Internal migration in West Germany and implications for East-West salary convergence

Internal Migration in West Germany and Implications for East-West Salary Convergence. — Using a simple model of gross migration, the paper shows that provided economic agents are sufficiently risk averse, migrational flows are likely to be procyclical. The econometric results confirm that flows are highly procyclical. They further indicate that changes in regional economic disparities significantly affect migrational flows. However, given the widening of regional disparities in the 1980s accompanied by a worsening in aggregate conditions, migration seems least effective in offsetting the differentiated impact of labor market shocks when it would be most useful. The paper concludes by applying the results to the issue of east-west migration and salary convergence.     

Racial differences in unemployment: A spatial perspective

Conclusions It has been demonstrated that racial differences in unemployment in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas are widespread. The differences tend to vary, however, by region with the greatest difference occurring in the metropolitan areas of the North-Central region and the least difference occurring in the metropolitan areas in the West.     

The scale of Norwegian interwar unemployment in international perspective

Abstract

The author offers revised estimates of Norwegian interwar unemployment, and argues that total unemployment as a percentage of the labour force was considerably lower than the unemployment rate for trade unionists. The new figures, suggesting annual unemployment to hover between 5 and 10 percent for most of the interwar period, seem somewhat lower than the scale of Norwegian interwar unemployment according to the conventional view. However, they correspond well with similar calculations carried out for other countries. suggesting that unemployment as a percentage of the total labour force was about 1.5-3 times lower than that among insured workers.     

Poverty and unemployment in India: An analysis of recent evidence

This paper examines the association between poverty and unemployment using the data collected by the Indian National Sample Survey from October 1972 to September 1973. Data is analyzed for two states of India: Gujarat and Maharshtra. Contrary to the widely accepted view, supported even in the ILO reports, that the poor are too poor to remain unemployed, this paper highlights a clear association between unemployment and poverty (as measured by the per capita expenditure of households). Poverty is, however, more widespread than unemployment.     

The relative importance of some causes of unemployment: The case of West Germany

Zusammenfassung Die relative Bedeutung einiger Ursachen der Arbeitslosigkeit. Der Fall Bundesrepublik Deutschland. - Der Aufsatz untersucht verschiedene Ursachen der Arbeitslosigkeit (aggregierte Nachfrage, Faktorkosten, strukturelle Ver?nderungen und institutionelle Faktoren) in Westdeutschland zwischen 1973 und 1983. Es werden Gleichungen für die Zug?nge und Abg?nge in der Arbeitslosenstatistik nach M?nnern und Frauen getrennt gesch?tzt. Dann werden die Ergebnisse für Simulationen der aktuellen und station?ren Arbeitslosenrate benutzt. Es zeigt sich, da\ Angebotsschocks verbunden mit Lohnrigidit?t und Mangel an ausl?ndischer Nachfrage die Ursachen eines gro\en Teils der Arbeitslosigkeit sind. Der Strukturwandel ist ein weniger bedeutender Faktor, und die ⋯natürliche” Arbeitslosenrate ist für beide Gruppen im letzten Jahrzehnt angestiegen.

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Résumé L’importance relative de quelques causes du ch?mage: le cas de l’Allemagne de l’Ouest. - Dans ce papier l’auteur analyse quelques types de causes du ch?mage (demande totale, co?ts des facteurs, changements structurels, facteurs institutionnels) pour la RFA entre 1973 et 1983. Elle estime des équations pour les flux dans et hors du ch?mage pour des hommes et femmes séparément. Puis elle applique les résultats pour simuler le niveau actuel et le taux stationnaire du ch?mage. Elle démontre que les chocs d’offre accompagnés par la rigidité salariale et la déficience de la demande étrangère sont à la source d’une grande proportion du ch?mage. Des changements structurels sont un facteur mineur, et le taux naturel a accr? pour les deux groupes pendant la décade dernière.

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Resumen La importancia relativa de algunas causas de desempleo: el caso de Alemania Occidental. - En este trabajo se analizan varias causas de desempleo (demanda agregada, costo de factores, cambios estructurales y factores institucionales) en Alemania Occidental entre 1973 y 1983. Se estiman ecuaciones para la entrada y la salida de la situación de desempleo por separado para hombres y mujeres. Los resultados son utilizados para simular el nivel actual de desempleo y la tasa estacionaria de desempleo. Se demuestra que shocks de oferta junto con rigidez salarial y una deficiente demanda agregada extranjera son responsables de una gran parte del desempleo. Cambios estructurales son sóolo un factor menor; la tasa natural de desempleo ha aumentado para ambos sexos en la úultima década.

