Creditor financing and overbidding in bankruptcy auctions: Theory and tests

We present unique empirical tests for auction overbidding using data from Sweden's auction bankruptcy system. The main creditor (a bank) can neither bid in the auction nor refuse to sell in order to support a minimum price. However, we argue that the bank may increase its expected revenue by financing a bidder in return for a joint bid strategy, and we show that the optimal coalition bid exceeds the bidder's private valuation (overbidding) by an amount that is increasing in the bank's ex ante debt impairment. We find that bank–bidder financing arrangements are common, and our cross-sectional regressions show that winning bids are increasing in the bank-debt impairment as predicted. While, in theory, overbidding may result in the coalition winning against a more efficient rival bidder, our evidence on post-bankruptcy operating performance fails to support such allocative inefficiency effects. We also find that restructurings by bank-financed bidders are relatively risky as they have greater bankruptcy refiling rates, irrespective of the coalition's overbidding incentive.     

Vulnerability of fixed-rate funds-supplying operations to overbidding: An experimental approach

While the European Central Bank experienced severe overbidding in the conduct of its fixed-rate operations, the Bank of Japan has not. Theoretical analyses argue that the reason is that the currently accommodative financial environment in Japan has made bidders' objective functions locally satiated. We conduct an experiment with fixed-rate operations and find that, even as participants' initial demands are large, an explosion of bids does not arise if the objective functions are sufficiently satiated. We also estimate the bid functions from the experimental data and a simple calibration based on the functions indicates that fixed-rate operations are vulnerable to overbidding even when some degree of satiation is preserved.     

The sources of country and industry variations in ASEAN

This paper examines the possible determinants for the sources of country and industry variations in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) stock returns across financial crises. Using 4043 firms from 6 ASEAN countries and 40 industries, from 1990 to 2010, we found that lagged country return and concentration are among the determinants that explain the country factors in the region, while size proved to be the determinant of industry factors for both tradable and non-tradable industries. In general, a higher previous return and lower industrial concentration would increase the country factor. We documented the loss of explanatory power of these determinants in the presence of crisis effects.     

Lotteries, public good provision and the degree of rivalry

Under the standard summation technology, pure public goods can be provided via the direct contributions mechanism, even in an arbitrarily large group. However, if the public good exhibits any degree of rivalry, individual consumption of the public good will fall to zero as group size grows large. Thus, the direct contributions mechanism is not robust to the introduction of rivalry. By contrast, Morgan’s (Review of Economic Studies 67:761–784, 2000) lottery mechanism is robust to the introduction of rivalry when the lottery prize is proportional to group size. The lottery mechanism can provide public goods in a large group when the public good exhibits a degree of rivalry, provided that the degree of rivalry is not too high. This suggests that the lottery mechanism can provide a broader range of public goods in a large group than the direct contributions mechanism.     

Investigating sources of unanticipated exposure in industry stock returns

This paper investigates the sources of both foreign exchange rate and interest rate exposure of industry level portfolios in the G7, decomposing exposure into cash flow and discount rate effects. Initial examination of the degree of exposure on industry returns produces results consistent with the prior literature: that there is little evidence of exchange rate exposure in most industries - the exchange rate exposure puzzle. However, rather than relying solely on the sensitivity of industry returns, we examine the cash flow sensitivity to foreign exchange exposure, of primary interest to firm managers. Critically, decomposing the exposure into cash flow and discount rate components unlocks the exact extent and nature of exposure. Our results show industries have significant cash flow and discount rate exposures. These exposures increase with the level of trade openness and the spread between permanent cash flow exposure and transitory discount rate exposure widens.     

从源头遏制金融业IT风险——访中国邮政储蓄银行总行机关纪委书记刘宁

与其他行业相比，金融业由于涉及资金流转，其IT风险管控显得尤为重要，如何有效防范IT风险也成为近年来金融科技部门的热门话题。想要防范风险，必先弄清风险的源头，以便从根本上遏制。关于金融业IT风险的来源，中国邮政储蓄银行（以下简称“邮储”）总行机关纪委书记刘宁总结了四点：科技人员的道德、计算中心的处理能力和带宽、运维机制和应急处理机制、外部侵扰。     

Deal size,acquisition premia and shareholder gains

This study examines the contradictory predictions regarding the association between the premium paid in acquisitions and deal size. We document a robust negative relation between offer premia and target size, indicating that acquirers tend to pay less for large firms, not more. We also find that the overpayment potential is lower in acquisitions of large targets. Yet, they still destroy more value for acquirers around deal announcements, implying that target size may proxy, among others, for the unobserved complexity inherent in large deals. We provide evidence in favor of this interpretation.     

Deal Size,Bid Premium,and Gains in Bank Mergers: The Impact of Managerial Motivations

Do mergers with greater target relative to acquirer size create more value than mergers with smaller relative sized targets? Do larger bid amounts represent wealth transfers from acquirers or do they signal greater expected merger gains? We hypothesize that the relations among aggregate merger gains, relative size, and bid premiums are asymmetric across mergers made by value‐enhancing versus value‐reducing managers. We use a large sample of bank mergers to test these predictions and find that the value response to different explanatory variables is asymmetric. Our findings provide new insights into how the market values merger bids.     

