"四重套利"模型与短期国际资本流动

本文从人民币升值预期、资产溢价、中美利差和中美税差等方面探讨短期国际资本流动的影响因素,并构建了基于套汇、套价、套利和套税的四重套利模型,利用中美之间2002—2009年的月度数据进行实证研究。研究表明:套汇和套价是短期国际资本持续流入的主要动机,而套利和套税又在一定程度上加快其流入。因此,弱化人民币升值预期、遏制资产价格膨胀和利用税收手段将有助于解决套利资本过剩问题。     

Déjà Vu? Short-term training in Germany 1980–1992 and 2000–2003

Short-term training has recently become the largest active labor market program in Germany regarding the number of participants. Little is known about the effectiveness of different types of short-term training, particularly their long-run effects. This paper estimates the effects of short-term training programs in West Germany starting in the time periods 1980–1992 and 2000–2003 on the three outcomes employment, earnings, and participation in long-term training programs. We find that short-term training shows mostly persistently positive and often significant employment effects. Short-term training focusing on testing and monitoring search effort shows slightly smaller effects compared to the pure training variant. The lock-in periods lasted longer in the 1980s and 1990s compared to the early 2000s. Short-term training results in higher future participation in long-term training programs.     

Counter intuitive results in a simple model of wage negotiations

Summary. Short-term contracts and exogenous productivity growth are introduced in a simple wage bargaining model. The equilibrium utilities corresponding to militant union behaviour are independent of the contract length. Necessary and sufficient conditions for monotonic convergence to a unique steady state are derived. Otherwise, cyclic behaviour of wage shares is inevitable. A wage decrease can occur if strike is credible, but never when strike is not credible. In the limit, as time between bargaining rounds vanishes, this paradox survives. Received: September 3, 1998; revised version: February 10, 2000     

Financial innovation in the UK

This study employs a national survey of over 1100 British financial firms to ascertain the determinants of financial innovation and their sales success using the logit and the generalized Tobit models. We find that the likelihood of financial innovation rises with the size of financial firms, employee education, greater expenditure on research and development, the availability of finance and the extent to which firms cooperate with each other. Perceptions of economic risk and innovation costs are also influential. R&D, cooperation and human capital are the main variables driving the success of financial innovation, measured by the percentage share of innovations sold. Firms in London/the south have a significantly greater tendency to innovate, though Scotland also does well. Stock broking, fund management and related activities are more innovative than firms in the financial intermediation and pension/insurance sectors.     

Does International Harmonization of Environmental Policy Instruments Make Economic Sense?

Harmonization of the instruments used in environmental policy has beenconsidered necessary to guarantee fair competition in internationalmarkets. We examine the economic costs of harmonizing paper recyclingstandards in countries where the urgency of the waste disposal problemsdiffer. Using data of seven European countries we estimate thetechnologically feasible input combinations of pulp and waste paper forpaper production. Short-term effects of two environmental policy measures,minimum content requirement and utilization rate target, are analyzed. Bytranslating the two administrative instruments into taxes and subsidies, weshow that the shadow costs of the harmonization vary considerably betweencountries. The difference in the domestic availability of waste may explainthe variation, and a modification of the policy measures to incorporate thisaspect is suggested.     

Long-term trend and short-run dynamics of the Canadian dollar: an error correction modelling approach

Using quarterly data for 1972–2000, the paper examines the long-term and short-term movements of the US-Canadian exchange rate. It is found that the standard purchasing power parity condition fails to explain movements of the Canadian dollar. The explanatory power of the model increases significantly when resource commodity prices are added to the equation. Short-term movements in the Canadian dollar are influenced by the interest rate differential between Canada and the USA.     

Obesity of politicians and corruption in post-Soviet countries

We collected 299 frontal face images of 2017 cabinet ministers from 15 post-Soviet states (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan). For each image, the minister's body-mass index is estimated using a computer vision algorithm. The median estimated body-mass index of cabinet ministers is highly correlated with conventional measures of corruption (Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index, World Bank worldwide governance indicator Control of Corruption, Index of Public Integrity). This result suggests that physical characteristics of politicians such as their body-mass index can be used as proxy variables for political corruption when the latter are not available, for instance at a very local level.     

Measuring the Effect of Corruption on Sovereign Bond Ratings

Abstract

Instrumenting for sovereign corruption, we find that Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index which ‘ranges from 10 (highly clean) to 0 (highly corrupt)’, is a significant predictor of the Standard and Poor’s sovereign bond ratings ranging from 1 (Sovereign Default) to 22 (AAA) in panel data from 52 countries from 1993 to 2002. Corruption downgrades the creditworthiness of sovereign bonds by diverting loan proceeds from productive projects to less productive ones, if not to offshore accounts. In particular, a one point worsening of the corruption perception index leads to an estimated one‐notch reduction out of 22 in the sovereign bond rating.     

