社保基金偿付能力风险理论分析与实证检验

欧盟针对保险公司偿付能力实行的新政"Solvency Ⅱ"已经开始在欧盟范围内运行,由此掀起了全球商业保险与社会保险偿付能力风险的变革,以抵御国际金融危机给保险业带来的巨大威胁。我国社保基金管理由于在资金来源和运营管理上与欧盟国家存在很大区别,且国内学者还没有高度重视偿付能力风险问题。因此,从理论上对社保基金偿付能力风险进行概念界定,提出相关指标体系,并结合社保基金收入与支出的时间序列建立ARMA模型,对偿付能力风险进行预测具有重要意义。这对充实社保基金风险管理理论,为相关管理机构提供更加合理的偿付能力风险管理方法,保护全体参保人的权利,降低国家的财政压力有一定的帮助。     

Does organization capital matter? An analysis of the performance implications of CEO power

Chief executive officer (CEO) power reflects the ability of the CEO to influence the firm's decision-making. Whether the CEO of the firm could manage the firm’s investment assets to support maximizing the efficiency of resource allocation is an important issue. As previous studies found, organization capital is a key intangible asset that improves the firm’s production efficiency and affects long-term performance. This study explores how CEO power affects organization capital investments and how it further affects the efficiency of firm resource allocation. We use the following three variables to measure CEO power: CEO founder, CEO-only insider and CEO duality. Our results indicate that the level of CEO power can influence a firm’s value by controlling the organization capital. When the firm’s CEO is also the founder, the CEO will attempt to increase investments in organization capital to create growth opportunities for the firm, which will therefore increase the firm's value. Specifically, when the company is in financial distress, the powerful CEO's increasing in organizational capital investment will expose the company to greater risk of loss of intangible assets. This result may further increase the company's price volatility.     

The effects of uncertainty on investment and the expected long-run capital stock

This paper examines the effects of output price uncertainty on the optimal investment behavior of a risk-neutral competitive firm with a constant returns to scale production function. In the presence of convex costs of adjustment, investment is an increasing function of q, the shadow price of capital. Given the current price of output, we find that increased uncertainty will raise the current rate of investment. Increased uncertainty will also increase the expected long-run capital stock if the price of output is serially uncorrelated. However, if the price of output is serially correlated, then the direction of the effect of increased uncertainty on the expected long-run capital stock depends on the curvature of the marginal adjustment cost function. In this case, we obtain results which are directly opposite of the results in the literature and we locate the flaw in the existing analysis.     

When collaborative HR practices may not work well: the moderating role of social capital in the Chinese life insurance industry

In this study, we examine the main and interaction effects of insurance agent-focused collaborative HR practices and insurance agents' social capital on their sales performance. Data from 984 participants were collected in five subsidiaries of a large Chinese life insurance company. The results show a strong relationship between social capital and objective sales performance. More importantly, we found a negative interaction effect of collaborative HR practices and network size on individual performance and a positive interaction effect of collaborative HR practices and network range on objective sales performance. The study is unique in that it looks at the interaction between HR and social capital, investigates how HR practices affect individual performance and not firm performance as has been more commonly done, and focuses on one industry to be able to capture the unique aspects of HR practices in that industry. Theoretical contributions, managerial implications, and limitations are also discussed.     

Capital utilization and capital accumulation: Theory and evidence

A firm may acquire additional capital input by purchasing new capital or by increasing the utilization of its current capital. The margin between capital accumulation and capital utilization is studied in a model of dynamic factor demand where the firm chooses capital, labour and their rates of utilization. A direct measure of capital utilization-the work week of capital-is incorporated into the theory and estimates. The estimates imply that capital stock is costly to adjust while the work week of capital is essentially costless to adjust. The estimated response of the capital stock to changes in its price and in the required rate of return is more rapid than found in other estimates.     

Consumer Search Ability,Price Dispersion and the Digital Divide

The ‘digital divide’ in online activities is believed to arise from differences in Internet access, but this paper advances an alternative explanation that is related to consumer search ability. It argues that this leads to greater price dispersion, causing some consumers to be discriminated against. It analyses price data for the UK Internet motor insurance market, collecting data on 32,255 prices for 110 sub‐markets, where differences in price dispersion across these by age, occupation and sex of the driver are argued to reflect differences in search ability. Allowing for price dispersion to also depend on the insurance risk, it finds greater price dispersion for consumers with weaker search abilities, i.e. older, unemployed, retired or female consumers. As this is not explained by alternative hypotheses, the paper concludes that improved Internet access alone will not close the ‘digital divide’. The implication is that policymakers should address the online search abilities of individuals as well as Internet access.     

