Cointegration Analysis of Audit Pricing Model: A Panel Unit Root Test Approach

In this study, we provide evidence on the stationarity of real audit fees and the major explanatory variables frequently used in the audit pricing models from a pooled data set, using panel unit root tests developed by Im et al. (1997). The panel unit root test supports the hypothesis of non‐stationarity of audit fees and their major determinants. We demonstrate that variables in the audit pricing model that were previously found to have impact on audit fees may turn out to be useless when more powerful tests like panel tests are applied to these variables. Our evidence implies that failing to employ appropriate procedure to test cointegration and to specify the appropriate model for audit fees and their determinants would generate results that may have exaggerated the effects of some variables on audit fees.     

The Impact of Ownership Structure On Corporate Debt Policy: a Time-Series Cross-Sectional Analysis

This study examines the influence of agency costs and ownership concentration on the capital structure of the firm. Of particular interest is the composition of equity ownership as a determinant of overall capital structure and the dynamic adjustment of capital structure to changes in the equity ownership. Results indicate that the distribution of equity ownership is important in explaining overall capital structure and that managers do reduce the level of debt as their own wealth is increasingly tied to the firm. It is also noted that the time-series component is important in resolving the conflicting results reported in prior research.     

基于面板单位根检验的失业率结构突变研究

面板数据由于包含截面和时期提供了更多的信息,可以更好地分离出其中的随机成分而提高单位根检验的精度,考虑面板中的结构突变则可以进一步提高结论的准确性.通过构造基于结构突变的面板单位根检验方法,选取经合组织中具有代表性的15个国家年度失业率数据进行的实证分析表明:失业率指标为平稳性变量,在考虑结构突变时面板数单位根检验水平有了显著的提高,这为研究经济变量的平稳性,特别在观测期较短的情况下,提供了一种有效的研究手段.     

分布异质视角下产业集聚与文化产业增长研究-基于分位数面板回归的经验证据

基于分布异质视角,依据2003-2011年省域面板数据,利用分位数面板回归模型,考量产业集聚与文化产业增长.结果表明:随分位水平的提高,各因素的作用不一.文化产业集聚对文化产业增长的正向边际贡献呈现递增趋势.因此,应遵循文化产业增长的内在规律,因地制宜,合理规划文化产业集聚区,推进文化资源、要素与资本市场的对接,调整文化消费结构,促进文化产业的可持续增长.     

Cross‐sectional Restrictions on the Spot and Forward Term Structures of Interest Rates and Panel Unit Root Tests

In this paper we examine the stationarity of all the rates comprising the USD, GBP, DM and JPY spot and forward term structures. Instead of focussing on short maturity interest rates, as most other papers do, we perform a detailed analysis of the whole range of spot and forward interest rates of the 4 main currencies. We investigate the issue of stationarity within the framework of an equilibrium interest rate model such as Vasicek (1977), that defines the cross-sectional and time series properties that interest rates of various maturities must satisfy. We show that within a one-factor interest rate model, such as Vasicek, all interest rates are restricted to exhibit the same mean reverting behaviour. This restriction allows us to apply more powerful panel unit root tests. This methodology increases considerably the number of observations available and as a result the power of the unit root tests. The higher power of these tests allows us to demonstrate that there does exist mean reversion on the spot and forward US interest rates and the forward DM and GBP interest rates.     

生育政策变动引致薪酬性别响应的异质性分析——来自中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）的经验证据

依据多期中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据,运用双重差分法,考量生育政策变动引致薪酬性别响应的异质性。结果表明,生育政策变动引致薪酬性别响应具有明显的异质性特征。生育政策变动对男性薪酬的影响相对有限,但对在非公有单位就业、年龄低于35岁的青年女性薪酬具有较为显著的负向影响。该结论在经过倾向得分匹配-双重差分法检验后依旧保持稳健。社会保障不足、在时间和精力方面不能很好地平衡全职工作与家务劳动等,是生育政策变动影响部分女性薪酬的主要成因。鉴于此,国家在完善和落实积极生育支持措施时,应结合不同人群的差异性特点分类施策,构建生育友好的就业环境。     

Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output

The nature and magnitude of the economic shocks that have affected the per capita GDP of 16 OECD countries are analyzed over a long period using the outlier method. Strong proof of infrequent large permanent and transitory shocks were found, essentially resulting from the two major wars in the twentieth century, the recession in the 1920s, the Great Depression, among others. We also examine the nature of the output trend by combining different tests of non-stationarity on different GDP series corrected by the outliers detected. It is shown that the per capita GDP series cannot reject the unit root hypothesis in 13 of the 16 countries examined. No conclusion could be drawn for the other countries because the test results were contradictory.     

