新兴市场国际资本流动影响因素——基于美元因素和GMM方法的实证分析

本文利用29个新兴市场国家(地区)的数据分别对影响FDI和短期资本流动的因素进行实证分析,结果显示美国货币供给数量越大,流入新兴市场国家(地区)的FDI和短期资本越多;新兴市场国家(地区)利率越高,越能够吸引FDI和短期资本流入;新兴市场国家(地区)货币升值幅度越大,短期资本流入数量越大,但会抑制FDI流入;通货膨胀率上升导致FDI流入减少;投资风险水平越高,越不利于FDI和短期资本流入.这些结论带来的启示是:美国量化宽松货币政策给新兴市场国家(地区)资本流动带来巨大影响,短期资本流入、汇率升值、通货膨胀率上升等问题交织在一起,新兴市场国家(地区)在实施提高利率、减少货币供给量等政策时必须权衡利弊,综合考虑以上因素.     

国际私人资本流动新趋势──析亚洲金融危机后国际私人资本流动的地域倾向

１９９７年亚洲金融危机爆发后,国际金融市场经历了剧烈的动荡和调整,国际私人资本流动出现新的发展趋势。发达国家之间资本往来频繁,规模越来越大,其中,欧洲国家对美国的投资和美国对日本的投资是其主流。发展中国家由于风险陡增,国际私人资本流入规模大大缩小。１９９８年流入发展中国家的私人资本总额为２０８０亿美元,比１９９７年的２９９０亿美元下降了３０％１。本文拟从五个主要地域的国际私人资本流动情况,分析危机后的国际私人资本流动新趋势。一、亚洲新兴市场国家吸引外资前景喜忧参半进入１９９９年,亚洲新兴市场国家…     

国家外汇管理局报告:欧美推行量化宽松货币政策 亚洲新兴经济体成为资本流入的首选

点评:虽然从长期看新兴市场仍将吸引资金流入,但不排除存在周期性流出的风险。目前亚洲新兴经济体虽然经济基本面较好,且资本累积长期以FDI为主,但2008年金融危机后持续成为投资热点,积累了大量的国际资本,若发生新一轮资本流出,包括中国在内的新兴市场经济体将被动承受资本流出和本币贬值的压力。因此,对于可能发生的新一轮资本流出不可不察、不可不防。     

渣打银行：乐观情绪减退 世界经济“回归现实”

随着第二季度来临，今年开年几个月弥漫在市场上的乐观情绪，可能很快要让路给理性和现实。尽管今年以来市场表现出乐观情绪，但由于基本面疲弱，政策选择余地有限以及信心多变，西方经济体仍然脆弱。新兴经济体的结构性增长趋势将是全球经济的积极因素。对新兴经济体的决策者而言，国内因素的影响力将会越来越大。 今年以来，国际资本流入亚洲的势头强劲，货币供应也保持较陕增长。亚洲货币当局需要注意中期内消费者价格和资产价格出现通胀的风险。     

欧美复苏重击新兴市场

在发达经济体重归增长的同时,新兴市场将从资本流入转向资本流出,流动性紧缩将引爆过去资本带来的高杠杆,造成新兴市场国家的经济衰退。在过去的5年,肇始于美国次贷的全球金融危机,使得发达经济体的增长几乎停滞,政府债务飙升。美国学者莱因哈特和罗格夫的研究认为,在金融危机发生后的三年内,发达经济体深陷危机泥沼的情况下,新兴市场成为全球经济的领头羊,包括中国     

新兴市场迎来新一轮资本流入

<正>国际货币基金组织预测,2013年新兴市场国家经济将好于2012年。而且,新兴市场国家整体国内生产总值占全球总量的比重将首次超过发达国家。据统计,今年开年第二周,新兴市场基金获得近95亿美元的投资,创历史新高。面对新一轮资本流入大潮,新兴市场国家如何应对随之而来的机遇与挑战,是本版今日关注的核心话题。近期,新兴市场出现明显的资本流入迹象。首先,中国、巴西等新兴市场大国的货币出现短期升值趋势;其次,在发达国家外汇储备普遍下降的情况下,     

国际资本"入侵"城市房地产

随着经济全球化的加快,越来越多的国际资本瞄准中国房地产市场.这些国际资本的流入一方面促进了我国的经济增长,另一方面也带来若干隐患.本文讨论如何正确对待海外资金的流入,促进我国的房地产金融体制改革.     

