Economic thoughts on COVID-19 for Canadian food processors

In this paper, I explore the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Canadian food processors. First, COVID-19 may have an impact on food processing economic activities because of supply and demand shocks. Second, the impact of COVID-19 on food processing may depend on the type of products and the size of the processors. The effects of measures taken by the government to flatten the epidemiological curve on the economic activities of the food processing sector are uncertain.     

Economic thoughts on the potential implications of COVID-19 on the Canadian dairy and poultry sectors

The dumping of milk, the offering of hospitality size goods in grocery stores, and the closure of processing facilities are examples of the disruptions caused by the pandemic to the dairy, poultry, and egg sectors. These supply management sectors, however, are more resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 than other sectors as producers are generally more financially stable, losses are pooled, and production/marketing efforts are coordinated.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and agriculture: Short- and long-run implications for international trade relations

The COVID-19 pandemic has put unprecedented strain on food supply chains. Given the ever-increasing degree of globalization, those supply chains very often stretch across international borders. In the short run, countries have largely been working to keep those supply chains intact and operating efficiently so that panic buying is cooled and shifts in consumption habits arising from personal isolation can be accommodated. Once the crisis has passed, based on what has been learned regarding the international food system's resilience, governments may wish to strengthen institutions that govern international trade. On the other hand, based on their COVID-19 experience, governments may feel that they are too dependent on foreign sources of supply and may wish to reverse the impacts of globalization on their food systems. As a result, they may become increasingly isolationist, eschewing international cooperation. Which of these opposing forces will prevail may depend on the paths economies follow after the disequilibrium precipitated by the pandemic.     

Essential agriculture,sacrificial labor,and the COVID-19 pandemic in the US South

As farmworkers were reframed as “essential” workers during the COVID-19 pandemic, US growers demanded unfettered access to foreign farm labor. After initially announcing a freeze on all immigration processing, the Trump administration bowed to farmers' demands, granting a single exception for agricultural guestworkers under the H-2A visa program. Through a focus on H-2A farmworkers in Georgia, this paper highlights how the pandemic exacerbated farm labor conditions in the US South. The author interrogates these conditions through the lens of racial capitalism, exposing the legacies of plantation political economies and a longstanding agricultural labor system premised on devaluing racialized labor. These histories are obscured by the myth of agricultural exceptionalism—the idea that agriculture is too different and important to be subject to the same rules and regulations as other industries. Agricultural exceptionalism naturalizes the racial capitalist system and informs state responses that privilege agricultural production through the exploitation of farmworkers, remaking “essential” farmworkers as sacrificial labor.     

Modeling climate change and agriculture: an introduction to the special issue

This issue of Agricultural Economics is a special issue containing articles on model performance in assessing the effects of climate change, bioenergy policy, and socioeconomics on agriculture. The contributions present results from a global economic model intercomparison activity undertaken as part of the AgMIP Project ( www.agmip.org ). The origins of the comparison activities can be traced to a project that was organized by the OECD in late 2010 to compare results from three models. The current phase of the research includes 10 models and was designed in part to support of the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). The special issue includes seven peer‐reviewed articles that present thematic results from a range of modeling strategies, with partial and general equilibrium modeling as a high level distinction but a myriad of differences within these two model types. A central common element is harmonization on biophysical effects using crop models and socioeconomic effects using drivers from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways developed as part of the AR5 process. The special issue provides broad insights into how the modeling communities approached the interactions of climate, socioeconomics, bioenergy policy on agricultural outcomes, including land use, prices, consumption, and production.     

Introduction to the special issue on spatial analysis for agricultural economists

The goal of this special issue is to introduce agricultural economists to new analytical approaches involving spatial data. This paper provides a brief history of the special issue and an introduction to von Thünen's model of the determinants of land use and rent that underlies all spatial analysis.     

Gender and agriculture in sub‐Saharan Africa: introduction to the special issue

This special issue contributes to the literature on gender differences in sub‐Saharan African agriculture primarily by using new and innovative micro‐data. The first six articles have a strong focus on understanding the extent and drivers of gender differences in land productivity and use data from nationally representative household surveys that are implemented under the Living Standards Measurement Study‐Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS‐ISA) initiative. The LSMS‐ISA data are multi‐topic, with geo‐referenced household and plot locations, and information on production and identity of managers and owners at the plot level. The last two articles in the volume rely on in‐depth quantitative and qualitative case study data, which, in combination with the nationally representative data, allow for greater insights into the extent and correlates of gender differences in sub‐Saharan African agriculture. While there does seem to be persistent evidence of gender gaps, the studies find the sources of these gaps to vary within and across countries. This makes designing policies to address gender gaps more challenging, yet of crucial importance. What is clear is that the failure to directly and explicitly address the underlying causes of the disparities is likely to end up exacerbating the observed gender gaps.     

