老龄退休人员的劳动供给行为经济学分析

本文在一般均衡世代交叠模型框架下研究了退休后劳动供给对于主要经济变量的影响。结果表明：老年人退休后劳动供给的增加会导致劳动相对于资本贬值、人均资本存量和人均产出降低、个人消费和储蓄降低、个人福利下降。由于增加退休后劳动供给和延迟退休年龄具有较强的替代关系,本文认为这一结论对于延迟退休年龄决策有一定的借鉴意义。     

关于我国人口老龄化背景下延迟法定退休年龄的分析

我国现行的法定退休年龄规定延续于20世纪50年代的退休制度设计,严重不适宜我国目前快速进入老龄化社会、人口预期寿命延长以及社会养老保险压力过重等情况。对此,社会广泛关注我国退休政策改革,特别是延迟法定退休年龄。本文就我国现行法定退休年龄存在的问题进行分析,认为有必要延迟退休年龄。     

关于我国人口老龄化背景下延迟法定退休年龄的分析

我国现行的法定退休年龄规定延续于20世纪50年代的退休制度设计,严重不适宜我国目前快速进入老龄化社会、人口预期寿命延长以及社会养老保险压力过重等情况。对此,社会广泛关注我国退休政策改革,特别是延迟法定退休年龄。本文就我国现行法定退休年龄存在的问题进行分析,认为有必要延迟退休年龄。     

发达国家延迟退休的经验教训及其对我国的启示

延迟退休年龄是社保制度改革的百年大计和社会稳定的百年大计。从世界范围内看,中国延迟退休改革涉及人数最多、一次性延退年龄最长,可以说前无古人,后无来者,举世瞩目。本文认为,可以结合发达国家实施延迟法定退休年龄的经验教训和具体做法,按照“十四五”规划纲要小步调整、弹性实施、分类推进、统筹兼顾等原则逐步延迟法定退休年龄。     

“延迟退休”对我国就业市场的影响分析

随着我国人口老龄化不断加剧,退休政策改革成为全社会关注焦点。按照“小步调整、弹性实施、分类推进、统筹兼顾”等原则,逐步延迟法定退休年龄,实施“渐进式”延迟退休。从“研究制定”到“逐步实施”,表明正式推出延迟退休开始进入倒计时。本文在分析我国就业市场现状,延迟退休为就业市场带来的机遇和挑战的基础上,对我国实施“渐进式”延迟退休提出一些建议。     

延迟退休,国外怎么做?

延迟退休一直是大众关注的热门话题,毕竟退休关乎每个人的利益.不少发达国家早已步入老龄化国家的行列.从全球范围对退休年龄进行比较,我国的法定退休年龄相对来说是比较早的,很多国家的法定退休年龄都在65岁左右,并且仍准备再延迟退休的法定年龄.     

渐进式延迟退休年龄对职工医保基金可持续的影响——基于上海市数据的模拟分析

随着老龄化程度的加深,我国职工医保统筹基金可持续性受到威胁。本文以上海市职工医保为例,建立职工医保统筹基金精算模型,分析八套延迟退休方案对上海市职工医保基金财务运行的影响,研究发现：如果仍实行现行退休政策,统筹基金将分别于2024年和2034年开始出现当期赤字和累计赤字。如果实施先延迟女性、后延迟男性退休年龄的方案,当延退速度为每年延迟2个月、3个月、4个月和6个月时,统筹基金出现累计赤字的时点不变,2050年累计赤字规模逐渐减小。如果实施同时延迟男、女性退休年龄的方案,四种延退速度方案下均可延后统筹基金出现累计赤字的时点,2050年累计赤字规模进一步缩小。如果将退休职工纳入医保缴纳人群,能够进一步改善基金情况。可见,延迟退休年龄政策能在一定程度上提高上海市职工医保基金的抗风险能力。据此,本文提出尽快实施延迟退休年龄及其他提高医保基金可持续性的政策、辅以配套措施助力延迟退休年龄政策实施等建议。     

改革退休年龄的时机和方案设计——基于陕西省基本养老保险省级统筹运行效果分析

本文从陕西省养老保险省级统筹基金的运行效果入手,说明在现行制度下未来养老基金缺口较大。通过设计改革退休方案,结合未来陕西的退休人口数量,运用定量的分析手法来论证改革退休年龄方案的可行性,希望通过推迟参保职工的退休年龄来增加缴费人数、降低在职人口抚养老年人口的系数,这种减少未来养老金支付压力的做法主要是依靠退休年龄的延迟从而达到纵向的扩面,实现调整,通过循序渐进的方式来逐年缓解基金缺口。     

国外延迟退休年龄的方案对河北省实施退休计划的经验启示

随着人口老龄化进程的加快以及由此而带来的养老金缺口,许多国家纷纷采取延迟退休年龄的策略来缓解这一危机。参照美国、德国、法国等国家实施的退休方案为河北省的退休方案提供借鉴的意义。     