新兴市场国家危机与资本流动的关系实证研究

20世纪90年代以来,新兴市场国家爆发了多次金融危机,发生危机的新兴市场国家在危机前后都经历了资本大量流入、突然逆转、巨额流出的过程。本文采用实证分析方法,对20世纪90年代以来新兴市场国家的资本流动情况以及与危机的关系进行研究。研究结果显示,新兴市场国家危机期间得资本流动剧烈波动是与危机的发生之间有显著的相关性。本文研究结果可为新兴市场国家在金融开放条件下有效利用国际资本、防范金融危机提供有益的参考。     

国际热钱渗透民间借贷调查

近日,央行报告指出,新兴市场和发展中国家资本总流动(含官方流动和私人流动)呈现净流入之势。央行承认,"近些年国际资本流入对新兴市场经济体的宏观经济管理带来了挑战。"     

资本账户开放对经济的影响路径分析

实证研究表明,外国资本的流入与新兴市场国家快速的经济发展缺少显著关系。而新古典经济学派认为缺少足够的国内储蓄是经济体发展受限的主要原因,资本流入可以有助于提高国内储蓄,进而推动经济增长。笔者通过对已有研究成果的梳理,在对资本账户开放与经济增长缺少显著关系做出解释的同时,重新反思资本账户开放对经济的影响路径。     

经济全球化下跨国资本流动的新趋势与对策

经济全球化下,跨国资本流动产生了有别于传统的新趋势。以控制海外企业所有权的对外直接投资已成为跨国资本流向的主要形式。外资控股对产业结构会带来一定的影响,跨国资本出于全球战略考虑,会强化资本输入国产业畸形发展,对我国产业结构调整和升级带来不利影响。因此,对于跨国资本流动新趋势和作用应从经济全球化和国家战略发展的维度来思考对策。     

国际产业资本转移的基础、规律及趋势

产业资本的跨国流动和转移是国际经济分工中的常见现象,产业资本跨国转移的目的是在世界范围内整合利用其它国家的优势生产要素,其转移的载体是跨国公司,其转移的理论基础是比较优势原理。国际产业资本转移一般经历三个阶段,在不同阶段所转移的产业也不相同。在国际产业分工更加深化的条件下,国际产业资本将向具有制造业比较优势的国家和地区集聚。     

New venture internationalization: The role of venture capital types and reputation

This study examines how different types of venture capital relate to new venture internationalization. Using a sample of 646 U.S. new ventures that executed IPOs between 1995 and 2010, we find that ventures with foreign or corporate venture capital have higher levels of international intensity. We also investigate the moderating role of VC reputation on the relationship between foreign venture capital and international intensity and corporate venture capital and international intensity. Our results suggest that VC reputation weakens the positive relationship between corporate VC and international intensity.     

Capital-flow management measures: What are they good for?

Are capital controls and macroprudential measures related to international exposures successful in achieving their objectives? Assessing their effectiveness is complicated by selection bias; countries which change their capital-flow management measures (CFMs) often share specific characteristics and are responding to changes in variables that the CFMs are intended to influence. This paper addresses these challenges by using a propensity-score matching methodology. We also create a new database with detailed information on weekly changes in controls on capital inflows, capital outflows, and macroprudential measures related to international transactions from 2009 to 2011 for 60 countries. Results show that these macroprudential measures can significantly reduce some measures of financial fragility. Most CFMs do not significantly affect other key targets, however, such as exchange rates, capital flows, interest-rate differentials, inflation, equity indices, and different volatilities. One exception is that removing controls on capital outflows may reduce real exchange rate appreciation. Therefore, certain CFMs can be effective in accomplishing specific goals—but most popular measures are not “good for” accomplishing their stated aims.     