Potential implications of COVID-19 on the Canadian pork industry

Canada and the United States have strong economic ties and form part of an integrated North American pork industry. Canada's pork industry is export-oriented, and the United States represents a key market for both live pigs and pork. Pork value chain stakeholders include input suppliers, pig producers, transportation companies, slaughter plants, wholesalers, and retailers. There are three overriding areas of concern for the Canadian pork industry with respect to potential impacts of the current pandemic (COVID-19). The first is Canada/US trade and the ability to continue exporting Canadian live pigs and pork to the United States. The second is labor and the impact of potential absenteeism on all sectors of the pork value chain. The third is global trade, because Canada's pork industry relies heavily on exporting pork to markets around the world.     

The COVID-19 pandemic: Anticipating its effects on Canada's agricultural trade

With the deep recession now forecast for the world economy, trade can be expected to fall even more steeply. Agricultural trade will be less significantly affected, being insulated by its relatively low income elasticities of demand. However, a drop in the range of 12%–20% in real trade value should be expected. Canada can be expected to share in this, but, within agricultural exports, cereals will be least affected. This minimal expected impact to cereals stems partly from the risk of wheat export bans by Russia and Kazakhstan, due to increases in wheat prices. Livestock, pulses, and horticulture exporters can be expected to face a larger decline in trade prospects and revenues. An equally large threat, along with falling incomes in our trade partners, is their policy responses, particularly the potential increase in import restrictions. These may take the form of more costly inspections, tightened SPS and food safety regulations, and protectionist measures from competing domestic producers.     

Introduction to the special issue on the role of nonfarm income in poverty reduction: evidence from Asia and East Africa

In this special issue, we present seven studies that collectively attempt to investigate the role of non‐farm income in long‐term and short‐term poverty reduction in Asia and Africa. The first four studies out of the seven use long‐term panel data over two decades in the Philippines, Thailand, Bangladesh, and India. These studies show drastic increases in non‐farm income shares and corresponding declines in poverty levels over time, especially in the Philippines and Thailand. Education levels of household members and returns to education also increased significantly in these countries. The remaining three studies use cross‐sectional and short‐term panel data from Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. These African studies show high proportions of poor households and low shares of non‐farm income that are somewhat comparable to the situation in the 1980s described in the Asian studies. Without the Green Revolution that provided stable farm income and potential financial resources to invest in children' education in Asia, it is not clear if African farm households can follow the Asian examples.     

COVID-19 and the Canadian cattle/beef sector: Some preliminary analysis

Canada's cattle/beef sector has already weathered a shock after a 2003 case of BSE resulted in closed borders and industry restructuring. Now, the sector has to adjust to similar shocks due to COVID-19. This paper examines the supply chain from the consumer up to the cow–calf producer by considering consumer reactions, labor market constraints, and supply response. A quarterly market model of North American cattle and beef markets is used to examine price and revenue impacts associated with the market disruptions. Depending on the scenario, there is considerable price and revenue suppression at all levels of the market.     

The impact of COVID-19 on food retail and food service in Canada: Preliminary assessment

COVID-19 has imposed a series of unique challenges on the food retail and food service sectors in Canada. Almost overnight, the roughly 30% of the food dollar that Canadians have been spending on food away from home has shifted to retail.     

Introduction to the policy articles on Trump to Biden: Implications for Canadian Agriculture

President Biden was sworn in on January 20, 2021 after a 4‐year term by President Trump. Certainly, Trump's norm breaking presidency impacted Canada in significant ways and the agricultural sector was no exception. In this issue, we have a set of four short articles discussing the possible implications on Canadian agriculture of transitioning from a Trump to Biden presidency. Issues related to Canada‐U.S. agricultural trade, political norms and uncertainty, U.S. domestic support, participation in trade agreements, and U.S.‐China relations are all considered.     

Introduction to the special issue “small farms: decline or persistence?”

This issue of Agricultural Economics contains articles from a seminar entitled “Small Farms: Decline or Persistence?” held at the University of Kent. This issue includes nine papers selected from more than 50 papers presented at the seminar. Articles published use a range of econometric and simulation methods to provide a suite of case studies. Topics studied range from such fundamental issues as what constitutes a small farm to recent trends in the diversification of small farms and their integration into modern globalized food chains. Several papers emphasize the link between agricultural policy development and the future of small farms.     

基于粮食安全视角的海洋农业发展价值分析

论文从粮食安全的视角分析了我国陆上粮食生产面临的挑战,阐释了现代食物观,认为维护我国粮食安全需要节流开源发展海洋农业,构建现代食物观,通过多种途径维护食物安全;论文阐述了海洋农业的基础地位,指出了其在完善农业产业链条、维护粮食安全体系完整等方面的基础性价值,并提出了发展我国海洋农业的政策建议。