Measuring and decomposing agricultural productivity and profitability change*

Profitability change can be decomposed into the product of a total factor productivity (TFP) index and an index measuring changes in relative prices. Many TFP indexes can be further decomposed into measures of technical change, technical efficiency change, scale efficiency change and mix efficiency change. The class of indexes that can be decomposed in this way includes the Fisher, Törnqvist and Hicks–Moorsteen TFP indexes but not the Malmquist TFP index of Caves, Christensen and Diewert (1982). This paper develops data envelopment analysis methodology for computing and decomposing the Hicks–Moorsteen index. The empirical feasibility of the methodology is demonstrated using country‐level agricultural data covering the period 1970–2001. The paper explains why relatively small countries tend to be the most productive, and why favourable movements in relative prices tend to simultaneously increase net returns and decrease productivity. Australia appears to have experienced this relative price effect since at least 1970. Thus, if Australia is a price‐taker in output and input markets, Australian agricultural policy‐makers should not be overly concerned about the estimated 15 per cent decline in agricultural productivity that has taken place over the last three decades.     

水产养殖业新型农业经营主体全要素生产率研究——基于微观主体面板数据和SFA法

目的 新型农业经营主体是推动农业现代化发展的重要力量,研究其生产效率及变化趋势、分析比较不同类型新型农业经营主体的效率对于推进农业高质量发展、促进乡村振兴具有重要意义。方法 文章聚焦水产养殖领域,基于2018—2021年全国429个养殖生产新型农业经营主体样本面板数据,采用随机前沿生产函数分析了全要素生产率（TFP）,并分解其驱动因素。采用共同随机前沿模型比较分析了龙头企业、农民专业合作社和家庭农场3类新型农业经营主体模式的生产技术效率。结果 （1）增加物质资料、劳动力、固定资产等方面的投入对产出增长有显著促进作用,但增加服务投入并未显著促进产出。（2）TFP增长的动力来源是技术进步,规模报酬率的贡献不大,而技术效率和配置效率的下降对TFP增长起到阻碍作用。（3）龙头企业、合作社、家庭农场3类新型农业经营主体的技术效率各有特点,以群组前沿面为基准时家庭农场的技术效率最高,以共同前沿面为基准时合作社的技术效率最高,以技术差距比表征的技术水平衡量,则龙头企业技术水平最高。结论 建议加强科技投入,提升技术效率,优化成本投入结构,加强各类新型农业经营主体的联合与合作。     

Developing Hedging Strategies for Québec Hog Producers under Revenue Insurance

The paper investigates the optimal hedging strategies of Québec hog producers when they participate in a publicly funded revenue insurance program known as ASRA (Régime d'assurance-stabilisation des revenus agricoles). A forecast model of local cash and futures prices is built and Monte Carlo methods are used to derive the optimal futures and option positions of Québec hog producers. The positive correlation between forecasts of futures and cash spot prices induces positive sales of futures and put options to hedge price risk. ASRA provides put options to hog producers at actuarially advantageous terms. Producers can increase the expected utility of profits by selling back a portion of these put options using financial markets. Options are attractive to manage price risk given the nonlinearity in the profit function induced by the revenue insurance scheme. Speculative incentives to use futures and options are also discussed in the context of ASRA.     

Impact of CAP Subsidies on Technical Efficiency of Crop Farms in Germany,the Netherlands and Sweden

This paper analyses the impacts of CAP reforms, particularly subsidies on technical efficiency of crop farms. An output distance function is employed and estimated together with an inefficiency effects model to capture the effects of CAP subsidies and farmer characteristics on farm efficiency. The model is applied to FADN data (period 1995–2004) of crop farms in Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. The study shows that the 10‐year average technical efficiency is 64% in Germany, 76% in the Netherlands and 71% in Sweden. The average annual changes in technical efficiency are 0.1%, 0.4% and 2.3%, respectively. The share of crop subsidies in total subsidies has a negative impact on technical efficiency in Germany but a positive impact in Sweden, although insignificant in the Netherlands. The share of total subsidies in total farm revenues has negative impacts on technical efficiency in all three countries, consistent with income and insurance effects. Positive (negative) change in technical efficiency is mainly attributable to farm size (degree of specialisation) in Germany, and degree of specialisation (degree of subsidy dependence) in the Netherlands and Sweden.     

