新冠肺炎疫情对我国粮食安全的影响分析及稳定产量的建议

稳定粮食安全根基是应对各类黑天鹅、灰犀牛事件的有力保障。疫情期间,充足的粮食供给再次发挥了安天下、稳民心的作用。从目前调查的情况来看,疫情对粮食生产经营的影响是暂时的、局部的、有限的,疫情持续也带来农资价格上涨、物资到位迟缓等问题。但种粮效益低、农业气象偏差、传统病虫害与输入性虫害叠加、国际经贸形势日趋复杂等挑战交织,是确保全年粮食产量、供应稳定的主要挑战。要高度重视抗疫战线拉长带来的负面影响,积极疏通农资供应渠道、有序组织返田返工,更要稳住政策支持,完善设施装备配套,强化技术支撑,做好防灾减灾。     

Framing consumer food demand responses in a viral pandemic

In this paper I explore several issues related to how the COVID-19 pandemic might impact consumer demand for food. These impacts relate to the structure of preferences in the context of a pandemic, income and time constraints, and price effects. Discussion includes accounting for differential impacts of COVID-19 on demand for food across sociodemographic characteristics, and several high-level issues and observations related to where and how consumers shop and what they buy. My own thinking leads me to conclude that demand-side factors will account for most of the changes we see in retail food market. These demand-side effects will be dominated by income effects, the opportunity cost of time, and longer planning horizons on the part of consumers.     

从全球视角分析在新冠肺炎疫情下如何保障食物和营养安全

流行性传染病的爆发往往伴随着食物与营养安全的风险。本文首先从全球视角回顾流行性传染病爆发对食物与营养安全的经验与教训,其次分析新冠肺炎疫情对中国食物和营养安全的潜在冲击,最后对如何在防范新冠肺炎疫情下保障中国和全球居民的食物和营养安全提出政策建议。本文分析指出,短期内中国食物与营养相对安全,但需要警惕疫情对中长期食物安全的影响。鉴于新冠肺炎疫情传播呈现全球化趋势,为防范全球食物和营养安全的系统性风险,需要加强全球合作,采取包括保障食物供应链畅通、保持贸易开放、减少对农业生产的冲击及关注贫困人口等综合应对措施。     

POLICY-INDUCED CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS AND STRATEGIC INTERACTION IN PROCESSED FOOD MARKETS

Attempts to curtail surplus agricultural production may result in excess capacity for food processors. This paper considers the impact of potential capacity constraints for different specifications of duopoly behaviour. If one firm's capacity is constrained, rents are shifted to the other under quantity competition, while both benefit under price competition. If both firms face capacity constraints, each benefits whatever the nature of competition. Consequently, food processing firms may benefit from cut-backs in agricultural production or quantitative trade restrictions, depending on the nature of strategic interaction, though consumers always lose.     

Food supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper provides an early assessment of the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for food supply chains and supply chain resilience. The effects of demand-side shocks on food supply chains are discussed, including consumer panic buying behaviors with respect to key items, and the sudden change in consumption patterns away from the food service sector to meals prepared and consumed at home. Potential supply-side disruptions to food supply chains are assessed, including labor shortages, disruptions to transportation networks, and “thickening” of the Canada–U.S. border with respect to the movement of goods. Finally, the paper considers whether the COVID-19 pandemic will have longer-lasting effects on the nature of food supply chains, including the growth of the online grocery delivery sector, and the extent to which consumers will prioritize “local” food supply chains.     

Payoffs from research and development along the Australian food value chain: a general equilibrium analysis

The payoffs and distribution of payoffs from research and development (R&D) along the food value chain depend on many interacting economic factors. To quantify these, we have developed a general equilibrium model of the Australian economy with detailed farming, processing and marketing information. We use the model to assess potential payoffs and distributions from various R&D scenarios that lead to demand expansion and productivity improvement. We find that productivity improvement caused by R&D is unambiguously beneficial to the whole economy while the benefits of export or domestic market demand expansion mainly accrue to the primary producers and processing industry, when the economy is at full employment. Also, productivity improvement from R&D on‐farm may benefit processors while improvements postfarm may benefit farmers.     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击粮食安全:趋势、影响与应对

新冠肺炎疫情在全球加速扩散蔓延,引发全球粮食市场异常波动以及对中国粮食安全的担忧。疫情对后期全球粮食生产与贸易的影响将进一步加大,全球粮食市场波动有可能进一步升级。随着全球金融市场充分释放流动性,国际投机资本若炒作农产品市场,爆发类似2008年粮食危机的风险将越来越高。分析表明,中国粮食安全保障体系总体上可从容应对全球粮食市场波动升级的挑战,但大豆等农产品进口需防控国际市场波动风险。本文认为,要高度重视全球粮食市场波动的可能风险和挑战,必须加强监测、及早谋划,系统应对、综合施策。包括:有效管控输入性不稳定预期对国内粮食市场的干扰和冲击;进一步强化粮食生产能力建设;构建国家粮食安全保障风险治理体系;完善重要农产品储备体系;强化农产品全球供应链管理;加强国际粮食安全、贸易和投资政策协调。     

