Long‐Run Patterns of Labour Market Polarization: Evidence from German Micro Data

The past four decades have witnessed dramatic changes in the structure of employment. In particular, the rapid increase in computational power has led to large‐scale reductions in employment in jobs that can be described as intensive in routine tasks. These jobs have been shown to be concentrated in middle‐skill occupations. A large literature on labour market polarization characterizes and measures these processes at an aggregate level. However, to date, there is little information regarding the individual worker adjustment processes related to routine‐biased technological change. Using an administrative panel dataset for Germany, we follow workers over an extended period of time and provide evidence of both the short‐term adjustment process and medium‐run effects of routine task‐intensive job loss at an individual level. We initially demonstrate a marked, and steady, shift in employment away from routine, middle‐skill, occupations. In subsequent analysis, we demonstrate how exposure to jobs with higher routine task content is associated with a reduced likelihood of being in employment in both the short term (after one year) and medium term (five years). This employment penalty to routineness of work has increased over the past four decades. More generally, we demonstrate that routine task work is associated with reduced job stability and more likelihood of experiencing periods of unemployment. However, these negative effects of routine work appear to be concentrated in increased employment to employment, and employment to unemployment transitions rather than longer periods of unemployment.     

Flexibilization at the Core to Reduce Labour Market Dualism: Evidence from the Spanish Case

Institutionalist explanations of the high non‐standard employment rate in the Spanish labour market have pointed to the relevance of flexibilization at the margin, that is, the deregulation of non‐standard jobs. Using Spanish social security micro data, we find evidence that the liberalization reforms of 2010 and 2012 had flexibilization at their core, that is, greater instability due to open‐ended and full‐time contracts (erosion of employment protection) and a rise in turnover among periphery workers, increasing the segregation gap. We conclude that there is a high level of deregulation and simultaneous dualization due to the combination of flexibilization at the margin (until 2008) and the core (2010–2012).     

‘It was doing my head in’: Low-paid multiple employment and zero hours work

This article explores the lived experiences and working time complexities of low-paid workers in legitimate multiple employment and zero hours work. Based on detailed qualitative research, these workers have 2, 3, 4, 5 and even 7 different jobs out of necessity due to low-pay, unpredictable working hours and employment precarity. The research reveals that workers need to be available for (potential) work at any point but may not actually be offered any hours, which we argue constitutes unremunerated labour time. The findings highlight a densification of working time with zero hours work as employers maximize productive effort into specifically numbered, demarcated and minimized working hours, which tightens the porosity of labour. There is a dual fragmentation and individualization of employment, as these workers traverse multiple, expansive, complex and dynamic temporalities of work. This study identifies new economic and temporal indeterminacies of labour, which fundamentally transform the employment relationship and wage-effort bargain.     

What did unions do for union workers during the COVID-19 pandemic?

This research examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on labour market outcomes of union workers, based on nationally representative data. I employ the difference-in-difference estimation to identify the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the employment, labour earnings and other labour market outcomes of union workers, relative to non-union workers. I find that, compared to non-union workers, union workers experienced greater job security, and the pre-pandemic union wage premium remained largely unchanged during the pandemic. There exists a large heterogeneity in the union effect on employment and real wages by worker characteristic. I also find that union workers, compared to non-union workers, were less likely to work remotely but more likely to receive pay for hours not worked due to COVID-19. The results suggest that unions provided workers with employment stability and an economic buffer during the pandemic-led recession.     

Changes in the Relative Economic Performance of Immigrants to Great Britain and the United States, 1980–2000

We compare the relative labour market performance of immigrants in the USA and in Britain over the period 1980–2000, when the stocks of immigrants were rising in both countries alongside differential shifts in demand and changes to labour market institutions. We find that the average relative employment prospects of immigrants are generally better in the USA than in Britain, particularly for non‐white immigrants, while the average relative wage prospects for immigrants are generally better in Britain, particularly for men. Over time, relative wage and employment prospects for immigrants to the USA appear to have deteriorated, particularly among women, in a way that is not as apparent in Britain.     

The Changing Spatial Relationship Between Residences and Worksites in the New York Metropolitan Region: Implications for Public Policy

In recent decades, most new metropolitan population and job growth has occurred in the suburbs. Conventional wisdom suggests that because of the selective nature of suburban labor market development, most metropolitan workers currently live further from their jobs. Distance, in turn, fragments urban labor markets and creates physical and informational barriers to employment.
This article examines the selective pattern of central city-suburban labor market development within the New York Metropolitan Region between 1960 and 1975 and analyzes the extent to which worker residences have adapted to spatial shifts in employment.     

