Systematic risk, and oil price and exchange rate sensitivities in Asia-Pacific stock markets

This paper examines the relationship between beta risk and realized stock index return in the presence of oil and exchange rate sensitivities for 15 countries in the Asia-Pacific region using the international factor model. Thirteen of the 15 countries have the expected beta signs and show significant sensitivity to domestic risk when the world stock market is in both up and down modes. In terms of oil sensitivity, only the Philippines and South Korea are oil-sensitive to changes in the oil price in the short run, when the price is expressed in local currency only. Basically no country shows sensitivity to oil price measured in US dollar regardless whether the oil market is up or down. Nine countries are affected by changes in the exchange rate. In terms of relative factor sensitivity distribution, one is willing to conclude that these stock markets are more conditionally sensitive to local currency oil price changes than to beta risk wherever the relationships are significant.     

Price Limits and Beta

Price limits, which restrict daily price changes of a stock within a pre-specified range, make the stochastic properties of observed returns deviate from those of true returns, and hence lead to a biased estimates of the market model parameters. To investigate the impacts of price limits on the market model parameters, especially on beta, the restricted regression analysis is performed as well as the two-pass regression analysis used in examining the intervalling effect bias on beta. Empirical results suggest that, when prices are observed within a pre-specified bound, the estimates of beta using ordinary least squares substantially understate the true beta and suffer more from the intervalling effect bias. However, the delay effect of price limits on the adjustment of a security's price does not last too long, that is, remaining information is reflected on the subsequent day's stock prices very rapidly.     

Market Reform and Efficiency: The Case of KOSPI200 Options

The Korean government and exchange have identified a need to regulate excessive speculative trading and to protect domestic individual investors from foreign and professional traders. As such, they have proposed an options market reform that requires higher levels of margin accounts for options trading and that increases the basic options multipliers in the KOSPI200 options market. This study examines how this market reform affects the price disagreement and adjustment behaviors of the index options market. Our analyses indicate that the efficiency and information quality of out-of-the-money options trades have increased since the reform took effect.     

金融市场对货币调控的反应与影响研究

2007年,随着经济金融形势的不断变化,我国货币政策紧缩程度不断加强。文章回顾了我国货币调控对货币、债券、外汇、股票这四个金融市场的影响,运用统计模型和一些量化工具描述了货币调控对各市场的影响程度;从资产负债运营和流动性管理等角度反映了本轮货币调控给各类金融机构带来的影响差别,并提出相关政策建议。     

价格异常与不对称相关结构下套期保值策略——来自亚洲股指期货市场的实证

在不对称相关结构下,尾部区域期货和现货价格联动模式异常复杂,传统套期保值策略在极端价格行为下将不可避免地出现系统性偏差。为此,恰当的连接函数被引入描述尾部区域的价格联动模式,依据MV框架构建局部套期保值策略,以解决极端价格行为下的套期保值问题。对亚洲市场日经指数和恒生指数期货套期保值的实证研究表明:(1)采用Rotated Gumbel连接函数,在传统MV策略(全局策略)下,虽然在降低套保组合方差方面没有明显优势,但日经指数和恒生指数期货的套期保值成本将显著下降,套保组合收益/组合方差的比率显著上升;(2)如果套期保值者能够对未来形成可靠预期,套期保值的成本将进一步下降,并且现货价格风险也得到有效控制。     

Prices and returns on paintings: An exercise on how to price the priceless

Art is priceless, but paintings, and other objects, have been sold on markets since the time of the Roman Empire. In this paper, we describe a method for constructing a price index for paintings and compare this index to the indices of various financial markets. In particular, we discuss whether the price of art is related to financial markets, whether the art market is weakly efficient, and whether it is more or less risky than financial markets.     

