新冠肺炎疫情对全球食物安全的影响及对策

当前,新冠肺炎疫情已在全球扩散,许多本就因为冲突、自然灾害或气候变化而深陷食物不安全的国家和地区的防疫形势也日益严峻。虽然目前全球食物供给总体充足,食物价格稳定,但疫情的快速蔓延将给全球食物安全带来威胁。由于隔离和边境关闭,市场、供应链和贸易受到波及,全球食物的供给受到影响。食物流通渠道可能因运输中断和更加严格的检疫措施而受阻,运输成本和贸易成本增加、效率降低。一些国家为保障国内食物供应而采取限制出口的行为,将影响依赖于粮食进口的国家进口粮食,也不利于依赖于出口初级农产品的低收入发展中国家出口农产品。封锁措施带来的经济影响使居民收入和购买力下降,居民获得充足的营养食物变得更加困难。食物安全不再是一个区域性问题,而是一个需要共同应对的全球性问题,各国应当共同努力,加强合作和全球治理,对最弱势群体采取迅速的保护和援助措施。既要确保国内食物供应链的正常运行,同时,应该保持贸易开放,并利用和创新电子商务保障食物供应,保障全球粮食安全。     

Rural-urban gradient analysis of ecosystem services supply and demand dynamics

Urban regions are important places of ecosystem service demands and, at the same time, are the primary source of global environmental impacts. Although there is broad agreement on the importance of incorporating the concept of ecosystem services into policy strategies and decision-making, the lack of a standardized approach to quantifying ecosystem services at the landscape scale has hindered progress in this direction. Moreover, tradeoffs between ecosystem services and the supply/demand ratio of ecosystem services in urban landscapes have rarely been investigated. In our paper, we present a method to quantify and map the supply and demand of three essential provisioning services - energy, food, and water - along the rural-urban gradient of the eastern German region Leipzig-Halle. This urban region has experienced significant socio-economic dynamics and land use changes since the German reunification in 1990. The results show that both the demand and the supply of ecosystem services changed considerably during the time span under consideration (1990-2007). We identified an increasing supply/demand ratio of food and water but a decreasing supply/demand ratio of energy. In addition, the pattern of ecosystem demands shows a levelling of rural-urban gradients, reflecting profound modifications of traditional rural-urban relationships. The changes of ecosystem service supply gradients are determined more by land use intensity, such as the intensification of agricultural production, than by land cover changes such as urban sprawl. The comparison of supply/demand ratios and rural-urban patterns of ecosystem services can help decision-makers in landscape management in striving for a sustainable balance between resource supply and demand.     

Alternative Firm Strategies for Signaling Quality in the Food System

Dynamics in the global food system, coupled with rapid advance in agricultural biotechnology, have resulted in additional demands for capturing information and sharing information vertically within the supply chain. Food safety and quality characteristics are a cornerstone of this information demand. Events such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), genetic engineering and animal welfare concerns have laid the foundation for additional information need.
Managers of private firms within the food supply chain must decide how to respond to the situation. A crucial component of the problem is what and how to provide information to downstream customers as well as stipulate what and how information is received from upstream suppliers. Alternative signaling mechanisms abound. The choice among these alternative signals, or combination of alternatives, has both short- and long-run implications for the reputation of the firm, its products or services, and the efficiency with which it conducts its business. The signaling problem in the supply chain is bidirectional and has three critical dimensions: information asymmetry, incentive asymmetry, and arduous measurability. From a broad perspective, the choice set for signaling includes: strategies that rely on third-party protocols and procedures; differentiation through branding and reputation; indemnification strategies such as insurance, warranties, and bonding; and coordination strategies such as strategic alliances and vertical integration (intemalization). Each mechanism for signaling differentially influences the three dimensions of the signaling problem. No globally optimal strategy solution exists. Differentiation through branding and reputation mitigate the signaling problem relatively well compared with the other alternatives.     

