Commitment or discretion? An empirical investigation of monetary policy preferences in China

This paper offers a first attempt to estimate the policy preferences of China’s central bank by confronting a small-scale microfounded New Keynesian model in which monetary policy is described by commitment or discretion with the Chinese macroeconomic data over the period from 1992Q2 to 2017Q4. Bayesian model comparison reveals that the data favor discretionary monetary policy. Estimates of the loss function weights under both cases show that the leading policy goal is price stability, followed by output stability and then interest rate smoothing. Finally, through counterfactual analyses we assess how macroeconomic outcomes might improve, had the Chinese central bank been able to commit. These findings shed new light on the opaque Chinese monetary policy, and are robust to subsample analysis.     

A grey dynamic model for the evaluation of regional sustainable development and its empirical study

Currently, traditional development issues, such as economic stagnation, as well as new challenges like environmental degradation and globalization, need attention. Sustainable development, including economic, environmental, and social elements, is a main goal of decision-makers. The key to sustainable decision-making is to evaluate and forecast the status quo of sustainable development. Policy makers need a tool based on scientific information to forecast the effects of future actions on sustainability and make policies for sustainable development. This paper analyzes the relation of the economy, environment and social welfare by the grey dynamic model. The proposed method uses time series and basic indicators of ecological system, including economic, environmental and social sub-systems. It is applied to Heilongjiang Province and Jiangsu Province. The results have proved different status quo of sustainable development in these two regions, and suggestions are proposed, such as optimization of industrial structure and eco-industrial development. The conclusion is that there is no unique sustainable path, and accordingly, policy makers should choose different criteria and strategies to make efficient sustainable decisions for each region.     

Tobit or OLS? An empirical evaluation under different diary window lengths

Researchers analysing time-use data often estimate limited dependent variable models because time spent must be nonnegative and cannot be more than the total amount of time in a given observation period. While the traditional empirical technique applied to such cases is maximum likelihood estimation of a Tobit (censored regression) model, recent debate has questioned whether linear models estimated via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) are preferable. On the one hand, Tobit models are deemed necessary to address the significant censoring (i.e. large numbers of zeroes) typically found in time-use data, in the face of which OLS estimators would be biased and inconsistent. Yet, optimization occurs over a longer period than that covered by the typical time diary (often a day), and thus some argue that reported zeroes represent a measurement problem rather than true nonparticipation in the activity, in which case OLS would be preferred. We provide direct empirical evidence on this question using the Australian Time Use Surveys, which record time-use information for two consecutive diary days, by estimating censored and linear versions of a parental child care model for both 24-hour and 48-hour windows of observation in order to determine the empirical consequences of estimation technique and diary length.     

Assessment of urban sustainable development using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

1. Introduction In 1987, World Commission on Environment and Development explained the concept of sustainable development for the first time in the report Our Com- mon Future, which has reached a wide agreement. “Sustainable development seeks to meet the needs and aspirations of the present without compromis- ing the ability to meet those of the future”. In other words, it refers to the harmonious development of economy, society, resources and environment, which are an inseparable system.…     

Farmers’ organizations and sustainable development: An introduction

This special issue features 14 new research papers investigating the role of farmers’ organizations (e.g., collective action, self-help groups, producer companies/organizations, and cooperatives) in supporting sustainable development. The key findings include: (1) farmer groups and cooperatives promote farmers’ adoption of good farm management practices, new agricultural technologies and sustainable farming practices, although not substantially improving farm yield; (2) outsourcing services provided by agricultural cooperatives help to increase the technical efficiency of crop production; (3) cooperative membership enhances members’ bargaining power and enables them to sell their products at higher prices; (4) cooperatives motivate rural laborers to work in off-farm sectors, while self-help groups empower rural women in decision-making; (5) internet use improves agricultural cooperatives’ economic, social, and innovative performances; (6) direct administrative intervention supporting cooperative development may lead to the emergence of shell cooperatives; (7) participation in forest farmer organizations enables wood value chain upgrading; (8) increasing the cooperative size in terms of income, equity, and assets increases the profitability of savings and credit cooperatives; and (9) creating cross-border cooperation between cooperatives generates benefits for all parties involved. These findings can inspire the design of policies aimed to support farmers’ organizations in achieving sustainable development goals.     

