财政分权、劳动保护与劳动收入占比

当前中国劳动收入占比变动与地方政府的政治经济行为决策有着很大的关系,地方政府放松对劳动的保护在相当程度造成了劳动收入在初次分配中的比重持续走低。本文基于省级数据,运用动态面数据的GMM方法着重考察和检验了财政分权驱动下放松劳动保护对劳动收入占比下降的影响,其中一个重要机理是,在财政分权的激励下,地方政府可能放松对劳动的保护并将其作为引资“优惠政策”和争取本地选民的重要手段,而这在一定程度上影响着劳动者应获得的劳动报酬及福利。实证结果表明,财政分权对劳动收入占比产生了显著的负面效应,而财政分权正是通过弱化劳动保护进行传导进而影响到劳动收入占比,因而财政分权能够在很大程度上显著地决定着劳动收入占比的变动,此外,2005年以来所实施的有利于改善劳工保护的系列政策产生了较好的经济效果。最后,本文在此基础上提出了相应的政策建议。     

Japanese fiscal reform: fiscal reconstruction and fiscal policy

This paper evaluates the recent movement of Japanese fiscal reform. We first summarize fiscal policy in 1990s. Then, we investigate several relevant topics of fiscal policy such as the macroeconomic impact of government debt and the sustainability problem. We then consider dynamic properties of fiscal reconstruction process by analyzing the dynamic game among various interest groups. This paper points out that the long-run structural reform is more important than the short-run Keynesian policy in Japan.     

对知识失业的经济学思考

“知识失业”是指受过高等教育的劳动力处于不得其用的一种状态。在我国经济发展的现阶段,“知识失业”现象也开始浮现。本文从经济学供给和需求的角度对我国的“知识失业”产生的原因进行了分析,并提出了有针对性的对策建议。     

The effect of institutional regime change within the new deal on industrial output and labor markets

Markets during the New Deal operated under a number of different institutional regimes, which were marked by executive orders, the passage of various pieces of legislation, and Supreme Court rulings on their constitutionality. Specifically, we break the New Deal period into the following six regimes: the Hundred Days, the President's Reemployment Agreement, the National Recovery Administration Codes of Fair Competition, the Schechter era, the National Labor Relations Act, and the Fair Labor Standards Act. Under these various regimes industrial markets were subject to different regulations relating to hourly wage rates, hours of work, the nature of competition, and unionization. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) regressions are run using a monthly panel of employment, weekly hours worked, wage rates, prices, and output for 11 major industries. We find that key policy and legal changes were associated with large and statistically significant movements in economic variables. Furthermore, changes in institutional regimes impacted different types of industries unevenly. For example, low-wage industries saw the largest increases in wages, and drops in output, after the mandated wage increases in 1933.     

经济体制变迁过程中劳动力市场灵活化变革面临的困境

改革开放以来,我国的经济体制和运行机制发生了深刻的变化。伴随着经济体制的变迁,以及随之进行的劳动力市场政策的调整,我国劳动力市场的灵活性不断提高,从整体劳动力市场的＂过度稳定＂逐步演变为劳动力市场的＂边缘灵活化＂。＂边缘灵活化＂的发展态势使我国劳动力市场的灵活化变革遭遇困境,并对经济发展方式的转型形成了制约。     

Do NBFCs propagate real shocks?

Notwithstanding a smaller share of total loans vis-à-vis commercial banks, we investigate a possible role of Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) in propagating a real shock to the rest of the economy. Our two-sector model captures emerging economy characteristics such as NBFC borrowings from commercial banks, heterogeneities in financial constraints, and labour market friction faced by firms. Our theoretical and simulation results, using Indian parameters, indicate that an idiosyncratic shock (i.e., higher realization of the failed firms) and a sectoral productivity shock (in the sector financed by NBFCs) increase the interest rate charged by the banks, and the unemployment rate while reducing the real wages and per capita capital formation. However, the reverse happens given a structural shock, assumed as an increase in the average number of failed firms. Early detection of such shocks and quick policy intervention are required to provide a cushion for capital formation and job creation.     

