Portfolio performance manipulation in collateralized loan obligations

We examine the discretionary activities that CLO managers engage in to pass monthly overcollateralization (OC) tests. These tests require a CLO's loan portfolio value, scaled by the CLO notes’ principal balance, to be above a certain threshold. Using CLOs’ granular disclosures, we develop model-free estimates for discretionary loan fair valuation and transaction-based proxies for strategic loan trading. We find a positive association between these discretionary activities and the probability of avoiding an OC test violation. This association varies predictably with junior noteholders’ influence and CLO market conditions. Strategic trading—but not discretionary fair valuation—relates to worse future CLO performance.     

Modeling cause-of-death mortality using hierarchical Archimedean copula

Studying changes in cause-specific (or competing risks) mortality rates may provide significant insights for the insurance business as well as the pension systems, as they provide more information than the aggregate mortality data. However, the forecasting of cause-specific mortality rates requires new tools to capture the dependence among the competing causes. This paper introduces a class of hierarchical Archimedean copula (HAC) models for cause-specific mortality data. The approach extends the standard Archimedean copula models by allowing for asymmetric dependence among competing risks, while preserving closed-form expressions for mortality forecasts. Moreover, the HAC model allows for a convenient analysis of the impact of hypothetical reduction, or elimination, of mortality of one or more causes on the life expectancy. Using US cohort mortality data, we analyze the historical mortality patterns of different causes of death, provide an explanation for the ‘failure’ of the War on Cancer, and evaluate the impact on life expectancy of hypothetical scenarios where cancer mortality is reduced or eliminated. We find that accounting for longevity improvement across cohorts can alter the results found in existing studies that are focused on one single cohort.     

Valuation of defaultable bonds and debt restructuring

In this paper we develop a contingent valuation model for zero-coupon bonds with default. In order to emphasize the role of maturity time and place of the lender's claim in a firm's debt hierarchy, we consider a firm that issues two bonds with different maturities and different seniorage. The model allows us to analyze the implications of both debt renegotiation and capital structure of a firm on the prices of bonds. We obtain that renegotiation brings about a significant change in the bond prices and that the effect is dispersed through various channels: increasing the value of the firm, reallocating payments, and avoiding costly liquidation. Moreover, the presence of two creditors leads to qualitatively different implications for pricing, while emphasizing the importance of bond covenants and renegotiation of the entire debt.     

CDO pricing with nested Archimedean copulas

Companies in the same industry sector are usually more correlated than firms in different sectors, as they are similarly affected by macroeconomic effects, political decisions, and consumer trends. Despite the many stock return models taking this fact into account, there are only a few credit default models that take it into consideration. In this paper we present a default model based on nested Archimedean copulas that is able to capture hierarchical dependence structures among the obligors in a credit portfolio. Nested Archimedean copulas have a surprisingly simple and intuitive interpretation. The dependence among all companies in the same sector is described by an inner copula and the sectors are then coupled via an outer copula. Consequently, our model implies a larger default correlation for companies in the same industry sector than for companies in different sectors. A calibration to CDO tranche spreads of the European iTraxx portfolio is performed to demonstrate the fitting capability of the model. This portfolio consists of CDS on 125 companies from six different industry sectors and is therefore an excellent portfolio for a comparison of our generalized model with a traditional copula model of the same family that does not take different sectors into account.     

Dynamic capital structure with callable debt and debt renegotiations

We consider a dynamic trade-off model of a firm's capital structure with debt renegotiation. Debt holders only accept restructuring offers from equity holders backed by threats which are in the equity holders' own interest to execute. Our model shows that in a complete information model in which taxes and bankruptcy costs are the only frictions, violations of the absolute priority rule (APR) are typically optimal. The size of the bankruptcy costs and the equity holders' bargaining power affect the size of APR violations, but they have only a minor impact on the choice of capital structure.     

On Ponzi schemes in infinite horizon collateralized economies with default penalties

We show, by means of an example, that in models where default is subject to both collateral repossession and utility punishments, opportunities for doing Ponzi schemes are not always ruled out and (refined) equilibria may fail to exist. This is true even if default penalties are moderate as defined in Páscoa and Seghir (Game Econ Behav 65:270–286, 2009). In our example, asset promises and default penalties are chosen such that, if an equilibrium does exist, agents never default on their promises. At the same time collateral bundles and utility functions are such that the full repayment of debts implies that the asset price should be strictly larger than the cost of collateral requirements. This is sufficient to induce agents to run Ponzi schemes and destroy equilibrium existence.     

Hierarchies of Archimedean copulas

We present a flexible class of hierarchical copulas capable of modelling multidimensional joint distributions of asset returns with a richer rank correlation structure than existing models. We derive estimators and simulation techniques. The methods are applied to an illustrative portfolio consisting of a subset of DAX stocks.     

Structural default model with mutual obligations

In this paper we consider mutual obligations in an interconnected bank system and analyze their impact on the joint and marginal survival probabilities for individual banks. We also calculate prices of the corresponding credit default swaps and first-to-default swaps. To make the role of mutual obligations more transparent, we develop a simple structural default model with banks’ assets driven by correlated multidimensional Brownian motion with drift. We calculate closed form expressions for many quantities of interest and use them for the efficient model calibration. We demonstrate that mutual obligations have noticeable impact on the system behavior.     

An overview of the valuation of collateralized derivative contracts

We consider the valuation of collateralized derivative contracts such as interest rate swaps or forward FX contracts. We allow for posting securities or cash in different currencies. In the latter case, we focus on using overnight index rates on the interbank market. Using time varying haircuts, we provide an intuitive way to derive the basic discounting results, keeping in line with the most standard theoretical and market views. In a number of cases associated with margining with major central counterparties, pricing rules for collateralized trades remain linear, thus the use of (multiple) discount curves. We also show how to deal with partial collateralization, involving haircuts, asymmetric CSA, counterparty risk and funding costs. We therefore intend to provide a unified view. Mathematical or legal details are not dealt with and we privilege financial insights and easy to grasp concepts and tools.     

