求解表明此法与层次分析法的解一致。     

考虑属性关联的不确定语言变量R-TOPSIS模型

采用不确定语言变量进行决策是有效反映客观事物的复杂不确定性以及人类思维的模糊性手段。针对多属性决策问题中属性之间具有相互关联作用这一问题,在引入加权决策距离矩阵和Choquet积分构建了一种考虑属性关联的R-TOPSIS语言决策方法。最后结合案例说明该方法的决策过程以及该方法的可行性和有效性。