DETERMINANTS OF PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN MALAYSIA: WHAT CAUSES THE POSTCRISIS SLUMPS?

This paper examines the determinants of private investment in Malaysia, with an emphasis on the postcrisis investment slumps. A static private investment function is derived from the neoclassical framework, with appropriate modifications to account for the structural features observed in the country. To introduce dynamics into the model, we adopt a cost minimization problem, which assumes firms optimize investment levels with respect to a quadratic loss function. The results suggest that the availability of financial resources in the economy has a significant positive impact on private investment. Macroeconomic uncertainty exerts a negative influence on the investment climate in the private sector. Both foreign direct investment and public investment are found to have a complementary effect on private investment. Consistent with the prediction of the neoclassical model, a higher level of aggregate output raises private investment, whereas the user cost of capital has the opposite impact. (JEL O16, O53)     

Cooperation and Competition in Climate Change Policies: Mitigation and Climate Engineering when Countries are Asymmetric

We study a dynamic game of climate policy design in terms of emissions and solar radiation management (SRM) involving two heterogeneous countries or group of countries. Countries emit greenhouse gasses (GHGs), and can block incoming radiation by unilateral SRM activities, thus reducing global temperature. Heterogeneity is modelled in terms of the social cost of SRM, the environmental damages due to global warming, the productivity of emissions in terms of generating private benefits, the rate of impatience, and the private cost of geoengineering. We determine the impact of asymmetry on mitigation and SRM activities, concentration of GHGs, and global temperature, and we examine whether a tradeoff actually emerges between mitigation and SRM. Our results could provide some insights into a currently emerging debate regarding mitigation and SRM methods to control climate change, especially since asymmetries seem to play an important role in affecting incentives for cooperation or unilateral actions.     

Institutional Efficiency,Monitoring Costs and the Investment Share of FDI*

This paper models and tests the implications of institutional efficiency on the pattern of FDI. We posit that domestic agents have a comparative advantage over foreign agents in overcoming some of the obstacles associated with corruption and weak institutions. Under these circumstances, FDI is more sensitive to increases in enforcement costs. We then test this prediction, comparing institutional efficiency levels for a large cross‐section of countries in 1989 to subsequent FDI flows through the period of 1990–99, finding that institutional efficiency is positively associated with the ratio of subsequent foreign direct investment flows to both gross fixed capital formation and to private investment.     

促进农民劳动力与资本和谐结合的对策分析

促进农村劳动力与资本在城市和农村的和谐结合是进一步增加农民收入的当务之急。在城市,人为歧视导致经济歧视,进而引起农村劳动力与资本结合度低。在农村,财政、金融和私人投资受限是生产要素结合度低的原因。管理当局可以从强化财政对农民的扶持与保护职能、依靠政策性银行带动商业银行发放贷款、吸引外国和城市私人资本投入、降低农民劳动力流动成本来增强农民投资能力等几个方面来提高双生产要素结合效率。     

Diffusion of Kyoto's clean development mechanism

To date, developed countries can only tap mitigation opportunities in developing countries by investing in projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Yet CDM investments have so far failed to reach all of the high-potential sectors identified in IPCC reports. This raises doubts about whether the CDM will be able to generate an adequate supply of credits from the limited areas where it has proved successful. Our paper examines the current trajectory of potential mitigation entering the CDM pipeline and projects it forward under the assumption that the diffusion of the CDM will follow a path similar to other kinds of innovations. Projections are then compared to pre-CDM predictions of the mechanism's potential market size used to assess Kyoto's cost, in order to discern whether limits on the types of project entering the pipeline will also limit the eventual supply of certified emission reductions (CERs). The main finding of the paper is that the mechanism is on track to deliver an average annual flow of roughly 700 million CERs by the close of 2012 and nearly to 1100 million tons by 2020. Parameter tests suggest that currently identified CDM investments will exceed early model predictions of the potential market for CDM projects.     

