日本政府投资、民间投资和产业资本收益之间关系的实证分析

本文基于日本的统计数据,利用VAR模型和格兰杰因果关系检验方法,研究政府部门投资、民间部门投资和全产业总资本收益率之间的相互作用。VAR模型分析表明,政府投资对民间投资的影响比较大,两者对全产业总资本收益率的影响都很大且政府投资的影响远远大于民间投资,这些影响关系都较复杂。格兰杰因果关系检验表明,政府投资变化是民间投资变化的格兰杰原因,两者分别是全产业总资本收益率变化的格兰杰原因,而这些变量之间不存在相反方向的格兰杰因果关系。     

Can integrated infrastructure investment plans contribute to more effective public spending? The case of Mozambique

All countries, especially developing countries with limited financial resources, face difficult decisions in prioritising public funds for investment projects in the face of multiple demands in order to achieve strategic public goals. Effective investment often requires coordination between different institutions and the management of political pressure to divert investment in support of private interests. It also requires the identification of appropriate sources of funds for different purposes. The preparation of an integrated infrastructure investment plan (IIIP) that uses structured approaches to review investment proposals has been suggested, and adopted in some cases, as an instrument to address these challenges and bridge the gap between national planning and sectoral budgeting. This article considers the experience of Mozambique in deploying an IIIP as well as some recent events and concludes that the instrument may be helpful as part of a system of investment planning and allocation but that it has significant limitations.     

Patents,foreign direct investment and economic growth in Australia, 1860–2010

We examine the long run relationship between innovation and economic development in Australia, using 150 years of data on patenting activity, and aggregate and sectoral economic indicators. Our initial results point to several important causal relationships, particularly the effects of patents on real GDP and of private capital formation on patents. We delve deeper at the sector level and find important causal relationships of patents with real foreign direct investment (FDI) since World War II. Australia's dependence on FDI for private capital formation served as an important stimulus for knowledge creation in key sectors including manufacturing, agriculture and mining.     

FDI对中国国内投资效应的行业间研究

本文在分析FDI对国内投资挤入挤出效应机制基础上,采用2003～2008年中国各行业FDI和国内投资数据,具体分析FDI对不同产业内部的挤入、挤出效应。研究结果表明:呈现挤入效应的行业数量在增多,而呈现挤出的行业数量相对减少;产业的关联效应以及产业结构的相似性都是影响FDI对中国国内投资挤入挤出效应的重要因素。     

China's outward foreign direct investment in the Belt and Road Initiative: What are the motives for Chinese firms to invest?

Because of the potentially large and important effects of the extremely ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched by China in late 2013, considerable attention has been given to the motives for, and repercussions of, the BRI-driven infrastructural projects. Yet, the non-infrastructural outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from China to BRI countries, which varies quite substantially across different sectors and different countries, has not yet received much attention. In contrast to some recent studies showing that the massive initiative has increased China's total FDI outflows to fellow BRI countries, in this paper, based on our sector-level difference-in-differences models, we find that effect to be statistically insignificant. Yet, at the same time, we provide empirical evidence on the sectoral pattern of China's outward FDI before and after 2014 indicating that China's FDI outflows to BRI countries have significantly increased in sectors characterized by overcapacity and contributing to pollution in China, thereby demonstrating that China's BRI-driven outward FDI has been very selective in terms of sectors. We confirm these findings with a variety of robustness checks and show that it is BRI countries with relatively low institutional quality that have been more likely to receive these types of FDI from China. We thus speculate that Chinese firms have been motivated to place FDI investments in BRI countries for the sake of alleviating China's own overcapacity and pollution problems. Our findings lead us to suggest that, although these sectoral patterns are consistent with the different stages of economic development in which China and its fellow BRI-identified countries find themselves, Chinese investors and host country governments should be more concerned with the potential for unwanted side-effects of the FDI investments so that the mutually beneficial effects of the BRI can be sustained into the indefinite future among all countries involved.     

Servicification of investment and structural transformation: The case of China

Structural transformation is a key feature of economic development. Traditional literature attributes it to changes in the sectoral composition of consumption. Different from it, we argue that “servicification” of investment goods, induced by investment-composition technological change, becomes an increasingly important reason for structural transformation, particularly for the rise of the services economy. Our study of the input output tables finds that the share of service inputs in investment goods has grown significantly in many countries since the 1980s, especially for investment-intensive economies such as China. To assess if the investment channel is quantitatively significant, we build a standard model with three broad sectors, but instead add an investment production function employing factors from all three sectors. Moreover, we incorporate investment-composition technological change by allowing the productivities of the three sectoral inputs to evolve over time. We calibrate the model to the Chinese economy from 1981 to 2014 and perform counter-factual experiments accordingly. We find that investment-composition technological change accounts for 33.1% decline in employment share of agriculture, 36.0% increase in employment share of manufacturing and 31.5% increase in employment share of services over the period. The magnitude of this effect on the share of services keeps growing, particularly after 2000. Our findings are not unique for China, but also apply to other economies experiencing the “servicification” of investment.     