信用规模对实体经济和虚拟经济影响效应的异质性分析

基于1998-2019年中国省际面板数据,通过探究信用规模与实体经济、虚拟经济的关系,挖掘和解释信用规模扩张对经济发展的影响机制.市场经济首先是信用经济,随着信用交易不断增多,信用规模对经济发展的作用不断加大.从经济类型的异质性研究发现,信用规模扩张能够显著促进经济发展,且对虚拟经济的促进作用强于实体经济;从空间异质性...     

基于时间序列的山东省人均GDP分析与预测

人均国内生产总值综合考虑了一个地区经济总量和人口基数,能够较好地反映一个地区经济增长和居民经济生活水平。本文以1978—2013年的山东省人均GDP数据为样本,用时间序列分析方法建立自回归预测模型。根据预测,山东省“十二五”期间人均GDP呈现出先慢后快的增长特点,可能原因是前期受金融危机影响较大,后期影响逐渐减弱。政府应保持宏观经济政策连续性稳定性,不断扩大开放,实施创新驱动,加快转方式调结构促升级,深化国民收入分配体制改革,实现经济持续健康发展和社会和谐稳定。     

高管团队异质性、CEO权力与企业成本粘性的实证分析

企业成本粘性正成为实证会计领域一个重要关注的话题,过高的企业成本粘性不利于企业价值极大化。以我国上市公司为样本,对高管特质、CEO权力与成本粘性间的关系进行实证分析。研究发现：团队年龄异质性、教育水平异质性、任期异质性会显著增加企业成本,但专业背景异质性有利于降低企业成本;在考虑CEO权力后,CEO权力的扩大有利于协调高管团队意见,降低成本;其在与高管特质四大因素交互后,团队年龄异质性、教育水平异质性、任期异质性、专业背景异质性受到了削弱或强化。要降低企业的成本粘性,应多注意团队成员的年龄差异、高管的受教育水平、任期以及团队的专业背景;同时也要重视对CEO的赋权,除重视与考察其个人履历与能力外,还应通过契约的方式赋予其管理企业更合适的权力。     

金融集聚对收入增长的溢出效应及区域异质性研究

金融业的一个重要特征是金融集聚。本文基于2010-2020年我国31个省的面板数据,通过计算全国金融业的莫兰指数来确定金融三大产业银行业、保险业和证券业集聚的空间依赖性,运用空间杜宾模型研究金融集聚对收入增长溢出效应的区域异质性。结果表明,银行业集聚对三大区域收入增长的空间溢出效应显著为正;保险业集聚存在对东部地区与中部地区正向的收入溢出效应,对西部地区的溢出效应显著为负;证券业集聚存在对东部与西部地区负向的收入溢出效应,对中部地区的溢出效应为正但不显著。因此,差异化的政策引导与区域间协调的金融资源配置对区域收入稳定增长意义重大。     

人口老龄化对技术创新的时空异质性效应研究

基于时空异质性视角,依据省级面板数据,考量人口老龄化对技术创新的影响.结果显示:人口老龄化对技术创新的影响呈时空异质性,由于存在多重效应叠加,在全国层面统计上不显著.中西部地区表现为抑制作用,东部地区表现出促进作用,且在考虑了阶段差异和空间因素后依然显著;人口老龄化对技术创新的边际影响表现出阶段异质性,在创新水平较低时影响不显著,但随着创新水平的提升逐步增强;老龄化的技术创新效应强度在不同维度下差异显著,在经济维度下作用更为明显.     

区域金融发展与经济增长关系的动态面板检验

中国区域金融发展与经济增长具有正向关系,金融发展有助于加快城乡居民收入增长。随着金融发展水平的提高,资本积累的速度会减缓,同时金融发展对全要素生产率提高有显著正面作用,这意味着金融发展有助于推动区域经济增长方式从粗放型要素投入向集约型技术水平提升转变。未来,努力提升中西部地区金融发展的水平,将有助于中西部地区长期经济增长,加快中西部地区追赶东部地区的步伐。在控制一些变量后,中国区域经济增长表现出了条件收敛的特征。     

环境规制对企业绿色投资的门槛效应及异质性研究

本文以2010—2017年我国重污染行业上市公司数据为样本,通过面板门限模型实证研究了行业环境规制强度对于企业绿色投资的门槛效应,同时探究了这一影响在不同规模企业之间的异质性。研究结果显示:环境规制与企业绿色投资之间呈现倒U形的非线性关系。当环境规制小于一个临界值时,它与企业绿色投资之间呈正向关系,当环境规制超过这个临界值时,它与绿色投资之间呈反向关系;进一步分析发现,企业规模在小于第一个临界值时,环境规制对其绿色投资有促进作用,当介于第一个临界值和第二个临界值之间时,环境规制对于企业绿色投资有抑制作用,当大于第二个临界值时,环境规制对于企业绿色投资无显著影响。本文研究结果的启示是:政府在进行环境规制时也应该因企业制宜,同时找到环境规制的有效区间来发挥政策的最优潜力。     