Off the Waterfront: The Long‐Run Impact of Technological Change on Dockworkers

We investigate how individual workers and local labour markets adjust over a long time period to a discrete and plausibly exogenous technological shock, namely the introduction of containerization in the UK port industry. This technology, which was introduced rapidly between the mid‐1960s and the late‐1970s, had dramatic consequences for specific occupations within the port industry. Using longitudinal micro‐census data, we follow dockworkers over a 40‐year period and examine the long‐run consequences of containerization for patterns of employment, migration and mortality. The results show that the job guarantees negotiated by the unions protected dockworkers' employment until the guarantees were removed in 1989. A matched comparison of workers in comparable unskilled occupations reveals that, even after job guarantees were removed, dockworkers did not fare worse than the comparison group in terms of their labour market outcomes. Our results suggest that job guarantees provided a safety net which reduced the cost to workers of sudden technological change.     

Labour market impacts of occupational licensing and delicensing: New evidence from China

We examined the recent occupational regulation changes in China and their labour market impacts. Using data from the China Labor-Force Dynamic Survey from 2014 to 2018, we found an earning premium of approximately 10 per cent, as well as more employment-based benefits, for those with an occupational license compared to those without one. Licensed workers reported higher skill-job task match than unlicensed workers. Our data cover the period of occupational regulation reform in China, when 70 per cent of occupations previously licensed or certified were deregulated. Over this period, the licensing status remained associated with positive earning and employment benefits premiums, and better skill-job task match at the labour market level. However, delicensing led to a distributional shift in the earning dispersion, especially at the bottom of the earning distribution; earning premiums rose sharply for the 10th to 30th percentiles. Workers directly affected by the licensing reform reported a significant decrease in employment benefits and in subjective job quality measures (i.e. skill-job task match and voice at work) after delicensing, relative to never-licensed workers. We suggest that non-wage compensation is lost in the short term because the signal of competency is no longer valued by employers after delicensing.     

The Effects of Working Time, Segmentation and Labour Market Mobility on Wages and Pensions in Ireland

Most research on pay and benefit differences between full– and part–time work focuses on characteristics of part–time workers and part–time jobs. However, part–time jobs are more open to labour market 'outsiders', and such labour market mobility can influence wages. We analyse the effects of working time, gender, segmentation and mobility on wages and pension benefits in Ireland. Both segmentation and mobility influence wages directly, and controlling for segmentation in a wage model eliminates the negative effect of part–time working. The wage effects of labour market mobility differ by gender and labour market segment. Pension entitlement is strongly influenced by gender, working time, labour market segment and mobility.     

Labour Adjustment Implications of Service Offshoring: Evidence from Canada

About one‐fifth of Canadian employees are in jobs that are vulnerable to service offshoring. Despite this figure, both theory and our empirical evidence (based on a variety of methodologies and datasets) suggest that the offshoring of business services is not likely to lead to large adverse employment effects. We also conclude that existing active labour market adjustment policies (e.g. increased labour market information, job search, mobility and training) developed for other adjustment pressures such as technological change and free‐trade in goods are just as appropriate (perhaps even more so) to deal with the consequences of service offshoring.     

Temporary Help Work: Earnings,Wages, and Multiple Job Holding*

Temporary help services (THS) employment has been growing in size, particularly among disadvantaged workers. An extended policy debate focuses on the low earnings, limited benefits, and insecurity that such jobs appear to provide. We investigate the earnings and wage differentials observed between THS and other jobs in a sample of disadvantaged workers. We find lower quarterly earnings at THS jobs but a $1 per hour wage premium. We reconcile these findings in terms of the shorter duration and lower hours worked at THS jobs. We interpret the premium as a compensating wage differential.     

Internationalization and the Spaces of Temporary Labour: The Global Assembly of a Local Workforce

An increasing number of low‐status consumer service jobs in the UK are undertaken by economic migrants, who are often recruited through the aegis of employment agencies. This article explores the use of migrant agency workers by a London hotel and a hospital, looking at the ways in which such a labour force is recruited and assembled in parts of the service sector in Greater London. It argues that even in the most locally‐based of service‐sector jobs, typically involving face to face interactions, new sets of transnational connections are producing a globalized labour force.     

Training and Labour Market Flexibility: Is There a Trade-off?

This paper explores the nexus between work-related training and labour market 'flexibility' (which we proxy by contract type, part-time employment and lack of union coverage), using the first five waves of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) conducted over the period 1991–5. Our results show that workers on short-term employment contracts, who are working part-time or are not covered by a union collective agreement, are significantly less likely to be involved in any work-related training to improve or increase their skills. These findings suggest that there is a trade-off between expanding the more marginal forms of employment and expanding the proportion of the work-force getting work-related training.     

Labour Market Governance and the Creation of Outsiders

Using case‐study data, the article examines the contention that protective labour market policies and trade union action are responsible for growing divisions between labour market ‘insiders and outsiders’. Case studies are reported on developments in collective bargaining in the hospitals and engineering sectors from seven western and central European countries. The article finds that managerial strategies, and interactions between management and unions, have to be considered to give a full account of the growth of precarious employment.     

