Food security and Canada's agricultural system challenged by COVID-19

The effect of COVID-19 on Canadian food security is examined from two different perspectives. COVID-19 creates a unique “income shock” that is expected to increase the prevalence of household food insecurity. This food insecurity can be measured by utilizing the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). More fundamentally, COVID-19 heightens household concern about the capacity of the Canadian food system to ensure food availability. Despite surges in demand and supply chain disruptions, we currently do not observe broad, rapid appreciation in food prices. This suggests that there is an adequate supply of food for the near term. There is less certainty over intermediate and longer time periods because so many factors are in flux, particularly the rate of increases in sicknesses and deaths across the country and globally. Data on these health factors and elements of the food supply chain are needed to predict beyond a short time frame. In this regard, we discuss three ongoing considerations—ease of capital flows, international exchange, and maintaining transportation—that will help ensure food availability in the longer run.     

Essential agriculture,sacrificial labor,and the COVID-19 pandemic in the US South

As farmworkers were reframed as “essential” workers during the COVID-19 pandemic, US growers demanded unfettered access to foreign farm labor. After initially announcing a freeze on all immigration processing, the Trump administration bowed to farmers' demands, granting a single exception for agricultural guestworkers under the H-2A visa program. Through a focus on H-2A farmworkers in Georgia, this paper highlights how the pandemic exacerbated farm labor conditions in the US South. The author interrogates these conditions through the lens of racial capitalism, exposing the legacies of plantation political economies and a longstanding agricultural labor system premised on devaluing racialized labor. These histories are obscured by the myth of agricultural exceptionalism—the idea that agriculture is too different and important to be subject to the same rules and regulations as other industries. Agricultural exceptionalism naturalizes the racial capitalist system and informs state responses that privilege agricultural production through the exploitation of farmworkers, remaking “essential” farmworkers as sacrificial labor.     

Role of international politics on agri‐food trade: Evidence from US–Canada bilateral relations

A well‐functioning trade relationship between Canada and the United States is crucial to the economic vitality of the Canadian agri‐food industry. However, agri‐food trade is more susceptible than other sectors to political interventions. The Trump presidency has strained Canada–US relations and his trade policy actions have significantly increased trade restrictions and trade policy uncertainty and undermined the rules‐based global trading system. We examine the pattern of agri‐food trade between the two countries and find that the upward trajectory of bilateral agri‐food trade ended in 2013. Although this flatlining predates the Trump administration, we show that Trump increased trade policy uncertainty starting in 2017 and likely impacted further expansion of trade. We examine what might change under the Biden presidency and argue that the new administration is likely to restore strong relationships with allies and work to rebuild important international institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). Although protectionist forces will continue to impact bilateral agri‐food trade, we expect closer political ties between a Biden administration and the Canadian Prime Minister. This should have a positive effect on the Canadian agri‐food industry by reducing trade uncertainties, thereby increasing agri‐food trade between Canada and the United States.     

Short- and long-run exchange rate effects on forest product trade: Evidence from panel data

Impacts of exchange rates on international forest products trade are widely debated, but the empirical evidence regarding this issue is still inconclusive. Here, we report findings of the impacts of the exchange rates on the main forest product imports and exports of the US, from January 1989 to November 2004. Export data consisted of monthly series of the main products exported by the US to different countries. For imports we used monthly series of the principal products imported by the US from Canada, the major source of imports. The strongest evidence was obtained by pooling the data across countries and products. In the short run, exports were very elastic with respect to the exchange rate (−2.6), while imports were moderately elastic (1.2). In the long run, the elasticity decreased but remained significant (0.5 for both exports and imports). Appreciation of the US dollar tended to matter more than depreciation, but the hypothesis that the effect of exchange rate was symmetric could not be rejected.     

