Endogenous technical progress induced by CO2 reduction policies: Simulation results for Austria

Almost all model simulations of CO₂ reduction policies focus on the effects of changes in the relative price of energy compared to the other factors of production caused by various energy taxation schemes. Typical results of these simulations as reported e.g. from the GREEN model of OECD show depressing effects on real GDP and upward pressures on inflation.We propose the hypothesis that these results may be biased due to an inadequate treatment of technical progress and proceed as follows: Firstly, instead of treating technical progress as exogenous we explicitly model theprice induced change of the composition of capital stock of households and producers with its effects on energy efficiency and investment demand. Secondly, we investigate to what extent adouble dividend policy which boosts CO₂ reduction technologies by special programs funded by the additional tax revenues differs from the mere price induced technological changes.We implement these propositions within the framework of a macroeconometric model for Austria which emphasizes substitution between energy and capital in providing energy services for households and producers. The following results are obtained: Firstly, we indicate how misleading the GDP effects may be if they result from lower energy intensities but still maintain the required energy services. Secondly, we investigate the effects of various energy taxation policies under different compensation schemes. Instead of merely relying on price-induced technological change we strongly advocate compensation programs which provide additional incentives for implementing high efficiency energy technologies such as cogeneration equipment or buildings with improved thermal standards.     

Evaluating new CO2 reduction technologies in Japan up to 2030

A mathematical model was developed for evaluating CO₂-reduction technologies in power generation, residential, commercial and road transport sectors in Japan. The existing and new power generation technologies evaluated included 34 centralized and 8 dispersed power generation technologies in the residential and commercial energy demand sectors. To take into account the varieties of useful energy and of its demand duration patterns among entities in the demand sectors, the hourly mean power and heating and cooling demand–supply balances in one residential and four commercial representative entities were considered for each month. The road transport sector addressed five types of automotive use. The useful-energy demands are exogenously given; the model calculates the technology installations that satisfy the demands to minimize the total systems cost for each year up to 2030. The availability of the new technologies, i.e., the first years they are installable, is derived from research and development (R&D) process analyses on the basis of surveys to experts. As a result of the model calculation, dispersed molten carbonate and solid oxide fuel cells and onboard gasoline reforming-type fuel cell vehicle (FCV) technologies are expected to have the largest economic values, approximately 60–120 billion constant 1998 yen [460–920 million U.S. dollars (USD)] among the evaluated new CO₂-reduction technologies. One of the implications from our calculations is that extending electric power corporations' commercial coverage to dispersed power generation, in addition to centralized power generation, is desirable to help lower overall costs in society, as well as to secure industry profits.     

Health benefits of tunneling through the Chinese environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)

In this paper, we first add to what is a growing literature on the existence and nature of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model for developing countries, by testing for the existence of an EKC for China using a panel data set of city-specific, annual ambient levels of SO₂ pollution. We find some support for both the typical inverted-U-shaped relationship and an N-shaped, cubic configuration. More significantly, we then explore the possibility of China's “tunneling” through the EKC, by using newer, cleaner technologies, and thereby avoiding some of the environmental degradation that had often accompanied economic growth. Specifically, we estimate and economically value the health benefits realizable to Chinese cities from successful efforts to “tunnel” under the EKC over the next generation.     

The effect of ESCOs on carbon dioxide emissions

Proponents of energy service companies (ESCOs) argue that these firms provide a crucial instrument for delivering improved energy efficiency in public and private sectors, thus contributing to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reduction around the world. Do ESCOs reduce CO₂ emissions? To answer this question, we develop an estimating equation, which approximates the IPAT model, from a simple model of production. We estimate a dynamic panel of 129 countries over the period 1980–2007 to show that the ESCOs effectively reduce CO₂ emissions and that this effect increases over time. These findings also prove robust to the inclusion of a set of control variables, different dates of the first ESCO and the Kyoto Protocol. Finally, we discuss energy policy implications.     

Exploring causal relationships in an innovation program with Robust Portfolio Modeling

Many countries seek to foster the commercial exploitation of science-based research results through selective policy instruments. Typically, these instruments involve processes of follow-up data collection where the results of ex ante and ex post assessments are systematically recorded. Yet, several factors – such as the presence of multiple objectives, predominance of qualitative data and missing observations – may complicate the use of such data for adjusting the management practices of these instruments. With the aim of addressing these challenges, we adopt Robust Portfolio Modeling¹ (RPM) as an evaluation framework to the analysis of longitudinal data: specifically, we (i) determine subsets of outperforming and underperforming projects through the development of an explicit multicriteria model for ex post evaluation, and (ii) carry out comparative analyses between these subsets, in order to identify which ex ante interventions and contextual characteristics may have contributed to later performance. We also report experiences from the application of RPM-evaluation to a Finnish innovation program and outline extensions of this approach that provide further decision support to the managers of innovation programs.     