资本误配置的影响因素初探

资本市场的各种不完美性会导致资本在企业间不能够以资本的边际产出相等的原则进行配置,从而产生资本误配置(capital misallocation)。本文通过研究中国制造业企业的固定资产投资行为,用模拟矩方法(Simulated Method of Moment,SMM),估计了不同所有制类型的企业的资本调整成本(adjustment cost)函数、投资不可逆(irreversibility)程度以及折现因子(discount factor)(用来计算边际利率)。我们发现,民营企业面临的边际利率要远远高于外资企业,而后者面临的边际利率又高于国有企业和集体企业。不同类型的企业面临差别利率是造成资本误配置的最重要因素,投资不可逆次之,资本调整成本则是相对次要但仍然不可忽略的因素。     

The composition of foreign capital stocks in South Africa: The role of institutions,domestic risk and neighbourhood effects

Foreign capital inflows are an important source of funds to finance investment in developing economies. International finance literature is therefore concerned with how institutional factors like property rights and corruption affect foreign capital inflows. We investigate the determinants of the absolute volumes and composition of foreign capital stocks in South Africa, focusing on the role played by institutional quality (property rights), domestic default risk and neighbourhood effects as potential determinants. The empirical results show that secure property rights and low default risk in the host country positively affect the absolute volumes of both long-term foreign capital and short-term foreign capital, but tilt the composition in favour of long-term foreign capital. Empirical results also demonstrate the existence of neighbourhood effects where the institutional environment in Zimbabwe significantly impacts on South Africa's foreign capital inflows. In this regard, weak property rights in Zimbabwe lead to an increase in South Africa's foreign direct investment (FDI), but a reduction in South Africa's portfolio investment. This suggests that Zimbabwe and South Africa compete for foreign direct investment in similar sectors, and present two alternative investment destinations to foreign investors. By contrast, weak property rights in Zimbabwe appear to raise the perceived risk for portfolio investment in South Africa.     

Investing in public investment: an index of public investment efficiency

Pritchett (J Econ Growth 5:361?C384, 2000) convincingly argued that the difference between investment cost and capital value is of first-order empirical importance especially for developing countries where public investment is the primary source of investment. This paper constructs a public investment efficiency index that captures the institutional environment underpinning public investment management across four different stages: project appraisal, selection, implementation, and evaluation. Covering 71 countries, including 40 low-income countries, the index allows for benchmarking across regions and country groups and for nuanced policy-relevant analysis and identification of specific areas where reform efforts could be prioritized. Research applications are outlined.     

中国工业企业投资的资本成本敏感性分析

本文以新古典投资模型为分析框架,首次使用1999—2007年中国全部国有及规模以上工业企业数据库,采用GMM动态面板方法估计了中国企业投资的资本成本敏感性,并检验了市场化改革是否显著提高了国有企业投资的资本成本敏感性。估计结果显示:(1)中国工业企业投资的资本成本敏感性显著为负,但相比净现金流系数,企业投资受资本成本的影响较小;(2)私营和外资企业的投资对资本成本较为敏感,而国有和集体企业的投资对资本成本不敏感;(3)市场化改革显著弱化了各类型企业的融资约束,但并没有显著提高各类型企业尤其是国有企业投资的资本成本敏感性。中国目前利率传导机制不畅的重点环节在企业投资,双轨制的利率模式和管制利率的低估扭曲了利率的价格信号作用,并创造了资金套利空间,加重了资金市场的二元结构特征,加快利率市场化步伐和继续深化国有企业改革是提高价格型货币政策工具有效性的必要途径。     

The cost of capital for a multinational corporation

Evaluating foreign investments requires as inputs the costs of various sources of financing. A multinational firm could raise both debt and equity in capital markets located in different countries. This paper derives the required rates of return for a foreign investment from: domestic bonds, domestic equity, foreign bonds and foreign equity from both the domestic and foreign investors' perspectives. These required returns serve as the basic components in the calculation of the weighted cost of capital for a foreign project.     

