Food security and Canada's agricultural system challenged by COVID-19

The effect of COVID-19 on Canadian food security is examined from two different perspectives. COVID-19 creates a unique “income shock” that is expected to increase the prevalence of household food insecurity. This food insecurity can be measured by utilizing the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). More fundamentally, COVID-19 heightens household concern about the capacity of the Canadian food system to ensure food availability. Despite surges in demand and supply chain disruptions, we currently do not observe broad, rapid appreciation in food prices. This suggests that there is an adequate supply of food for the near term. There is less certainty over intermediate and longer time periods because so many factors are in flux, particularly the rate of increases in sicknesses and deaths across the country and globally. Data on these health factors and elements of the food supply chain are needed to predict beyond a short time frame. In this regard, we discuss three ongoing considerations—ease of capital flows, international exchange, and maintaining transportation—that will help ensure food availability in the longer run.     

新冠肺炎疫情对全球食物安全的影响及对策

当前,新冠肺炎疫情已在全球扩散,许多本就因为冲突、自然灾害或气候变化而深陷食物不安全的国家和地区的防疫形势也日益严峻。虽然目前全球食物供给总体充足,食物价格稳定,但疫情的快速蔓延将给全球食物安全带来威胁。由于隔离和边境关闭,市场、供应链和贸易受到波及,全球食物的供给受到影响。食物流通渠道可能因运输中断和更加严格的检疫措施而受阻,运输成本和贸易成本增加、效率降低。一些国家为保障国内食物供应而采取限制出口的行为,将影响依赖于粮食进口的国家进口粮食,也不利于依赖于出口初级农产品的低收入发展中国家出口农产品。封锁措施带来的经济影响使居民收入和购买力下降,居民获得充足的营养食物变得更加困难。食物安全不再是一个区域性问题,而是一个需要共同应对的全球性问题,各国应当共同努力,加强合作和全球治理,对最弱势群体采取迅速的保护和援助措施。既要确保国内食物供应链的正常运行,同时,应该保持贸易开放,并利用和创新电子商务保障食物供应,保障全球粮食安全。     

新冠肺炎疫情防控下的国家治理

2020年突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情考验着中国国家治理能力,个人的生命安全成为核心关注点。疫情防控下的国家治理,需切实关注国家与个人之间的关系问题。个人和国家之间的合作或对抗,形构着个人与国家之间的信任机制。从国家和个人(社会)两个视角出发,以行政改革促进抗击疫情中"自下而上"的联防机制和"自上而下"的回应机制的建设,能够有效地在国家—个人之间建立起互信关系。现代国家唯有形成上下一体、有序统一的治理格局,才能有效应对疫情防控中的治理难题。     

COVID-19 and the power of indigenous,Mexican-origin farmworker families in the US Pacific Northwest

Over the last several years—in the context of US political upheaval, ongoing crises related to climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic and an economic downturn—indigenous, Mexican-origin farmworker families in Washington State have engaged more intensely in class struggle through acts of solidarity and forms of collective action, in part through independent labour unions, worker cooperatives and mutual aid. This article chronicles the labour struggles that led to a notion of class rooted in family units of production and that strengthened transnational solidarity in resistance to racist forms of exploitation in the agricultural sector. Class organization rooted in family and solidarity has allowed indigenous agricultural workers in Washington State to face COVID-19 and incidents driven by climate change, which syndemically compounded existing community health crises, from a place of power. Focusing on the experience of farmworker families in Washington State, I outline agricultural employers' exploitation of workers during this period of increased vulnerability and the strength of farmworkers' resolve to take their health and well-being into their own hands.     

Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China

The efficiency of the Chinese wheat and soybean futures markets is studied. Formal statistical tests were conducted based on Johansen's cointegration approach for three different cash markets and six different futures forecasting horizons ranging from 1 week to 4 months. The results suggest a long-term equilibrium relationship between the futures price and cash price for soybeans and weak short-term efficiency in the soybean futures market. The futures market for wheat is inefficient, which may be caused by over-speculation and government intervention.     

新冠肺炎疫情对2020年农业农村发展的影响评估与应对建议

由于种养业季节性强、农民工流动性大、农村防护条件差,疫情对农业农村发展的影响具有全面性和持久性。研究显示,疫情防控导致的物流中断,家禽养殖企业遭遇生存危机,导致短期肉价下跌和2020年肉类供需紧张局面加剧;果蔬滞销、粮食销售延迟以及部分农产品消费抑制,将使相当部分种植户2020年收益面临下滑;疫情期间的延期复工和疫情后的长期停工会导致农民工就业人数下降205万人至351.1万人,2020年农民工人均工资收入名义增长速度可能将下降1.45至2.46个百分点。综合考虑疫情对各项收入来源的影响,2020年农村居民人均可支配收入名义增长速度可能将下降2.59至3.59个百分点。因此,应加紧建立应急储备和加大供需调节力度,以补贴和政策性信贷支持引导龙头企业帮助小农户度过难关,加大对农民工再就业培训和返乡创业的支持,多渠道稳定农民收入。     

