Case-based learning with different similarity functions

The paper applies the rule for adaptation of the aspiration level suggested by Gilboa and Schmeidler to a situation in which the similarity between acts is represented by an arbitrary similarity function [Gilboa, I., Schmeidler, D., 1996. Case-based optimization. Games Econ. Behav. 15, 1–26]. I show that the optimality result derived by Gilboa and Schmeidler in general fails. With a concave similarity function, only corner acts are chosen in the limit. The optimality result can be reestablished by introducing convex regions into the similarity function and modifying the aspiration adaptation rule. A similarity function which is “sufficiently convex” allows approximating optimal behavior with an arbitrary degree of precision.     

Detecting Failures of Backward Induction: Monitoring Information Search in Sequential Bargaining

We did experiments in a three-round bargaining game where the (perfect) equilibrium offer was $1.25 and an equal split was $2.50. The average offer was $2.11. Patterns of information search (measured with a computerized information display) show limited lookahead rather than backward induction. Equilibrium theories which adjust for social utilities (reflecting inequality-aversion or reciprocity) cannot explain the results because they predict subjects will make equilibrium offers to “robot” players, but offers to robots are only a little lower. When trained subjects (who quickly learned to do backward induction) bargained with untrained subjects, offers ended up halfway between equilibrium and $2.11. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C7, C9.     

Big data and complexity: Is macroeconomics heading toward a new paradigm?

The paper discusses the extent to which the availability of unprecedentedly rich data-sets and the need for new approaches – both epistemological and computational – is an emerging issue for Macroeconomics. By adopting an evolutionary approach, we describe the paradigm shifts experienced in the macroeconomic research field and emphasize that the types of data the macroeconomist has to deal with play an important role in the evolutionary process of the development of the discipline. After introducing the current debate over Big Data in social sciences, the paper presents a detailed discussion of possible and existing interactions between Big Data and Computational Behavioral Macroeconomics. We argue that Big Data applied to economic questions can lead to new styles of thinking and research methods, namely to the development of a new research paradigm.     

Satisficing and optimality in 2×2 common interest games

Summary. The paper studies the evolution of cooperation when satisficing players repeatedly play a symmetric two-by-two game of common interest. We show that if initial aspiration levels are sufficiently close to the efficient payoff and aspiration adjusts at a sufficiently slow speed then the unique long run state will be the efficient outcome. In the special case of coordination games, the more tension there is between payoff dominance and risk dominance, the longer it takes for the system to lock into the payoff dominant outcome. Received: June 23, 1997; revised version: November 19, 1997     

实证经济学与规范经济学: 科学标准的辨析

经济学研究中的实证方法和规范方法的运用历来都存在争议.文章在对实证经济学和规范经济学区分的缘起、内容和产生后果的分析基础上,对经济学的"科学性"标准进行了较详细的分析,对经济学研究中忽视甚至无视价值判断等一系列规范性问题带来的严重后果进行了阐述.文章认为,经济学作为社会科学,规范方法的运用是不可避免的,这是由经济学本身的学科属性决定的.实证主义经济学和规范主义经济学之间并没有不可逾越的鸿沟.     

A transitions model for sustainable mobility

This paper reports on the development of a model for assessing transitions to sustainable mobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which a transition to a sustainable mobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent. There are a small number of complex agents, which have an internal structure and are therefore subsystems within society, and a larger number of simple agents. Based on the UK data, the results show that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) come to dominate, but only in the very long run (after 2030), while biofuels and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)-electric hybrids are the main alternatives to the regime in the next 10–30 years, because a) they are already developed and b) they fit better into current infrastructures. The model shows that technological transitions are most likely. Lifestyle change transitions require sustained pressure from the environment on society and behavioural change from consumers.     