The Impact of Public Infrastructure on the Productivity of the Chilean Economy

The aim of this study is to assess the effect of the change in infrastructure capital on the cost structure of the Chilean economy, and thereby on productivity, differentiating between two key institutional periods. A further aim is to establish the extent to which infrastructure capital formation affects private capital. The authors use an econometric estimation of the cost elasticity of infrastructure. Conclusions indicate that an increased infrastructure capital reduces the production cost of the economy, thereby increasing productivity, mostly in the second period. In turn, especially in this latter period, infrastructure capital formation appears to assert both a positive cost‐share effect on private capital and a negative cost‐share effect on labor. These effects can be explained to a large extent by the significant differences between the institutional structures of the two consecutive periods studied.     

“创新”抑或“关系”？ 儒家文化视角下社会资本与企业战略研究

在经济社会转型期复杂的外部环境下,中国民营企业如何在激烈的市场竞争中调整战略、获取竞争优势并谋求长期发展？基于儒家文化视角考察了社会资本对民营企业战略导向的影响。以中国私营企业为研究样本,发现社会资本降低了企业的资源约束,但也“绑架”企业持续进行关系投入,促进了民营企业的创新战略和关系战略。儒家文化则规制了这种作用,在一定程度增强了企业的创新战略并削弱了关系战略。进一步研究发现,竞争激烈的环境更容易激发企业的战略变革,但外来文化冲击导致的文化冲突削弱了儒家文化的影响。机制检验发现,社会资本通过缓解融资约束,从而支持了民营企业的战略投入。以上结果经过工具变量回归及一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。上述发现拓展了非正式制度下企业行为的研究,为解释中国情境下民营企业的战略行为提供了经验证据。     

国有机构投资者持股能提升企业投资效率吗?

具有国资背景的机构投资者,对于资本市场平稳发展具有重要意义。本文基于我国2015—2019年A股上市公司样本,考察持股对企业投资效率的影响。研究发现,持股显著提升了企业投资效率,并且该影响在代理冲突更严重和所处信息环境更不透明的公司中更加显著。机制检验表明,降低企业内外部信息不对称和代理成本是持股提升企业投资效率的重要渠道。进一步研究发现,国有机构投资者持股时间越长,对企业非效率投资的治理效果越好;细分国有机构投资者类型后发现,致力于长期维护资本市场稳定和上市公司长期健康发展的证金公司和汇金公司对企业投资效率的提升作用显著,但没有发现“救市”基金和外管局旗下的投资平台对企业投资效率有提升作用。研究结论从企业投资效率视角为国有机构投资者持股在微观企业日常经营中发挥的治理作用提供了新颖的经验证据,对进一步提高我国上市公司质量具有启示意义。     

Do foreign institutional investors enhance firm innovation in China?

This paper investigates the impact of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) scheme regulated by the Chinese government on firm innovation in China. By explicitly addressing the potential endogenous relationship between foreign institutional ownership and firm innovation, we find that foreign institutional investors enhance firm innovation in China, suggesting that the Chinese government should further relax its foreign capital investment control, for example, increase the quota of the QFII scheme.     

From the Shadow Price of Capital to the Marginal Cost of Funds: In Search of the Implementation of a Principle

The “folk principle” for multi‐period project evaluation states that if all the costs and benefits of a project are expressed as withdrawals from and increments to private consumption at different time points, then the appropriate discount rate is the consumer's rate of interest. The shadow price of capital (SPC) approach intends to implement this principle, but faces serious practical difficulties. By taking a utility‐based perspective, this paper explains why the SPC approach cannot fully implement the folk principle even theoretically. Then, it derives, as a complete implementation of the folk principle, a multi‐period cost‐benefit rule that is based on the concept of the marginal cost of funds.     

An analysis of government loan guarantees and direct investment through public-private partnerships

This paper compares two forms of government support: loan guarantee and direct investment through public-private partnerships (PPPs). With loan guarantee, government provides financial guarantees to enhance project creditworthiness. With direct investment, government invests capital directly in the project. In both forms of support, the government receives shares proportional to its financial commitment. We find that loan guarantees are more effective in reducing project borrowing costs. In a perfect information environment, loan guarantee support will yield more wealth to the government than a cost equivalent direct investment. But, in an informationally asymmetric environment where the government knows less about project quality than do private partners, in other words the so-called plum problem rather than the familiar lemon problem, this implication is mitigated. We show how the portion of shares given to the government can be a bargaining tool and can mitigate information asymmetry when structuring PPPs.     