THE PRIVATE RATIONALITY OF BOTTLED WATER DRINKING

This article examines evidence for the private rationality of decisions to choose bottled water using a large, nationally representative sample. Consumers are more likely to believe that bottled water is safer or tastes better if they have had adverse experiences with tap water or live in states with more prevalent violations of EPA water quality standards. Perceptions of superior safety, taste, and convenience of bottled water boost consumption of bottled water. Blacks and Hispanics are more likely to drink bottled water due to their relatively greater exposure to unsafe water and greater risk beliefs. The coherent network of experiences, beliefs, and actions is consistent with rational consumer choice. (JEL D12, D80, Q50)     

Short-term disability in solid tumor patients with bone metastases and skeletal-related events

Abstract

Objective:

The skeleton is a common site of metastasis in patients with solid tumors. These patients often experience pain and reduced quality-of-life. This analysis evaluated the time and costs associated with short-term disability use among solid tumor patients with bone metastases (BM) and skeletal-related events (SREs).

Methods:

Data from patients 18–64 years old with solid tumors and BM, eligible for short-term disability benefits between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2010, were extracted from MarketScan Research Databases. Short-term disability hours and costs associated with BM and SREs were evaluated.

Results:

Overall, 1098 patients met the criteria. For all patients with BM, the monthly mean short-term disability hours were 17.7?h pre-BM diagnosis and increased to 60.2?h post-BM diagnosis (p?<?0.001). The corresponding mean monthly short-term disability costs were $277 and $963 in the pre- and post-BM diagnosis periods, respectively (p?<?0.001). Monthly mean short-term disability hours were higher for the cohort of patients with SREs (21.2?h pre-SRE diagnosis and 67.4?h post-SRE diagnosis) than for those without an SRE (8.6?h pre-SRE diagnosis and 14.4?h post-SRE diagnosis) (p?<?0.001). Similarly, the corresponding monthly mean short-term disability costs were higher for patients with SREs ($625 and $1259 pre- and post-SRE diagnosis, respectively) than for patients without an SRE ($452 and $612 pre- and post-SRE diagnosis, respectively) (p?<?0.001). Results of a multivariate analysis indicated that SREs were associated with an additional 39.4 short-term disability hours and $613 in short-term disability costs per month (p?<?0.001).

>Conclusion:

Short-term disability hours and costs increased significantly when patients with solid tumors developed BM and SRE.     

Cultural Dimension of Corruption: A Cross-Country Survey

This study investigates whether culture plays a major role in determining the corruption levels of countries. The cultural dimensions of Hofstede’s model and the worldwide level of corruption provided by the Corruption Perceptions Index were used. A cross-country survey of 98 countries was conducted using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. Three of the six main components of Hofstede’s model were found to have a significant influence on corruption, namely power distance, individualism-collectivism, and long- versus short-term orientation. National culture may explain the level of corruption in each of the countries. About half of the level of corruption in countries is explained by the national culture. Governments must acknowledge the role of culture in order to adopt the most appropriate policy decisions to fight corruption.     

农地制度安排与村民集体行动——小产权房问题探析

小产权房是一个新问题,同时也是一个攸关中国土地制度改革的大问题.文章通过分析小产权房供给背后的黑匣子,认为催生小产权房的制度根源在于我国的城乡二元结构和不完善的土地产权制度,这种制度诱导了村民的集体行动.短期政策要注意平衡各方利益,利用经济手段而非激烈的行政手段慎重地解决小产权房问题;在长期要着眼于土地制度的建设和完善.     

Innovation, cycles and growth

The purpose of this paper is to present a model of growth with endogenous fluctuations. The main feature of our model is that it throws light on the relationships between long waves and business cycles in the economy. The driving forces in the model work in this way: endogenous R&D investment creates new cumulative knowledge. When this knowledge reaches a threshold H*, radical innovations occur which generate productivity growth via the substitution of old capital with new capital. These disruptive events appear recurrently, generating long waves and revitalizing the growth process. Short-term cycles in the model come from the interactions between these innovation-driven transformations and certain prey-predator mechanisms that involve the labor market. We find that our model presents excellent properties: the model generates endogenous cyclical growth as a disequilibrium process; persistent and irregular short cycles appear interwoven with the long waves; and there is a strong significant interaction between both kinds of fluctuations.     