Heterogeneity in the Effect of Managerial Equity Incentives on Firm Value

We document significant heterogeneity in the relation between chief executive officer (CEO) equity incentives and firm value using quantile regression. We show that CEO delta is more effective in the presence of ample investment opportunities, while CEO vega is more beneficial for firms lacking investment opportunities. Further, Tobin's Q increases in CEO delta for more risk‐tolerant firms but increases in CEO vega for more risk‐averse firms. We also observe that higher monitoring intensity after the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act reduces CEO delta's role in compensation. Risk aversion alters the optimal incentive‐value relation, and the nature of this relation also depends on the level of Tobin's Q.     

The Effect of Taxes on Corporate Financing Decisions: Evidence from a Panel of Italian Firms

This paper provides additional evidence on the relationship between corporate taxes and debt using panel data on Italian companies. The panel covers 1054 companies for the years 1982–1994.The paper follows the Graham-Shevlin methodology for calculating company specific marginal tax rates (MTR) relying on the non-linearity of corporate tax schedules resulting from company losses and the ensuing tax provisions (carry-forward and backward rules). In the period covered by the panel there were in Italy two taxes on corporate income (IRPEG and ILOR), with different loss carry-forward rules, whose statutory tax rates and tax bases changed several times. For these reasons the simulated MTRs display both cross-sectional and time-series variation.The paper tests whether taxes encourage the use of debt by analysing incremental financing decisions. In order to cope with the endogeneity of the MTR the paper considers two different specifications. The first uses the lagged value of the simulated MTR. The second employs the estimate of before-financing MTR proposed by Graham et al. (1998). Significant cross-sectional tax effects are identified under both specifications whereas time-series variation cannot be identified if due account is taken of firm-fixed tax effects.The paper also investigates whether personal taxes affect corporate financing decisions. The MTR may either overstate or understate the fiscal benefit of debt financing according to whether, at the personal level, interest income is taxed at a rate that is higher or lower than the tax rate on returns from common stocks. Differences in the dividend-payout ratio across companies and several reforms in interest, dividend and capital gains taxation provide sufficient cross-section and time-series variations to identify the effect of personal taxes on debt usage.     

中国产业结构优化升级引致的城镇化效应研究——一个省级面板分位数模型的实证检验

基于2000～2011年我国省级面板数据,采用面板分位数计量模型考察了产业结构引致的城镇化效应。研究发现,第三产业份额的估计参数显著为正,说明产业结构优化带来的城镇化效应是存在的。同时,这种效应对于处于不同分位数上的地区有较大差异:第三产业份额适中的省(市、自治区),城镇化效应最为明显;第三产业份额相对过高或过低的省(市、自治区),产业结构优化带来的城镇化效应较弱,估计参数呈现"两头小、中间大"的结果,显著、稳健为"倒U型"结构。     

金融发展对跨境人民币结算的空间溢出效应及异质性研究

基于2011-2019年我国30个省（区、市）平衡面板数据研究跨境人民币结算的空间集聚特征,使用空间计量模型实证分析金融发展对跨境人民币结算的空间溢出效应及异质性。发现省际跨境人民币结算呈现高-高、低-低的聚集趋势。通过构建多维度金融发展指标检验发现,金融发展规模、金融集聚、金融开放度均能有效推动跨境人民币结算,并呈现显著的正向溢出效应,金融开放度的影响效应更为明显。金融发展对跨境人民币结算在时间和空间上存在显著的异质性,正向溢出效应从2015年之后转变为负向溢出效应,通过更换权重矩阵发现结论依旧成立。     

医疗保障对居民消费水平的影响——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

近年来,我国居民消费持续走低,在GDP中所占的比重持续下降,消费需求不足已经成为制约我国经济发展的重要因素之一。本文立足于保险学和消费者理论的基础,使用我国31个省、自治区、直辖市的面板数据,系统研究医疗保障体系对居民消费的影响,发现基本医疗保险和商业健康保险对于居民消费均具有明显促进作用,其中城镇居民基本医保对消费的刺激作用大于新农合医保,商业健康保险的促进作用要大于城镇职工基本医保。在此基础上,提出了相应的政策建议。