Productivity growth and convergence in crop, ruminant, and nonruminant production: measurement and forecasts

Projections of future productivity growth rates in agriculture are an essential input for a great variety of tasks, ranging from development of an outlook for global commodity markets to the analysis of interactions between land use, deforestation, and ecological diversity. Yet solid projections for these variables have proven elusive—particularly on a global basis. This is due, in no small part, to the difficulty of measuring historical total factor productivity growth. Consequently, most productivity projections are based on partial factor productivity measures that can be quite misleading. The purpose of this work is to provide worldwide forecasts of agricultural productivity growth till the year 2040 based on the latest time series evidence on total factor productivity growth for crops, ruminants, and nonruminant livestock. The results suggest that most regions in the sample are likely to experience larger productivity gains in livestock than in crops. Within livestock, the nonruminant sector is expected to continue to be more dynamic than the ruminant sector. Given the rapid rates of productivity growth observed recently, nonruminant and crop productivity in developing countries may be converging to the productivity levels of developed countries. For ruminants, the results show that productivity levels in developing countries are likely to be diverging from those in developed countries.     

Future developments in global livestock and grains markets: the impacts of livestock productivity convergence in Asia-Pacific

Increasing livestock product consumption in many Asian countries has been accompanied by growth in some countries' imports of feedgrains for their domestic livestock sectors. This contributes to debate over future levels of grain imports. Yet projections often pay little attention to developments in livestock production. The impacts of technological catch-up in livestock production on trade in livestock and grains products among countries in the Asia-Pacific region are assessed. Tests are conducted of the hypothesis that productivity levels in the Asia-Pacific region are converging. Projections of livestock productivity are made and incorporated in a modified GTAP model. The consequences for regional and global trade in livestock and grains products are explored.     

The competitiveness situation of the EU meat processing and beverage manufacturing sectors

The status of competitiveness for the two most important food and beverage manufacturing sectors (meat processing and beverage manufacturing) in 13 EU countries is analysed empirically, using 1995-2002 Eurostat data. After a review of earlier agribusiness competitiveness studies, an industrial competitiveness index is proposed as a composite measure for multidimensional economic performance, covering profitability, productivity and output growth. The index approach enables relative competitiveness comparisons across industries, countries and over time. The results show that during 1999-2002, as compared to 1995-1998, for both sectors overall competitiveness in real terms slightly increased. At the same time, overall competitiveness also seems to have converged slightly across countries, implying that sector performance has become more similar. However, the two country rankings differ considerably, as do the change patterns during the analysed period.     

Sources and Measurement of Agricultural Productivity and Efficiency in Canadian Provinces: Crops and Livestock

This paper measures and assesses the variation in total factor productivity (TFP) growth among Canadian provinces in crops and livestock production over the period 1940–2009. It also determines if agricultural productivity growth in Canada has recently slowed down as indicated by earlier studies. The paper uses the stochastic frontier approach that incorporates inefficiency to decompose TFP growth into technical change (TC), scale effect (SE), and technical efficiency change. The results indicate that productivity changes were mainly driven by TCs for crops, while the productivity changes in livestock was mainly driven by SEs and technical progress. Though change in technical efficiency is mainly positive (except for New Brunswick and Nova Scotia), its contribution to productivity growth was very little for the provinces. We also found that over the entire period, the productivity growth rates for the crop subsector are on average higher for the Prairie provinces than for the Eastern and Atlantic provinces. On the other hand, the productivity growth rates in the livestock subsector are on average higher in the Eastern and Atlantic provinces than in the Prairie region with the exception of Manitoba. Finally, we found that though there is some evidence of a recent decline in productivity growth for the crops subsector, there is no such evidence in the livestock subsector.     

Using a Programming Approach to Measure International Agricultural Efficiency and Productivity

Multifactor agricultural productivity for seventy countries is calculated using a programming method. Productivity measures are divided into indices that measure technical efficiency and technical change. Agriculture in many developing countries is technically inefficient but technical change has had a greater impact on agricultural productivity. Multifactor productivity is declining in many developing countries where both agricultural output and the use of some agricultural inputs has rapidly grown. The level of education in a country and research services are factors which can explain differences in agricultural productivity growth between countries.     

