Determinants of food security in Southern Ethiopia at the household level

In the early 1980s, a paradigm shift occurred in the field of food security, following Amartya Sens (1981) claims that food insecurity is more of a demand concern, affecting the poor's access to food, than a supply concern, affecting availability of food at the national level. Despite the wide acceptance of Sen's thinking, many controversies including the relative importance of supply‐side versus demand‐side variables in causing and solving food insecurity have remained in academic and policy circles. This study develops a recursive household food security model within the framework of consumer demand and production theories following Singh et al. (1986) , and parses out the relative importance of supply‐side versus demand‐side variables in determining household food security in southern Ethiopia. Based on results of a test of full/reduced model and the magnitude of changes in conditional probabilities of food security, we conclude that the supply‐side variables are more powerful determinants of food security than the demand‐side variables.     

An empirical assessment of food security on First Nations in Canada

Using data generated from surveys conducted on First Nations throughout Canada, we use regression analysis to examine factors influencing food insecurity. To our knowledge, this is the first time a regression-based analysis has been conducted to examine food insecurity on First Nations in Canada. As expected, income is inversely related to the likelihood that one reports their household as experiencing food insecurity. In addition, individuals in extremely remote areas are more likely to report their household as experiencing food insecurity. Although traditional food consumption is prevalent, we do not find evidence that it is associated with reductions in the prevalence of self-reported household food insecurity. We find that gender and mental health are associated with perceived household food insecurity. Although this study is novel, for reasons and limitations detailed in the paper, it should be viewed as an initial effort to establish potential relationships that underscore one of the most important issues facing Canada: the high prevalence of food insecurity in First Nations communities.     

Economic thoughts on COVID-19 for Canadian food processors

In this paper, I explore the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Canadian food processors. First, COVID-19 may have an impact on food processing economic activities because of supply and demand shocks. Second, the impact of COVID-19 on food processing may depend on the type of products and the size of the processors. The effects of measures taken by the government to flatten the epidemiological curve on the economic activities of the food processing sector are uncertain.     

The impact of COVID-19 on the grains and oilseeds sector

While downstream distribution and demand is likely to be hampered by the labor and income effects of COVID-19, Canada is expected to produce over 88 million tons of grains and oilseeds in 2020. Canadians have valid concerns about delays related to their changing needs as millions move their purchases from food services to retail groceries, but they should not worry about our overall supply of calories. Despite some shortages, the supply chains for flour and cooking oil are not likely to be blocked for an extended period. Learning from the coordinated needs of the BSE crisis in the beef sector, the federal government developed Value Chain Roundtables in 2003, including one for grains. These roundtables bring together government and industry to tackle the issues that face each sector's major needs, including food safety, transportation infrastructure, and market access. A working group made up of various roundtable members was set up specifically to deal with COVID-19-related supply chain challenges. This gives both industry and government a venue to attack any choke point or breakdown within our agrifood supply chains—the exact response we need at this time. A preestablished forum for discussion of critical issues at these roundtables, assuming the right players are active and present, cannot hurt, but it would useful for future planners and researchers if the federal government could clarify any positive impact they have.     

新冠肺炎疫情对全球食物安全的影响及对策

当前,新冠肺炎疫情已在全球扩散,许多本就因为冲突、自然灾害或气候变化而深陷食物不安全的国家和地区的防疫形势也日益严峻。虽然目前全球食物供给总体充足,食物价格稳定,但疫情的快速蔓延将给全球食物安全带来威胁。由于隔离和边境关闭,市场、供应链和贸易受到波及,全球食物的供给受到影响。食物流通渠道可能因运输中断和更加严格的检疫措施而受阻,运输成本和贸易成本增加、效率降低。一些国家为保障国内食物供应而采取限制出口的行为,将影响依赖于粮食进口的国家进口粮食,也不利于依赖于出口初级农产品的低收入发展中国家出口农产品。封锁措施带来的经济影响使居民收入和购买力下降,居民获得充足的营养食物变得更加困难。食物安全不再是一个区域性问题,而是一个需要共同应对的全球性问题,各国应当共同努力,加强合作和全球治理,对最弱势群体采取迅速的保护和援助措施。既要确保国内食物供应链的正常运行,同时,应该保持贸易开放,并利用和创新电子商务保障食物供应,保障全球粮食安全。     