Data preprocessing and data parsimony in corporate failure forecast models: evidence from Australian materials industry

The present study, based on data for delisted and active corporations in the Australian materials industry, is an attempt to develop a systematic way of selecting corporate failure‐related features. We empirically tested the proposed procedure using three datasets. The first dataset contains 82 financial economic factors from the corporation's financial statement. The second dataset comprises 73 relevant financial ratios, which either directly or indirectly measure a corporation's propensity to fail, and are conciliated from the first dataset. The third dataset is a parsimonious dataset obtained from the application of combining a filter and a wrapper to preprocess the first dataset. The robustness of this preprocessed dataset is tested by comparing its performance with the first and second datasets in two statistical (logistic regression and naïve‐Bayes) and two machine learning (decision tree, neural network) classes of prediction models. Tests for prediction accuracies and reliabilities, using the computational (ROC curve, AUC) and the statistical (Cochran's Q statistic) criteria show that the third dataset outperforms the other two datasets in all four predicting models, achieving various accuracies ranges from 81 per cent to 84 per cent.     

文化产业发展:趋势、挑战与机遇

文化产业发展的六大趋势 第一,兼并重组进一步加剧,集约化的程度逐渐提高.因为第一波中国文创产业是从传统文化产业中的一些优势企业发展起来的.接下来这个阶段,会进入到一个并购和创业这样一个大潮,在这个过程中,大的文化产业要通过并购迅速发展壮大,传统的产业需要并购新的力量,所以这个过程中,实际上并购的机会会很多,创业的机会也会很多.     

Target insiders' preferences when trading before takeover announcements: Deal completion probability,premium and deal characteristics

We contribute to the M&A literature by characterizing the information available to target insiders during the pre-public takeover negotiations. We analyze insider trading in target firms in the US between 2005 and 2018. First, we show that signing confidentiality agreements is an important information threshold. Second, insiders have a good grasp of deal success. They increase their net purchases only in deals with higher completion probability. Third, insiders guess the final offer price well, but their trading strategies additionally reflect their knowledge of deal characteristics. They prefer bidder-initiated, cash, privately negotiated, and strategic deals. Insiders combine several sources of information.     

International portfolio diversification: Currency,industry and country effects revisited

We examine the relative importance of country, industry, world market and currency risk factors for international stock returns. Our approach focuses on testing the mean-variance efficiency of the various factor portfolios. An unconditional analysis does not show significant differences between country, industry and world portfolios, nor any role for currency risk factors. However, when we allow expected returns, volatilities and correlations to vary over time, we find that equity returns are mainly driven by global industry and currency risk factors. We propose a novel test to evaluate the relative benefits of alternative investment strategies and find that including currencies is critical to take full advantage of the diversification benefits afforded by international markets.     

Microelectronics,industry, and the third world

As microelectronics revolutionises production in the developed countries, the traditional export successes of the Third world (eg garments and electronics) are threatened. That trade, which has grown rapidly in the past decade, relies heavily on the comparative advantage of low-wage high-skill labour. People are flexible—they can learn new skills and adapt to new fashions. But microprocessors are eroding that advantage. The newly industrialised countries, in particular, may be able to respond by competing in a wider range of exports. However, there is an urgent need for government intervention to ensure that the less developed countries acquire the software capabilities needed to make full use of the new technology.     

Decentralized screening: Coordination failure, multiple equilibria and cycles

We explore the inter-temporal effects of the pool externalities caused by imperfect screening in competitive credit markets. We find that imperfect screening may, depending on the parameters of the model, generate excessive screening, inefficient duplication of screening or screening cycles. Whenever screening cycles occur they are manifestations of either socially excessive or insufficient screening. We present a full equilibrium characterization and a welfare analysis. The implementation of socially optimal lending decisions requires communication across lenders (i.e. information sharing), which decentralized markets typically cannot achieve.     

Recombinant DNA breakthroughs in agriculture,industry, and medicine: A Delphi study

This study attempts to concretely specify some of the breakthroughs to be expected in the biological sciences from Recombinant DNA (RDNA) research and the time frame for their realization. Emphasis is placed on basic knowledge and three applied areas: agriculture, industry and medicine. Dramatic research breakthroughs are expected between 1980 and 2000, with many of these expected to occur in the early 1980s. Some of the breakthroughs cited were development of new nitrogen-fixing plants, a one-celled edible protein, new crops resistant to predators, bacteria for use in waste water and pollution control, petrochemical substitutes, use of gene therapy to correct monogenic diseases such as sickle cell anaemia, use of genetic screening for the isolation of genes responsible for birth defects, and increased knowledge of immunological processes, senescence and cancer.     

金融业软件开发：协同、整合和准确度量

伴随着金融信息化的发展，金融软件开发的规模越来越大、复杂程度越来越高，对软件管理的需求日益迫切。金融软件的开发实践表明，没有得到有效管理的软件开发过程，会导致团队沟通困难、软件重用率低、代码冗余度高、文档不健全、开发周期较长、产品可靠性差、质量低劣、维护困难及风险度增加等问题。加强对软件开发过程的管理，     

Growth, crisis and change in the insurance industry: a retrospect

The insurance industry currently finds itself in a revolutionary situation characterized, in part, by the impact of new direct marketing techniques, facilitated by new technologies; by corporate restructuring and the creation of international mega-corporations; and by the accelerating globalization of the industry. This article surveys recent research on insurance history with the aim of placing these developments in their long-run context. Three areas are examined for evidence of continuities and discontinuities with the past: namely, the impact of technology, the interaction between markets and organizational change, and the globalization of insurance and its relationship to economic growth.