FTPL-Perspective on Tradable Deficit Permits in the EMU

The Growth and Stability Pact restricts member states in their fiscal policy but also causes inflexibility in the pursuit of wide-ranging economic and social reforms. Tradable deficit permits allow more flexibility for individual member states and provide a stick for those who exceed the deficit limit but also a carrot to those who stay below it. But does the trade in deficit permits affect the monetary objectives of the European Central Bank (ECB)? We argue that from a perspective of fiscal theory of the price level, trade in deficit permits can lead to higher inflation depending on the growth rate and the debt/GDP ratio of the member states.     

A New EU Member Country on the Road to the Euro Area: Monetary and Fiscal Policies for Slovenia

Slovenia was the first of the ten new EU member states to enter the Euro Area on January 1, 2007. It was an explicit objective of Slovenian policy-makers to introduce the euro as early as possible. Slovenia was participating in the exchange rate mechanism ERM-II since June 2004. This paper analyses whether the choice of participating in the ERM-II soon after EU accession was the best strategy in terms of the macroeconomic performance. It is shown that a better overall economic performance could have been achieved under a crawling peg regime allowing a depreciation of the Slovenian tolar (SIT) before introducing the euro in 2007. The worst policy results are obtained when the exchange rate is totally fixed at an early stage of EMU integration. The labor market performance can be significantly improved by cutting income taxes and social security contribution rates.      

Strategic Interactions Among Central Bank and National Fiscal Authorities in a Monetary Union Subject to Asymmetric Country Shocks

In this paper we extend Nordhaus’ (Brookings Pap Econ Act (2):139–199, 1994) results to an environment which may represent the current European situation, characterised by a single monetary authority and several fiscal bodies. We show that, even assuming that the monetary and the fiscal authorities share the same ideal targets, in the presence of asymmetric shocks the “symbiosis” result found by Dixit and Lambertini (J Int Econ 60:235–247, 2003) no longer obtains. Thus, fiscal rules as those envisaged in the Maastricht Treaty and in the Stability and Growth Pact may work as monetary/fiscal coordination devices that improve welfare. The imposition of common targets, however, may work as a substitute for policy coordination only if these are made state contingent, an aspect that the recent version of the Stability and Growth Pact takes into account in a more appropriate way than its original version.

Fiscal policy in central and Eastern Europe: what happened in the run-up to EU accession?

This paper analyses the evolution of fiscal policy in central and eastern European countries during the EU accession process, testing for country and time specific effects. This is done by constructing Taylor-type policy rules and by calculating three measures of fiscal stance. A key finding is that the differences across countries are more significant than those across time. Baltic countries tended to have had tighter fiscal policy which responded to the output gap, larger central European countries had more lax (and increasingly lax) fiscal policies which were unresponsive to the output gap. These differences correlate closely with cross-country differences in exchange rate regimes and no link is found to either spending composition or political variables. Taken together the results suggest that the exchange rate regime is by far the most significant determinant of fiscal performance. These results suggest that the “soft power” of the prospect of EU entry did not act as a spur to greater fiscal discipline and that higher budget deficits in recent years cannot be blamed on costs of accession.

当前中国宏观经济政策分析

2008年以来,中国经济增长面临着巨大挑战。本文对近两年来中国宏观经济政策进行了梳理,指出中国宏观经济调控中出现的问题并提出政策建议。     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in the Euro Area with Different Assumptions on the Phillips Curve

In this paper we apply a static version of a New Keynesian macromodel to a monetary union (see Bofinger et al., J Econ Educ, 37:98–117 (2006), Walsh, J Econ Educ, 33:333–346 (2002)). We show in particular that a harmonious functioning of a monetary union critically depends on the correlation of shocks that hit the currency area. Additionally a high degree of integration in product markets is advantageous for the ECB as it prevents national interest rates from driving a wedge between macroeconomic outcomes across member states. In particular small countries are in need for fiscal policy as an independent stabilization agent with room to breath.

Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European Countries

We study fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries and what determines the probability of their success. We define consolidation events as substantive improvements in fiscal balances adjusting for the impact of cyclical effects. We use logit models for the period 1991–2003 to assess the determinants of the success of a fiscal adjustment. The results seem to suggest that for these countries expenditure based consolidations have tended to be more successful. By contrast, revenue-based consolidations have a tendency to be less successful. JEL no. C25, E62, H62