The COVID-19 pandemic and agriculture: Short- and long-run implications for international trade relations

The COVID-19 pandemic has put unprecedented strain on food supply chains. Given the ever-increasing degree of globalization, those supply chains very often stretch across international borders. In the short run, countries have largely been working to keep those supply chains intact and operating efficiently so that panic buying is cooled and shifts in consumption habits arising from personal isolation can be accommodated. Once the crisis has passed, based on what has been learned regarding the international food system's resilience, governments may wish to strengthen institutions that govern international trade. On the other hand, based on their COVID-19 experience, governments may feel that they are too dependent on foreign sources of supply and may wish to reverse the impacts of globalization on their food systems. As a result, they may become increasingly isolationist, eschewing international cooperation. Which of these opposing forces will prevail may depend on the paths economies follow after the disequilibrium precipitated by the pandemic.     

R&D and Innovation in Food Processing Firms in Transition Countries

We examine the implications of the liberalised economic conditions associated with the economic transformations in the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) for R&D and innovation in the food processing sector. We use a dataset derived from the World Bank's Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Surveys (BEEPS) database to examine the relationships between R&D/innovation activities in food processing firms in transition countries and (i) privatisation, (ii) foreign direct investment, (iii) trade activities, (iv) market competition pressure, and (v) economies of scale. The empirical analysis is implemented through: (i) a double‐hurdle model for R&D participation and expenditures, and (ii) a bivariate probit model for product and process innovation. We find that these economic transformations generally promote R&D/innovation activities in the food processing sector. Our results suggest that broadened and deepened economic liberalisation policies would improve the innovation performance of the food processing sector in transition countries, and would enhance competitiveness in domestic and foreign markets. They also indicate that innovation policies may need to be tailored to market and industrial characteristics of different transition regions.     

新冠肺炎疫情对全球食物安全的影响及对策

当前,新冠肺炎疫情已在全球扩散,许多本就因为冲突、自然灾害或气候变化而深陷食物不安全的国家和地区的防疫形势也日益严峻。虽然目前全球食物供给总体充足,食物价格稳定,但疫情的快速蔓延将给全球食物安全带来威胁。由于隔离和边境关闭,市场、供应链和贸易受到波及,全球食物的供给受到影响。食物流通渠道可能因运输中断和更加严格的检疫措施而受阻,运输成本和贸易成本增加、效率降低。一些国家为保障国内食物供应而采取限制出口的行为,将影响依赖于粮食进口的国家进口粮食,也不利于依赖于出口初级农产品的低收入发展中国家出口农产品。封锁措施带来的经济影响使居民收入和购买力下降,居民获得充足的营养食物变得更加困难。食物安全不再是一个区域性问题,而是一个需要共同应对的全球性问题,各国应当共同努力,加强合作和全球治理,对最弱势群体采取迅速的保护和援助措施。既要确保国内食物供应链的正常运行,同时,应该保持贸易开放,并利用和创新电子商务保障食物供应,保障全球粮食安全。     

Vertical coordination,access to capital,and producer loyalty in the Polish dairy sector

Numerous studies have shown that processing and retail industries have actively assisted farmers in joining the modern food marketing systems. Data from the Polish dairy sector show that assistance is provided not only for the traditional‐channel farmers wishing to modernize, but also for farmers already included in the modern marketing channel. Two explanations can be provided to account for this phenomenon. One, even modern‐channel farmers may lack sufficient funds to maintain required quality/quantity on their own. Two, it may be the case that even after undertaking necessary adjustments, modern‐channel farmers are more likely to quit their relationship with a processor and turn elsewhere, in which case assistance is provided to prevent them from defecting. Using farm‐level data, we investigate the impact of supply chain modernization on farmers’ access to credit and their loyalty toward processors. Our results do not provide compelling evidence to support either hypothesis, suggesting at most a partial explanation for the existence of vertical linkages between processors and modern‐channel farmers in Poland.     

Productivity Growth and Environmental Regulation in Mexican and U.S. Food Manufacturing

Many argued during the NAFTA debate that trade liberalization would favor Mexican over U.S. food processors, especially because of lax environmental laws south of the border. We find through an examination of profit functions that productivity growth in Mexico has outstripped that in the United States, suggesting free trade indeed will benefit Mexican suppliers. U.S. pollution regulations have had no impact on the profitability or productivity of U.S. food manufacturing. In contrast, Mexico's swiftly rising environmental standards have enhanced food processors' productivity growth, corroborating the Porter hypothesis. Pollution law, therefore, has favored Mexican over U.S. food processing, but for reasons few had anticipated.     