Whither the pin factory? Modern food supply chains and specialization in India

What is the relationship between smallholder participation in modern food supply chains and their degree of economic specialization? We investigate this research question by looking at whether there is a systematic relationship between whether a household grows crops for a supermarket chain—participation in the supermarket channel—and how concentrated among fewer crops are that household's total landholdings and its output. Using longitudinal data from India, we find that there is no relationship between whether a household participates in the supermarket channel and that household's Herfindahl–Hirschman index for land, but there is a robust statistically significant and negative relationship between whether a household participates in the supermarket channel and that household's Herfindahl–Hirschman index for output. These findings hold true at both the extensive margin (i.e., when considering whether a household participates in the supermarket channel) and the intensive margin (i.e., when considering how much of a household's marketed output is sold through the supermarket chain). This suggests that instead of fostering a greater degree of specialization, participation in modern food supply chains might lead to greater diversification.     

Food supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper provides an early assessment of the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for food supply chains and supply chain resilience. The effects of demand-side shocks on food supply chains are discussed, including consumer panic buying behaviors with respect to key items, and the sudden change in consumption patterns away from the food service sector to meals prepared and consumed at home. Potential supply-side disruptions to food supply chains are assessed, including labor shortages, disruptions to transportation networks, and “thickening” of the Canada–U.S. border with respect to the movement of goods. Finally, the paper considers whether the COVID-19 pandemic will have longer-lasting effects on the nature of food supply chains, including the growth of the online grocery delivery sector, and the extent to which consumers will prioritize “local” food supply chains.     

Framing consumer food demand responses in a viral pandemic

In this paper I explore several issues related to how the COVID-19 pandemic might impact consumer demand for food. These impacts relate to the structure of preferences in the context of a pandemic, income and time constraints, and price effects. Discussion includes accounting for differential impacts of COVID-19 on demand for food across sociodemographic characteristics, and several high-level issues and observations related to where and how consumers shop and what they buy. My own thinking leads me to conclude that demand-side factors will account for most of the changes we see in retail food market. These demand-side effects will be dominated by income effects, the opportunity cost of time, and longer planning horizons on the part of consumers.     

我国贫困农村家庭食物安全状况及影响因素的实证研究

本文在深入分析食物安全、家庭食物安全内涵的基础上，利用12个国家挟贫重点县的农户调查资料，通过构建指标体系对我国贫困农村的家庭食物安全水平和程度进行衡量和评价，并对其影响因素进行了分析，结果表明：近20多年来，我国贫困农村地区的家庭食物安全水平不断提高，食物安全广度不断扩大，但是食物安全深度却出现下降；食物获得能力对家庭食物安全具有显著的正影响，提高贫困农村地区居民的收入水平和家庭粮食自给能力有助于降低家庭的食物不安全发生概率；食物可获得性对家庭食物安全具有非常显著的正影响，市场方便度越高，实现家庭食物安全的概率越高；家庭规模和家庭结构对家庭食物安全具有显著影响，随着家庭规模、家庭结构复杂程度和家庭温饱负担程度的提高，农户面临的食物不安全风险的概率也在增加。     

从全球视角分析在新冠肺炎疫情下如何保障食物和营养安全

流行性传染病的爆发往往伴随着食物与营养安全的风险。本文首先从全球视角回顾流行性传染病爆发对食物与营养安全的经验与教训,其次分析新冠肺炎疫情对中国食物和营养安全的潜在冲击,最后对如何在防范新冠肺炎疫情下保障中国和全球居民的食物和营养安全提出政策建议。本文分析指出,短期内中国食物与营养相对安全,但需要警惕疫情对中长期食物安全的影响。鉴于新冠肺炎疫情传播呈现全球化趋势,为防范全球食物和营养安全的系统性风险,需要加强全球合作,采取包括保障食物供应链畅通、保持贸易开放、减少对农业生产的冲击及关注贫困人口等综合应对措施。     