Does growing wealth influence hedge funds’ development? An empirical analysis

Alternative investments, such as hedge funds, have, in last years, become an integral part of the investment portfolios of the wealthy. The article’s goal is also to answer the following research question: Does the global wealth of the world have impact on the global value of the hedge funds’ assets? We also try to forecast the value of the hedge funds’ assets for the next years 2015–2017. The results from this study would also be valuable to investors and other stakeholders, such as the regulators and the creditors of the hedge funds.     

Does democracy foster financial development? An empirical analysis

This paper examines whether democracy promotes financial development. While cross-section results show a positive association between democracy and bank development, this relationship disappears in panel regressions. The data also reveals that democracy is not positively related to stock market development.     

Are EU trade preferences really effective? An impact evaluation assessment of the Southern Mediterranean Countries’ case

This work assesses the causal impact of the EU trade preferences granted to the Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMCs) in agriculture and fishery products over the period 2004–2014. It overcomes some of the weaknesses of previous assessments and presents several methodological improvements. Firstly, it relies on a continuous treatment – i.e. preferential margins – to capture the ‘average treatment effect’ of trade preferences, rather than on a binary treatment based on dummy variables. Secondly, it uses highly disaggregated data at sectoral level in order to evaluate properly the preferential treatment. Thirdly, it applies a non-parametric matching technique for continuous treatment – specifically, a generalized propensity score matching. The results show, on the one hand, that the impact of the EU preferences is positive and significant on SMCs trade and is better evaluated using impact evaluation techniques. On the other hand, they demonstrate that the relationship between preferences and trade flows is asymmetric and warn against the risk of providing too much of a good thing. These results raise important issues for policy-making. First, they demonstrate that raising the level of preferences is not the solution to foster the SMCs trade towards EU. Second, that the policy-makers should put more emphasis on complementary factors other than trade barriers.     

Fertility choice,mortality expectations,and interdependent preferences—An empirical analysis

We investigate the empirical relationship between child mortality and fertility across 46 low and middle income countries. Specifically, we model the effect of mortality expectations and interdependent fertility preferences on fertility. The direct marginal effect of mortality expectations on fertility is larger than zero but less than unity. This implies that a decrease in mortality rates leads to a decrease in children born but to an increase in the number of surviving children and hence the rate of population growth. Taking into account interdependent fertility preferences, whereby an individual's fertility choice affects the fertility decisions of others, the marginal effect of mortality expectations on fertility becomes one. Hence, if we allow for both mortality expectations and the amplifying effect of interdependent fertility preferences, a decrease in child mortality has no net effect on the rate of population growth.     

The Militarisation and Marketisation of Nature: An Alternative Lens to ‘Climate-Conflict’

Policies addressing climate change are driving major transformations in access to global land, forests and water as they create new ‘green’ markets that reinforce, and attracts the financial grid and its speculators. This leads us to examine the rise of state violence and subsequent environmental policies in forests, transferring into both ‘fortress’ and ‘participatory’ conservation, enhancing this relationship with new environmental commodity markets. We go on to document how the new and intensifying commodification of the environment associated with climate change is manifest in conflicts linked to the UN-REDD+ programme, industrial tree plantations (ITPs), and land-use practices associated with conservation and biofuels. We trace conflicts to business practices associated with land acquisitions and mining practices which claim to address climate change and mitigate ecological crises. This paper thus grapples with systemic issues of the modern industrial economy and the mechanisms legitimising and advancing the militarisation and marketisation of nature.     

