PPP,interest rate parities,and the modified Fisher effect in the presence of tax agreements: A comment

If no taxes exist, perfect mobility and substitutability (international Fisher parity — IF) and purchasing power parity (PPP) result in real interest rate equality. The existence of taxes, however, prevents all three parity relationships from holding simultaneously. Costless financial arbitrage plus costless goods arbitrage are the assumptions of IF and PPP, respectively. If residency arbitrage is expensive, IF and PPP will result in unequal real rates that give no incentive for capital or goods flows. Differences in real rates may come either from differences in income tax rates or from differential inflation.     

The Fisher puzzle,real rate anomaly,and Wicksell effect

We study the relationships between interest and inflation rates using a recursive equation approach that takes into account both Fisher and Wicksell effects. Extending previous work, a state–space representation is used to estimate time-varying ex post Fisher and Wicksell equation effects. We subsequently recover ex ante interest and inflation rate series. Using these ex ante rate series, we estimate an ex ante Fisher equation, including both time-varying intercept estimates of the ex ante real interest rates and time-varying Fisher coefficients. Our results for the U.S. and three other countries support the Fisher propositions after taking into account Wicksell effects.     

Stochastic durations,the convexity effect,and the impact of interest rate changes

This article shows that the equilibrium models of bond pricing do not preclude arbitrage opportunities caused by convexity. Consequently, stochastic durations derived from these models are limited in their ability to act as interest rate risk measures. The research of the present article makes use of an intertemporal utility maximization framework to determine the conditions under which duration is an adequate interest rate risk measure. Additionally, we show that zero coupon bonds satisfy those equilibrium conditions, whereas coupon bonds or bond portfolios do not as a result of the convexity effect. The results are supported by empirical evidence, which confirms the influence of convexity on the deviation of coupon bond returns from equilibrium.     

On interest rates,inflationary expectations and tax rates

This paper provides new evidence on the relationship between inflation and the rate of interest for the United States during the 1953–1984 period. The results indicate that contrary to most previous studies, the Fisher hypothesis is inverted, which means that it is the real rate of interest rather than the nominal rate that moves inversely to the rate of inflation. However, this is the case only during periods of relatively stable inflation rates and moderate regulatory change. Over longer periods when factors are more volatile the inverted Fisher hypothesis is rejected.     

权益集合法与购买法：吸收合并案例分析

本文在借鉴国际惯例的基础上,分析国内证券市场新近发生的两起市场化吸收(换股)合并案例发现,第一百货吸收合并华联商厦案例对于我国企业合并更具普遍意义.我国已具备使用购买法的环境,但应作适当修正以适应我国股权分裂的现状,最关键的是以账面净资产作为计量购买支付对价的依据,重点考察非流通股换股比率,而不考虑包含流动性溢价要素的股票市价及相关的流通股换股比率.     

Fair insurance guaranty premia in the presence of risk-based capital regulations,stochastic interest rate and catastrophe risk

A multiperiod model is developed to measure the costs posed to the guaranty fund in a setting that incorporates risk-based capital regulations, interest rate risk and the possibility of catastrophic losses. The guaranty contract is modeled as a put option on the asset of the insurance company with a stochastic strike price and an uncertain maturity. The impacts of the key factors of this model are examined numerically and shown to make material differences in the costs to the guaranty fund.     

Tax competition and tax base equalization in the presence of multiple tax instruments

The literature on tax competition has argued that tax base equalization, which reduces regional disparities in tax bases, can serve as a means of internalizing horizontal and vertical fiscal externalities. This argument assumes that each government relies on a single tax base (a regional tax on mobile capital and a federal tax on savings). This paper considers the case in which a distortionary labor tax is also available. Internalizing fiscal externalities requires that while the regional capital tax base is fully equalized, a region’s equalization entitlement for the labor tax is positive when its tax base is “larger” than the average tax base of all regions. This efficient tax base equalization system is incompatible with the primary objective of fiscal equalization.