On the law of one price

We consider the standard discrete-time model of a frictionless financial market and show that the law of one price holds if and only if there exists a martingale density process with strictly positive initial value. In contrast to the classical no-arbitrage criteria, this density process may change its sign. We also give an application to the CAPM.Received: November 2003, Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 60G44JEL Classification: G13, G11Freddy Delbaen: This research was done during the stay of the author at Université de Franche-Comté.     

Sources of the stock price fluctuations in Chinese equity market

This paper proposes a latent factor approach based on a state–space framework in order to identify which factor, if any, dominates price fluctuations in the Chinese stock markets. We also illustrate the connection of such stock price decomposition with several general equilibrium asset pricing models and show that the decomposition results can potentially offer useful insights with regard to the empirical relevance of asset pricing models. We use quarterly data of the Chinese A-Share equity market over the period 1995Q3–2011Q1 and find that the estimates of the state–space model suggest that the expected return is the primary driving force behind price fluctuations in the Chinese stock market. We show that the time-varying expected returns appear to be counter-cyclical and this result seems to be consistent with the habit formation model of Campbell and Cochrane [1999. By force of habit: A consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior. Journal of Political Economy 107, no. 2: 205–51.]. However, we also note that there is a great deal of uncertainty with respect to this variance decomposition due to the resulting small signal-to-noise ratio in the estimated state–space model.     

Religion and stock price crash risk:Evidence from China

This paper investigates whether religious traditions influence firm-specific crash risk in China.Using a sample of A-share listed firms from 2003 to 2013,we pro...     

Customer anger at price increases, changes in the frequency of price adjustment and monetary policy

While firms claim to be concerned with consumer reactions to price increases, these often do not cause large reductions in purchases. The model developed here fits this by letting consumers react negatively only when they become convinced that prices are unfair. This can explain price rigidity, though its implications are not identical to those of existing models of costly price adjustment. In particular, the frequency of price adjustment can depend on economy-wide variables observed by consumers. This has implications for the effects of monetary policy and can explain why inflation does not fall immediately after a monetary tightening.     

Stock price and systematic risk effects of discontinuation of corporate R&D programs

We extend the evidence on whether investors impound efficiently into stock prices new disclosures about corporate R&D programs. We find that firms that disclose the discontinuation of some of their R&D programs experience a significant negative announcement-period stock price response which is worse for growth stocks, for small-size firms, and for firms with low operating cash flow. We find no evidence that R&D discontinuing firms experience an event-induced change in their systematic risk. We find evidence of a one-year-long price reversal; however, it is not robust to controlling for possible risk dimensions for firms with R&D capital that the three-factor model does not capture. Evidently, investors' initial response at disclosures of discontinuation of corporate R&D programs is efficient.     

International financial integration through the law of one price: The role of liquidity and capital controls

This paper takes advantage of the fact that some stocks trade both in domestic and international markets to characterize the degree of international financial integration. The paper argues that the cross-market premium (the ratio between the domestic and the international market price of cross-listed stocks) provides a valuable measure of international financial integration and the effectiveness of capital controls. Using autoregressive (AR) models to estimate convergence speeds and non-linear threshold autoregressive (TAR) models to identify non-arbitrage bands, the paper shows that price deviations across markets are rapidly arbitraged away and bands are narrow, particularly so for liquid stocks. The paper also shows that regulations on cross-border capital flows effectively segment domestic markets. As expected, the effects of both types of capital controls are asymmetric but in the opposite direction: controls on outflows induce positive premia, while controls on inflows generate negative premia. Both vary with the intensity of capital controls.     

Where do betas come from? Asset price dynamics and the sources of systematic risk

In this article we break asset's betas with common factors intocomponents attributable to news about future cash flows, realinterest rates, and excess returns. To achieve this decomposition,we use a vector autoregressive time-series model and an approximatelog-linear present value relation. The betas of industry andsize portfolios with the market are largely attributed to changingexpected returns. Betas with inflation and industrial productionreflect opposing cash flow and expected return effects. We alsoshow how asset pricing theory restricts the expected excessreturn components of betas.     