Agriculture,transportation, and the COVID-19 crisis

In this short paper, I assess how COVID-19-related disruptions in transportation services, as well as new demands for transportation services, could impact Canadian agricultural supply chains. The brief analysis reveals that agricultural access to bulk ocean freight, rail movement, and trucking has generally improved in the pandemic, bolstered by the reduced demand for these transportation services by other sectors of the economy. The intermodal containerized movement of grains and food products has seen some disruption from the lack of empty containers in North America. The widespread consumer adoption of physical distancing measures has vastly increased the demand for retail food pickup and delivery services to the point where these services are being rationed by long wait times. From a policy perspective, there is an apparent need for (a) continued supply chain monitoring and industry engagement, (b) the proactive development of strategies to deal with absenteeism and other potential threats to the supply chain, and (c) an assessment of the economic and health merits of providing additional public resources to provide greater access to grocery pickup and delivery services.     

食品价值链及其对食品企业质量安全信用行为的影响

不安全食品价值链的经济激励是供应链上厂商集体失信的诱因.不安全食品生产厂商通过要素替代和质量欺诈合作创造价值链,跨地域运作扩大了价值链的增值空间,灵活的进退机制提供了构建不安全食品链的条件.打破不安全食品价值链,实现供应链替代,改善厂商的信用治理环境,是促进食品企业建立质量安全信用机制的关键.     

Agricultural success from Africa: the case of fertilizer tree systems in southern Africa (Malawi,Tanzania, Mozambique,Zambia and Zimbabwe)

In response to the declining soil fertility in southern Africa and the negative effects that this leads to, such as food insecurity besides other developmental challenges, fertilizer tree systems (FTS) were developed as technological innovation to help smallholder farmers to build soil organic matter and fertility in a sustainable manner. In this paper, we trace the historical background and highlight the developmental phases and outcomes of the technology. The synthesis shows that FTS are inexpensive technologies that significantly raise crop yields, reduce food insecurity and enhance environmental services and resilience of agro-ecologies. Many of the achievements recorded with FTS can be traced to some key factors: the availability of a suite of technological options that are appropriate in a range of different household and ecological circumstances, partnership between multiple institutions and disciplines in the development of the technology, active encouragement of farmer innovations in the adaptation process and proactive engagement of several consortia of partner institutions to scale up the technology in farming communities. It is recommended that smallholder farmers would benefit if rural development planners emphasize the merits of different fertility replenishment approaches and taking advantage of the synergy between FTS and mineral fertilizers rather than focusing on ‘organic vs. inorganic’ debates.     

COVID-19 impact on fruit and vegetable markets

Canadian fruit and vegetable markets were significantly impacted by the spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (and COVID-19 disease), beginning in March 2020. Due to the closure of restaurants, bars, and schools, produce growers and distributors were forced to shift supplies almost entirely from the foodservice to the retail channel. Shippers reported labor and logistical constraints in making the change, but the fresh produce supply chain remained robust. In the long term, we expect lasting changes in consumers’ online food-purchasing habits, heightened constraints on immigrant labor markets, and tighter concentration in fresh produce distribution and perhaps retailing.     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击粮食安全:趋势、影响与应对

新冠肺炎疫情在全球加速扩散蔓延,引发全球粮食市场异常波动以及对中国粮食安全的担忧。疫情对后期全球粮食生产与贸易的影响将进一步加大,全球粮食市场波动有可能进一步升级。随着全球金融市场充分释放流动性,国际投机资本若炒作农产品市场,爆发类似2008年粮食危机的风险将越来越高。分析表明,中国粮食安全保障体系总体上可从容应对全球粮食市场波动升级的挑战,但大豆等农产品进口需防控国际市场波动风险。本文认为,要高度重视全球粮食市场波动的可能风险和挑战,必须加强监测、及早谋划,系统应对、综合施策。包括:有效管控输入性不稳定预期对国内粮食市场的干扰和冲击;进一步强化粮食生产能力建设;构建国家粮食安全保障风险治理体系;完善重要农产品储备体系;强化农产品全球供应链管理;加强国际粮食安全、贸易和投资政策协调。     

The COVID-19 pandemic and agriculture: Short- and long-run implications for international trade relations

The COVID-19 pandemic has put unprecedented strain on food supply chains. Given the ever-increasing degree of globalization, those supply chains very often stretch across international borders. In the short run, countries have largely been working to keep those supply chains intact and operating efficiently so that panic buying is cooled and shifts in consumption habits arising from personal isolation can be accommodated. Once the crisis has passed, based on what has been learned regarding the international food system's resilience, governments may wish to strengthen institutions that govern international trade. On the other hand, based on their COVID-19 experience, governments may feel that they are too dependent on foreign sources of supply and may wish to reverse the impacts of globalization on their food systems. As a result, they may become increasingly isolationist, eschewing international cooperation. Which of these opposing forces will prevail may depend on the paths economies follow after the disequilibrium precipitated by the pandemic.     