     

On the value and determinants of the interest tax shields

We use a dynamic model of the firm to ascertain both the value and the determinants of the debt tax shields. For a representative U.S. firm, we find that the value of the interest tax shields represents less than 5 % of firm value, and it varies considerably across U.S. industries. Our results also show that this component of firm value behaves counter-cyclically over the business cycle. Finally, besides the interest rate on debt and the corporate income tax rate, we find that the curvature of the production function is one of the main determinants of the tax advantage of debt.     

Interest rates,inflation, and the Fisher effect in China

The paper estimates the relationship between the nominal Treasuries rate and inflation in China. The dynamic econometric analysis yields a preferred, automatically reduced, empirical model revealing a Fisher effect. But the results are sensitive to using different sub-samples encompassed in the decade-and-a-half period following the disassociation of Treasuries from the People’s Bank of China administered interest rates at the end of the 1990s.     

Inventories,credit transactions,and the marginal effective tax rate

It is observed that marginal effective tax rates (METR), as conventionally calculated, can only consider working capital requirements to a limited extent. A formula is derived to incorporate inventory requirements into the calculation and, via a numerical example, it is shown that such an incorporation can radically alter METRs from those conventionally calculated. The analysis is extended to credit transactions without affecting the above conclusion. Thus, if METRs are to be used as a means of evaluating the effects of tax policy on the incentive to invest, working capital requirements need to be explicitly allowed for.     

Asymmetric tax competition in the presence of lobbying

This paper incorporates the influence of interest groups into the asymmetric tax competition model to explain the phenomenon that small countries do not necessarily set lower capital tax rates than large countries. In addition to the efficiency effect considered by the standard model, which leads the smaller country to set a lower capital tax rate, this present paper also takes account of the political effect arising from lobbying. We show that the smaller country may face less downward political pressure. If the political effect outweighs the efficiency effect, then the smaller country sets a higher tax rate than the larger country. This result has several welfare implications, which are in contrast to the conventional consequences.     

Asymmetric capital tax competition and choice of tax rate

This article provides an alternative mechanism that explains differences in capital tax rates, which applies to small jurisdictions. In the framework of standard capital tax competition models, regions have to be large, in the sense of having market power, otherwise they will tax capital, a mobile factor, at the same rate. In this paper, we consider a second mobile factor, labor, which is mobile only within metropolitan areas. We will show that this spatially limited mobile factor may explain the capital tax rate differences levied on the global mobile factor as long as no source-based wage tax is available. In addition to the theoretical treatment, numerical simulations also confirm this result and show a significant tax differential.     

Purchasing power parity, unit roots, and dynamic structure

Recent studies of purchasing power parity (PPP) account for the possible presence of unit roots in nominal exchange rates and relative price indices by applying standard unit-root tests to real exchange rates, which are ratios of nominal exchange rates and relative price indices. These studies occasionally find evidence of PPP, but as a whole, the evidence is not definitive. Standard unit-root tests impose a restrictive dynamic structure between nominal exchange rates and relative price indices. I specify and estimate a generalized dynamic structure. I reject the dynamic restrictions implicit in standard unit-root tests of PPP, and find stronger evidence of PPP than do most other recent studies.     

Bank runs,the deposit-currency ratio and the interest rate

This paper provides a model of an economy with a banking system which is subject to bank runs. The model is then used to explain the rise in short-term interest rates during bank runs and the fall in the deposit-currency ratio in anticipation of possible runs.     

Do tax sparing agreements contribute to the attraction of FDI in developing countries?

Measuring the effects of taxation on FDI in developing countries requires consideration of the tax sparing provision. This provision signed between developed and developing countries protects host country fiscal incentives for FDI. This paper estimates the impact of tax sparing provisions on Japanese outbound FDI between 1989 and 2000. We find evidence that the tax sparing provision influences positively the location of Japanese FDI, even after having taken into account reversal causality. JEL Classification F23 · H25 · H32 We Thank Michael Devereux, Edward Graham, Robert Lipsey, David Margolis, Claudia Rivas, Deborah Swenson, anonymous referees and seminar participants at the Franco-Korean conference in Seoul, and at the Western Economic Association conference in Vancouver for helpful discussions.     