     

Unanticipated money growth,output and unemployment in West Germany, 1964—1981

Zusammenfassung Unerwartete Erh?hung der Geldmenge sowie Produktion und Arbeitslosigkeit in Westdeutschland von 1964 bis 1981. — Dieser Aufsatz testet die Hypothese von der Wirkungslosigkeit politischer MaΒnahmen von Lucas-Sargent-Barro, wobei ein Vierteljahresmodell der westdeutschen Wirtschaft mit vier Gleichungen benutzt wird, die den Zeitraum 1964-1981 abdecken. Die erste Gleichung dient dazu, rationale Prognosen der Geldmengenexpansion abzuleiten; die Sch?tzfehler ergeben Sch?tzungen für die unerwartete Geldmengenerh?hung. Die Auswirkungen von erwartetem und nicht erwartetem Wachstum der Geldmenge auf “reale” Gr?Βen — BIP, Index der Industrieproduktion und Arbeitslosigkeit — werden untersucht. Das benutzte Sch?tzverfahren liefert konsistente und effiziente Sch?tzungen. Die Ergebnisse weisen deutlich auf die Existenz rationaler Erwartungen und struktureller Neutralit?t hin, d.h., nur die unerwartete Expansion der Geldmenge hat reale Wirkungen.

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Résumé Croissance inanticipée de la masse monétaire, production et chómage en Allemagne de l’Ouest 1964-1981. — Cet article examine l’évidence empirique de la ?proposition d’inefficacité politique? de Lucas-Sargent-Barro en appliquant un modèle trimestriel de quatre-équations pour l’Allemagne de l’Ouest de la période 1964-1981. La première équation est utilisée pour obtenir des estimations des prévisions rationnelles de la croissance monétaire; les erreurs de la fonction donnent des estimations de la croissance inanticipée de la masse monétaire. L’auteur analyse les effets de la croissance anticipée et inanticipée en masse monétaire sur les variables ?réelles?, c’est-á-dire, sur le PIB, l’indice de la production industrielle et le chómage. Il obtient des estimations consistantes et efficientes. Les résultats donnent une évidence forte pour des expectatives rationnelles et la ?neutralité structurelle?, c’est-á-dire, seule la croissance inanticipée en masse monétaire a des effets réels.

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Resumen Crecimiento monetario no anticipado, producción y desempleo en Alemania Occidental 1964-1981. — Este articulo examina la evidencia empfrica de la ?proposición de politica inefectiva? de Lucas-Sargent-Barro usando un modelo trimestral de cuatro ecuaciones de la economia de Alemania Occidental (cubriendo el periodo 1964-1981). La primera ecuación es utilizada para derivar estimaciones de pron?sticos racionales de crecimiento monetario; sus errores suministran estimaciones del crecimiento monetario no anticipado. El articulo examina el impacto del crecimiento monetario anticipado y no anticipado sobre las variables ?reaies? — Producto Bruto Interno, indice de producción industrial y desempleo. Se obtienen estimaciones consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados suministran una fuerte evidencia tanto para expectativas racionales como para ?neutralidad estructural? (p.ej., solo el crecimiento monetario no anticipado tiene efectos reales).

     

Historical perspective of migration and urbanisation in Whittlesea,Ciskei

This article sets out to explore the role of historical events and politics in the migration and urbanisation of the Whittlesea subregion. The evolution of the independent national state of Ciskei from a Native reserve, bantustan and homeland is analysed. The development potential of the subregion is directly related to the subregion's peripheral location in the national spatial economy and to the regional and urban development of South Africa. The migration and urbanisation process is analysed from the first settlement by the Moravian Mission at Shiloh in 1828 to the present,Whittlesea offers focused settlement opportunities as the first base in a stepwise migration process to the metropolitan core areas. Whittlesea is spatially fragmented owing to different settlement actions, while the isolated areas are functioning independently. Migration from the subregion could be facilitated to influence an equilibrating urbanisation process at the regional and national levels.     

The determinants of internal migration in West Germany, 1967

Summary and Conclusion We initially set ourselves the task of explaining the geographical movement of labor in West Germany in 1967. In so doing we have investigated two alternative models; the standard model based on net advantages and the job opportunity model. Our results clearly support the thesis that job opportunities playa substantial role in the geographical distribution of labor in West Germany. Of the two measures of job opportunity the vacancy rate seems to be preferable, at least, in labor scarce economics. The standard distance variable performs quite well, perhaps unexpectedly well in light of the relatively small distances involved. This has led us to speculate that distance may be closely related to the difficulty with whichm potential movers acquire labor market information. Finally, wage differences seem not to explain the locational patterns of movers. However, the lack of variation in wages among the regions that we studied causes us to consider this result highly tentative and subject to further study.     

Race and social organization: An economic perspective

Conclusion Improvements in the economic, political, and social status of Blacks are joint effects. Improvement in one is unlikely without concommitant improvements in the others; this is a multiedge sword.Success in any of the areas is correlated with improvement in the others—synergism. On the other hand, failure to realize the interdependencies makes success or improvement in any of the areas unlikely.     

Employment and growth in South Africa: An agricultural perspective

South African agriculture is analysed with respect to labour‐related structural trends, the impact of a change in agricultural production on production in certain selected Individual sectors and its relative potential with regard to direct and indirect industry multipliers. The paper concludes with some policy aspects that stem from the different analyses.     

