我国当前物价走势与宏观调控

当前我国物价形势分析以居民消费价格指数(CPI)衡量的全国物价总水平上涨较快2007年1～9月,我国居民消费价格总水平分别上涨了2.2%、2.7%、3.3%、3.0%、3.4%、4.4%、5.6%、6.5%、6.2%,物价水平逐月上升。与2006年同期相比,2007年1～6月全国居民消费价格总水平上涨3.2%;1～7月上涨3.5%;1～8月上涨3.9%;1～9月     

电价和水资源价格变动及其对物价影响

随着我国经济的快速发展，水力和电力资源供求矛盾日益突出，电力和水资源价格改革将成为2005年我国价格改革的两大重点。为此，我们对辖区电力、水资源价格调整情况及其对物价走势的影响开展了专题调查。     

龙年物价运行回顾 蛇年物价走势前瞻

去年，在国家加大教育、住房、医疗等改革力度及西部开发投资建设的政策措施作用下，全国物价形势发了积极变化，突出表现在：2月份全国居民消费价格同比上升0.7%，结束了长达24个月下降的局面；5月起物价正式平稳浮出水面，从而使得全年居民消费价格由前两年的下降转为上升0.4%。贵州省物价形势与全国大体一致，2月份全省居民消费价格比上升0.4%。贵州省物价形势与全国大体一致，2月份全省居民消费价格同比上升0.3%，结束长达11个月下降的局面；9月起物价正式平稳浮出水面，由于我省物价正式浮出水面的时间晚于全国，全年居民消费价格比上年仍然下降0.5%，但比上年0.8%的降幅缩小0.3个百分点，实现了年初提出了的物价指数要高于上一年的调控目标。     

从当前物价趋势看央行货币政策取向

近一段时间以来，我国的市场物价由过去较长的时间的低迷善墨迹为持续上升的态势，由此引发了人们对我国通货膨胀压力及国民经济发展的一系列思考，而以保持人民币币值稳定、促进物价稳定和经济增长为目标的中央银行的政策取向自然成为社会广泛关注的焦点。本文通过当前我国市场物价变动趋势和宏观经济发展的分析，探究人民银行下一阶段的货币政策取向。     

当前物价走向与物价变动会计运用

最近一段时间以来国内物价一直在快速上扬，2004年1—7月中国居民消费物价指数(CPI)上涨3．8％，商品零售价格总水平上涨2．6％，工业生产资料流通环节价格总水平上涨14％，粮食价格上涨了32％；分类别来看：食品价格上涨9.5％，医疗保健及个人用品价格上涨0．3％，娱乐教育、文化用品及服务价格上涨0.9％，居住价格上涨3．7％。这是1997年以来同期最高涨幅。尤其是7月份上涨了5．31％，     

对当前新疆物价运行情况分析及走势判断

新疆作为经济落后地区,2007年下半年以来,物价水平呈持续上涨态势,全年涨幅达5．5％,创近十年来新高,高出全国0．7个百分点;2008年1—2月,新疆CPI同比上涨10．7％,涨幅再创1997年以来新高,通胀压力有所加大。本文就当前新疆物价上涨的特征及原因进行了分析,对物价走势做出相关判断,并提出相关政策建议。     

温和型通货膨胀：对当前物价形势的思考

近期国内物价变化情况分析 前段时期，主流看法认为当前国内物价上涨是结构性的，90％是由粮食及随后的肉禽蛋类价格快速上涨引起的，随着2004年夏粮丰收、秋粮上市，下半年价格指数会稳中有降。但事实是，近几个月来不仅粮食价格未见回调，2004年上半年已经得到控制的钢材、水泥等原材料价格也出现反弹，加上国际油价高企带来的燃料价格攀升，全面的物价上涨势头正在显现。据统计，近几个月来全国原材料、     

对当前市场物价走势分析

近年来,我们发现身边的物价正在悄然上涨,无论是吃饭、穿衣、住房、日常用品,只要是老百姓生活中需要的无一不在涨价。物价,已成为当前社会上的热门话题。我国的价格改革由来已久,理顺了一些不合理的商品价格和比价关系,通过改革,促进了生产,活跃了流通,繁荣了市场经济,取得了显著的效果。     

Target price forecasts: The roles of the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment

This paper reveals that in addition to fundamental factors, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment play an important role in analysts’ target price formation. Analysts’ forecasts of short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth are shown to be important explanatory variables for target prices; equally, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment are also shown to explain target price levels and especially target price biases. Our analysis additionally reveals that analysts place greater weight on these two non-fundamental factors in settings with greater task complexity and to some extent in those with greater resource constraints. Conversely, on balance, the results suggest that this increased reliance does not translate into an increased impact per unit of each non-fundamental factor on forecast bias. Finally, our results show that target prices are useful in predicting future stock returns beyond earnings forecasts and commonly used risk proxies. However, in an internally consistent fashion, the informativeness of target prices for future returns is significantly reduced when greater weight is placed on either the 52-week high or recent investor sentiment in the target price formation process.     