The impact of COVID-19 on the grains and oilseeds sector

While downstream distribution and demand is likely to be hampered by the labor and income effects of COVID-19, Canada is expected to produce over 88 million tons of grains and oilseeds in 2020. Canadians have valid concerns about delays related to their changing needs as millions move their purchases from food services to retail groceries, but they should not worry about our overall supply of calories. Despite some shortages, the supply chains for flour and cooking oil are not likely to be blocked for an extended period. Learning from the coordinated needs of the BSE crisis in the beef sector, the federal government developed Value Chain Roundtables in 2003, including one for grains. These roundtables bring together government and industry to tackle the issues that face each sector's major needs, including food safety, transportation infrastructure, and market access. A working group made up of various roundtable members was set up specifically to deal with COVID-19-related supply chain challenges. This gives both industry and government a venue to attack any choke point or breakdown within our agrifood supply chains—the exact response we need at this time. A preestablished forum for discussion of critical issues at these roundtables, assuming the right players are active and present, cannot hurt, but it would useful for future planners and researchers if the federal government could clarify any positive impact they have.     

The War in Ukraine,Food Security and the Role for Europe

Food-security implications of the war in Ukraine are exacerbated by adverse weather events, spillover effects from the distortion of energy and fertiliser markets, and domestic policies that countries around the world have implemented in pursuit of food security. Estimates suggest that the cumulative effect of these channels in terms of restricting agricultural and food trade is in the order of over 10 times larger, and their cumulative effect on global food supply is on average three times more substantial than the direct agricultural supply disruptions in Ukraine. The latter, however, disproportionally impacts low-income countries that are particularly vulnerable to food supply shortages and price increases. In the case of the EU, although overall food availability is not at stake, food affordability for low-income households is a concern, especially when combined with rising prices of other essential goods, such as energy and transportation. To ensure the resilience of domestic and global food systems, the EU and its Member States should extend a set of already implemented policies, including better-targeted support for the low-income households in the region, implementation of trade facilitation measures via international cooperation, and support for agricultural production in the most vulnerable countries, and should also facilitate the restoration of Ukraine's lost agricultural assets.     

我国粮食损失的发生机制与治理举措分析

节粮减损对保障我国粮食安全具有重要意义。在我国粮食需求刚性增长,粮食增产难度不断加大的背景下分析了粮食产后损失现象的发生机制。研究发现,粮食从生产到消费经过农户阶段性储藏、企业储存储、物流运输和加工转化等产业链环节,导致粮食产后损失的主要因素是尚未建立现代化的粮食流通管理体制,粮食加工产业链发育程度低、粮食价格改革滞后、地方政府责任不清等。在此分析的基础上,从建设现代粮食流通体系、改善仓储物流设施,引导企业适度加工、促进副产物综合利用和理顺粮食价格引导居民合理消费等方面提出了治理措施,以减少粮食损失浪费,促进资源的有效利用。     

Food security and Canada's agricultural system challenged by COVID-19

The effect of COVID-19 on Canadian food security is examined from two different perspectives. COVID-19 creates a unique “income shock” that is expected to increase the prevalence of household food insecurity. This food insecurity can be measured by utilizing the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). More fundamentally, COVID-19 heightens household concern about the capacity of the Canadian food system to ensure food availability. Despite surges in demand and supply chain disruptions, we currently do not observe broad, rapid appreciation in food prices. This suggests that there is an adequate supply of food for the near term. There is less certainty over intermediate and longer time periods because so many factors are in flux, particularly the rate of increases in sicknesses and deaths across the country and globally. Data on these health factors and elements of the food supply chain are needed to predict beyond a short time frame. In this regard, we discuss three ongoing considerations—ease of capital flows, international exchange, and maintaining transportation—that will help ensure food availability in the longer run.     

