A multiperiod model for a training program

This paper is concerned with formulating and optimizing a multiperiod planning model for a manpower training program. Firstly, a time-dependent feed-forward model which traces eligible individuals through an educational (training) program and ultimately to a state of employment or unemployment is developed. The objective function is composed of an educational cost component and a manpower shortage or surplus cost component. Thus, the student (or trainee) optimal acceptance policy is derived. It is also proven that a one-state variable dynamic programming algorithm is much more efficient than a two-state variable algorithm in arriving at the optimal solution.     

A systems approach to integrate manpower planning and operation

Manpower planning frequently involves aggregated planning. This paper addresses the importance of linking manpower planning with operational process. We developed a systems approach to integrate the gross level of manpower planning and the detailed level of policy execution. This integrated system could improve the effectiveness of policy making.     

Tracking corporate tigers in the seventies

Fast track programs frequently follow “no track” programs and are started when management suddenly realizes that it cannot fill its need for promotable talent. This is not the best motive for such a program, but because there is often inadequate or ineffective planning in normal manpower development, career guidance, and manpower planning, a fast track program can serve as a step towards broader-based, more inclusive manpower planning and development activities.     

Manpower targets and educational investments

Quadratic programming can be useful to compute the optimal investment trajectory for an education system which is planned on the base of manpower targets. The computation of optimal investments required to approach manpower targets more closely becomes non trivial if the budget available is insufficient to meet manpower targets exactly, or if the manpower target trajectory is erratic.The quadratic programming problem consists of three components: (1) an optimization criterion which reflects the objective to minimize the squared deviation of actual manpower available from the manpower target; (2) a set of time difference equations which reflect the flow of students, the manpower stock flow and the flow of investments in the education subsystem; (3) a constraint on the budget, available for this branch of education over a planning period.This education investment problem is worked out for middle level technical manpower training in Bangladesh.     

Interindustry analysis for regional growth and development: The dynamics of manpower issues

Simulations of two scenarios to illustrate processes of regional interindustrial growth and development suggest the dynamics of manpower issues. Using the core of the Sequential Interindustry Model, SIM, the dynamics by which interindustry production supplies continuing final markets is presented and the resulting industry production chronologies illustrated. The latter are transformed into employment chronologies from which labor requirements are computed as distributions of potential jobs by job duration and job starts.Adjustments in potential jobs to represent the dynamic linkages between manpower demand and supply in fluctuating labor markets are discussed as an extension of adaptive behavior in SIM. An encompassing impact dynamics framework for manpower assessment is suggested, including examination of management options of both demand and supply for timely impact mitigation.     

A mathematical programming model for planning training opportunities in relation to manpower targets for development

One major obstacle to the implementation of development projects in many developing countries is the inadequate supply of skilled manpower. Thus efficient planning of training opportunities to supply the requisite quantity and quality of skills in phase with project implementation is an important problem. This paper develops a mathematical programming model for planning training opportunities in relation to manpower targets determined for development projects. The projects are assumed to have been selected according to some criteria of desirability deriving either from social cost-benefit analysis or national goals. The model permits alternative avenues of developing skilled manpower to be investigated with a view to ensuring the availability of qualified personnel given a stated work/task schedule, over a period of time, while attempting to minimize costs to the manpower supply system.     

Systems analysis approach to research on German education

The paper shows some of the experience of the empirical research on demographic accounting which is being carried out at Heidelberg University, F.R. of Germany. The first part of the paper presents the system including the subsystems (population system, educational system, manpower system). It contains some suggestions how to measure the connections between the subsystems. The first measure is a measure of substitution, the second deals with the degree of general use of a certain educational level in terms of occupation.

In the second part of the paper special reference is given to the empirical Heidelberg studies of the educational subsystem. At present the main purpose of the project is to try out the functional relations between the various transition rates involved in the system. There-upon a sensibility analysis will be developed which provides empirical data as to which transition rates are of strategic relevance for educational planning. Here the transition rates are defined as dependent variables, certain influencing factors or determinants as independent variables. Empirical results of the structural analysis will be published at the end of 1968, those of the sensibility analysis at the end of 1969.     

Migration,unemployment dispersion and the Phillips curve

Policy-makers have long known that the complexity of the labor market creates the potential for a wide variety of strategies to be utilized to improve the ‘wage inflation-unemployment’ trade-off. This research assesses the potential effect of two unemployment-reducing strategies — reducing the dispersion of unemployment rates and increasing labor-force migration. The results of the regression analysis suggest that an approach which encourages labor-force migration would be more efficient than the present shot-gun approach of CETA and other manpower programs. Cost estimates also suggest that it is more expensive to improve the Phillips curve through employment expanding expenditures than it is to improve the curve through migration inducement.     

Economic growth and the development of educational facilities—II

The present study provides several simple mathematical expressions which interrelate many of the more important factors associated with the planning of growth of educational facilities. The factors considered include rate of economic development, attrition in graduates available to the labor market due to dropouts, continuation of education, and those'entering the teaching profession. The rate of growth is discussed in terms of the use of teaching devices, on the job training, and the availability of supporting facilities. A linear and exponential phase of growth is recognized.     