人民币对外汇期权业务发展现状及对策建议

2011年4月人民币对外汇期权业务的推出,标志着我国外汇市场已初步形成完整的基础类汇率衍生产品体系,为外汇市场的进一步创新发展奠定了基础。目前期权业务尚处于起步阶段,业务发展不够活跃,文章以湖北省为例,结合对辖内开办此项业务的金融机构的走访调研,试图分析期权业务发展现状的原因,并提出相关对策建议,以期促进期权业务的进一步发展。     

The price of power: The valuation of power and weather derivatives

Pricing contingent claims on power presents numerous challenges due to (1) the unique behavior of power prices, and (2) time-dependent variations in prices. We propose and implement a model in which the spot price of power is a function of two state variables: demand (load) and fuel price. In this model, any power derivative price must satisfy a PDE with boundary conditions that reflect capacity limits and the non-linear relation between load and the spot price of power. Moreover, since power is non-storable and demand is not a traded asset, the power derivative price embeds a market price of risk. Using inverse problem techniques and power forward prices from the PJM market, we solve for this market price of risk function. During 1999–2001, the upward bias in the forward price was as large as $50/MWh for some days in July. By 2005, the largest estimated upward bias had fallen to $19/MWh. These large biases are plausibly due to the extreme right skewness of power prices; this induces left skewness in the payoff to short forward positions, and a large risk premium is required to induce traders to sell power forwards. This risk premium suggests that the power market is not fully integrated with the broader financial markets.     

当前宏观经济分析和政策前瞻

文章综合分析今年以来我国经济运行情况后指出,当前我国宏观经济增长的内生动力尚未真正确立,结合新的外部冲击,我国经济增长的下行风险有所显现;随着国内外需求放缓,整体价格水平特别是PPI将出现回落,但粮食、生猪等部分食品价格存在较大上涨压力。总体看,短期政策无论放松或收紧都不具备大动的条件,需要在密切关注经济形势变化和前期政策效果的基础上及时动态微调。     

On the law of one price

We consider the standard discrete-time model of a frictionless financial market and show that the law of one price holds if and only if there exists a martingale density process with strictly positive initial value. In contrast to the classical no-arbitrage criteria, this density process may change its sign. We also give an application to the CAPM.Received: November 2003, Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 60G44JEL Classification: G13, G11Freddy Delbaen: This research was done during the stay of the author at Université de Franche-Comté.     

中国经济的发展阶段研究

经济发展是指随着经济增长而出现的经济、社会和政治结构的变化。本文将经济发展研究分成收入、城市化、产业、消费和科技五个方面,运用多种参数指标,立足世界经济的未来与过去,得出我国经济发展的阶段、特点和规律。作者根据国内外关于一国经济发展阶段和中国发展阶段的现实,选择工业化和城市化作为核心指标,对比美国经济发展历程,得出我国经济发展处于“工业化和城市化‘双中期’区间”的判断;并在此基础上分析了“‘双中期’区间”最新时点的关键特征;概括出我国经济发展的双重性规律,提出了中国经济发展战略思路及政策建议。     

Estimating price trends for residential property: A comparison of repeat sales and assessed value methods

The repeat sales methodology for estimating residential price indices is based on actual appreciation of individual properties. On the other hand, the repeat sales method wastes data, typically discarding a large percentage of all sales. This article explores two issues related to the subsample of repeat sales. First, are paired sales representative of the entire population of properties that sold? Second, is there evidence that sample selectivity biases the price trend estimates? Evidence from five metropolitan areas supports a negative answer to the first question and the second question. It appears that a “lemon” or “starter home” effect causes repeat residential sales to be a biased subsample of all transactions. Cumulative price trends for the repeat subsamples can differ from the full samples over periods ranging from two to ten quarters. While short-term price trends can differ widely, there are no systematic differences among the samples over long periods of time (e.g., three years or more).     

Semiparametric Estimates of the marginal price of floorspace

Smoothing splines are used to generate a nonparametric response of housing price to floorspace size. A rising marginal price is estimated. Comparison to common parametric forms indicates that the semilog is reasonably close to the nonparametric form.     

财险市场价格竞争有效性研究

我国国内财产保险业务自1980年恢复以来虽然取得了很大成绩,但依旧存在较多问题,特别是市场集中度偏高,导致市场竞争长期处于低水平竞争状态。本文根据市场份额将我国财险公司划分为在位者与竞争者两类,应用Stackelberg博弈模型,对在位者与竞争者的保险价格竞争从单时期和多时期两个层次进行分析,得出在财险市场中,单纯的价格竞争是无效的,并建议从产品和服务的创新、投资、成本管理和客户信息搜集与管理四方面协助价格竞争的展开。