Do Plant Clinics Improve Household Food Security? Evidence from Rwanda

One of the main drivers of food insecurity is pests, which are estimated to cause around 40% of crop losses worldwide. We examine the food security effects of plant clinics, a novel agricultural extension model that aims to reduce crop losses due to pests through the provision of demand‐driven plant health diagnostic and advisory services to smallholder farmers. The study is based on survey data from maize‐growing households in Rwanda, where 66 plant clinics have been established. Using switching regression and matching techniques as well as various food security metrics, including the food insecurity experience scale, we find evidence that participation in plant clinics is significantly associated with a reduction in household food insecurity. For instance, among the participating households, plant clinics contribute to a decrease in the period of food shortage by one month and a reduction in the severity of food insecurity by 22 percentage points. We also show that these effects are more pronounced for female‐headed households. Overall, our findings suggest that plant clinics can play an important role in achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 2 of zero hunger.     

Risk management in Canada's agricultural sector in light of COVID-19

The unexpected introduction and spread of COVID-19 has presented significant challenges for every aspect of Canadian society. Although the food and agricultural sector is positioned better than most, there are many risks that will need to be managed in the coming months. The suite of Federal-Provincial-Territorial Business Risk Management (BRM) programs delivered under the Canadian Agricultural Policy framework are meant to assist farmers in managing risks; however, there are no corresponding specialized programs for agribusinesses. The underlying structure of the BRM program was developed decades ago and certainly not with any thought to the possibility of a global pandemic. This article considers to what extent the BRM program and, more broadly, government programming will assist farmers in managing new risks. By default, the article is speculative in nature given that we are currently at the onset of the pandemic in Canada.     

The effect of violent conflict on calorie consumption and dietary quality in Iraq

By combining 2012 Living Standard Measurement Survey cross-sectional survey responses and georeferenced conflict data, this study quantifies the effect of violent conflict on food security and dietary quality in Iraq. Specifically, it estimates the effect of physical insecurity on different food security dimensions, including caloric consumption and household dietary diversity. Because disrespecting war-related foreign national cemeteries is a war crime that discourages nearby fighting, instrumenting conflict intensity by the exogenous variation in distance between these sites and household place of residence addresses potential sources of bias. The instrumental variable analysis confirms the positive (negative) effect of conflict—deriving from state, non-state and one-sided violence (e.g., attacks by the Islamic State)—on per capita caloric consumption (household dietary diversity), which although counterintuitive is unsurprising given Iraq's relatively high-income levels and changes in dietary pattern. Given that the primary driver of conflict's positive effect on calories is increased consumption of carbohydrates and, to a lesser extent, saturated fat, these results suggest that in countries transitioning to Western-style diets, violent conflict may drive the population toward an unhealthier diet, contributing heavily to a growing national prevalence of nutrition-related non-communicable diseases.     

新冠肺炎疫情对我国粮食安全的影响分析及稳定产量的建议

稳定粮食安全根基是应对各类黑天鹅、灰犀牛事件的有力保障。疫情期间,充足的粮食供给再次发挥了安天下、稳民心的作用。从目前调查的情况来看,疫情对粮食生产经营的影响是暂时的、局部的、有限的,疫情持续也带来农资价格上涨、物资到位迟缓等问题。但种粮效益低、农业气象偏差、传统病虫害与输入性虫害叠加、国际经贸形势日趋复杂等挑战交织,是确保全年粮食产量、供应稳定的主要挑战。要高度重视抗疫战线拉长带来的负面影响,积极疏通农资供应渠道、有序组织返田返工,更要稳住政策支持,完善设施装备配套,强化技术支撑,做好防灾减灾。