Food security and Canada's agricultural system challenged by COVID-19

The effect of COVID-19 on Canadian food security is examined from two different perspectives. COVID-19 creates a unique “income shock” that is expected to increase the prevalence of household food insecurity. This food insecurity can be measured by utilizing the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). More fundamentally, COVID-19 heightens household concern about the capacity of the Canadian food system to ensure food availability. Despite surges in demand and supply chain disruptions, we currently do not observe broad, rapid appreciation in food prices. This suggests that there is an adequate supply of food for the near term. There is less certainty over intermediate and longer time periods because so many factors are in flux, particularly the rate of increases in sicknesses and deaths across the country and globally. Data on these health factors and elements of the food supply chain are needed to predict beyond a short time frame. In this regard, we discuss three ongoing considerations—ease of capital flows, international exchange, and maintaining transportation—that will help ensure food availability in the longer run.     

Cost Structure and Vertical Integration between Farming and Processing

In several food‐producing sectors, we observe vertical integration between the farming and processing stages. The salmon industry, which has motivated this paper, has seen a rise in large vertically integrated companies over the last decade, with direct ownership of production activities including hatcheries, fish processing and exporting. Both the farming and processing stages have become more capital intensive, which has led to a steeper U‐shaped average cost (AC) curve. In this paper we present a theoretical link between this technological shift and vertical integration: in a repeated game model of relational contracting, we show that when the AC curve is sufficiently steep, then processors and farmers are more likely to vertically integrate. The reason is that steep AC curves make it costly to deviate from the optimal production scale, which in turn makes processors more vulnerable to hold‐up and opportunistic behaviours from its suppliers.     

Slotting Allowances as a Facilitating Practice by Food Processors in Wholesale Grocery Markets: Profitability and Welfare Effects

Slotting allowances, which are lump-sum transfers paid by food manufacturers to grocery retailers in return for various retail concessions, are becoming increasingly common in wholesale grocery markets. This article extends the literature on slotting allowances by considering two features that previously have been ignored: the role of food processors in determining these pricing arrangements, and the effect of slotting allowances on the size and distribution of economic surplus. Slotting allowances motivated by food processors increase procurement quantities and farm prices, and this raises farm surplus, increases total producer surplus, and improves consumer welfare in the food system.     

Pandemic stricken cities on lockdown. Where are our planning and design professionals [now,then and into the future]?

Chinese cities have been placed upon lockdown in early 2020 in an attempt to contain the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), as increasingly huge demands are being placed upon Chinese and international health professionals to address this pandemic. Surprisingly, planning and design professionals are absent in the discourses about existing and post−COVID-19 strategies and actions even though previous pandemics historically revealed major impacts on the urban fabric from social and economic perspectives. This paper is a call for action for international architectural and urban organisations to include pandemics and similar in their disaster management strategies. This need is very evident in their need to better design creative and relevant protocols in partnership with health discipine organisations, and so that their applied deployment in pandemic stricken cities can be effected integrated seamlessly within normal city environment planning activities and also in incident situations like containing the current COVID-19 pandemic.     

Economic Incentives for Firms to Implement Enhanced Food Safety Controls: Case of the Canadian Red Meat and Poultry Processing Sector

This study assesses quantitatively the economic incentives for firms to adopt food safety controls and the potential impact of a number of firm- and market-specific characteristics on this behavior, focusing on the red meat and poultry processing sector in Canada. The results suggest that market-based (private) incentives have a greater impact on the food safety responsiveness of firms in this sector than government regulatory actions. This creates challenges for regulators in defining policy instruments that promote greater levels of food safety control in food processing sectors rather than constraining firms from taking initiatives that exceed regulatory requirements.     

Labor issues and COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted Canada and several other countries to impose an economic shutdown to prevent a deadly public health crisis from becoming much deadlier. In the agriculture and food sector, several hundred thousand restaurant workers have lost their jobs. The rise in unemployment, the closing of restaurants and schools, and social distancing have triggered demand reductions for certain commodities and foods and demand increases for others, bringing along changes in demand for inputs including labor. Canadian employers of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) are facing delays and additional constraints in recruiting, but so have US and European employers of TFWs. Rising food security concerns are making protectionist trade policies popular. Domestic and foreign firms may export less and do more foreign direct investment, inducing trade in jobs.     

The impact of COVID-19 on food retail and food service in Canada: Preliminary assessment

COVID-19 has imposed a series of unique challenges on the food retail and food service sectors in Canada. Almost overnight, the roughly 30% of the food dollar that Canadians have been spending on food away from home has shifted to retail.     

2020年农民增收:新冠肺炎疫情的影响与应对建议

新冠肺炎疫情将从多个渠道、多重方式对今年农民增收带来严重冲击,其中对工资性收入影响尤为突出。疫情在全球加速扩散,对全球经济贸易增长冲击严重,通过全球供应链影响我国产业经营和农民就业,今年后期农民持续增收挑战巨大。本文认为必须统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展两线作战;加快中小企业复工复产,实施文化旅游产业振兴,加大创新创业支持,恢复和稳定农民就业增收;创新农产品产销对接,实施产业提升工程,提升风险治理能力,稳住和促进农业经营增收;加强国际疫情研判,抓紧做好防范应对,稳住农民增收基础。要对标问题、攻坚克难、系统发力,通过一揽子政策助力农民持续增收,力争如期实现全面建成小康社会和全面打赢脱贫攻坚战目标。