Forecasting the optimal cost of energy conservation by sectors to the year 2000

This paper suggests that government policies to induce or mandate energy conservation across sectors should be based on cost-effective measures. Section 2 outlines the concept of cost-effectiveness by sector according to the marginal cost MC of conservation and the aggregation of the MC curves in a horizontally added aggregate marginal cost curve AMC or the supply curve for conservation. It also outlines a methodology of estimating MC (in constant prices) by regressing total cost of conservation on total energy conserved. Empirical estimation of the MC in the residential sector is attempted in Section 3 by developing data for annualized cost of conservation capital stocks and the related energy savings. The regression of total residential energy conservation costs on total conservation provided the MC at $0.84 per million Btu (MM Btu) to the year 2000. Section 4 used time-series data for the commercial sector and obtained the MC at $0.17/MM Btu for 1980–2000. The MC of conservation in the industrial sector is estimated in Section 5 at $0.78/MM Btu for 1985–2000. In section 6, we estimate the MC in the transportation sector at $2.42/MM Btu for 1980–2000. The last section summarizes the approach and conclusions and recommends that the cost-effectiveness approach dictates that the order of priority for inducing or mandating conservation should be from the commercial to the industrial, to the residential and followed by the transportation sector for the next 20 years.     

A general impossibility result on strategy-proof social choice hyperfunctions

A social choice hyperfunction picks a non-empty set of alternatives at each admissible preference profile over sets of alternatives. We analyze the manipulability of social choice hyperfunctions. We identify a domain D^λ of lexicographic orderings which exhibits an impossibility of the Gibbard–Satterthwaite type. Moreover, this impossibility is inherited by all well-known superdomains of D^λ. As most of the standard extension axioms induce superdomains of D^λ while social choice correspondences are particular social choice hyperfunctions, we are able to generalize many impossibility results in the literature.     

Balanced Contributions Axiom in the Solution of Cooperative Games

In a gamevin characteristic function form, suppose the Banzhaf value ψ is used to pay a coalitionSalready formed. Then coalitionSno longer receivesv(S); instead it receivesR^ψ(S) = ∑_{i ∈ S}ψ_i(v_s), wherev_Sdenotes the subgame of coalitionS. Surprisingly, the Shapley value of this new game Sh(N, R^ψ) is equal to the Banzhaf value ofv. In this paper we establish a similar result for all values satisfying balanced contributions axiom. Additionally, we introduce player's weights to obtain the corresponding result in the nonsymmetric case.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: C71     

A functional approach for studying technological progress: Extension to energy technology

This paper extends a broad functional category approach for the study of technological capability progress recently developed and applied to information technology to a second key case—that of energy based technologies. The approach is applied to the same three functional operations—storage, transportation and transformation—that were used for information technology by first building a 100 plus year database for each of the three energy-based functional categories. In agreement with the results for information technology in the first paper, the energy technology results indicate that the functional approach offers a stable methodology for assessing longer time technological progress trends. Moreover, similar to what was found with information technology in the first study, the functional capability for energy technology shows continual—if not continuous—improvement that is best quantitatively described as exponential with respect to time. The absence of capability discontinuities—even with large technology displacement—and the lack of clear saturation effects are found with energy as it was with information. However, some key differences between energy and information technology are seen and these include:

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Lower rates of progress for energy technology over the entire period: 19-37% annually for Information Technology and 3-13% for Energy Technology.

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Substantial variability of progress rates is found within given functional categories for energy compared to relatively small variation within any one category for information technology. The strongest variation is found among capability progress among different energy types.

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More challenging data recovery and metric definition for energy as compared to information technology.

These findings are interpreted in terms of fundamental differences between energy and information including the losses and efficiency constraints on energy. We apply Whitney's insight that these fundamental differences lead to naturally modular information technology artifacts. The higher progress rates of information-based as opposed to energy-based technologies follows since decomposable systems can progress more rapidly due to the greater ease of independent as opposed to simultaneous development. In addition, the broad implications of our findings to studies of the relationships between technical and social change are briefly discussed.     

Validation of the Bowel Function Index to detect clinically meaningful changes in opioid-induced constipation

Abstract

Objective: The Bowel Function Index (BFI) is a clinician-administered, patient-reported, 3-item questionnaire to evaluate opioid-induced constipation in cancer and non-cancer chronic pain patients. The objective of the present analysis was to evaluate the psychometric characteristics of the BFI using data from clinical studies of oral prolonged release (PR) oxycodone/naloxone.

Methods: OXN2401 was a multicenter, controlled, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group study including oral PR oxycodone combined with oral PR naloxone as well as oral PR oxycodone combined with corresponding naloxone placebo. OXN3401 and OXN3001 were 12-week multicenter, controlled, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group studies of a fixed combination of oral PR oxycodone/naloxone versus PR oxycodone. In addition, a placebo group was included in study OXN3401. BFI psychometric characteristics (reliability, reproducibility, convergent/known groups validity, and responsiveness) were evaluated.