Asset price bubbles and crashes with near-zero-intelligence traders

Summary. We examine whether a simple agent-based model can generate asset price bubbles and crashes of the type observed in a series of laboratory asset market experiments beginning with the work of Smith, Suchanek and Williams (1988). We follow the methodology of Gode and Sunder (1993, 1997) and examine the outcomes that obtain when populations of zero-intelligence (ZI) budget constrained, artificial agents are placed in the various laboratory market environments that have given rise to price bubbles. We have to put more structure on the behavior of the ZI-agents in order to address features of the laboratory asset bubble environment. We show that our model of near-zero-intelligence traders, operating in the same double auction environments used in several different laboratory studies, generates asset price bubbles and crashes comparable to those observed in laboratory experiments and can also match other, more subtle features of the experimental data.Received: 15 July 2003, Revised: 28 September 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D83, D84, G12. Correspondence to: John DuffyWe would like to thank an Anonymous referee, Guillaume Frechette, David Laibson, Al Roth and participants in Harvard Experimental and Behavioral Economics Workshop for their comments, and Charles Noussair for providing his data set.     

Models in evolutionary economics and environmental policy: Towards an evolutionary environmental economics

In this paper we review evolutionary economic modelling in relation to environmental policy. We discuss three areas in which evolutionary economic models have a particularly high added value for environmental policy-making: the double externality problem, technological transitions and consumer demand. We explore the possibilities to apply evolutionary economic models in environmental policy assessment, including the opportunities for making policy-making endogenous to environmental innovation. We end with a critical discussion of the challenges that remain.     

The market for preferences

Learning processes are widely held to be the mechanism by whichboundedly rational agents adapt to environmental changes. Weargue that this same outcome might also be achieved by a differentmechanism, namely specialisation and the division of knowledge,which we here extend to the consumer side of the economy. Wedistinguish between high-level preferences and low-level preferencesas nested systems of rules used to solve particular choice problems.We argue that agents, while sovereign in high-level preferences,may often find it expedient to acquire, in a pseudo-market,the low-level preferences in order to make good choices whenpurchasing complex commodities about which they have littleor no experience. A market for preferences arises when environmentalcomplexity overwhelms learning possibilities and leads agentsto make use of other people's specialised knowledge and decisionrules.     

Method in Experiment: Rhetoric and Reality

The methodological ideal of experimentalists, E, is easily stated: derive a testable hypothesis, H, from a well-specified theory, T; implement experiments with a design; implicitly in the latter are auxiliary hypotheses, A, that surface in the review/discussion of completed research reports (payoffs are 'adequate,' Ss are 'relevant,' instructions, context are 'clear,' etc.). We want to be able to conclude, if statistical test outcomes support not-H, that T is 'falsified.' But this is not what we do; rather we ask if there is a flaw in the test, i.e. not-A is supported, and we do more experiments. This is good practice—much better than the statistical rhetoric of falsificationism. Undesigned social processes allow E to accumulate technical and instrumental knowledge that drive the reduction of experimental error and constitute a more coherent methodology than falsificationism.     

西方经济学与马克思主义经济学关于生产理论的比较——一个方法论的视角

西方经济学与马克思主义经济学的生产理论研究方法上存在三个方面本质区别:西方经济学的生产理论是以"经济人"假设为出发点,把劳动者仅仅作为生产要素研究;而马克思主义经济学的生产理论是以"历史的、现实的人"为出发点,把劳动者既看作生产要素,又作为生产主体来研究.西方经济学的生产理论只研究生产一般,因而使用价值(即效用)范畴是其研究的核心;而马克思主义经济学则不仅研究生产一般,更注重研究生产的具体社会形式,因而把价值范畴作为研究的核心.西方经济学用个体主义方法,把生产理论仅仅置于微观领域来研究,致使其理论体系在微观与宏观上形成脱节;而马克思主义经济学则运用唯物辩证法,在宏观和微观的有机联系中研究资本主义的生产和再生产问题.     

Learning competitive equilibrium in laboratory exchange economies

A laboratory market for two goods is instituted to examine the hypothesis that individuals will eventually coordinate on the induced competitive equilibrium. The mechanism for exchange strongly restricts the space of agent actions, facilitating the identification of decision rules. Evidence for learning competitive equilibrium is mixed due to strong heterogeneity in decision making. Some subjects forego immediately available gains when they expect the market to move in a more favorable direction, a condition necessary for coordinating on the competitive outcome. However, a majority do not, and many are content to satisfice, though the means to do better was reasonably transparent. I gratefully acknowledge the advice and tutelage of John Duffy and Stephen Spear, and would also like to thank David Grether, Dan Houser, Michael Peress, Bryan Routledge, Shyam Sunder, and participants at the Midwest Theory meetings (Bloomington) and the ESA regional meetings (Tucson) for useful feedback. Two patient and insightful anonymous referees have helped to greatly improve this paper and my future written endeavors. This project was financially supported by the Department of Economics at Carnegie Mellon University, the International Foundation for Research in Experimental Economics at George Mason University, and the Social and Information Sciences Laboratory at Caltech, as well as by Stephen Spear. Finally, special thanks is owed to Allen Geary, Jr. for co-developing the software used in these experiments, and to the Pittsburgh Experimental Economics Laboratory for use of its facilities.     