The economic relevance of sustainable agroforestry practices — An empirical analysis from Tanzania

This paper investigates the economic relevance of sustainable behavior of agroforestry practices for smallholders using the example of firewood exploitation in rural Tanzania. Three questions are addressed: (1) To what extent do households behave sustainably regarding firewood extraction from agroforestry? (2) Which factors determine the likelihood of households practicing sustainable agroforestry? (3) Are sustainably behaving households better off in terms of income compared to households practicing unsustainable agroforestry? The analysis is based on cross-sectional data of 314 households. A sustainability indicator shows that the share of sustainable households varies between 14 and 41% depending on the underlying wood growth rate. The results of the logistic regression indicate that property rights regarding the ownership of agricultural land and environmental awareness increase the likelihood of sustainable firewood extraction. Empirical evidence from the quantile regression reveals that poorest households generate higher income if they extract firewood unsustainably. The opposite is true for households of upper income percentiles. Thus, the poor are likely to increase environmental degradation to generate more income causing a ‘downward spiral’ of the poverty–environment trap resulting in income losses in the long run. Households with a per capita income of 524 TZS or more manage their tree stocks sustainably.     

Quantitative evaluation of sustainable development based on ecological footprint method： a case study of Tianjin

Since the coneept of sustainable devetopment emerged in the late 1980s, more and more countries and regions have been utilizing sustainable development as their developing stratety. But decades have passed without any effective methods available to quantitatively assess sustainable development. Since the ecological footprint evaluation method initiated in 1992, it has become popular in quantitative assessment of sustainable development because of its convenience, easy-understanding, and rehability. As one of the biggest coastal cities in north China and the economic center of the Bohai Coastal Region, Tianjin＇s gross domestic product （GDP） was 369. 762 billion yuan in 2005, accounting for 2.0°of the whole nation＇s GDP. The paper analyzes Tianjin＇s development with the ecological footprint method, and the results show that Tianjin＇s ecoiogical footprint and biocapacity in 2005 were 2.507gha/cap and 0.2 76gha/cap respectively. The ecological deficit was 2.230gha/cap.And from 1980 to 2005,Tianjin＇s ecological deficit per 10^4 yuan GDP decreased;while per capita ecological deficit has been tending to increase rapidly in recent years.All these result demonstrate that Tianjin is in a state of unsustainable development.     

Commodity market stabilisation and ‘North-South’ income transfers: An empirical investigation

Commodity stabilisation agreements have often been suggested as a means of stabilising producers' revenues and redistrubuting productive resources to less developed economies (from ‘North’ to ‘South’). But no empirical estimates of how much may be expected from such agreements, nor of what they would cost to operate, have appeared. This paper examines, in the context of one market, how far prices can be stabilised by buffer stock interventions. the costs of that stabilisation, and whether any redistribution would be achieved. We find pure stabilisation leads to transfers away from the South, and that supply restrictions which force redistribution are extremely expensive. However, it is relatively cheap to protect producers on the South against the uncertainty of future revenues.     

Rogue aid? An empirical analysis of China's aid allocation

Foreign aid from China is often characterized as “rogue aid” that is guided by selfish interests alone. We collect data on Chinese project aid, food aid, medical staff and total aid money to developing countries, covering the 1956–2006 period, to empirically test to what extent self‐interests shape China's aid allocation. While political considerations shape China's allocation of aid, China does not pay substantially more attention to politics compared to Western donors. What is more, China's aid allocation seems to be widely independent of recipients' endowment with natural resources and institutional characteristics. Overall, denoting Chinese aid as “rogue aid” seems unjustified.     

Beach ‘lovers’ and ‘greens’: A worldwide empirical analysis of coastal tourism

This paper examines worldwide tourist coastal destination choice using a comprehensive global dataset at the country level, for both domestic and international tourists. This data includes a systematic profile of the countries' coastline with respect to economic and natural environments, such as marine biodiversity related indicators. Tourist demand is modelled using a system of simultaneous structural equations estimated by a 3SLS routine. We identify two tourist demand segments, denoting different preferences for the worldwide coastal destinations. International tourists choose their coastal destination because they have a strong preference for the cultural and natural environments. This, in turn, depends on the destination of country's coastal habitat abundance and marine biodiversity. We label this segment of coastal tourism, as “greens”. Alternatively, domestic tourists have a preference for beach characteristics, in particular beach length. This in turn depends on anthropogenic pressure, the built environment and climatic variables. For this reason we interpret this tourism segment as “beach lovers”. This information is, in turn, of high significance for stimulating coastal tourism demand as well as for identifying market based policy instruments with the objective to finance the conservation of environmental and cultural capital hosted at the coastal communities.     