The Prevalence and Effects of Occupational Licensing

Our study provides the first national analysis of the labour market implications of workers who are licensed by any agency of the government in the USA. Using a specially designed Gallup survey of a nationally representative sample of Americans, we provide an analysis of the influence of this form of occupational regulation. We find that 29 per cent of the workforce is required to hold a licence, which is a higher percentage than that found in other studies that rely on state‐level occupational licensing data or single states. Workers who have higher levels of education are more likely to work in jobs that require a licence. Union workers and government employees are more likely to have a licence requirement than are non‐union or private sector employees. Our multivariate estimates suggest that licensing has about the same quantitative impact on wages as do unions — that is about 15 per cent — and that being both licensed and in a union can increase wages by more than 24 per cent. However, unlike unions which reduce variance in wages, licensing does not significantly reduce wage dispersion for individuals in licensed jobs.     

South Korea's Automotive Labour Regime,Hyundai Motors’ Global Production Network and Trade‐Based Integration with the European Union

This article explores the interrelationship between global production networks (GPNs) and free trade agreements (FTAs) in the South Korean auto industry and its employment relations. It focuses on the production network of the Hyundai Motor Group (HMG) — the third biggest automobile manufacturer in the world — and the FTA between the EU and South Korea. This was the first of the EU's ‘new generation’ FTAs, which among other things contained provisions designed to protect and promote labour standards. The article's argument is twofold. First, that HMG's production network and Korea's political economy (of which HMG is a crucial part) limited the possibilities for the FTA's labour provisions to take effect. Second, that the commercial provisions in this same FTA simultaneously eroded HMG's domestic market and corporate profitability, leading to adverse consequences for auto workers in the more insecure and low‐paid jobs. In making this argument, the article advances a multi‐scalar conceptualization of the labour regime as an analytical intermediary between GPNs and FTAs. It also provides one of the first empirical studies of the EU–South Korea FTA in terms of employment relations, drawing on 105 interviews with trade unions, employer associations, automobile companies and state officials across both parties.     

Never Say Never? Uncovering the Never‐Unionized in the United States

This paper analyses individuals who never hold a unionized job and are never represented by a union ('never-unionized'). Using 21 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 data to track individuals starting at age 15 or 16, we show that by the time workers are 40 or 41 years old, one-third of them are never-unionized, and a convex never-unionization trajectory suggests that most of them will remain never-unionized. An analysis of the demographic and labour market characteristics of the never-unionized further suggests two types of never-unionized workers — those who lack opportunities for obtaining unionized jobs and those who lack the desire to obtain unionized jobs.     

Atypical Work and Employment Continuity

Atypical employment arrangements have long been criticized as offering more precarious and unstable work than regular employment. Using data from the Contingent and Alternative Employment Arrangement Supplement and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 Cohort, we determine whether workers who take such jobs rather than regular employment, or the alternative of continued job search, experience greater or lesser employment continuity. Controlling for unobserved individual heterogeneity, the advantage of regular work over atypical work and atypical work over continued joblessness dissipates.     

Online,on call: the spread of digitally organised just‐in‐time working and its implications for standard employment models

This article questions whether the dominant policy discourse, in which a normative model of standard employment is counterposed to ‘non‐standard’ or ‘atypical’ employment, enables us to capture the diversity of fluid labour markets in which work is dynamically reshaped in an interaction between different kinds of employment status and work organisation. Drawing on surveys in the UK, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands that investigate work managed via online platforms (‘crowdwork’) and associated practices, it demonstrates that crowdwork represents part of a continuum. Not only do most crowd workers combine work for online platforms with other forms of work or income generation, but also many of the ICT‐related practices associated with crowdwork are widespread across the rest of the labour market where a growing number of workers are ‘logged’. Future research should not just focus on crowdworkers as a special case but on new patterns of work organisation in the regular workforce.     

Making gigs work: digital platforms,job quality and worker motivations

Technology has driven new organisations of work and employment relationships, rendering changes that would have been unimaginable just a decade ago. The rise of digital platforms has not only enabled new forms of work activity but also transformed the way workers find new opportunities. This development, referred to as gig work, is distinct from traditional employment in that it is mediated through online platforms. While we can somewhat objectively designate traditional job characteristics as ‘good’ or ‘bad’, designating gig work itself as ‘good’ or ‘bad’ overlooks the fact that workers are inclined to evaluate the quality of their jobs according to their own individual needs, priorities, backgrounds and other circumstances—even if those jobs are objectively the same. Unlike previous scholarship on gig work, which has viewed job quality largely from a platform-focused perspective, this article takes a worker-centric approach and provides a typology of gig workers. The typology demarcates how gig work is used and indicates key attributes that differentiate how workers approach such jobs. Moreover, the typology reveals heterogeneity in gig workers’ motivations, characteristics and intentions. Consequently, platforms with ‘bad’ job quality characteristics can still offer work that some workers will see as ‘good’ and vice versa.