Duration, factor sensitivities, and interest rate Greeks

In this paper, we introduce for interest rate sensitive assets the natural analogs of delta and gamma for equity options by considering the derivatives of asset prices with respect to the directions along which the forward rate curve may evolve. Macaulay duration and convexity, as well as stochastic duration considered in Cox et al. (J Business 52:51–61, 1979) and Munk (Rev Derivat Res 3:157–181, 1999), are easily obtained as special cases of these in which the derivatives are computed along parallel shifts and the direction of the forward rate volatilities, respectively. Moreover, we demonstrate using the example of the Ritchken and Sankarasubramanian (Math Financ 5:55–72, 1995) model that the hedging strategy based on these sensitivity measures provides a superior performance in comparison to the traditional duration based hedging approaches.      

Corporate profitability and effective tax rate: the enforcement effect of large taxpayer units

This paper examines how Large Taxpayer Units (LTUs), a commonly-used tool for enforcing tax compliance, affect large firms’ reported profitability and effective tax rate. Increased scrutiny may either improve reporting and compliance efforts, or lead to adverse reactions from large taxpayers such as profit shifting to reduce tax liabilities. As a source of exogenous enforcement shock, we exploit the actions of Jamaica's LTU around its large-taxpayer eligibility cutoff using a before-during regression discontinuity approach. We find the LTU increases pre-tax profit margin by 2–3 percentage points. Increased effective tax rates are also evidenced, albeit less robustly.     

Noise traders,exchange rate disconnect puzzle,and the Tobin tax

This paper proposes a framework to explain the “exchange rate disconnect puzzle”. Two types of foreign exchange traders, rational traders and noise traders are introduced into a sticky-price general-equilibrium model. The presence of noise traders creates deviations from the uncovered interest parity. Combined with local currency pricing and consumption-smoothing behavior, our model can help to explain the “disconnect puzzle”. The excess exchange rate volatility caused by noise traders can be reduced by the ‘Tobin tax’. However, the effect of the ‘Tobin tax’ depends on the market structure and the interaction between the Tobin tax and other trading costs.     

Double leverage cycle,interest rate,and financial crisis

We view mortgage as a risky derivative of its underlying house collateral and combine no-arbitrage valuation with equilibrium valuation approaches to develop a dynamic model of leverage cycle and interest rate. This model provides a unified explanation to pro-cyclical optimism, asset prices, and leverage, and counter-cyclical volatility and interest rate. In addition, the model shows that tightening funding margin in the mortgage securities market dampens optimism, asset prices, and leverage, whereas it raises volatility and interest rate in the housing market. A double leverage cycle leads to more volatile markets and a severe leverage cycle, thus resulting in worse financial crises.     

Time-varying market,interest rate,and exchange rate risk premia in the US commercial bank stock returns

This paper examines the role of market, interest rate, and exchange rate risks in pricing a sample of the US Commercial Bank stocks by developing and estimating a multi-factor model under both unconditional and conditional frameworks. Three different econometric methodologies are used to conduct the estimations and testing. Estimations based on nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression (NLSUR) via GMM approach indicate that interest rate risk is the only priced factor in the unconditional three-factor model. However, based on ‘pricing kernel’ approach by Dumas and Solnik [(1995). J. Finance 50, 445–479], strong evidence of exchange rate risk is found in both large bank and regional bank stocks in the conditional three-factor model with time-varying risk prices. Finally, estimations based on the multivariate GARCH in mean (MGARCH-M) approach where both conditional first and second moments of bank portfolio returns and risk factors are estimated simultaneously show strong evidence of time-varying interest rate and exchange rate risk premia and weak evidence of time-varying world market risk premium for all three bank portfolios, namely those of Money Center bank, Large bank, and Regional bank.