Decomposition of output growth in the Tunisian olive-growing sector: A frontier production function approach

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relative contribution of technical efficiency, technological change, and increased input use to the output growth of the Tunisian olive oil growing farms, using a stochastic frontier production function approach applied to panel data for the period 1995-1997. The proposed methodology is based on the use of a flexible translog functional form. Results indicate that technical efficiency of production in the sample of olive producing farms investigated ranges from a minimum of 24.8% to a maximum of 84.6% with an average technical efficiency estimate of 48.5%. This suggests that olive producers may increase their production by as much as 51.5% through more efficient use of production inputs. Further, the production is characterized by decreasing returns to scale, which on average was 0.8. Finally, investigation of the sources of production growth reveals that the contribution of conventional inputs (labor, in particular) and technical change are found to be the main source of that growth, since total factor productivity increased during the study period, but at a slowing rate.     

Catching Up or Falling Behind in European Agriculture: The Case of Milk Production

The paper explores and analyses the catching up and falling behind processes in the European dairy sector over the period 2004–2011, using a stochastic metafrontier multiple output distance function for 24 EU Member States. The metafrontier estimates reveal considerable productivity differences in milk production across the EU at the regional (NUTS‐2) level. Milk yield per cow is the highest in the old Member States, especially in those regions located in the northwest of the EU, while the lowest productivity is observed in Eastern Europe. The same structure was found for both the TFP (Total Factor Productivity) levels and TFP growth. Moreover, the results for technical change suggest that farm sizes are not optimal in many regions in Central and Eastern Europe from a dynamic perspective. The comparative analysis suggests that in the new compared to the old Member States, fewer farms could benefit from the movement of the frontier. Moreover, there are no signs that poorly performing farms are catching up with the best performing farms in the EU regions/countries.     

A Real Options Approach for the Investment Decisions of a Farm‐Based Anaerobic Digester

The profitability of anaerobic digesters (ADs) for Ontario dairy farmers are examined using real options under current and proposed government pricing policies and investment uncertainty. In the case of a renewable energy initiative such as an AD with large sunk costs and volatile returns, the value of deferring investment may be significant enough to offset the returns suggested by the net present value (NPV) approach. For a 150 cow herd, net revenues should be approximately $1.1 million before the AD is installed using the real options approach as compared to $0.5 million with the NPV approach. An AD is close to generating a positive NPV for a 600 cow herd if for either a 1% increase in the electrical price or decrease in the cost. However, farmers need not invest today and there is a value to delaying this decision from potential improvements in the technology that increase the efficiency and/or decrease operating costs of the AD. The real options analysis indicates that this option to delay investment has a value of approximately $300,000 for a typical Ontario dairy farm. Thus, either significant grant funding or higher feed‐in‐tariff rates are required to induce the increased adoption of AD technology in Ontario today even for the largest of dairy farms. Considering the probability of government support potentially ending, increases the value of investing today but a significant option value to defer still exists.     

How U.S. Farm Programs and Crop Revenue Insurance Affect Returns to Farm Land

A simulation model incorporating price and yield variability is used to examine the impact of government farm program and crop revenue coverage (CRC) insurance payments on the probability distribution of returns to land. Results indicate that Marketing Loan Program payments have the greatest impact on both the mean and standard deviation of returns. Agricultural Market Transition Act payments shift the distribution of returns without changing the variability, creating a reduction in relative risk. Market loss assistance payments increase the mean, reduce variability, and increase skewness. When combined, farm programs substantially increase the value that risk-averse producers place on the residual returns to land and substantially reduce the certainty equivalent value of CRC.     

Estimation of Profit Functions When Profit is Not Maximum

This paper deals with derivation and implications of profit functions when profit is not maximum due to the presence of either technical inefficiency or allocative inefficiency, or both. We show that input demand and output supply, elasticities, and returns to scale are, in general, affected by these inefficiencies. We also show that the overall profit efficiency is not necessarily the product of technical and allocative efficiencies, meaning that technical and allocative inefficiencies are not necessarily independent. Estimation techniques are developed for both cross-sectional and panel data models. Working of the model is illustrated using a panel of 60 salmon farms.     