Migrant farmworkers: Resisting and organising before,during and after COVID-19

Migrant farmworkers are a ubiquitous but invisibilised, expropriated and exploited component of the global agricultural economy. Their conditions took centre-stage during the COVID-19 pandemic. Fear of production disruption in the migrant labour-intensive sectors led to foreign workers being deemed ‘essential’ in many countries, and exceptional procedures and regulations were instituted that further increased their exploitation, illnesses and deaths. However, the pandemic has not merely exposed the long-established structures of racialised exploitation and expropriation in the domain of farm work. Although it exacerbated the precariousness of the living and working conditions defining the reality of migrant farm workers, there is evidence that the pandemic also strengthened farmworkers' individual and collective consciousness, along with forms of organisation and resistance. The symposium ‘Migrant Farmworkers: Resisting and Organizing before, during and after COVID-19’ explores two dimensions reflected in migrant farmworkers' realities during the pandemic. First, the contributions look at the general conditions defining power structures and material outcomes within the political economy of agriculture before and during the pandemic. Second, they explore the conditions under which resistance and solidarity emerged to question established structures of exploitation.     

Futures markets and price stabilisation: An analysis of soybeans markets in North America

The objective of this paper was to determine whether the futures markets have a stabilising or destabilising impact on soybean's spot prices in North America. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are used to test for causality between futures prices, spot prices and ending stocks, followed by time series econometric analysis. The DAGs point to the two-way causal link between futures and spot prices and a lack of a causal link between inventory/stocks and spot price volatility. Time series results, including cointegration, vector error correction, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, indicate a large impact from futures markets on the level and volatility of soybean spot prices in both the short and long run. These results have potentially important implications, as the impact of commodity price volatility is typically asymmetric across different actors. Farmers, for example, unlike speculators, utilise price risk management (PRM) instruments such as futures markets to mitigate price risks and appear to suffer from intensified volatility precisely because of their use of these instruments. Therefore, additional policies to cope with commodity price volatility, such as direct price controls or mitigation of consequences, can have critical stabilising functions supporting farmers' welfare and regional (rural) development.     

Essential agriculture,sacrificial labor,and the COVID-19 pandemic in the US South

As farmworkers were reframed as “essential” workers during the COVID-19 pandemic, US growers demanded unfettered access to foreign farm labor. After initially announcing a freeze on all immigration processing, the Trump administration bowed to farmers' demands, granting a single exception for agricultural guestworkers under the H-2A visa program. Through a focus on H-2A farmworkers in Georgia, this paper highlights how the pandemic exacerbated farm labor conditions in the US South. The author interrogates these conditions through the lens of racial capitalism, exposing the legacies of plantation political economies and a longstanding agricultural labor system premised on devaluing racialized labor. These histories are obscured by the myth of agricultural exceptionalism—the idea that agriculture is too different and important to be subject to the same rules and regulations as other industries. Agricultural exceptionalism naturalizes the racial capitalist system and informs state responses that privilege agricultural production through the exploitation of farmworkers, remaking “essential” farmworkers as sacrificial labor.     

疫情常态化背景下红旗渠景区管控机制

为进一步优化红旗渠景区管效用水平,提升红旗渠景区经济效益和社会效益,基于布朗芬布伦纳提出的生态系统模型构建了红旗渠景区旅游生态圈,对疫情常态化背景下红旗渠景区的管控机制展开探讨并提出以下建议措施:构建三元主体协调的组织架构,完善旅游生态圈运行保障体系,以及优化旅游生态圈宏观环境系统。     

Economic thoughts on COVID-19 for Canadian food processors

In this paper, I explore the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Canadian food processors. First, COVID-19 may have an impact on food processing economic activities because of supply and demand shocks. Second, the impact of COVID-19 on food processing may depend on the type of products and the size of the processors. The effects of measures taken by the government to flatten the epidemiological curve on the economic activities of the food processing sector are uncertain.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and agriculture: Short- and long-run implications for international trade relations

The COVID-19 pandemic has put unprecedented strain on food supply chains. Given the ever-increasing degree of globalization, those supply chains very often stretch across international borders. In the short run, countries have largely been working to keep those supply chains intact and operating efficiently so that panic buying is cooled and shifts in consumption habits arising from personal isolation can be accommodated. Once the crisis has passed, based on what has been learned regarding the international food system's resilience, governments may wish to strengthen institutions that govern international trade. On the other hand, based on their COVID-19 experience, governments may feel that they are too dependent on foreign sources of supply and may wish to reverse the impacts of globalization on their food systems. As a result, they may become increasingly isolationist, eschewing international cooperation. Which of these opposing forces will prevail may depend on the paths economies follow after the disequilibrium precipitated by the pandemic.     