看国外的养老经验

西班牙：鼓励推迟退休 西班牙目前有65岁及以上人口753万多,占全国人口比例接近17％。这一比例位居日本、意大利之后．为世界第三位。养老是西班牙社会保障体系的支柱之一,养老金每年根据消费者物价指数进行调整,以保证老年人的收入年年都有提高。同时,政府实施鼓励推迟退休的政策．即在法定的退休年龄65岁之后,每延迟一年退休,养老金增加3%,退休年龄最高可延迟至70岁。     

渐进式差异化退休年龄的决定机制、经验借鉴与政策建议

退休年龄本质上是劳动者在职期间的劳动贡献与退休后所享福利之间的均衡。公平、合理、科学的确定退休年龄,对劳动者在生命周期不同阶段(在职期间与退休之后)的福利具有十分重要的影响。借鉴我国台湾地区经验,结合大陆实际,以工作年限为基础,采用渐进式、差异化的退休年龄政策,即采取"95(99)=标准退休年龄+工作年限"的思路,在"95制"、"96制"、"97制"、"98制"和"99制"五个方案进行优选渐进,对不同类型劳动者(工种、受教育程度、性别等)应采取差异化的退休年龄政策。     

延迟退休对城镇职工养老保险收支影响的净效应估计——基于2025年起渐进式延迟退休年龄的假设

鉴于延迟退休对养老金收支有多重影响,本文假定2025年起以"每4年延迟1年"节奏,逐步将男(女)养老金正常领取年龄(NRA)从60(55)岁提高至2049年的65(60)岁,利用中国未来分年龄人口数的完整估计数据,估算了延迟退休对城镇职工基本养老保险收支影响的净效应。估算结果显示,延迟退休为2050年争取到了近25%的制度赡养比下降空间,养老压力高峰期大大推迟。无论延迟与否,未来养老金收支缺口规模都很大,但延迟退休对抑制缺口扩大仍有显著效果,特别是在短中期,每年的收支缺口会因此减少40%~70%,但2050年后的远期效果明显减弱。建议尽早实施渐次延迟退休,减少工作退休的强制性,尊重国情允许男女差龄退休;加强养老金财政补贴长期规划,减轻远期财政兜底压力;加强养老金缴费与受益的精算联系,大力提高基金投资效率等。     

The Political Feasibility of Increasing the Retirement Age: Lessons from a Ballot on the Female Retirement Age

In 1998, the Swiss voters approved of an increase in the female retirement age within the public pension system from 62 to 64. The referendum, being on a single issue only, offers a unique opportunity to explore the political feasibility of pension reforms and to apply theoretical models of life-cycle decision making. Estimates carried out with municipality data suggest that the outcome of the vote conforms well with predictions drawn from a theoretical model. Young agents, elderly and—to a lesser extent—middle-aged men favor an increase in female retirement age, while middle-aged women strongly oppose it. Richer communities and those with a high proportion of self-employed or a low fraction of blue-collar workers are more likely to opt for a higher retirement age. Ideological preferences and regional differences also play a considerable role.     

基本养老保险制度下女性养老金水平研究——兼析养老金性别差异

基本养老保险制度运行10多年来,在提供退休保障方面发挥了重要的积极作用。但女性养老金问题值得高度重视。其中,女性退休年龄是影响养老金水平的重要因素,还带来了养老金性别差异。女性退休年龄已经与政策目标以及预期寿命不符,对既不利于保障退休生活,也不利于制度的健康持续发展。从国际比较看,我国女性退休年龄低于国际及亚太地区平均水平,而养老金替代率的性别差异也明显大于国际水平。因此,应在统筹考虑我国养老金体系建设的前提下,抓紧研究论证提高退休年龄,特别是先行逐步提高女性退休年龄的方式方法。     

我国职工退休年龄影响因素的实证研究

当前我国劳动力逐渐短缺,职工退休年龄直接关系到我国劳动力供给的数量和结构。使用2011年在广东省21个地市的问卷调查数据,研究影响职工退休年龄问题的影响因素。实证研究表明,工资、工龄对职工退休年龄的影响显著为正。养老金对男职工退休年龄的影响显著为负。机关事业单位职工的退休年龄更晚。教育年限对女职工的影响显著为正。已婚、...     