The impact of institutional stockholders and managerial interests on the capital structure of firms

When the self-interests of management and stockholders conflict, this is likely to manifest itself in different attitudes towards risk. Managers are hypothesized to desire low levels of debt in the firm's capital structure, while outside stockholders, who hold diversified portfolios, will tolerate higher debt ratios. Empirical results provide evidence in support of the hypotheses. The presence of institutional investors constrains management's discretion in setting capital structure and a positive relationship is identified between their fractional and dollar-value ownership of a firm and debt-assets ratios. Institutional investors will act in a manner that is consistent with the goals of other outside stockholders.     

Rate of return regulation and the Le Chatelier principle

This paper examines whether rate-of return regulation alters the input quantities firms use to produce their selected output level when the corresponding input prices change, in a manner similar to the Le Chatelier principle. More specifically, would the change in a rate regulated firm’s input quantity due to a change in its input price be less price elastic than the unregulated firm’s change in the input quantity due to a change in its input price. We follow Färe and Logan (1986), Nelson and Wohar (1983) in estimating a rate regulated cost function and capital input share system of equations. Using a 1992–2000 panel of 34 US major investor-owned electric utilities, empirical results indicate that the regulated own-input price elasticities of demand for labor and fuel are less price elastic than their corresponding unregulated own-input price elasticities of demand (a Le Chatelier principle type effect). Having a fuel clause (1) reduces the firm’s willingness to substitute from fuel to either non-fuel (capital, labor) input when the price of fuel rises, and (2) enhances the firm’s willingness to substitute from non-fuel inputs to fuel when the price of non-fuel inputs rises.     

Shareholder Heterogeneity and Conflicting Goals: Strategic Investments in the Japanese Electronics Industry

This article investigates the effects of the changing institutional environment on strategic orientations of Japanese electronics firms during the 1990s. We examine the effects of three different types of shareholders on strategic directions of their invested firms. The first one, foreign portfolio investors, characterizes the emerging influence that pressed for change in corporate strategies. The two domestic shareholders, corporate investors and financial institutions, represent the conventional forces for continuity. Between the two domestic forces, though, while corporate investors attempted to maintain status quo, financial institutions have shifted towards market‐oriented behaviour of investment. Specifically, we explore: (1) the influence of each type of shareholder on a firm's diversification strategy and capital commitment; and (2) the moderating effects of firm performance on the relationships between ownership structure and strategic choices. The results suggest that foreign investors prefer the focused product portfolio and conservative capital commitment. They also prefer the reduction of capital investment when the financial performance of their invested firms is poor. Domestic financial institutions are now similarly sensitive to the performance of their invested firms when those firms make strategic investments. By contrast, domestic corporate shareholders remain indifferent to performance, while they aim to maintain relational business ties with invested firms.     

Scarcity, regulation and endogenous technical progress

This paper studies to which extent a firm using a scarce resource input and facing environmental regulation can still manage to have a sustainable growth of output and profits. The firm has a vintage capital technology with two complementary factors, capital and a resource input subject to quota, the latter being increasingly scarce through an exogenously rising price. The firm can scrap obsolete capital and invest in adoptive and/or innovative R&D resource-saving activities. Within this realistic framework, we first characterize long-term growth regimes driven by scarcity (induced-innovation) vs. long-term growth regimes driven by quota regulation (Porter-like innovation). More importantly, we study the interaction between scarcity and quota regulation. In particular, we show that there exists a threshold level for the growth rate of the resource price above which the Porter mechanism is killed while the scarcity-induced growth regime may emerge. Symmetrically, we also find that there must exist a threshold value for the environmental quota under which the growth regime induced by scarcity vanishes while the Porter-like growth regime may survive.     

The restricted convex risk measures in actuarial solvency

In this article, we propose a class of convex risk measures defined on appropriate wedges of a space of financial positions which denote the cumulative surplus variables created by undertaking risks by either an insurance or a reinsurance company. The form of the wedge which is the domain of such a risk measure expresses the form of the company, and it is a subspace in the case of reinsurance companies and a cone in the case of the insurance companies. The value of such a risk measure on an insurance position denotes the capital that the corresponding company has to receive or to keep in advance so that it will not be exposed to risk due to this position. We prove some dual representation and continuity results being similar to the unrestricted case. Finally, we contribute to a decision theory related to the choice of a numeraire asset when the space in which the positions lie in is reflexive.     

The European Union's Proposed Equality and Data Protection Rules: An Existential Problem for Insurers?