William James's psychological pragmatism: habit, belief and purposive human behaviour

Modern institutional economists look to pragmatism for: (1)an evolutionary philosophy of knowledge; and (2) a foundationof a theory of human nature. These two elements are combinedin William James, who was both a philosopher of pragmatism anda pioneering experimental psychologist. The author shows firsthow William James added psychological depth to the pragmatictradition as it was left by C. S. Peirce, and offers a reconciliationof their respective theories of truth. The second part of theessay explores James's views on psychology, concentrating onthe relation to pragmatic philosophy and the question of habit.The last section compares this to human nature as seen in modernevolutionary biology, in brain science and in the philosophyof rationality in the social sciences.     

The Sensory Order and other Adaptive Classifying Systems

Synopsis Hayek’s cognitive theory, which seeks to describe the operation of a particular order, in fact provides a paradigmatic account of knowledge-generating orders in general. We claim that this paradigm provides a fertile conceptual framework for exploring a variety of problems in economics and social theory. In particular, we shall show that Hayek’s conception of the ‘map’ and the ‘model’, which he uses to explain the operation of the complex adaptive classifying system called ‘mind’, are promising analytical devices with applications extending to social structures of various kinds and complexity. We use Hayek’s notion of the map and model to analyze how different social structures – regarded as classifying systems – work in terms of their input, processing, and output capabilities. The adaptive characteristics of such systems, via communicative routines, multi-level classification, and feedback, form central motifs for our discussion of markets, science, and other social structures. We show that by analyzing the knowledge-generating characteristics of such structures we are also able to gain insights about the circumstances affecting their adaptive properties.     

Bidding ‘as if’ risk neutral in experimental first price auctions without information feedback

Experimental research on first price sealed bid auctions has usually involved repeated settings with information feedback on winning bids and payoffs after each auction round. Relative to the risk neutral Nash equilibrium, significantly higher bidding has been reported. The present paper reports the results of experimental first price auctions with n=7 where feedback on payoffs and winning bids is withheld. Under these conditions, average bidding is below the risk neutral Nash equilibrium prediction but converges to it with repetition.

---

Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.      

Schumpeterian endogenous growth theory and evolutionary economics

In this paper, we aim to discuss whether Schumpeterian models of endogenous growth can accommodate Schumpeters vision of development through creative destruction. Taking a methodological approach, our focus is on individual decision-making, technology, general equilibrium and welfare, and steady state dynamics as the fundamental principles underlying endogenous growth theory. In particular, the Aghion-Howitt model of Schumpeterian growth in various extended versions is analyzed in the light of Schumpeters work. Therefore, we also try to root Schumpeters work in historical context. We find endogenous growth theory far from carrying Schumpeters idea of an evolutionary approach to change and development. Rather the emergence of numerous models of an evolutionary type can be observed to provide for the formal structure appropriate to keeping Schumpeters legacy alive.JEL Classification: B1, B2, B4, O3, O4Corespondence to: Thomas Kuhn     

What topic modeling could reveal about the evolution of economics*

ABSTRACT

The paper presents the topic modeling technique known as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), a form of text-mining aiming at discovering the hidden (latent) thematic structure in large archives of documents. By applying LDA to the full text of the economics articles stored in the JSTOR database, we show how to construct a map of the discipline over time, and illustrate the potentialities of the technique for the study of the shifting structure of economics in a time of (possible) fragmentation.     

The worth of a songbird: ecological economics as a post-normal science

One of the very valuable features of Ecological Economics is its provision for publications under the rubric ‘Commentary’. In that way, essays which are not research in the strictest sense can still find proper refereed publication, and can be submitted to the further test of open colleague criticism. This paper is intended to be read in that spirit; and where criticisms are made of the work of particular scholars, that is done because of the significance of their contribution.