Affirmative obligations and market making with inventory

Existing empirical studies provide little support for the theoretical prediction that market makers rebalance their inventory through revisions of quoted prices. This study provides evidence that the NYSE's specialist does engage in significant inventory rebalancing, but only when not constrained by the affirmative obligation to provide liquidity imposed by the Price Continuity rule. The evidence also suggests that such obligations are associated with better market quality, but impose significant costs on the specialist. The specialist mitigates these costs through discretionary trading when the rule is not binding. These findings shed light on how exchange rules affect market makers’ behavior and market quality.     

Credit derivatives with multiple debt issues

We evaluate the most actively traded types of credit derivatives within a unified pricing framework that allows for multiple debt issues. Since firms default on all of their obligations, total debt is instrumental in the likelihood of default and therefore in credit derivatives valuation. We use a single factor interest rate model where the exponential default frontier is based on total debt and is made coherent with observed bond prices. Analytical formulae are derived for credit default swaps, total return swaps (both fixed-for-fixed and fixed-for-floating), and credit risk options (CROs). Price behaviors and hedging properties of all these credit derivatives are investigated. Simulations document that credit derivatives prices may be significantly affected by terms of debt other than those of the reference obligation. The analysis of CROs indicates their superior ability to fine-tune the hedging of magnitude and arrival risks of default.     

Relative Valuation with Machine Learning

We use machine learning for relative valuation and peer firm selection. In out-of-sample tests, our machine learning models substantially outperform traditional models in valuation accuracy. This outperformance persists over time and holds across different types of firms. The valuations produced by machine learning models behave like fundamental values. Overvalued stocks decrease in price and undervalued stocks increase in price in the following month. Determinants of valuation multiples identified by machine learning models are consistent with theoretical predictions derived from a discounted cash flow approach. Profitability ratios, growth measures, and efficiency ratios are the most important value drivers throughout our sample period. We derive a novel method to express valuation multiples predicted by our machine learning models as weighted averages of peer firm multiples. These weights are a measure of peer–firm comparability and can be used for selecting peer-groups.     

Public debt in economies with heterogeneous agents

We study public debt in competitive equilibria in which a government chooses transfers and taxes optimally and in addition decides how thoroughly to enforce debt contracts. If the government enforces perfectly, asset inequality is determined in an optimum competitive equilibrium but the level of government debt is not. Welfare increases if private debt contracts are not enforced. Borrowing frictions let the government gather monopoly rents that come from issuing public debt without facing competing private borrowers. Regardless of whether the government chooses to enforce private debt contracts, the level of initial government debt does not affect an optimal allocation.     

Option Valuation with Systematic Stochastic Volatility

We use an extension of the equilibrium framework of Rubinstein ( 1976 ) and Brennan ( 1979 ) to derive an option valuation formula when the stock return volatility is both stochastic and systematic. Our formula incorporates a stochastic volatility process as well as a stochastic interest rate process in the valuation of options. If the “mean,” volatility, and “covariance” processes for the stock return and the consumption growth are predictable, our option valuation formula can be written in “preference-free” form. Further, many popular option valuation formulae in the literature can be written as special cases of our general formula.     

Accounting-Based Valuation with Changing Interest Rates

This paper generalizes Ohlsons [Contemporary Accounting Research Vol. 11 No. 2. 661–687 (1995)] equity valuation framework to allow for stochastic interest rates. Much of this analysis initially deals with the specialized setting in which earnings suffice for cum-dividend value. In such a case, the beginning-of-period (lagged) rate determines the capitalization factor, not the current rate. The underlying earnings dynamic modifies the traditional random walk model via an additional term, namely current earnings multiplied by the percentage change in interest rates. The general model retains these basic aspects of the earnings-sufficiency setting. Empirical implications bear on the returns-to-earnings regression: The earnings-response coefficient decreases as the beginning-of-period rate increases.JEL Classification: M41, G12     

2010年证券评估资格资产评估机构执业质量实地检查工作全面展开

为了督促资产评估机构改进和提升内部管理、执业水平,提高注册资产评估师执业能力和职业道德素养,促进资产评估行业优质服务,提升评估行业社会公信力,中国资产评估协会（以下简称＂中评协＂）根据《财政部关于开展2010年资产评估行业执业质量检查工作的通知》（财企[2010]99号）和《资产评估执业质量自律检查办法》（中评协[2006]98号）的要求．     

Performance analysis of a collateralized fund obligation (CFO) equity tranche

This article examines the performance of the junior tranche of a collateralized fund obligation (CFO), i.e. the residual claim (equity) on a securitized portfolio of hedge funds. We use a polynomial goal programming model to create optimal portfolios of hedge funds, conditional to investor preferences and diversification constraints (maximum allocation per strategy). For each portfolio, we build CFO structures that have different levels of leverage, and analyze both the stand-alone performance as well as potential diversification benefits (low systematic risk exposures) of investing in the equity tranche of these structures. We find that the unconstrained mean-variance portfolio yields a high performance, but greater exposure to systematic risk. We observe the exact opposite picture in the case of unconstrained optimization, where a skewness bias is added, thus proving the existence of a trade-off between stand-alone performance and low exposure to systematic risk factors. We provide evidence that leveraged exposure to these hedge fund portfolios through the structuring of CFOs creates value for the equity tranche investor, even during the recent financial crisis.