Risk Aversion,Uncertain Information,and Market Efficiency

Abstract. We reexamine and extend tests of the uncertain information hypothesis (UIH) proposed by Brown, Harlow, and Tinic (1988, 1993). We find that their empirical results are sensitive to the sampling procedure employed and that their particular methodology does not sufficiently distinguish between event and nonevent periods. When the sampling procedure is modified to identify only relatively large, isolated events, the test results generally do not support the UIH. Instead, significant price shocks are consistently followed by short-lived price reversals. We observe this behavior following positive and negative events regardless of whether the event is classified as risk increasing or risk decreasing.     

Oil price shocks and American depositary receipt stock returns

In this paper we examine the impact of oil price shocks on twelve countries American Depositary Receipt (ADR) returns using monthly data from 1999.01 to 2014.12. The results show that oil price shocks have a positive and statistically significant impact on ADR return in all twelve countries. These results are robust to the inclusion of other explanatory variables such as oil price volatility and the spillover of the United States stock market. Further analysis shows that this effect is stronger in the post financial crisis time period compared to the pre-financial crisis time period.     

On Some alternative estimates of the adjustment coefficient in risk theory

Abstract

Recently, Csörgö and Steinebach proposed to estimate the adjustment coefficient in risk theory via a quantile type estimate based upon a sequence of intermediate order statistics. In the present paper, further alternative estimators are discussed which may be viewed as convex combinations of a Hill type and a quantile type estimate. Consistency is proved and rates of convergence are studied. Some simulation results are presented to illustrate the finite sample behavior of the proposed estimators.     

Oil price and FX-rates dependency

Oil prices and exchange rates against the dollar have both experienced long swings over the recent decade. Regardless of the great amount of research, some issues are still open to debate. In this vein, this paper focuses on the evolution of the relationship between oil prices and dollar exchange rates of 12 oil exporting and oil importing countries based on a dynamic copula approach. We use daily data for two 5-year periods between 2003 and 2013, taking the collapse of Lehman Brothers as the dividing point. Our results have four main implications: first, the intensity of relationship between oil prices and FX-rates has increased over time even if the peak of the financial crisis is included. Second, the increased tail dependency shows that extreme events are likelier to occur simultaneously for both series. Third, the dependency has become more dynamic after the financial crisis and is therefore better characterized by time-varying copulas. Finally, currencies of oil importers and oil exporters display a different dependency structure against the US dollar in the case of rising oil prices with the latter appreciating and the former depreciating.     

Liquidity risk,price impacts and the replication problem

We extend a linear version of the liquidity risk model of Çetin et al. (Finance Stoch. 8:311–341, 2004) to allow for price impacts. We show that the impact of a market order on prices depends on the size of the transaction and the level of liquidity. We obtain a simple characterization of self-financing trading strategies and a sufficient condition for no arbitrage. We consider a stochastic volatility model in which the volatility is partly correlated with the liquidity process and show that, with the use of variance swaps, contingent claims whose payoffs depend on the value of the asset can be approximately replicated in this setting. The replicating costs of such payoffs are obtained from the solutions of BSDEs with quadratic growth, and analytical properties of these solutions are investigated.     

Single-family housing transactions: Seller motivations, price, and marketing time

Factors such as relocation and financial distress motivate the seller of a single-family home to facilitate sale by posting a lower list price, communicating the motivations to the marketplace, or offering sales incentives to agents. Impacts of seller motivations on selling prices and marketing times are estimated using data for single-family homes sold in Arlington, Texas, from 1991 to 1993. Results show selling price discounts for houses with sellers who are either eager, motivated, or anxious, houses with sellers who have relocated, foreclosures, and vacant houses. Only foreclosure houses show the reduced marketing time expected for properties with motivated sellers. The results further suggest that the list price is the seller's primary mechanism for selling the property. Reducing the list price fosters faster sales at the sacrifice of the selling price.