Insurance companies use personal data to price personal insurance risks. Innovative data‐collection and processing strategies, including big data, offer the potential for better analysis of traditional risks and for markets in new types of insurance. This paper examines the potential for EU data protection and anti‐discrimination legislation – both existing and proposed – to threaten not only this potential but also the traditional personal insurance business. It offers a strategy based upon codes of practice and technological innovation that would allow insurers to protect their business and to innovate while meeting the concerns of legislators about discrimination and data protection.     

A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO BANK PRUDENTIAL MANAGEMENT AND SUPERVISION: THE UTILIZATION OF FEEDFORWARD CONTROL

This paper explores the operational characteristics of a new systems approach for monitoring the prudential strength, or safety, of modern commercial banks. It exploits the principle of feedforward control through the simulated contingency analysis of a bank's planned financial and associated management positions. This approach will be shown to have operational potential for both individual bank managements and the supervisory authorities who monitor the prudential soundness of all banks. Most of the research to date in this field has been concerned with assessing the adequacy of a bank's capital funds, its capital adequacy position. The primary function of bank capital is to act as a kind of internal insurance fund in order to protect a bank against uncertainties.     

Entry,financing, and bankruptcy decisions: The limited liability effect

A firm, which has a privileged right to undertake an irreversible investment project, simultaneously determines whether to exercise this project and also how many bonds to issue in the presence of demand uncertainty. The firm will not exercise the project until its net value from investing immediately equals its option value from delaying investment. The firm’s choice of debt levels balances the tax advantage of debt against a cost associated with the event of bankruptcy. The effects of uncertainty, asset specificity, and the costs to purchase capital later on a firm’s entry, financing, and bankruptcy decisions are examined and compared with those in the literature.     

A mutual insurance diffusion stochastic control problem

This paper determines the optimal loading factor policy of a mutual insurance firm. Insurance is viewed as a collective process of N persons paying fixed (or variable, contingent) premiums and seeking protection against claims. Risk reduction for each person is then exercised through a distribution of risk by aggregating individual risks and by accumulating cash (net of operating expenses) to meet possible contingent claims. By assuming an approximate claims diffusion process, stochastic control problems for selecting the optimum loading factor policies are stated and resolved analytically. In particular, the implicit cost of bankruptcy is computed and an optimum variable-feedback loading policy is established.     

Peak load pricing with spatial diffusion

The demand for public utility service varies not only temporally but spatially as well. The analysis of the problem of meeting these variations in system load with optimum plant capacity within the framework of a price determination structure is the objective of this paper. No simple cost-based solution proves possible. The solution presented, under a social welfare-maximization criterion, is similar to the joint product pricing discussed by Marshall. The characteristics of peak load pricing developed apply to the profit-maximizing firm as well as to the welfare-maximizing firm. With a profit-maximization objective, price will exceed rather than equal marginal cost. When regulation is imposed, whatever its form, normally there will be a price reduction as the output of the firm is moved closer to the welfare-maximizing level.     

The dynamic annihilation of a rational competitive fringe by a low-cost dominant firm

A low-cost dominant firm will drive all competitive fringe firms out of the market if all firms have rational expectations; however, the dominant firm will not predate (price below marginal cost). Since a dominant firm will not drive out fringe firms if they have myopic expectations, it may be in the dominant firm's best interests to inform the fringe. The effects of governmental intervention on the optimal path and welfare are presented.     

实时财务报告技术采纳与资本成本——基于“创新接受”视角的理论模

在资本市场中,公司与其对手为获得更低的资本成本展开竞争。为了达成目标,公司都尝试采用新的信息技术来提高信息披露的透明度。扩展组织"创新接受"理论的内容并整合影响实时财务报告技术采纳和资本成本的主要因素,利用数学模型建构两者之间的约束关系,结果发现,资本成本的节省、不确定性、风险规避、交易、转换成本以及公司治理政策等都对公司何时以及是否采纳实时财务报告技术产生影响。     

Client-firm market reaction to regulatory action against a major accounting firm

This study assesses the audit client firm share price reactions to a disclosure that the California State Board of Accountancy considered revoking Ernst & Young's (E&Y) license to practice in California due to alleged gross negligence in the Lincoln Savings and Loan fraud scandal. The insurance hypothesis and/or the audit quality explanation justify the expectation of significant client-firm share price reactions. We find limited empirical support that the disclosure of the revocation event is associated with negative market responses for E&Y’s clients. Results also indicate that auditor-supplied insurance and audit quality are more important for client firms experiencing financial distress, higher growth rates, and higher return variability.     

Production and hedging under correlated price and background risks

Decisions in Economics and Finance - This paper examines the competitive firm that has to make its production and hedging decisions under correlated price and background risks. The background risk...