世界鳗鱼的生产和贸易分析

论文通过对世界鳗苗、活鳗和鳗鱼产品的生产和贸易的深入分析,发现鳗苗资源是制约鳗鱼产量增加的主要因素,并且影响鳗鱼产品的国际贸易。中国、台湾地区和日本是世界上主要的鳗鱼生产地区,亚洲和世界的鳗鱼出口变化主要受到中国鳗鱼出口变化的影响,亚洲和世界的鳗鱼进口变化主要由日本的鳗鱼进口变化决定。文章最后提出相关结论和建议,为发展我国鳗鱼生产和贸易提供相关的政策依据。     

The COVID-19 pandemic: Anticipating its effects on Canada's agricultural trade

With the deep recession now forecast for the world economy, trade can be expected to fall even more steeply. Agricultural trade will be less significantly affected, being insulated by its relatively low income elasticities of demand. However, a drop in the range of 12%–20% in real trade value should be expected. Canada can be expected to share in this, but, within agricultural exports, cereals will be least affected. This minimal expected impact to cereals stems partly from the risk of wheat export bans by Russia and Kazakhstan, due to increases in wheat prices. Livestock, pulses, and horticulture exporters can be expected to face a larger decline in trade prospects and revenues. An equally large threat, along with falling incomes in our trade partners, is their policy responses, particularly the potential increase in import restrictions. These may take the form of more costly inspections, tightened SPS and food safety regulations, and protectionist measures from competing domestic producers.     

我国水产品国际贸易顺差的成因及其影响

在分析我国水产品国际贸易状况的基础上,本文对导致我国水产品贸易顺差的原因进行了分析。并分析了水产品贸易顺差对我国渔业经济发展可能产生的影响,提出了降低巨额贸易顺差带来短期冲击的几点建议。     

Economic thoughts on COVID-19 for Canadian food processors

In this paper, I explore the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Canadian food processors. First, COVID-19 may have an impact on food processing economic activities because of supply and demand shocks. Second, the impact of COVID-19 on food processing may depend on the type of products and the size of the processors. The effects of measures taken by the government to flatten the epidemiological curve on the economic activities of the food processing sector are uncertain.     

中国渔业发展与水产品国际贸易

改革开放以来,中国渔业的发展举世瞩目,水产品总量居世界首位。作者从政策、方针、措施等方面阐述了中国渔业持续、快速、健康发展的根本原因及中国水产品在国际贸易方面取得的成就,同时也提出中国的渔业进入世界渔业大格局后应努力的方向     

President Biden's international trade agenda: Implications for the Canadian agrifood sector

The 4 years of the Trump administration was marked by a number of events and policies that affected the Canadian agrifood sector. Changes to preferential trade agreements, the collapse of the World Trade Organization's dispute settlement framework, increased domestic support for US farmers, and diplomatic tensions between the United States and China all shaped international trade flows and created an environment of policy uncertainty. The Biden administration will change course on several important trade policy issues. We discuss how these changes could affect the Canadian agrifood sector along a number of dimensions, including a return to multilateralism, (re)engagement in preferential trade agreements, and movements toward a less combative and more predictable trade policy agenda. We expect Canadian agrifood trade flows under the Biden administration to exceed what they would have been under a second Trump administration.     

水产食品安全标准与国际贸易的经济学分析

随着水产食品全球化供给的增加,以及近来食源性疾病的不断爆发,人们越来越关注水产食品安全问题,因此,许多国家实施了严格的水产食品安全标准来保护消费者。本文首先对水产食品安全标准在解决信息不对称和外部性问题时的作用进行了阐述,接着对不同国家因水产食品安全标准的不同而引发的水产食品贸易争端及结果进行了描述,最后就我国应如何面对由水产食品安全标准带来的贸易磨擦提出了建议。     

新冠肺炎疫情对全球食物安全的影响及对策

当前,新冠肺炎疫情已在全球扩散,许多本就因为冲突、自然灾害或气候变化而深陷食物不安全的国家和地区的防疫形势也日益严峻。虽然目前全球食物供给总体充足,食物价格稳定,但疫情的快速蔓延将给全球食物安全带来威胁。由于隔离和边境关闭,市场、供应链和贸易受到波及,全球食物的供给受到影响。食物流通渠道可能因运输中断和更加严格的检疫措施而受阻,运输成本和贸易成本增加、效率降低。一些国家为保障国内食物供应而采取限制出口的行为,将影响依赖于粮食进口的国家进口粮食,也不利于依赖于出口初级农产品的低收入发展中国家出口农产品。封锁措施带来的经济影响使居民收入和购买力下降,居民获得充足的营养食物变得更加困难。食物安全不再是一个区域性问题,而是一个需要共同应对的全球性问题,各国应当共同努力,加强合作和全球治理,对最弱势群体采取迅速的保护和援助措施。既要确保国内食物供应链的正常运行,同时,应该保持贸易开放,并利用和创新电子商务保障食物供应,保障全球粮食安全。     