A simple accounting framework for the effect of resource misallocation on aggregate productivity

This paper develops a simple accounting framework that measures the effect of resource misallocation on aggregate productivity. This framework is based on a multi-sector equilibrium model with sector-specific frictions in the form of taxes on sectoral factor inputs. Our framework is flexible for the assumption on preferences or aggregate production functions. Moreover, this framework is consistent with that commonly used in productivity analysis. I apply this framework to measure the extent to which resource misallocation explains the difference in aggregate productivity across developed countries. I find that around 9 percentage points of the difference in the measured aggregate productivity between Japan and the US can be accounted for by resource misallocation. Using the framework, I also decompose the causes of the misallocation effect.     

ARE PRIVATE TRANSFERS CROWDED OUT BY PUBLIC TRANSFERS? THE CASE OF NEPAL

Using household data from Nepal for 1995/96, this paper investigates the motives underlying private transfers and examines whether or not public transfers crowded out private transfers and the resultant effects on income inequality. The estimation results of Probit and Tobit models show that the private transfers received were altruistically motivated while public transfers exerted no crowding‐out effect. Although the probability of receiving private transfers decreases with household size, having more children or more elderly members of the family increases the probability as well as the amount of transfers. By contrast, the age of the household head does not appear to be a significant factor. Furthermore, the study shows that public transfers did not contribute to a lowering of income inequalities among households. These findings suggest that the Government of Nepal should design its public transfer schemes in order to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of its social safety net programs.     

长三角各产业投资的宏观经济效应分析

本文使用SVAR模型,分上海、浙江和江苏三个行政区域对各产业投资对长三角的宏观经济效应进行了比较分析,研究表明:①上海的一、二、三产业投资均提高长三角产出和居民消费,对长三角就业增长率有不显著的负影响;②浙江和江苏的第一产业投资在短期中可以提高长三角产出和居民消费,但对长三角的就业影响有限;③浙江和江苏的第二、三产业投资,在大幅提高长三角产出和居民消费的同时,也对长三角就业的增长率有积极影响,并且这种影响均呈现递增趋势,随时间推移,可较好地提高长三角经济整体的就业率。     

The Impact of Multinational Presence on Domestic Investment: Firm‐Level Evidence from South Korea

In order to analyze the effects of foreign multinationals' presence on domestic firms' investment, we use a detailed firm level data set from South Korea for the 2006–2014 period. We combine it with the input‐output tables provided by the Bank of Korea to construct industry level measures of multinational presence in sectors that are horizontally and vertically linked, and estimate dynamic investment equations that are augmented with these foreign presence measures. We find a positive and significant effect of foreign presence in both horizontally and vertically linked industries on domestic firm's investment rate, with larger effects arising from multinational presence in the supplying sectors. Quantitatively, a 2 percentage point increase in the presence of multinational suppliers increases the domestic firm's investment rate by 3.24 percentage points. We also find that this effect is larger for small and medium firms, private firms, nonexporters, firms that are not part of a chaebol, and for firms in external finance dependent industries. A similar 2 percentage point increase in the foreign presence in downstream sectors increases the investment rate of domestic suppliers by 0.55 percentage points. This effect is larger if the domestic firm is part of a chaebol, or is in a less external finance dependent industry. Investment increase by 0.53 percentage points following a 2 percentage point increase in horizontal linkages.     

安徽省私人投资公共支出与经济增长的动态关系研究

文章为了弄清楚私人投资和公共支出对安徽省GDP的动态影响,建立了三变量向量自回归（VAR）模型。由模型结论作者认为安徽省公共支出在短期内对GDP的影响是负向的,长期内是正向的,而且公共支出的边际影响大于私人支出;公共支出对私人投资具有很强的互补性,但公共支出的增长机制却是随着自身的需求和GDP的增长而增长。     

The assessment: public-sector investment

A combination of privatization and public-sector expenditureconstraints has given rise to a substantial reduction in public-sectorinvestment. Private ownership offers incentives for efficiencyin capital investment and forms of equity finance which areparticularly needed in developing countries. To avoid distortionsbetween public and private-sector investment, similar investmentcriteria should be employed in the two sectors. In particular,risk characteristics and premiums should be the same for equivalentprojects. However, in those areas where public ownership ismost relevant, namely natural monopolies, regulation is requiredand the private sector will not in general employ appropriateinvestment criteria. Furthermore, the private-sector cost ofcapital may be in excess of that of the public sector for distributionand interconnectedness reasons. Careful consideration needsto be given to institutional design to ensure that the private-sectorpotential is fully realized and to achieve efficiency in public-sectorinvestment where it is required. The paper points to a formof public ownership which has strikingly similar propertiesto regulated ownership and allows appropriate choices of investmentto be implemented.     