Results: Demographic data (n=985) were comparable and analyses indicated a high degree of internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha >0.7). Change of less than 5 points in BFI was indicative of high reproducibility. Correlations between BFI item and total scores to stool frequency were statistically significant and in the low-to-moderate range (OXN2401 –0.23 to –0.29, p < 0.001; OXN3401 range –0.26 to –0.40, p < 0.001; OXN3001 –0.14 to –0.15, p < 0.05). Data indicate that a BFI score change of ≥12 points represents a clinically meaningful change in constipation.

Limitations: This publication for validation of BFI only includes data from three clinical trials. However, another publication of an additional specifically designed cross-sectional validation study is in preparation.

Conclusion: The BFI is a valid and reliable instrument for the assessment of opioid-induced constipation in chronic pain patients. Psychometric analyses from clinical trials support the BFI's psychometric properties.     

Exact equivalence of instrumental variable estimators in an error component structural system

The paper establishes an equivalence result in the context of anm-equation error component structural system, whose disturbances have the usual three-component structure, and whose equations feature explanatory variables of the formz _i, z_t andz _it; the latter vary (respectively) only over individuals, only over time, and over both. Under the stochastic specification assumed, it is shown that the alternative instrumental variables (IV) estimators commonly used in the special cases of this system are all equivalent (numerically identical); the result is a generalization of the equivalences established previously for the special cases. In the single equation (m=1) context, the equivalence requires that the IV set contain variables of the formz _i and/orz _t, and further, in numbers determined by the ranks of (respectively) the individuals-mean and time-mean matrices of the instruments. If such an IV set is common to all equations, the equivalence also holds for the system under joint estimation. The result is used to recommend a couple of estimators for use in panel data, on grounds of computational simplicity.This is a revision of the December 1990 draft with the same title, and is a substantial revision of the April 1990 version entitled: Analysis of an error component structural system. This revision has benefited from comments received from a referee and a editor of this journal. I came to know from an anonymous reader that the equivalence criterion developed in my 1990 a article, used here and the two earlier versions, was infact obtained previously in an unpublished paper by Balestra (1988). Balestra's paper, which was made available to me by Badi Baltagi at the time of this revision, and subsequently by Balestra, considers the equivalence of ^b, ^c and one other estimator which differs from our ^a. Errors, if any, are my responsibility.     

A UK analysis of the cost of switching renal transplant patients from an immediate-release to a prolonged-release formulation of tacrolimus based on differences in trough concentration variability

Background and aims:

Randomized controlled trials have shown that a once-daily prolonged-release (PR) tacrolimus formulation (PR tacrolimus; Advagraf), is non-inferior to a twice-daily immediate-release (IR) tacrolimus formulation (IR tacrolimus; Prograf) in terms of biopsy-proven acute rejection, graft failure and mortality in renal transplant recipients. However, relative to IR tacrolimus, PR tacrolimus exhibits reduced tacrolimus trough concentration variability, which has been associated with reduced graft failure. Based on these data, the present study evaluated the cost of switching UK renal transplant patients from IR tacrolimus to PR tacrolimus.

Methods:

UK-specific data on acute rejection, graft failure, and mortality were used to construct a budget impact model to assess the costs of switching from IR tacrolimus to PR tacrolimus on a 1:1?mg:mg basis. The model assumed that 3.1% of patients on PR tacrolimus had high tacrolimus trough concentration variability compared with 17.4% on IR tacrolimus, based on a study comparing PR tacrolimus and IR tacrolimus pharmacokinetics. A relative graft failure risk of 2.38 was applied to high variability patients based on data from a tacrolimus variability study in which 10/148 patients with low variability experienced graft failure, compared with 24/149 in the high variability group. Cost data were taken from the British National Formulary and 2012–2013 NHS tariff information.

Results:

The mean per-patient cost (including tacrolimus, concomitant immunosuppressive medications, dialysis after graft failure, and treatment for acute rejection) was GBP 26,941 (standard deviation [SD]?=?GBP 2765) with PR tacrolimus vs GBP 30,356 (SD?=?GBP 3085) for IR tacrolimus over a 5-year period, corresponding to a saving of GBP 3415 (SD?=?GBP 516) per patient or GBP 341,500 in a hypothetical 100-patient transplant center. Cost savings were driven primarily by lower dialysis costs resulting from the lower proportion of PR tacrolimus patients with high tacrolimus trough concentration variability (leading to lower graft failure risk).

Limitations:

The main limitation of the study was the use of heterogeneous data sources to capture the effect of within-patient variability on graft failure. The most important difference between the studies was the definition of the threshold between low and high within-patient variability. This was explored in sensitivity analyses in which the inter-arm difference in the inter-arm proportions of patients with high and low variability was abolished.