Resource reallocation and its contribution to productivity growth in Australian broadacre agriculture

This article uses farm survey data to measure the contribution of cross‐farm resource reallocation to industry‐level productivity growth in Australian broadacre agriculture. We show that resource reallocation between farms mainly occurred between incumbent farms and between farms with different productivity growth. Resource reallocation is estimated to account for around half of the industry‐level productivity growth that occurred between 1978 and 2010, and its contribution appears to have increased over time. Moreover, we also show that resource reallocation effects vary across different inputs, partly due to their different mobility. This analysis improves our understanding of how reforms targeting structural adjustment – and the resource reallocation this generates – can influence aggregate productivity growth.     

A COMPARISON OF THREE NONPARAMETRIC MEASURES OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN EUROPEAN AND UNITED STATES AGRICULTURE

Productivity growth is an important source of improvements in the standard of living. In this paper, we compare three nonparametric measures of productivity, namely the Fisher, the Hulten and the Malmquist measure. Our application of these measures to the agricultural sectors of nine EC countries and the US over the period 1973 to 1989 yield similar patterns of productivity growth.     

Measuring agricultural total factor productivity in China: pattern and drivers over the period of 1978‐2016

The Chinese agricultural sector has experienced a substantial increase in total output since dramatic reforms were introduced in 1978. This paper uses the index method to measure agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) for China’s crop and livestock industries, based on the gross output model from 1978 to 2016. We construct production accounts for the industries using input‐output relationships for the 26 main agricultural commodities and commodity groups, which account for over 90 per cent of the total agricultural inputs and outputs. The results show that China’s agricultural TFP grew at a rate of approximately 2.4 per cent a year before 2009, which is comparable to the main OECD countries and is double the world average. TFP growth accounts for approximately 40 per cent of output growth, suggesting that input growth was the main driver of output growth in the past. However, average productivity growth slowed down after 2009 though it has gradually recovered since 2012. The slowdown reflects the emerging challenges to existing farm production practices in Chinese agriculture, suggesting the need for further institutional reform.     

Livestock in China: Commodity-Specific Total Factor Productivity Decomposition Using New Panel Data

Studies of total factor productivity (TFP) in livestock production are rare, but when available provide useful information especially in the context of developing countries such as China where livestock is becoming more important in the domestic agricultural economy. We estimate TFP for four major livestock products in China employing the stochastic frontier approach, and decompose productivity growth into its technical efficiency (TE) and technical progress components. Efforts are made to adjust and augment the available livestock statistics. The results show that growth in TFP and its components varied between the 1980s and the 1990s as well as over production structures. While there is evidence of considerable technical innovation in China's livestock sector, TE improvement has been relatively slow.     

Crops and Livestock Productivity Growth in the Prairies: The Impacts of Technical Change and Scale

This study undertakes a comprehensive analysis of productivity growth in Canadian Prairie primary agriculture from 1940 to 2004. Total factor productivity (TFP) is measured using Törnqvist‐Theil indexing procedures for the Prairie provinces (Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan). During the 1940–2004 period, productivity growth in Prairie agriculture grew at a rate of 1.56% a year. This aggregate measure does not indicate the substantial variations in productivity growth that have occurred between crops and livestock, between the provinces, and over time: productivity growth in crops is considerably higher than productivity growth in livestock; Manitoba and Saskatchewan display consistently higher productivity growth than Alberta; and from 1980 to 2004 livestock productivity growth increased considerably in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The productivity growth estimates are decomposed econometrically using a translog cost function to indicate the relative roles of technical change and scale effects. Productivity growth in crops has largely been the result of technical change while economies of scale have played a critical role in generating productivity growth in the livestock sector. La présente étude est une analyse approfondie de la croissance de la productivité du secteur de l’agriculture primaire dans les provinces des Prairies (Alberta, Manitoba et Saskatchewan), de 1940 à 2004. Nous avons mesuré la productivité totale des facteurs (PTF) à l’aide de l’indice Törnqvist‐Theil. De 1940 à 2004, la productivité de l’agriculture dans les provinces des Prairies a cru au rythme annuel de 1,56 p. 100. Cette mesure globale n’indique pas les variations substantielles de la croissance de la productivité entre le secteur des cultures et le secteur de l’élevage, entre les provinces, et au fil du temps. La croissance de la productivité dans le secteur des cultures a été considérablement plus élevée que celle observée dans le secteur de l’élevage. La croissance de la productivité au Manitoba et en Saskatchewan a été supérieure à celle observée en Alberta. De 1980 à 2004, la croissance de la productivité du secteur de l’élevage a enregistré une hausse considérable au Manitoba et en Saskatchewan. Nous avons décomposé la croissance de la productivité de façon économétrique à l’aide d’une fonction de coût de type translog afin de faire ressortir le rôle des changements technologiques et des économies d’échelle. Les changements technologiques ont joué un rôle important dans la croissance de la productivité du secteur des cultures, tandis que les économies d’échelle ont joué un rôle primordial dans la croissance de la productivité du secteur de l’élevage.     

Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China''s meat trade

The potential role of China as a major importer of agricultural products, and the likely impact on world markets has been a topic of considerable debate over the past decade. In this paper, we focus specifically on the livestock sector and develop a detailed analysis of productivity growth in China’s pig and poultry production along with projections of China’s likely meat trade in the year 2010. We use a general equilibrium model which permits us to explore the sensitivity of our projections to macro-economic uncertainty as well as uncertainty in livestock productivity growth rates. Our analysis shows that China’s net trade position is very sensitive to both of these factors. With high livestock productivity growth and a slow-down in the rest of the economy, China could be a substantial competitor in export markets by 2010. On the other hand, slow productivity growth in livestock production, coupled with a rapidly growing macro-economy could transform China into a major market for future meat exports.     

Comment on sustainability and innovation in staple crop production in the US Midwest

This comment highlight issues when comparing genetically modified (GM) crops to non-GM ones across countries. Ignoring structural differences between agricultural sectors and assuming common yield trajectories before the time of introduction of GM crops results on misestimating the effect of GM varieties. Further data collection and analyses should guide policy-makers to encourage diverse approaches to agriculture, rather than excluding specific technologies (like GM crops) from the onset.     

Total factor productivity change in China's grain production sector: 1980–2018

This study analyses changes in total factor productivity (TFP) of grains as an aggregate commodity and major grain crops including rice, wheat, and corn, using pooled provincial and time-series data from 1980 to 2018 for China. Results show that the growth of TFP in the grain sector was driven by technical improvements. Moreover, the grain output and wheat production benefited more from TFP growth, whereas the growth in the usage of inputs drove the growth in rice and corn production. Findings also indicate that the laissez-faire market-oriented policy led to a dramatic fall in output while the intervention-led policy resulted in a substantial rise in output, but neither of them fostered the growth of productivity. Conversely, the incentive-led policy in a market-oriented environment that raised the comparative profitability in grain production promoted the growth in both output and productivity in the grain sector. As the comparative advantage shifts away from agriculture in China, an appropriate support is thus necessary to stimulate farmers' incentive in growing grain crops.     

Sources of agricultural productivity growth and stagnation in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines sources of agricultural growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Growth in the stock of traditional inputs (land, labor, livestock) remains the dominant source of output growth. Growth in modern input use was of secondary importance, but still accounted for a 0.2-0.4% annual growth rate in three of four sub-regions. Econometric results support earlier studies that suggest that land abundance may be a constraint on land productivity growth. Growth in agricultural exports and historic caloric availability had positive impacts on productivity. These latter results suggest that positive feedback effects exist between export performance and food security on one hand and agricultural productivity on the other.     

International diffusion of gains from biotechnology and the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy

This paper analyses the impact of adopting or rejecting genetically modified (GM) crops in the European Union, taking into account the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). In this paper the productivity impact of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) differs across crops, taking factor biased technology change into account. The transfer of knowledge across countries is modelled as a process of endogenous knowledge spill-overs. Analysis with a multi-region applied general equilibrium model shows that the CAP protects farm income and production despite non-adoption of the more productive GM crops in the EU. The EU will forgo substantial benefits in terms of economic welfare if it bans GM imports.     