Migrant farmworkers: Resisting and organising before,during and after COVID-19

Migrant farmworkers are a ubiquitous but invisibilised, expropriated and exploited component of the global agricultural economy. Their conditions took centre-stage during the COVID-19 pandemic. Fear of production disruption in the migrant labour-intensive sectors led to foreign workers being deemed ‘essential’ in many countries, and exceptional procedures and regulations were instituted that further increased their exploitation, illnesses and deaths. However, the pandemic has not merely exposed the long-established structures of racialised exploitation and expropriation in the domain of farm work. Although it exacerbated the precariousness of the living and working conditions defining the reality of migrant farm workers, there is evidence that the pandemic also strengthened farmworkers' individual and collective consciousness, along with forms of organisation and resistance. The symposium ‘Migrant Farmworkers: Resisting and Organizing before, during and after COVID-19’ explores two dimensions reflected in migrant farmworkers' realities during the pandemic. First, the contributions look at the general conditions defining power structures and material outcomes within the political economy of agriculture before and during the pandemic. Second, they explore the conditions under which resistance and solidarity emerged to question established structures of exploitation.     

小农的韧性：个体、社会与国家交织的建构性特征——云南省勐腊县河边村疫情下的生计

本文以云南省贫困村庄河边村为例,通过对河边村脱贫历程以及疫情背景下生计转型的案例呈现,从收入和消费的视角展现风险冲击下小农的生活和生计景观。在疫情的冲击下,河边村脱贫过程中形成的新业态受到巨大打击,但是农户以再农化和多元生计的弹性策略应对所遇到的风险,实现了疫情之下基本生活的稳定。处于现代市场经济条件下小农韧性的形成不是一个孤立的过程,而是在特定政治经济条件下所形成的某种状态。小农的韧性体现在小农的行为上,有着鲜明的农本主义色彩,但是这一特性却不是小农固有的,而是小农与国家和社会共同互动建构出的一个特定的政治和社会经济状态,小农的韧性不可能脱离个体、国家和社会不同方面的有机协同。     

新冠肺炎疫情防控下的国家治理

2020年突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情考验着中国国家治理能力,个人的生命安全成为核心关注点。疫情防控下的国家治理,需切实关注国家与个人之间的关系问题。个人和国家之间的合作或对抗,形构着个人与国家之间的信任机制。从国家和个人(社会)两个视角出发,以行政改革促进抗击疫情中"自下而上"的联防机制和"自上而下"的回应机制的建设,能够有效地在国家—个人之间建立起互信关系。现代国家唯有形成上下一体、有序统一的治理格局,才能有效应对疫情防控中的治理难题。     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击粮食安全:趋势、影响与应对

新冠肺炎疫情在全球加速扩散蔓延,引发全球粮食市场异常波动以及对中国粮食安全的担忧。疫情对后期全球粮食生产与贸易的影响将进一步加大,全球粮食市场波动有可能进一步升级。随着全球金融市场充分释放流动性,国际投机资本若炒作农产品市场,爆发类似2008年粮食危机的风险将越来越高。分析表明,中国粮食安全保障体系总体上可从容应对全球粮食市场波动升级的挑战,但大豆等农产品进口需防控国际市场波动风险。本文认为,要高度重视全球粮食市场波动的可能风险和挑战,必须加强监测、及早谋划,系统应对、综合施策。包括:有效管控输入性不稳定预期对国内粮食市场的干扰和冲击;进一步强化粮食生产能力建设;构建国家粮食安全保障风险治理体系;完善重要农产品储备体系;强化农产品全球供应链管理;加强国际粮食安全、贸易和投资政策协调。     

New plant engineering techniques,R&D investment and international trade

New plant engineering techniques (NPETs) may significantly improve both production and quality of foods. Some consumers and regulators around the world might be reluctant to accept such products and the global market penetration of these products may remain low. We develop a parsimonious economic model for R&D investment in food innovations to identify conditions under which NPET technology emerges in the context of international trade. The framework integrates consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for the new food, the uncertainty of R&D processes, the associated regulatory cost of approval, and the competition between domestic and foreign products. With generic applicability, the model enables the quantitative analysis of new foods that could be introduced in markets and then traded across borders. We apply the framework to a hypothetical case of apples improved with NPETs. Simulation results suggest that import bans and high values of sunk cost can reduce R&D investment in NPETs to suboptimal levels.