货币政策透明度的结构与体系的非完整性

本文通过分析货币政策透明度基本结构的合理性,以及三类透明度所发挥的不同作用,提出透明度建设不仅仅是透明程度的提高,更要注重透明度体系的完善.并且,针对我国目前不存在目标透明度,也不能建立目标透明度的事实,建议注重知识透明度的建设及其作用的发挥,使市场主体可以深入学习和理解央行的经济模型和货币政策决策规则,从而发挥货币政策透明度应有的作用.     

Transparency of Monetary Policy: Theory and Practice

Transparency has become one of the main features of monetarypolicymaking during the last decade. This article establishesstylized facts and provides a systematic overview of the practiceof monetary policy transparency around the world. It shows muchdiversity in information disclosure, even for central bankswith the same monetary policy framework, including inflationtargeting. Nevertheless, the study finds significant differencesin transparency across monetary policy frameworks. The empiricalfindings are explained using key insights distilled from thetheoretical literature. Thus, this article aims to bridge thegap between the theory and practice of monetary policy transparency.(JEL codes: E58, D82)     

Monetary Policy Delegation and Transparency of Policy Targets: A Positive Analysis

Abstract. We show that, in a two‐stage model of monetary policy with stochastic policy targets and asymmetric information, the transparency regime chosen by the central bank does never coincide with the regime preferred by society. Independent of society's endogenous choice of delegation, the central bank reveals its inflation target and conceals its output target. In contrast, society would prefer either transparency or opacity of both targets. As a conclusion, the choice of the transparency regime should be part of the optimal delegation solution.     

Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy With Unobservable Goals

We define and study transparency, credibility, and reputation in a model where the central bank's characteristics are unobservable to the private sector and inferred from the policy outcome. Increased transparency makes the bank's reputation and credibility more sensitive to its actions. This moderates the bank's policy and induces the bank to follow a policy closer to the socially optimal one. Full transparency of the central bank's intentions is generally socially beneficial but frequently worse for the bank. Somewhat paradoxically, direct observability of idiosyncratic central bank goals removes the moderating influence on the bank and leads to the worst equilibrium.     

货币政策的时间不一致性、可信性与透明度

货币政策的时间不一致性导致了政策的可信性问题,这已为实践所证明。本文提出,货币政策透明度以其声誉效应为基础,对时问不一致性形成双重约束：正向约束与逆向约束,正向约束,是限制中央银行的通货膨胀倾向;而逆向约束,是克服中央银行在反时间不一致性中的过度保守倾向。     

政府透明度的经济学视角

本文从经济学的角度,对政府透明度与民营机构透明度进行类比,论述了政府透明度的涵义以及对政府有效制约的原理、意义,尝试探讨妨碍政府提高透明度的根本原因,并提出了政府和官员主导、民众利用媒体舆论推动来提高政府透明度的思路.     

货币政策透明度:理论研究与实践进展

近期国外关于货币政策透明度的研究表明,政策透明度的提高将有利于正确引导公众预期,从而保证货币政策的操作效果。如在西方国家近年来的政策实践中,一些国家通过设定利率走廊或利用公告操作来增加政策透明度,不但可以降低货币政策的操作成本,同时有助于中央银行顺利实现既定的政策目标。正基于此,我国有必要进一步增加政策透明度,从而建立一个操作更为简单透明、效率更高的政策调控框架。     

货币政策透明度指数:理论方法与实证检验

文章通过建立货币政策透明度指数,并利用我国金融市场的利率数据进行检验,认为我国中央银行在基准利率调整和准备金率改变等重大政策决策上,货币当局更倾向于采用模糊的政策操作方式,由此可能会导致市场预期的混乱,并最终对政策实施效果产生负面影响。因此,我国有必要借鉴西方国家的政策操作经验,进一步有选择地增加货币政策操作的透明度,并借以最终建立一个简单透明、效率更高的政策调控框架。     

货币政策透明度理论的兴起与实践

本文首先介绍了货币政策透明度兴起的历史背景,然后阐述了货币政策透明度兴起的理论基础:理性预期、信息不对称和货币政策动态不一致性.在此基础上,对主要发达国家货币政策透明度的实践进行了对比分析,从而对我国货币政策透明度问题提供借鉴.     