Economic growth,convergence, and agricultural economics

After nearly two centuries of lagging behind the industrial countries, growth in many developing countries has surged since the early 1990s. This outperformance has major implications for almost all areas of agricultural economics and, if continued, will likely do so into the future. This article aims to identify the key ways in which the changes in rich and poor country growth rates matter for agricultural economists, as a basis for formulating better research agendas. A key impact arises through sharp increases in demand for agricultural resources as demand for livestock products increases. This changing structure of food demand has important implications for nutrition studies and policies, with the emergence of a double burden of malnutrition. On the supply side, growth in developing countries tends to increase domestic food supply, which is also boosted by increases in research and development spending. Growth in developing countries both stimulates and benefits from increases in infrastructure investment, evaluation of which requires new analytical tools. Negative impacts include the contribution of increased demand for livestock products to global greenhouse gas emissions. In terms of trade policy, growth in developing country is tending to lead to convergence of agricultural policies with the pattern of assistance seen in today's developed countries, raising concerns about the future need to deal with collective action problems, particularly those that increase the volatility of world prices.     

Can life cycle assessment be used to evaluate plant breeding objectives to improve supply chain sustainability? A worked example using porridge oats from the UK

The challenge for agricultural production in the 21st century is to produce sufficient high-quality food whilst minimizing impact. Life cycle assessment (LCA) can help by identifying the parts of a supply chain with the greatest environmental impact, and to determine which technologies – for example plant breeding – may be most appropriately employed to minimize negative impacts. A ‘plough-to-plate’ LCA of a porridge oat production chain was undertaken using data that corresponds to the inputs and outputs of an indicative supply chain. The greatest environmental impact of the porridge oats life cycle occurs in crop production and cooking. There are traits for oats that are available for manipulation by plant breeders, which can influence these areas; these include yield, nitrogen use efficiency and beta-glucan content. Therefore plant breeding may be a useful strategy for improving the sustainability of the crop. However LCA cannot be a definitive tool to guide plant breeding and therefore this approach needs to compliment others. Nevertheless this study highlights that porridge oat supply chain sustainability would benefit from an integrated effort stretching from the geneticist to consumer; a finding that is likely to be relevant to other food supply chains.     

农业供应链金融的数字化转型:理论与中国案例

随着农村电商、物联网和数字金融的快速发展,我国农业供应链金融开始向数字化转型,本文对数字化农业供应链金融模式进行理论和案例分析。研究发现,相比于传统农业供应链金融,数字化农业供应链金融借助于电商平台、物联网、大数据和云计算等数字应用和技术,能够降低金融服务过程中的交易成本,构建农村数字化信用评价体系,优化风险控制策略,最终提高金融供给效率。目前数字化农业供应链金融已形成互联网企业驱动和数字化农业企业驱动两种模式,但是仍面临资金成本高、数字足迹缺乏和信息孤岛等问题,限制其作用的发挥。未来应加快对传统农业的数字化改造,推动农村电商的发展,支持和规范涉农互联网金融机构的发展,最终完善数字化农业供应链金融模式,为发展中国家的农业供应链金融贡献创新模式。     

土地流转、规模经营对农业社会化服务需求的影响分析*——基于江汉平原393个水稻种植大户的调查

［目的］在土地流转加快、农业适度规模经营不断推进背景下,研究种植大户农业社会化服务的需求状况及其影响因素对现代农业发展意义重大。［方法］文章以江汉平原水稻种植大户为研究对象,采用排序模型重点考察土地流转、规模经营因素对农资服务、技术服务、信息服务、农业贷款、基础设施、农业保险、加工销售等7种农业社会化服务需求的影响。［结果］江汉平原农业社会化服务需求总量还有进一步提升的空间; 土地流转年限、土地规模对农业社会化服务需求有着积极影响; 土地流转价格、土地细碎化程度对农业社会化服务需求产生消极影响。［结论］建议政府加快农业社会化服务供给侧结构性改革,完善土地流转市场,规范土地流转方式,降低土地细碎化程度,推进适度规模经营。     

The new economic geography of land use change: Supply chain configurations and land use in the Brazilian Amazon