Conclusions:

Converting UK renal transplant recipients from IR tacrolimus to PR tacrolimus was associated with lower pharmacy and dialysis costs.     

Fixed versus variable supply in the public provision of goods

Using discriminatory price auctions with variable supply, we explore a situation in which a corruptible public employee is in charge of producing and allocating a finite number of goods among consumers with uniformly distributed valuations. The negative effects of corruption are lower when the employee‘s task is to “provide at least q₀ goods” than when the employee is required to “provide exactly q₀ goods”.     

Remarks on the application of statistical games to technological development forecasting

This work presents the probability of determining a quantitative forecast of technological development S(t) defined by a set m of parameters S⁽¹⁾(t),S⁽²⁾(t),…,S^(m)(t), based on statistical game theory. Assuming that the coordinates S⁽ⁱ⁾(t) (i = 1, 2,…,m) of a forecasted vector S(t) are stochastic processes with given probabilistic characteristics, a formula of a function forecasting the value of a coordinate S⁽ⁱ⁾(t) of this vector can be obtained. This formula permits to determine a vector of forecasts _τT(x) of technological development S(t) at a given moment t = τ+T.     

Complete characterization of Yannelis—Zame and Chichilnisky—Kalman—Mas-Colell properness conditions on preferences for separable concave functions defined inL + p andL p

Summary Properness of preferences are useful for proving existences of an equilibrium and of supporting prices in Banach Lattices. In this paper we characterize completely properness and uniform properness for separable concave functions defined inL ₊ ^p . We prove also that every separable concave function which is well-defined inL ^p is automatically continuous.The author would like to thank Rose-Anne DANA and three referees for their helpful remarks and suggestions.     

Toward a 0th Law of Thermodynamics: Order-Creation Complexity Dynamics from Physics and Biology to Bioeconomics

The evolutionary economics part of bioeconomics has its origins in attempts to justify why only rational firms survive, or to introduce dynamics into economic orthodoxy. To the extent that these views persist, this aspect of bioeconomics appears outdated. A more recent view is that the most significant dynamics in bio- and econospheres are not variances around equilibria. Instead order is now seen to be due to the interactions of autonomous, heterogeneous agents energized by contextually imposed tensions induced by energy differentials. While Darwinian selection is still an important process at the tail end of the order-creation process, other natural forces surrounding the biosphere are seen as causing the more significant changes in biological entities over the millennia. This view is set forth within the framework of thermodynamics. It also calls for a change away from the definition of science rooted in the equilibrium mathematics of Newton's orbital mechanics. This new message from natural science is about rapid-fire dynamics calling for a fast-motion science of order-creation before the equilibria of the 1^st Law of Thermodynamics take hold. The 2^nd Law of Thermodynamics is seen to dominate the 1^st Law as the root cause of change. The possibility of a 0^th law – of agents' self-organization toward order creation – is considered. Key works by Prigogine, Ashby, Lorenz, Haken, Kelso et al., Salthe, Gell-Mann, Mainzer, Omnès, and Kauffman are reviewed. Nine premises – tracing the path toward an emerging 0^th law – are discussed, with some variance also evident. The view of Kelso et al. most easily leads to a one-sentence statement of a possible 0^th law of order creation that could offer something of value to bioeconomists.     

The Choquet Bargaining Solutions

We axiomatically investigate the problem of rationalizing bargaining solutions by social welfare functions that are linear in every rank-ordered subset of Rⁿ₊ . Such functions, the so-called Choquet integrals, have been widely used in the theories of collective and individual choice. We refer to bargaining solutions that can be rationalized by Choquet integrals as Choquet bargaining solutions. Our main result is a complete characterization of Choquet bargaining solutions. As a corollary of our main result, we also obtain a characterization of the generalized Gini bargaining solutions introduced by Blackorby et al. (1994, Econometrica62, 1161–1178). Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D71, C78.     

A quantile approach to US GNP

In this paper we fitted a quantile self-exciting threshold autoregressive (QSETAR) time series model to the growth rate of real US GNP. We also presented a forecasting method for QSETAR models. This forecasting method makes it possible to obtain the predictive quantiles and predictive distribution function of x_t+m given x_t for m > 0, and hence any quantities of interest can be derived. Therefore, this new approach allows us to study the US GNP from a distribution point view, rather than from a mean point of view. The results obtained in this paper show that the method works very well in practice.     

p-Best response set and the robustness of equilibria to incomplete information

In this paper, we use p-best response sets—a set-valued extension of p-dominance—in order to provide a new sufficient condition for the robustness of equilibria to incomplete information: if there exists a set S which is a p-best response set with , and there exists a unique correlated equilibrium μ^* whose support is in S then μ^* is a robust Nash equilibrium.