The Australia — New Zealand Farm Problem and the Appropriate Role of Government

Almost throughout the world, farm incomes tend to be low and unstable compared with incomes in other industries, except where heavily subsidised. This instability has become all the more serious because fluctuations have been around a long-term downward trend in the fortunes of agriculture which commenced probably prior to World War I. The long-run world-wide farm problem is an inevitable consequence of economic growth, which results in a surplus of farmers, and especially of small farmers. We must recognise the quite intractable nature of the long-term world-wide component of the problem, as distinct from what can be blamed on our governments, and on the short-term to medium-term world market situation. Temporary assistance policy should centre on facilitating adjustment. The ad hoc, inefficient and inequitable palliatives of the past should be avoided. Short-term assistance should be consistent with longer term objectives for industry development: it should not include output-based subsidies that encourage continued overproduction and usually provide most assistance to those in least need. The emphasis should be on welfare-type assistance based on the individual rather than industry-wide aid.     

Egalitarian Wage Policies and Long-Term Unemployment

How does a centrally imposed egalitarian wage policy affect unemployment, when workers differ with respect to productivity? The effect on total unemployment is found to be ambiguous. Egalitarian wages encourage job creation because increased profits derived from the most productive workers more than outweigh reduced profits derived from the least productive workers. Short-term unemployment is reduced. On the other hand, firms respond by raising their reservation productivity. Some workers are left almost completely unemployable. Long-term unemployment rises. Less inequality in the wage distribution is obtained at the expense of more inequality in the distribution of unemployment.     

The dynamics of food insecurity and overall health: evidence from the Canadian National Population Health Survey

The paper explores whether the responses to household food insecurity questions in cycles two and three of the Canadian National Population Health Survey help explain the links between socioeconomic status and health at the individual level. Short-term transitions in food insecurity status are correlated with changes in health status. There is some evidence for females but not for males that conditional on current health, current household food insecurity can lead to lower future health status, even in the short run. There is stronger evidence for both males and females that conditional on current household food insecurity status, lower current health status can lead to an increased probability of future household food insecurity.     

Women at Work in Melbourne and Adelaide Since 1871

This article presents estimates of female participation rates in the workforce from 1871 to 1971 in two Australian cities. Short-term changes in participation between 1881 and 191I are analyzed. It is concluded that changing conditions of supply were an important determinant of changes in the participation rate during that time and suggested that supplementation of family income by unmarried daughters provides the key to this relationship. Finally an attempt is made to reconcile short-term instability of the participation rate with longer term stability up to 1947 in terms of a widening in the range of employment opportunities for women at about the time of World War I.     

The geography of market failure: Edge-effect externalities and the location and production patterns of organic farming

Perceptions of increasing land scarcity and negative impacts of chemical-based agriculture have led to increasing concern regarding the sustainability of food systems. Incompatible production processes among farming systems may lead to spatial conflicts and production losses between neighboring farms, and the magnitude of such losses may depend not only on the scale of each activity, but also on patterns of land use. Such conflicts can be classified as “edge-effect externalities”—spatial externalities whose marginal impacts decrease as distance from the border generating the negative impact increases. This paper tests the hypothesis that edge-effect externalities have influenced the location and production patterns of certified organic farms, using data from California Central Valley certified organic farmers. Using concepts from landscape ecology and spatial statistics, we investigate difference in parcel geometry and surrounding land uses between organic and non-organic parcels. Using a generalized method of moments (GMM) spatially autoregressive econometric model, we demonstrate that both parcel geometry and surrounding land uses influence the probability of a given parcel being certified organic. We conclude with suggestions for policies to encourage development of organic farming regions.     

双元创新与企业可持续发展:短期财务绩效与长期竞争优势的中介作用

基于创新驱动视角,探究双元创新对企业可持续发展的影响机制,并检验短期财务绩效和长期竞争优势在其中的中介作用。通过对196家高新技术企业调查问卷的统计分析发现,双元创新会对企业可持续发展产生正向影响,但两种创新的影响路径完全不同;短期财务绩效和长期竞争优势作为共同中介变量,在利用式创新和企业可持续发展之间起部分中介作用;长期竞争优势作为中介变量,在探索式创新和企业可持续发展之间起完全中介作用。对企业可持续发展而言,利用式创新的总效应大于探索式创新的间接效应。研究结论具有重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。     

Gazprom’s LNG offensive: a demonstration of monopoly strength or impetus for Russian gas sector reform?

Gazprom enjoys a dominant and privileged position in the Russian energy sector, and indeed in the economy as a whole. This article analyses the company’s failure to achieve the Russian state’s objectives for the country to become a force in the global LNG (liquefied natural gas) market. Has it weakened the company’s standing relative to other industry players and the authorities, with the possibility that they could unleash broader reforms in the Russian gas sector? Short-term political and economic considerations may slow progress towards a radical outcome, with Gazprom’s importance as a domestic and foreign policy tool providing some protection at a time of uncertainty for the Kremlin, but in the longer term it may well be the case that the liberalisation of LNG exports in December 2013 comes to be seen as the first step in a much broader reorganisation of the Russian gas sector.