In this paper we present a framework for understanding regional land use processes by incorporating the concept of agglomeration economies into agricultural frontier theory. We show that agricultural firms can obtain positive externalities from locating in close proximity to other agricultural firms, leading to agglomeration economies. Agglomeration economies lead to high levels of competition and diversity within a local agricultural supply chain and influence local prices, information flows, and private enforcement of environmental institutions. We use the theory of agglomeration economies to understand the development of soybean production in two counties along the Santarém-Cuiaba (BR-163) highway in the Brazilian Amazon: Santarém, Pará and Sorriso, Mato Grosso. We conclude that differences in environmental and land tenure institutions influenced the occurrence of agglomeration economies in these two counties, which in turn affected the total factor productivity of soy in each region. In particular, the supply chain became extremely competitive and diverse in Sorriso where few environmental regulations existed, while environmental restrictions reduced the diversification of the supply chain in Santarém. The presence of a soy agglomeration economy in Sorriso spurred innovation, increased productivity, and led to extremely rapid soy expansion in that county, while the monopolistic supply chain in Santarém reduced producers’ access to land and capital and impeded soy expansion.     

Market structure and the demand for veterinary services in India

The livestock sector is emerging as one of the fastest growing agricultural sub‐sectors in India and the expectations are that this growth could further accelerate due to growing incomes and the high income elasticity of demand for livestock products. Given the size and relatively equitable distribution of livestock in India, this presents an excellent opportunity for the country to boost rural incomes and accelerate the pace of poverty reduction. But, successful capitalisation of such opportunities requires a policy regime that facilitates growth in productivity at the farm level as well as in the processing sector. The productive potential of animals depends crucially on the quality of nutrition, genetic material and the animal health system, and on all these counts, India has a poor record. The public sector continues to be the primary provider of veterinary services, and the deteriorating fiscal situation of most state governments is making it extremely difficult to either expand the reach of these services or improve the quality of service delivery. Although, on efficiency grounds, there is good rationale for commercialised delivery of these services, serious concerns prevail in India about the equity implications of private sector delivery or full cost recovery within the government system. Evaluation of the desirability of user fees or private delivery of livestock services requires an understanding of the factors influencing the demand for these services. This paper examines the nature of demand for veterinary services in three states of India and presents first estimates of demand elasticities for veterinary services. The results indicate that price is not an important determinant of the decision to use these services. Also, practically no variation is found in price elasticities across income groups. These results suggest that the fears of sharp declines in the use of these services as a result of full cost recovery and/or private sector delivery are unfounded.     

我国农产品供应链协同管理的研究进展

[目的]文章对农产品供应链协同管理在我国以往的研究进展进行综述,分析出当前研究中可能存在的不足,探讨该领域未来可能的研究发展方向,以期丰富我国农产品供应链协同领域的研究。[方法]该文应用比较分析法和归纳分析法,从农产品供应链协同与食品质量安全、协同的影响因素、协同中的收益分配问题和协同中信息技术的应用4个方面对该领域的研究进行综述与讨论。[结果]农产品供应链协同管理研究初期主要为理论探讨和定性的分析,现阶段以定量研究方法为主,目前该领域的研究中存在研究方法运用单一化、研究主体简单化和信息技术应用研究不足等问题。[结论]该文研究认为未来我国农产品供应链协同管理可能的研究方向为:(1)绿色可持续农产品供应链协同研究;(2)农产品供应链协同中信息技术应用研究:(3)农产品供应链协同研究主体多样化的发展趋势。     

Effect of information formats on information services: analysis of four selected agricultural commodities in the USA

We analyze sources of information in agricultural markets to understand patterns of demand for decision support services and the division of labor in the supply of these services. Information formatting—qualitative variation that determines accessibility and relevance of information in specific contexts—prohibits universal access to informational content. Information formats give rise to both transaction costs and complementarities reflected in patterns of information exchange in commodity systems. Controlling for actors' structural roles and levels of education, we develop a hedonic model of information demand such that actors seek information that is formatted to meet their needs and capabilities. Employing survey data, we explain elements of observed patterns of information exchange in four commodity systems in the USA. Results point to opportunities to expand our understanding of socioeconomic processes underlying production and consumption of decision support.     