A portfolio approach to climate investments: CAPM and endogenous risk

Is there a role for investments in climate change mitigation despite low expected return? We use a model of intertemporal expected utility maximisation to analyse this question. Similar to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) the rate of return depends on the correlation of risk between the return on investments in climate change mitigation and the market portfolio, but in contrast to the classical CAPM we admit the fact that economic and environmental systems are jointly determined, implying that environmental risk is endogenous. Therefore, investments in climate change mitigation may reduce risk via self-protection and self-insurance. If risk reduction is accounted for in cost–benefit evaluations, climate investments may be justified despite low expected return. These aspects of climate investments are not, however, communicated via standard cost–benefit analyses of climate policy. Optimal climate policy may therefore be more ambitious than previously considered.     

State investment tax incentives: A zero-sum game?

Over the past four decades, state investment tax incentives have proliferated. This emergence of state investment tax credits (ITC) and other investment tax incentives raises two important questions: 1) Are these tax incentives effective in achieving their stated objective, to increase investment within the state?; 2) To the extent these incentives raise investment within the state, how much of this increase is due to investment drawn away from other states?To begin to answer these questions, we construct a detailed panel dataset for 48 states for 20+ years. The dataset contains series on output and capital, their relative prices, and establishment counts. The effects of tax variables on capital formation and establishments are measured by the Jorgensonian user cost of capital that depends in a nonlinear manner on federal and state tax variables. Cross-jurisdictional differences in state investment tax credits and state corporate tax rates entering the user cost, combined with a panel that is long in the time dimension, are key to identifying the effectiveness of state investment incentives.Two models are estimated. The Capital Demand Model is motivated by the first-order condition for a profit-maximizing firm and relates at the state level the capital/output ratio to the relative user cost of capital. The Twin-Counties Model exploits both the spatial breaks (“discontinuities”) in tax policy at state borders and our panel dataset to relate at the county level the relative user cost to the location of manufacturing establishments. Using the Capital Demand Model, we find that own-state capital formation is substantially increased by tax-induced reductions in the own-state price of capital and, more interestingly, substantially decreased by tax-induced reductions in the price of capital in competitive-states. Similarly, using our Twin-Counties Model, we find that county manufacturing establishment counts around state borders are higher on the side of the border with the lower price of capital, but the difference is economically small, suggesting that establishments are much less mobile than overall capital. Extensions of the Capital Demand Model also reveal that state capital tax policy appears to be a zero-sum game among the states in that an equiproportionate increase in own-state and competitive-states user costs tends to have no effect on own-state capital formation.     

Agency conflicts in the presence of random private benefits from project implementation

We study a contracting problem where a principal delegates the decision to implement a “project” to an agent who obtains private information about the value of the project before making the implementation decision. Moral hazard arises because the agent gets private random non-contractible benefits, or incurs private random non-contractible costs, if the project is implemented. This contracting problem is pervasive, when “project” and “benefits” are interpreted broadly.     

劳动力转移过程中的高储蓄、高投资和中国经济增长

中国的转轨经济具有独特的增长模式,其典型特征就是持续的高储蓄率和高投资率。本文从劳动力转移的角度,解释了这种模式赖以产生的基础。我们认为,剩余劳动力由农业向工业(工业化)、由农村向城市(城市化)、由国有向非国有(市场化)的持续转移是我国经济能够长期、高速增长的关键,而高储蓄率和高投资率既是这种增长模式的必然结果,也是劳动力得以持续转移乃至这种增长模式得以维持的关键原因。为了防止效率低下的金融部门阻碍劳动力的转移,在开放经济条件下,引入纯粹金融意义的国际直接投资也就成为了必然。与此同时,本国金融部门也将持有一个规模逐步扩大的外汇储备。本文的另一个重要结论是,中国经济的增长和波动是统一的。尽管其中的机制有别于真实经济周期理论,但是,“中性”依然应该作为宏观经济政策的基本出发点。