Market structure and the demand for veterinary services in India

The livestock sector is emerging as one of the fastest growing agricultural sub‐sectors in India and the expectations are that this growth could further accelerate due to growing incomes and the high income elasticity of demand for livestock products. Given the size and relatively equitable distribution of livestock in India, this presents an excellent opportunity for the country to boost rural incomes and accelerate the pace of poverty reduction. But, successful capitalisation of such opportunities requires a policy regime that facilitates growth in productivity at the farm level as well as in the processing sector. The productive potential of animals depends crucially on the quality of nutrition, genetic material and the animal health system, and on all these counts, India has a poor record. The public sector continues to be the primary provider of veterinary services, and the deteriorating fiscal situation of most state governments is making it extremely difficult to either expand the reach of these services or improve the quality of service delivery. Although, on efficiency grounds, there is good rationale for commercialised delivery of these services, serious concerns prevail in India about the equity implications of private sector delivery or full cost recovery within the government system. Evaluation of the desirability of user fees or private delivery of livestock services requires an understanding of the factors influencing the demand for these services. This paper examines the nature of demand for veterinary services in three states of India and presents first estimates of demand elasticities for veterinary services. The results indicate that price is not an important determinant of the decision to use these services. Also, practically no variation is found in price elasticities across income groups. These results suggest that the fears of sharp declines in the use of these services as a result of full cost recovery and/or private sector delivery are unfounded.     

Imported Intermediate Inputs and Firms’ Productivity Growth: Evidence from the Food Industry

Imported goods play a central role in determining the gains from trade. Using detailed trade and firm‐level data for Italy and France, we investigate the relationship between trade integration, imported intermediate inputs and firm performance in the food industry. Our main findings show that an increase in import competition spurs firm‐level productivity growth. Furthermore, the productivity growth effect attributable to imported intermediate inputs is significantly stronger than the effect due to imported final products. In addition, we find that new imported inputs are of particular importance, especially for Italian food firms, though less so for the French firms. Finally, the productivity growth effect of trade integration tends to be asymmetric across firms: more productive firms gain more from trade integration. These stylised facts have interesting policy implications.     

Structural transformation in emerging economies: leading sectors and the balanced growth hypothesis

The paper uses the World Input-Output Database to address patterns of structural transformation in BRIC countries, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico and Turkey. Sectoral drivers of aggregate labour productivity growth, and the relative importance of within-sector versus employment reallocation effects on aggregate labour productivity growth, are evaluated using growth accounting decomposition methods. Decomposition results are used to assess how patterns of structural transformation relate to macroeconomic performance in terms of aggregate labour productivity, output and employment growth. Together with the construction of ‘Hirschman compliance indices’, decomposition results are also used to shed light on the balanced versus unbalanced growth debates. The paper goes on to assess the extent of complementarities between manufacturing and information and communications technology-intensive advanced services through intermediate inputs, comparing the eight emerging countries with G7 countries over time.     

The effects of agricultural policy on supply and productivity: Evidence from differential changes in distortions

Incentives in agriculture are highly distorted. It has long been argued that these distortions were a key explanation for differences in supply and productivity across countries, but the empirical evidence is limited. We revisit this issue using data on policy distortions across 63 countries for the period 1961–2011. We estimate the effects of differential changes in agricultural distortions across countries on supply and productivity. We highlight concerns in our analysis and previous work about endogeneity that biases the estimated effect downward—countries that lose comparative advantage are likely to increase support for agriculture. We address these concerns by including country and region-time fixed effects, along with a rich set of controls. Overall, we find evidence that enhanced incentives through policy changes can increase the rate of production growth, with about half of the increase due to productivity increases. This result is strongest in Sub-Saharan Africa where anti-agricultural policies on exports were reduced and in Europe where pro-agricultural policies on imports were reduced, driven largely by external pressure. Endogeneity appears to be strongest in Asia where countries have followed the typical pattern of raising support for agriculture during industrialization due to a rising farm-urban income gap.