供给侧结构性改革推进四川省玉米产业转型发展策略

[目的]随着中国粮食产量的"十二连增",国内农业生产的主要矛盾也逐步由总量不足转向结构性矛盾,其中玉米产业面临的矛盾尤为突出,玉米产业结构调整是我国农业供给侧结构性改革推进中的首要任务。四川既是全国玉米生产的重要省份,也是玉米消费大省,如何推进玉米产业供给侧结构性改革、实现产业转型发展还有待于思考。[方法]文章从供需平衡、供给结构、供给效益和供给效率4个角度分析了四川玉米产业供给侧的特征,同时从要素供给、社会化服务和产业链3个方面分析了影响四川玉米产业发展的制约因素。[结果]四川玉米消费结构呈现多元变化,从口粮消费为主转变为以饲料、工业加工消费为主;草食畜牧业发展迅速,饲用作物需求量增大;农业科技支撑力度明显,玉米育种成就突出。[结论]提出从优化品种结构、推行种养循环、培育新型经营主体、拓展产业链等方面推进四川玉米产业的转型升级。     

Food supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper provides an early assessment of the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for food supply chains and supply chain resilience. The effects of demand-side shocks on food supply chains are discussed, including consumer panic buying behaviors with respect to key items, and the sudden change in consumption patterns away from the food service sector to meals prepared and consumed at home. Potential supply-side disruptions to food supply chains are assessed, including labor shortages, disruptions to transportation networks, and “thickening” of the Canada–U.S. border with respect to the movement of goods. Finally, the paper considers whether the COVID-19 pandemic will have longer-lasting effects on the nature of food supply chains, including the growth of the online grocery delivery sector, and the extent to which consumers will prioritize “local” food supply chains.     

Tracing the Effects of Agricultural Commodity Prices and Food Costs

We estimate a system of product and input-demand equations for food-processing industries to trace the links among farm commodity prices, food-processing costs, and food prices. Disembodied technical change, which likely reflects increasing consumer demand for convenience and product variety, has sharply reduced agricultural materials demand relative to most other food-processing inputs. This implies weakening impacts of farm price shocks on food prices. But improving quality and falling relative prices for agricultural inputs, in combination with increasing factor substitution, has counteracted these forces to encourage greater usage of agricultural inputs in food processing, and limit these trends.     

农产品供应链的组织模式与食品安全

本文以农产品供应链为研究对象,在对湖北、广东、浙江和山东等地的多种供应链组织模式进行调研的基础上,比较分析了各种组织模式的影响因素及其对食品安全的作用,认为供应链的一体化程度越高其提供产品的质量安全水平越高,进而提出了我国食品安全管理的有益建议.     

家庭农场与农户小规模农地对农业技术服务需求行为差异及影响因素

［目的］在农业的发展过程中,以集约化土地种植为主的新型经营主体将极大地促进农业的现代化发展,这是新型的农业经营主体追求效益的最大化的选择性行为,也是政府主导和扶持的新型农民的政策缩影。文章探讨现代农业发展的背景下不同种植规模经营主体对于农业技术服务的需求行为差异和影响因素。［方法］以新疆棉区的1 043户小规模种植农户和683户家庭农场主的调查数据为例,对以家庭农场（种植面积267hm2及以上）为例的新型农业经营主体与传统农户小规模农地对农业技术服务需求行为运用二元Logistic模型进行实证分析。［结果］(1)家庭耕地面积是影响家庭农场对农业技术服务需求行为的主要因素; 而文化程度、是否参加农业合作社、村里是否有农业合作社是家庭农场对农业技术服务需求行为的影响程度最大的。(2)而参加农业技术培训次数是影响农户小规模农地对农业技术服务需求行为的主要因素; 是否参加农业技术培训是农户小规模农地对农业技术服务需求行为的影响程度最大的。［结论］（1）农业技术服供给机构应根据农户经营种植的耕地面积,对用户进行分类管理。（2）农业技术服务机构应协同基层部门加大对农业技术服务的宣传力度,全面提升种植农户的认知程度。（3）培育新型农业经营主体,为农业技术服务培育不同规模需求的优良农户。