Trade Policy Transparency and Investor Confidence: Some Implications for an Effective Trade Policy Review Mechanism

This paper is concerned with the value of the WTO's Trade Policy Review Mechanism, particularly its transparency role and its potential role in policy stability, for investor confidence in developing countries. The implications of reduced risk and uncertainty regarding trade policy for investor confidence, and ultimately for the capital stock and the long-run structure of production, are examined in an analytical model. Certainty equivalence is employed to assess the general equilibrium effects of risk and uncertainty. Their reduction can boost risk-adjusted returns, leading to an increase in long-run levels of capital.     

货币政策有效性与货币政策透明制度的兴起

本文着重探讨货币政策透明性与货币政策有效性之间的关系,目的在于说明货币政策透明制度能够兴起的一个关键因素在于货币政策的透明性有利于提高货币政策的有效性。在标准的“时间不一致性”理论里面,货币政策是否透明对货币政策的效应是没有影响的,因为在这类理论里面,经济主体能够使用所有可获得的信息形成与经济系统相一致的、无偏的估计。但问题的关键在于,这种假设的基本前提在实践中并不完全成立。当考虑到经济主体对经济运行结果和经济运行过程的不完全认知时,货币政策透明性对于促进经济主体的学习过程,稳定和引导公众的通胀预期,进而提高货币政策的有效性就起着至关重要的作用。     

我国货币政策透明度的实践及问题研究

当今世界各国中央银行都致力于提高货币政策透明度,基于货币政策透明度可以有效地提高货币政策有效性,越来越多的国家将其作为本国货币制度的重要选择。本文通过对我国货币政策透明度实践的深入分析,发现提高货币政策透明度对货币政策具有积极的效用,并针对当前我国货币政策透明度中存在的问题提出相应的政策建议。     

Wage Determination and Economic Policy

This article is a revised version of the Giblln Memorial Lecture presented on 1 September 1977 by Dr. J. E. Isaac, Deputy President of the Conciliation and Arbitration Commission. It is published by permission of the Australian and New Zealand Association for the Advancement of Science and the text of the lecture is to appear in Search , Volume 8, No 11/12.     

Heterodox Economic Thinking and Public Policy

Research on innovation and entrepreneurship policy (IEP) is almost exclusively concerned with the instrumental question of which policy measures are most effective in promoting “productive” entrepreneurial activities. The positive (political economy) and normative (welfare) dimensions are largely neglected. I focus on the latter, asking what could be a plausible normative rationale for innovation policy beyond the simple invocation of “growth” and the related use of orthodox criteria (such as “market failure”). This is a non-trivial issue, given (i) the ambiguous welfare implications of innovation in general, and (ii) the fact that standard notions of welfare cannot be consistently applied in an entrepreneurial, “Schumpeterian” economy. I suggest a dynamic criterion according to which IEP should ensure that individuals are able to engage in effective preference learning over time. This reconstruction of the normative basis of innovation policy helps clarify several contentious issues, among which are the desirability of selfemployment and the role of social security arrangements.     

Economic Policy and the Third Way

The Third Way has been criticised for its lack of a distinctive economic policy. This paper develops a set of policy interventions consistent with both economic efficiency and social solidarity.     

Economic Policy and the Progressive Idea

Abstract

Recent events in different countries suggest that institutional change is discontinuous and may lead to abrupt change. A specific case is shifts in social consensus. The article focuses on the latter. It argues that people make sense of their lives in relation to how they situate themselves within society. Their identities depend on the degree to which they are capable consciously to conduct their lives. Undesired economic change may disrupt previous identities and cause cognitive dissonance. At the collective level, it may trigger in-group versus out-group dynamics that provide a fictitious identity and either reinforce the status quo or suddenly subvert it.

Neoliberalism caused such undesired changes. A progressive alternative cannot rely just on convincing people that a change in conventional economic measures is desirable. It requires a recovery of people’s active and conscious self-identification. This involves overcoming their forced adaptation to the status quo through participation and collective action