Misallocation in Chinese Manufacturing and Services: A Variable Markup Approach

Cross‐country comparison reveals an unusually small service sector in China. Using firm‐level data from China's 2008 economic census, we find two facts that speak to a novel mechanism of misallocation within service and between manufacturing and service sectors. First, compared with the manufacturing sector, there are more state‐owned enterprises and fewer entrants in the service sector. Second, markups increase with firm size, and the increase is more dramatic among service firms. We interpret these facts through the lens of a monopolistic competition model with heterogeneous firms and variable markups. A multisector model shows a new channel that translates asymmetric barriers to entry across sectors into sectoral markup differences, which in turn cause sectoral misallocation. Quantitative analysis shows that when reducing entry barriers to service firms to the extent observed for manufacturing firms, the model predicts a 12‐percentage‐point increase in the service employment share.     

Infrastructure investment and Spanish economic growth, 1850-1935

This paper analyzes the impact of infrastructure investment on Spanish economic growth between 1850 and 1935. Using new infrastructure data and VAR techniques, this paper shows that the growth impact of local-scope infrastructure investment was positive, but returns to investment in large nation-wide networks were not significantly different from zero. Two complementary explanations are suggested for the last result. On the one hand, public intervention and the application of non-efficiency investment criteria were very intense in large network construction. On the other hand, returns to new investment in large networks might have decreased dramatically once the basic links were constructed.     

International trade and net investment: theory and evidence

The theory of welfare accounting shows that comprehensive measures of net investment can be used to test whether an economy is following unsustainable paths of consumption. However, the notion of net investment used in most applied studies rules out technological progress and terms-of-trade gains from international trade. This paper considers an augmented expression of net investment derived from a dynamic growth model featuring international trade in different types of resource inputs, exogenous productivity growth in final sectors, and cost-reducing progress in resource extraction. Calculating augmented net investment for the world’s top twenty oil producers, we show that the difference with standard non-augmented measures can be large and may even revert some established conclusions regarding sustainability: prospects are more favorable than previously thought in oil-exporting countries endowed with large reserves like Angola, Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. In oil-importing economies, future consumption possibilities are limited by the lack of expected rental incomes from future resource exports.     

Financing of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Flows: The Case of Indonesia 1

This paper tries to assess the effects of implementing foreign investment in Indonesia on the country's imports from home countries. This effect is found to be sizeable as more than 50% of realised foreign investment in Indonesia is implemented m kind. 1.e. by importing plant equipment. Furthemore, sectoral kind-cash financing ratios have been correlated with sectoral loan-equity ratios of realised investment from Japan as the largest country investing in non-oil sectors. This correlation is found to be negative and is explained by the way that investment legislation provides incennves for foreign investors to pay them equity contribution in kind and convey ownership of the plant equipment to local nationals later on.     

Evaluation of investment projects based on a complex of interindustry and interregional models

This paper presents a methodical approach and complex of economic and mathematical models to evaluate the efficiency of large investment projects implemented on the basis of public private partnership mechanisms permitting to forecast public results of projects simultaneously implemented at the macro-, meso-, and microeconomic levels.     

双循环格局下的竞争中性与国企改革——来自国有资本差异化功能的证据

本文在一般均衡框架下构建理论模型,从微观视角考察国有资本功能在国有、民营两部门中的差异,讨论"双循环"战略下如何有效配置国有资本,推动竞争中性框架的建立.研究表明:国有资本在理论上具有正向的经济效率并促进企业积极承担社会责任,但经验证据显示其经济效率偏低,且在国有和民营部门有较大差异.在国有部门中,国有资本的经济效率显...     

Interaction in investment among rival Japanese firms

This paper develops a simple framework for investigating the variation in firms' investment behavior across industrial sectors and over time. We divide the economy into three tiers: major industrial sectors, businesses, and firms, and focus on the impact of business-level interaction on firms investment behavior. After controlling for unobservable firm-specific effects, business-specific effects, and a changing economic environment, we find that the investment and profitability of competitors help explain variations in investment across firms in major Japanese industrial sectors.     

中国工业行业外商投资结构的环境效应分析——基于工业行业面板数据的实证检验

本文选取我国35个工业行业2001～2007年的面板数据,考察了工业行业FDI以及不同污染程度和不同要素密集度的行业FDI对我国环境的影响。研究结果表明,对总体工业行业而言,外商直接投资对我国生态环境产生了负面影响。进一步进行行业结构分组后发现,轻度污染密集型行业的FDI对环境也产生了负面的影响,而重度污染密集型行业的FDI对环境的影响并不显著;技术密集型行业的FDI对我国环境则产生了较大程度的负面影响,劳动密集型行业的FDI对环境影响并不显著。文章最后分析了产生这一结果的原因并提出相应对策。