Agriculture,transportation, and the COVID-19 crisis

In this short paper, I assess how COVID-19-related disruptions in transportation services, as well as new demands for transportation services, could impact Canadian agricultural supply chains. The brief analysis reveals that agricultural access to bulk ocean freight, rail movement, and trucking has generally improved in the pandemic, bolstered by the reduced demand for these transportation services by other sectors of the economy. The intermodal containerized movement of grains and food products has seen some disruption from the lack of empty containers in North America. The widespread consumer adoption of physical distancing measures has vastly increased the demand for retail food pickup and delivery services to the point where these services are being rationed by long wait times. From a policy perspective, there is an apparent need for (a) continued supply chain monitoring and industry engagement, (b) the proactive development of strategies to deal with absenteeism and other potential threats to the supply chain, and (c) an assessment of the economic and health merits of providing additional public resources to provide greater access to grocery pickup and delivery services.     

COVID-19 and the Canadian cattle/beef sector: Some preliminary analysis

Canada's cattle/beef sector has already weathered a shock after a 2003 case of BSE resulted in closed borders and industry restructuring. Now, the sector has to adjust to similar shocks due to COVID-19. This paper examines the supply chain from the consumer up to the cow–calf producer by considering consumer reactions, labor market constraints, and supply response. A quarterly market model of North American cattle and beef markets is used to examine price and revenue impacts associated with the market disruptions. Depending on the scenario, there is considerable price and revenue suppression at all levels of the market.     

2020年农民增收:新冠肺炎疫情的影响与应对建议

新冠肺炎疫情将从多个渠道、多重方式对今年农民增收带来严重冲击,其中对工资性收入影响尤为突出。疫情在全球加速扩散,对全球经济贸易增长冲击严重,通过全球供应链影响我国产业经营和农民就业,今年后期农民持续增收挑战巨大。本文认为必须统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展两线作战;加快中小企业复工复产,实施文化旅游产业振兴,加大创新创业支持,恢复和稳定农民就业增收;创新农产品产销对接,实施产业提升工程,提升风险治理能力,稳住和促进农业经营增收;加强国际疫情研判,抓紧做好防范应对,稳住农民增收基础。要对标问题、攻坚克难、系统发力,通过一揽子政策助力农民持续增收,力争如期实现全面建成小康社会和全面打赢脱贫攻坚战目标。     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击粮食安全:趋势、影响与应对

新冠肺炎疫情在全球加速扩散蔓延,引发全球粮食市场异常波动以及对中国粮食安全的担忧。疫情对后期全球粮食生产与贸易的影响将进一步加大,全球粮食市场波动有可能进一步升级。随着全球金融市场充分释放流动性,国际投机资本若炒作农产品市场,爆发类似2008年粮食危机的风险将越来越高。分析表明,中国粮食安全保障体系总体上可从容应对全球粮食市场波动升级的挑战,但大豆等农产品进口需防控国际市场波动风险。本文认为,要高度重视全球粮食市场波动的可能风险和挑战,必须加强监测、及早谋划,系统应对、综合施策。包括:有效管控输入性不稳定预期对国内粮食市场的干扰和冲击;进一步强化粮食生产能力建设;构建国家粮食安全保障风险治理体系;完善重要农产品储备体系;强化农产品全球供应链管理;加强国际粮食安全、贸易和投资政策协调。     

E-commerce and supply chain resilience during COVID-19: Evidence from agricultural input e-stores in China

COVID-19 has caused major disruptions to agricultural supply chains around the world. Researchers and policy-makers are interested in identifying means to reduce the disruptive effects caused by the pandemic. We investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on the operation of e-commerce stores (in short, e-stores) specialising in agricultural inputs. The difference-in-differences method (DID) is employed to estimate the causal relationship between COVID-19 and online sales of agricultural inputs using data from 54,244 agricultural input e-stores registered in 118 prefecture-level cities across 15 provinces and hosted on two major Chinese e-commerce platforms. The results show that COVID-19 led to a substantial growth in monthly sales of agricultural input e-stores, and this growth of online sales varied across store scales and by types of agricultural inputs. In particular, e-stores selling seeds and seedlings experienced a larger growth in sales than stores selling agricultural machinery and implements, and the mid- and larger-scaled e-stores experienced more growth of sales than micro- and small-scaled e-stores. Further analysis reveals that the growth of online sales of agricultural inputs was driven mainly by an increase in the quantity of customer orders (QCO). The findings of this paper underscore the importance of e-commerce in ensuring the resilience of the agricultural supply chain during the pandemic period.