FORMASY FOrecasting and Recruitment in MAnpower Systems

In this paper the tools are developed for forecasting and recruitment planning in a graded manpower system. Basic features of the presented approach are:
- the system contains several grades or job categories in which the employees stay for a certain time before being promoted or leaving the system,
- promotability and leaving rate for any employee depend on time spent in the job category and personal qualifications (like education, experience, age),
- recruitment is not necessarily restricted to the lowest level in the system,
- several planning aims and restrictions are allowed.
The approach is based on a generalized Markov model for the dynamic behaviour of an individual employee. A forecasting procedure and a recruitment-scheduling procedure are based on this Markov model.     

面向企业人员数量与结构规划的工作量估算研究

有效控制企业人工成本,能够极大地促进企业市场目标的实现。人工成本控制需要对企业人力资源的数量与结构进行合理规划。科学合理的工作量估算是人力资源数量与结构规划的前提。文章讨论了一种针对企业技术研发和职能管理人员的工作量估算方法,该方法可制订精确到月份的企业人员需求与配置计划,可以大大提高企业员工使用效率,从而提升企业人工成本的投资回报率。     

Inter-threshold resource planning for public higher educational systems

Efforts to design comprehensive systems of long-range resource planning for public colleges and universities in the United States are frustrated in the sense that most states follow a social demand approach to educational planning. Literally thousands of decision makers—including students, parents, formal administrators and faculty members-affect the overall behavior of the system. Nevertheless, more and more states are creating centralized higher educational coordinating agencies to conduct long-range planning and to recommend policies for the future development of the higher educational system. This paper describes research which has attempted to link together three decision thresholds in the resource planning process. These are (a) academic departments or colleges which are combined into (b) a total college or university, which is one part of (c) a state system of higher education containing several colleges and universities.     

A microcomputer-based decision-support system for manpower planning

The paper reviews the field of manpower-planning modelling in South Africa and the UK. Thereafter the design of a microcomputer-based simulation manpower model is discussed. The output generated is designed to assist the manpower planner in making more effective and efficient manpower decisions. The emphasis of the modelling approach is on decision support where the intention is to enhance the quality of the information base upon which the final decisions are taken by the manpower planner.     

Migration of young labor force entrants

The analysis focuses on what factors encourage or discourage migration among recent high school graduates. Youth represent an important group to study because they have the highest rates of both job and location mobility in the U.S. population. Of interest to policy-makers is the role of migration in the school-to-work transition and its more general role as a manpower allocation mechanism.

The empirical specification is based on a theoretical model of individual decision-making in Black [1]. A logit model of the probability of migration is estimated separately by elapsed time since graduation, sex, and marital status. The data source consists of the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 that has been merged with local labor market data from the 1970 decennial census. The analysis yields several insights into the determinants of migration: local labor market conditions, an individual's employment success, migration experience before and after high school graduation, and personal characteristics such as aptitude, sex, family status, school experience, and family background.     

人力资本价值实现与政策的关系研究

人力资本理论提出后,人力资本价值特别是异质型的企业家价值逐渐受到社会的关注和重视。在我国建立现代企业制度的改革进程中,年薪制,职工持股制,股权奖励多种新的收入分配形式出现在工资制度中。企业工资制度的改革,显示了政策对人力资本收益权的支持力度,按生产要素进行分配的趋势。政策的支撑,使人力资本的收益渐趋近于人力资本的真实价值。     

Some models for simulating canadian manpower flows and related systems

The paper reports on a series of models designed for computer simulation of Canadian manpower flows at different levels of unemployment, either alone or in conjunction with related population flows. The models are disaggregated macromodels of the state-transition variety. One relates to annual flows, the others to monthly flows.The models have been used for various purposes, including simulation analyses of the effects of changes in economic conditions and government policy variables on two government programs, namely unemployment insurance and manpower training. Other applications are possible and, in general, the basic approach underlying the models is considered to have much potential for manpower policy analysis.     

制度变迁与城市规划的组织变革

为降低交易费用、促进分工、推动经济增长,社会发生从计划经济体制向市场经济体制的制度变迁.在制度变迁过程中,城市规划也需要支付必要的市场交易成本.政府要在招商引资中通过城市规划主导城市空间演化方向,在城市经营中加强成本意识、营销意识.为适应制度变迁和公共服务的要求,城市规划的管理和编制都面临组织变革.     

Towards a national educational planning model

The reflections of this paper are based upon some of the experiences of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development since work was started on educational planning in the late 1950's. It attempts to show how this work has led almost inevitably to the adoption of a “systems approach” to educational planning over a large part of the O.E.C.D. programme. The paper is confined to educational planning activities in which the O.E.C.D. has had some involvement and deals with only a part of those activities—national educational planning within the context of economic and social development.     

转型期中国劳动争议的影响因素分析

伴随中国经济的市场化转型,劳动关系双方的矛盾冲突不断增加.本文选取1999 ～ 2010年中国内地31个省市作为样本,以劳动争议案件发生频率作为衡量劳动关系状况的一个综合性指标,实证考察其变动情况、省际差异及变动机理.结果表明,中国劳动争议案件发生频率存在较大省际差异,从全国样本考察结果看,经济结构调整、经济体制转轨、经济规模扩张显著导致劳资关系紧张;经济发展水平、经济增长速度、劳动关系市场化运行程度显著缓和劳资关系;城镇登记失业率、劳动者受教育水平对劳动关系的影响较复杂.分地区样本考察结果表明,多数因素的影响存在鲜明的区域差异.经济转型及增速下降在短期内加剧了劳资矛盾,但长期来看则是增强了经济增长对就业数量和质量的带动作用,有利于实现劳动关系和谐发展.