产业结构调整视角下的德国崛起

德国经济几次兴衰,产业结构的调整是其经济复兴的一大重点,值得特别关注。本文对德国第二次工业革命前后及二战后两个时期的产业结构调整状况进行描述性分析,探讨各产业部门发生结构变化的主要影响因素,总结出德国产业结构调整的经验。在此基础上结合中国国情,说明其对我国现阶段产业结构优化的启示。     

Overpopulation and unemployment in Zimbabwe

The size of Zimbabwe's African population has grown dramatically over the past 50 years, with 5.7 children on average being born per woman. The following factors are responsible for the rapid population growth in Zimbabwe: the country's economic prosperity during the period of the Central African Federation from 1953 to 1963, and its successful food policy before and after independence; the success of the health system, also in both periods; and the fact that women have not been incorporated into the economy as wage-earners. A brief historical overview is presented, followed by sections on the food policy and health system, reasons for the persistence of large families, and the relationship between wage-earning by women and the birth rate. The author also describes some of the problems caused by overpopulation. Engaging more women in regular wage-earning employment is the key to controlling the birth rate in Zimbabwe. Current government policies encouraging female employment in government services and the economy in general, along with the expansion of contraceptive services, could influence female fertility over the long term.     

Corporate social responsibility and development: An anthropological perspective

Some analysts suggest that corporate-driven social responsibility initiatives offer a new, and potentially bright, prospect of addressing global poverty and underdevelopment effectively. There is a growing academic literature that examines this proposition critically, often rehearsing debates about the successes and failures of the international development programmes of the second half of the 20th century. From an anthropological perspective, however, the most useful question to ask is not whether corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives will succeed in fulfilling the promises made by their proponents but rather what the implications and consequences –often unintended – might be of expecting business corporations to become significant engines of development. This article examines current debates about CSR, and the emerging CSR discourse and apparatus, as a prelude to asking ‘What does CSR do?’.     

An econometric study on the relationship between unemployment and vacancies in the United Kingdom

Zusammenfassung Eine ?konometrische Studie über die Beziehung zwischen Arbeitslosigkeit und offenen Stellen im Vereinigten K?nigreich. — Dieser Aufsatz soll zeigen, da\ die stabile Beziehung zwischen echter Arbeitslosigkeit und echten offenen Stellen seit 1966 unterbrochen ist. Au\erdem sollen die Faktoren untersucht werden, die die Beziehung zwischen echter Arbeitslosigkeit und echten offenen Stellen bestimmen, wobei einerseits ein ?konometrisches Modell, das auf nichtbeobachtbare Variable besonders eingeht, und andererseits eine neoklassische Theorie der überschu\nachfrage herangezogen wird. Die allgemeine Hypothese in diesem Artikel lautet, da\ sowohl die echte als auch die registrierte oder gemessene H?he der Arbeitslosigkeit infolge verschiedener Gesetze und/oder des Rückgangs der wirtschaftlichen Aktivit?t angestiegen ist. Anschlie\end werden zwei weitere Modelle konstruiert, um die Rolle der Nachfrage- und Angebotsfaktoren zu analysieren.

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Résumé Une étude économétrique sur la relation entre le ch?mage et les vacances en Royaume-Uni. — Le but de cet article est de démontrer que la relation stable entre le vrai ch?mage et les vrais vacances a croulé depuis 1966 et d’analyser les facteurs qui déterminent les relations entre le vrai ch?mage et les vrais vacances en appliquant séparément des modèles économétriques avec des variables inobservables et une théorie néoclassique de la demande d’excès. Notre hypothèse générale est que le montant du vrai ch?mage et le montant du ch?mage régistré ou mesuré augmentaient comme conséquence de la législation gouvernementale et/ou de la baisse de l’activité économique. Finalement, l’auteur construit deux modèles de plus pour analyser le r?le des facteurs de demande et d’offre.

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Resumen Un estudio econométrico sobre la relación entre empleo y vacantes en el Reino Unido. — Los objetivos de este artículo son mostrar que la relación estable entre desempleo verdadero y vacantes verdaderas se ha quebrado a partir de 1966 y también analizar los factores subyacentes a las relaciones de desempleo verdadero y vacantes verdaderas separadamente, usando modelos econométricos con variables no observables y una teoría neoclásica de exceso de demanda. Nuestra hipótesis general es que tanto la cantidad verdadera de desempleo y el desempleo registrado o medido creció como consecuencia de la legislación gubernamental y/o la declinación en la actividad económica. Finalmente, formulamos dos modelos adicionales para analizar el rol de factores de demanda y oferta.

     

Economic crises and unemployment in Russia

This article considers changes in the number of unemployed individuals in conjunction with the dynamics of the production volume in Russia in 1991–2015. An assessment has been given for the quantitative relationship between crisis declines in production and the number of unemployed individuals. Long-term trends determining the dynamics of unemployment under the effect of direct factors of economic growth (labor resources, fixed capital, and scientific and technical progress) have been analyzed.