An econometric analysis of willingness-to-pay for sustainable development: A case study of the Vol?ji Potok landscape area

When the market for a certain good is competitive enough, economic activities can be studied by the market pricing mechanism. Because this is usually not feasible in case of environmental goods with embodied natural and cultural heritage, particular methods for economic valuation of such goods have to be applied. The present article represents the economic valuation of the Landscape Development and Protection Area of Vol?ji Potok, which is an important Slovenian cultural landscape area with internationally recognized qualities. For this purpose we combined classical contingent valuation with a closed-version of discrete choice method, where the protest responses have been removed. By using econometric analysis we obtained the value of willingness-to-pay and established its determinants. We also made an attempt to control for different biases that arise in such analyses. At last, we used the adjusted average individual value of willingness-to-pay to calculate the aggregate willingness-to-pay. The present analysis represents one of the very few applications of the method to Central and Eastern European countries.     

Trade liberalization,financial modernization and economic development: An empirical study of selected Asia–Pacific countries

This study investigates the relationship between trade liberalization, financial modernization and economic development for 14 countries in the Asia and Pacific region over the period spanning from 1961 to 2011. The study uses panel data as they have many advantages over cross-sectional or time series data. In addition to analyzing the full panel, we also divide the 14 countries under study into two sub-samples: high-income countries and middle-income countries, based on World Bank's income classification as of 1st July 2013. The panel cointegration tests show a long run relationship between the above variables. The study uses Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method to estimate the models and then conducts Granger causality tests to identify patterns of causation among the variables of interest. In general, the results indicate unidirectional causality (1) from financial modernization to economic development for the entire panel and the panel of middle-income countries; (2) from trade liberalization to economic development for the whole panel as well as two subpanels of high-income and middle-income countries; and (3) from trade liberalization to financial modernization for the whole panel as well as two subpanels. The findings of this study support that the actual effect of financial depth on economic development (and vice versa) seems to depend on the level of financial development.     

An empirical study of third-party purchase: New Zealand users’ perspective

This article investigates the potential for third-party purchase (3PP) services offered by third-party logistics (3PL) providers, from the perspective of 3PL users, based on transaction cost analysis. We conducted a survey of New Zealand 3PL users and received 163 usable responses. Structural equation modelling was used to test the conceptual model. We found that 3PL users are more likely to adopt 3PP service when there is greater uncertainty. Asset specificity, frequency and transaction size do not have a significant relationship with 3PP service adoption. However, 3PP service is significantly related to the value-to-client and benefit-to-3PL provider. This study is pioneering research on 3PP service as a value-added service offered by 3PL providers from the perspective of 3PL users. The findings suggest that offering 3PP service will provide mutual benefits and value for both 3PL users and their 3PL providers.     

Stepping-stones, dead-ends, or both? An analysis of Swedish replacement contracts

The paper studies whether temporary jobs in the form of fixed-term replacement contracts reduce the risk of future unemployment among job-seekers. Using matching on detailed information on labour market history and personal characteristics we find positive average effects of having a replacement contract. Our second focus is on whether the duration of the contract matters. We use data on replacement contracts with information on the ex ante duration of the contract which is determined by the individual on leave and find no significant effect on the subsequent unemployment risk of the replacement worker. However, the longer the replacement contract the higher is the probability of having an open ended contract at the same site 2–2.5 years after the start of the contract. Overall, the results suggest that replacement contracts may reduce the risk of future unemployment, but that longer contracts only improve the position within the workplace and not necessarily on the labour market in general.