中国大宗淡水鱼养殖户技术效率、TFP增长及分解——基于25个省份微观调查数据

本文基于2011—2017年养殖户的微观调查数据,利用超越对数的随机前沿生产函数实证分析了大宗淡水鱼养殖户的技术效率、TFP增长及其分解。研究发现,(1)大宗淡水鱼养殖户的技术效率为0.827,表明养殖户的技术利用水平还存在较大的改进空间;(2)不同养殖规模对养殖户技术效率影响不显著,但专业化养殖对技术效率具有显著的正向影响;(3)养殖户TFP年均增长率为3.29%,且呈持续增长趋势;(4)养殖户TFP增长主要来源于技术进步,但技术效率的下降阻碍了TFP的增长;(5)技术效率和TFP增长都具有明显的区域性特征,总体表现为从西部到东部递减的趋势。     

低碳约束下木材加工业全要素生产率研究

在考虑碳排放的基础上运用DEA-Malmquist指数测算了13个国家木材加工业的全要素生产率。对比分析1995~2009年发达国家与发展中国家木材加工业全要素生产率的发展变化情况。研究发现:总体而言,考虑CO2排放的木材加工业全要素生产率要高于传统全要素生产率,技术进步是全要素生产率增长的主要原因。低碳约束前后发达国家木材加工业全要素生产率平均水平要高于发展中国家。从1995年到2009年由于技术进步指数的变化引起了中国木材加工业全要素生产率较大的波动。根据实证分析结论,提出适当调整产业规模、提高产业技术创新水平等建议。     

Farm size,relative efficiency and agrarian policy in Côte d'Ivoire: profit function analysis of rice farms

This paper examines the relative economic efficiency of small and large rice farms in Côte d'Ivoire using a profit function approach. No differences in the relative economic efficiency of small and large farms were found. This conclusion is robust under alternative model specifications. Agrarian reforms directed towards further concentration of landholding for large farms in Côte d'Ivoire cannot be justified based on economic efficiency. Results show that access to credit and use of modern rice varieties significantly increase profits. To improve technical efficiency of rice farms, an accelerated program to provide information, credit, improved seeds and other inputs is needed. When all the farms (i.e. large and small) are taken together, there is evidence of allocative inefficiency. Strategies are needed to remove such management related inefficiencies in rice production either through the development of a better market price information system or effective farmer-oriented technical training programs by rice extension workers.     

Technology choice and efficiency on Australian dairy farms*

Deregulation of the Australian dairy industry, specifically the removal of price subsidies to ‘market milk’, as well as ongoing drought in many dairy regions, has placed considerable pressure on farm cash income and a search for ways in which dairy farms can be made to operate more efficiently. Using traditional farm survey data and a unique biannual data set on farm technology use, this paper estimates a stochastic production frontier and technical efficiency model for dairy farms in New South Wales and Victoria, determining the relative importance of each input in dairy production, the effects of key technology variables on farm efficiency, and overall farm profiles based on the efficiency rankings of dairy producers. Results show that production exhibits constant returns to scale and although feed concentration and the number of cows milked at peak season matter, the key determinants of differences in dairy farm efficiency are the type of dairy shed used and the proportion of irrigated farm area. Overall farm profiles indicate that those in the ‘high efficiency group’ largely employ either rotary or swing‐over dairy shed technology and have almost three times the proportional amount of land under irrigation.     

On the Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Countries

Time series analysis of annual data for a sample of developing countries shows the allocation of government spending shocks, both positive and negative, between price inflation and output growth. Cross-country regressions evaluate determinants of the difference in the real effects of government spending shocks. If the real effects decrease, capacity constraints are more binding and if they increase, the elasticity of aggregate demand is larger with respect to the change in government spending. Cross-country regressions also evaluate the implications of government spending shocks on the difference in trend price inflation and output growth. The variability of government spending shocks decreases trend real output growth and increases trend price inflation across countries.     

Technical and scale efficiency of crop and livestock farms in Poland: does specialization matter?

The technical and scale efficiency of Polish farms is analyzed using data envelopment analysis. Efficiency differences are measured according to farm specialization, in crop or livestock, at two points in time during transition, 1996 and 2000. The efficiency results are reviewed in light of confidence intervals provided by bootstrapping. Livestock farms are found to be, on average, more technically and scale efficient than crop farms. Scale efficiency is high for both specializations. Technical inefficiency appears mostly to be due to “pure technical” rather than “scale” inefficiency, and thus attributable to inefficient management practices. The evidence suggests that the low‐educational attainment of people engaged in agriculture is one important reason for these inefficient practices. In 2000, 64% of livestock farms and 86% of crop farms were operating under increasing returns to scale. Improvements in the land lease legislation and changes to the policy support to farmers' pensions could stimulate the land market and remove the incentives to keep a fragmented operational structure.     

TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN UK AGRICULTURE, 1967-90

Indices of total factor productivity (TFP) measure aggregate output per unit of aggregate input, providing a guide to the efficiency of agricultural production. This paper outlines the relationship between production functions and TFP indices. An index for the period 1967-90, constructed from the UK aggregate agricultural accounts, shows that TFP grew at an average rate of 1.9% per annum and that TFP growth has increased since the UK joined the European Community. At the aggregate level, this change seems to be explained by increased aggregate output and decreased aggregate input, in about equal proportions. Disaggregation shows the intensification effect of the CAP price regime. There has been rapid growth in the output of farm crops, relative to other enterprises, and in the use of agricultural chemicals.     

基于DEA模型的林业上市公司经营效率研究

应用数据包络分析(DEA)模型,对20个沪深股市涉林行业上市公司的经营效率进行对比分析。研究结果表明:林业上市公司综合经营效率整体情况都比较好,部分综合效率为轻度或中度无效的林业上市公司当中,一部分受纯技术效率或规模效率的影响,一部分受两者共同影响,并存在规模报酬递增或递减的情况,深入分析可得到受纯技术效率影响的11家企业存在不同程度的投入冗余或者产出不足。因此,提出提高林业上市公司经营效率,应着力于提升林业上市公司资源配置效率、提高其技术创新水平和规模效率,并加强其内部控制体系建设或完善。     

Small U.S. dairy farms: can they compete?

The U.S. dairy industry is undergoing rapid structural change, evolving from a structure including many small farmers in the Upper Midwest and Northeast to one that includes very large farms in new production regions. Small farms are struggling to retain competitiveness via improved management and low‐input systems. Using data from USDA's Agricultural Resource Management Survey, we determine the extent of U.S. conventional and pasture‐based milk production during 2003–2007, and estimate net returns, scale efficiency, and technical efficiency associated with the systems across different operation sizes. We compare the financial performance of small conventional and pasture‐based producers with one another and with large‐scale producers. A stochastic production frontier is used to analyze performance over the period for conventional and pasture technologies identified using a binomial logit model. Large conventional farms generally outperformed smaller farms using most economic measures—technical efficiency, various profitability measures, and returns to scale.     

The Effect of Investment,LFA and Agri-environmental Subsidies on the Components of Total Factor Productivity: The Case of Slovenian Farms

The effect of subsidies on the performance of farms has received a great deal of attention in the literature, although results are inconclusive. Furthermore, much of the related literature examines the effect of subsidies only on technical efficiency (TE). We examine the effect of different types of subsidies on the different components of total factor productivity (TFP) in Slovenian agriculture over the period 2006–2013. We first estimate a Random Parameter Stochastic production frontier model. Then, based on the estimates of this model, we calculate and decompose the TFP index into TE, scale efficiency and technological change. Third, we apply combined difference-in-difference and a matching estimator to examine the effect of investment, less favoured area (LFA) and agri-environmental (AE) subsidies on the different components of TFP. In our case, these subsidies are found to have no significant effect on either TFP or on its components.     

Bt Cotton,Pesticide Use and Environmental Efficiency in Pakistan

There is a broad literature on the impact of Bt cotton adoption in different countries, but few studies have explicitly looked at environmental and health effects from an economic perspective. We analyse the impact of Bt cotton on environmental efficiency in Pakistan, using farm survey data and a doubly heteroskedastic stochastic production function framework. Negative environmental and health effects of chemical pesticide use are quantified with the environmental impact quotient. Bt‐adopting farms have higher cotton yields, while using lower pesticide quantities and causing less environmental damage. Bt farms are both technically and environmentally more efficient than non‐Bt farms. Bt adoption increases environmental efficiency by 37%. Achieving the same reduction in negative environmental and health impact without Bt would cost conventional cotton farmers US$ 54 per acre in terms of foregone yields and revenues (7% of total revenues). Extrapolating this shadow price of the technology's health and environmental benefits to the total Bt cotton area in Pakistan results in an aggregate value of US$ 370 million. These benefits are in addition to the profit gains for Bt‐adopting farmers. Our results suggest that Bt technology can contribute to sustainable agricultural development.