Accounting and the construction of the retired person

This paper seeks to describe the constitutive role played by accounting in the social safety net for the elderly, and its effects on the individual preparing for retirement. The paper documents the effects of accounting on life-long behaviours, through the objectivization of the individual as a worker, saver, and pensioner. It shows how accounting has, by capturing measures of individual earnings, by enlisting the individual in the preparation of tax returns, and by reflecting back to the individual various accumulations of lifetime savings, attempted to transform that individual not just into a saver who can continue to consume long after ceasing to produce, but into an investor whose interests are aligned with the financial markets. The focus of the paper is the Canadian retirement income system. Starting with an early attempt at retirement income protection, the 1908 government annuities program, the paper develops a genealogy of Canada’s present comprehensive retirement income system. By examining the succession and accumulation of retirement income programs introduced since 1908, the study shows how accounting has functioned as a dividing practice, separating citizens into categories wherein they can be subjected to particular programs. The paper suggests that the accounting technologies used in constructing the Canadian system have fallen short as tools for governing retirement and retirement savings, largely due to their inadequacy as technologies of the self. The paper is of particular relevance to accounting scholars because the aging population in many countries is putting tremendous pressure on retirement income programs. The paper helps us to understanding the role of accounting in shaping political policy on the aged and in preparing citizens for old age.     

延迟退休年龄、内生生育率与养老金

本文通过构建内生生育率的OLG模型,从微观视角考察了延迟退休年龄对生育率、养老金替代率及其个人养老金收入的影响。研究表明:(1)延迟退休年龄会提高均衡时的生育率水平,但提高幅度非常有限。(2)生育率的提高会增加未来劳动力供给,促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加,而延迟退休年龄延长了养老保险缴费期限,也会促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加;但同时,延迟退休年龄将使得预防性储蓄下降,资本积累降低,工资收入下降,养老金收入降低。因此,延迟退休年龄会使养老金替代率上升。当资本产出弹性大于或等于0.5时,延迟退休年龄会使得养老金收入降低;当资本产出弹性小于0.5时,在平均预期寿命较大或养老保险缴费比例较高的情形下,养老金收入会随着退休年龄的延迟而增加,反之,其会随着退休年龄的延迟而降低。进一步地,将模型拓展到包含人力资本的情形,延迟退休年龄仍会提高均衡时的生育率与养老金替代率。     

CEO Preferences and Acquisitions

This paper explores the impact of target CEOs’ retirement preferences on takeovers. Using retirement age as a proxy for CEOs’ private merger costs, we find strong evidence that target CEOs’ preferences affect merger activity. The likelihood of receiving a successful takeover bid is sharply higher when target CEOs are close to age 65. Takeover premiums and target announcement returns are similar for retirement‐age and younger CEOs, implying that retirement‐age CEOs increase firm sales without sacrificing premiums. Better corporate governance is associated with more acquisitions of firms led by young CEOs, and with a smaller increase in deals at retirement age.     

An Individual’s Chosen Retirement Age: When is the Economically Feasible Retirement Age Chosen over the Anchor Provided by Known Others?

Abstract

Do individuals make rational, well-planned retirement age decisions? Evidence is not conclusive; some decisions seem to be quite reasonable, while others, including the long-term trends generated by these decisions, seem irrational. In order to be able to predict and influence these important decisions, the process leading up to making them needs to be better understood. The process an individual uses to make a retirement decision may be influenced by a rational allocation of money, time, and effort, as suggested by a utility-maximizing Household Production approach. Alternately, the decision process may be strongly influenced by an anchor, defined by the retirement ages chosen by friends, neighbors, relatives, and colleagues, as suggested by Anchoring and Prospect Theory. Studies investigating anchoring and risk-seeking or risk-aversion behavior, which results when a target is seen as a loss or a gain from the anchor, have found that individuals make irrational decisions under many different circumstances. A set of retirement decision propositions, which hypothesize that the heuristic of Anchoring and the resulting cognitive biases described by Prospect Theory will influence the chosen retirement age, are developed in this paper. Retirement information provided by the employer is a possible moderator that may reduce the influence of the anchor on the retirement decision; a set of moderator hypotheses are also developed in this paper. Propositions strongly supported by existing research predict that, unless sufficient information regarding retirement issues is used by an individual, he or she is likely to choose an inappropriate retirement age.     

Power and ideas: The development of retirement savings taxation in Australasia

New Zealand and Australia have adopted vastly different approaches to retirement savings and its associated taxation. Two fundamental differences exist: New Zealand offers little in the way of tax incentives for retirement savings and there is no compulsion for retirement savings; Australia provides highly concessionary tax incentives and has a mandatory occupational retirement savings scheme. This paper uses a historical institutionalism theoretical framework to investigate the events that led to these diverse approaches in retirement savings taxation between two countries that frequently adopt similar policy ‘solutions’.The research highlights the importance of power and ideas in the policy development process. Power imbalances among institutions and individuals facilitated the pursuit of tax and retirement savings policy arrangements that were aligned with the world view of privileged elites. Ideas justified the policy direction adopted in each country and assisted in legitimising the power granted to actors and institutions that supported the prevailing ideology. The strongest ideas were found in New Zealand, where reform was the most radical.