Tariffs,foreign capital and immiserizing growth

For a small tariff-imposing country, within the standard two-commodity two-factor model of international trade, this paper reconsiders the implications of an inflow of capital from abroad. When the host country continues to import the capital-intensive good while remaining incompletely specialized, the analysis shows that the capital inflow must reduce host-country welfare, assuming that the foreign capital receives the full (untaxed) value of its marginal product. Under other circumstances considered, however, the inflow may have different consequences for welfare.     

金融自由化趋势下的汇率制度选择和宏观经济政策表现——兼论中国汇率制度现状

在金融自由化趋势下 ,全球范围内的国际资本流动成为一种必然的要求 ,资本项目下国际资本的自由流动和汇率制度选择之间存在着一定的内在联系。同资本项目下国际资本的自由流动和浮动汇率制度的配合相比 ,资本项目下国际资本的自由流动和固定汇率制度的配合是没有效率的。我国的实际汇率制度是名为有管理的浮动汇率制度 ,实为固定的汇率制度 ,在资本自由流动成为必然的趋势下 ,这样的汇率制度安排必将影响到宏观经济政策的效率。     

Patterns of international capital raisings

This paper documents several new patterns associated with firms issuing stocks and bonds in foreign markets that motivate the need for and help guide the direction of future research. Three major patterns stand out. (1) A large and growing fraction of capital raisings, especially debt issuances, occurs in international markets, but a very small number of firms accounts for the bulk of international capital raisings, highlighting the cross-firm heterogeneity in financial globalization. (2) Changes in firm performance following equity and debt issuances in international markets are qualitatively similar to those following domestic issuances, suggesting that capital raisings abroad are not intrinsically different from those in domestic markets. (3) Firms continue to issue securities both abroad and at home after accessing international markets, suggesting that international and domestic markets are complements, not substitutes. Existing theories do not fully account for these patterns.     

The influence of experiential,inherited and external knowledge on the internationalization of venture capital firms

This paper examines the effect of different types of international knowledge accumulation on the internationalization of venture capital firms, as a particular type of professional service firms. We distinguish between experiential knowledge acquired through previous activities, inherited knowledge through the management team and external knowledge through network partners. Hypotheses are developed for both the likelihood and the number of cross-border investments. The hand collected dataset comprises a combination of survey and archival data on a unique sample of 110 venture capital firms from five different European countries. Analyses indicate a positive effect of experiential and inherited knowledge on internationalization, but external knowledge has limited impact. Intense international contacts even decrease international activities. Together, these results highlight the importance of experiential and inherited knowledge to overcome information asymmetries inherent in the internationalization of professional service firms, and of venture capital firms in particular.     

Development of career capital through international assignments and its transferability to new contexts

Individuals working in a dynamic international operating environment need flexibility and related competencies that can be transferred to different contexts. Understanding the development and transferability of these competencies is therefore important for both individuals and firms. This article examines and contrasts the development of expatriates' career capital during their first two international assignments, and its transferability to new contexts. Based on interviews with Finnish expatriates, the results show that each assignment has different developmental influences and that all types of career capital acquired are transferable, but not equally or in the same way. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

国际产业资本流入与中国“刘易斯拐点”出现的关系分析

当前,国际产业资本加速向中国转移,同时"刘易斯拐点"在中国出现已经广受认可。本文从理论上论证了国际产业资本促进"刘易斯拐点"出现的作用机制,应用计量分析方法检验了国际产业资本与第一、第二产业就业的相关性,检验结果表明,国际产业资本促进了第一产业就业减少和第二产业就业增加,一定程度上解释了"刘易斯拐点"的出现可能与国际产业资本向中国加速转移有着紧密的联系。