"贾府"败亡的经济原因分析

<红楼梦>中贾府败亡的深层次原因乃是出于生活奢侈、道德败坏和忽视了自身存在的经济基础.贾探春"兴利除宿弊"的失败,有着现实意义上的警示作用.     

The Decline of Secured Debt

The share of secured debt issued (as a fraction of total corporate debt) declined steadily in the United States over the twentieth century. This stems partly from financial development giving creditors greater confidence that high-quality borrowers will respect their claims even if creditors do not obtain security upfront. Consequently, such borrowers prefer retaining financial flexibility by not giving security up front. Instead, security is given contingently—when a firm approaches distress. This also explains why, superimposed on the secular decline, the share of secured debt issued is countercyclical.     

晋商衰败的历史迷思

在中国传统社会里,与现代银行最为相似的当然是晋商创办的"票号"。票号即票庄、汇兑庄,主要办理国内外汇兑和存放款业务,是为适应国内外贸易的发展而产生的。以前用起镖运送现银的办法,费时误事,开支大,不安全。自嘉庆、道光年间,民间有了信局,通行各省,官吏及商人迫切要求以汇兑取代运现,遂诞生了票号。票号的起源有几种说法,但通行的说法是:山西人雷履泰于道     

The Riskiness of REITs Surrounding the October 1997 Stock Market Decline

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are viewed as low risk/low return stocks that exhibit defensive stock characteristics. The stock market decline of October 1997 provides an excellent opportunity to examine the riskiness of REITs during high levels of market uncertainty. We find that the decline in REIT stock values was about one-half as large as the decline of non-REIT stocks. Additionally, market uncertainty on the event day was shown with an increased bid-ask spread for all stocks. On the following day when the market decline was partially reversed, the bid-ask spreads continued to increase for non-REIT stocks, but declined for REIT stocks. This suggests that REITs, like defensive stocks in general, are less prone to significant declines during market-wide disturbances. Also, we order stocks based on the standard deviation measures of risk and show that this risk measure explains the cross-section of returns for non-REITs but is not valid for REITs.     

The Voluntary Restructuring of Large Firms In Response to Performance Decline

Much of the research on corporate restructuring has examined the causes and aftermath of extreme changes in corporate governance such as takeovers and bankruptcy. In contrast, we study restructurings initiated in response to product market pressures by “normal” corporate governance mechanisms. Such “voluntary” restructurings, motivated by the discipline of the product market and internal corporate controls, will play a relatively more important role in the 1990s due to a weakening in the discipline of the takeover market. Our data suggest that the firms retrenched quickly and, on average, increased their focus. There is no evidence of abnormally high levels of forced turnover in top managers. There is, however, a significant and rapid cut of 5% in the labor force. Further, the cost of goods sold to sales and labor costs to sales ratios both decline rapidly, more than 5% in the first two years after the negative earnings. The firms cut research and development, increased investment, and also reduced their debt/asset level by over 8% in the first year after the negative earnings. We also document the reasons management and analysis reported for the negative earnings. Overwhelmingly the firms blame bad economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, foreign competition.     

美国:银行减少与分支行增加

纵观几十年来英国银行业的发展史。可以发现一个有趣的现象:银行数量持续减少、集中度逐步提高,而银行分支机构却在不断增加。令人不解的是,在网上银行方兴未艾与ATM日益普及的今天,为何银行分支机构依然活力四射?     

物价上涨、增长衰退与我国货币政策的有效性分析

近段时期以来,物价上涨、人民币升值以及经济增长趋缓的压力开始成为货币政策调控的焦点所在.宏观领域流动性过剩的现实实际上是我国货币供求非均衡现象的反映,本文从理论分析和实证检验的角度,通过对流动性过剩背景下货币供给与物价和产出相互关系的理论分析和检验,指出了目前经济条件下我国货币政策调控面临的困境,并针对这些问题就提高我国货币政策调控的有效性提出了几点建议.