FINANCIAL EDUCATION AND BEHAVIORAL FINANCE: NEW INSIGHTS INTO THE ROLE OF INFORMATION IN FINANCIAL DECISIONS

Recent empirical evidence based on surveys and experimental activities within the fields of behavioral finance and financial education has offered economists new empirically based insights into how individuals use information in making financial decisions. Specifically, the importance of information in financial decisions may be reduced or eliminated by psychological aspects of the individual, such as a state of overconfidence that is individual or shared with a group, or by the individual's limited ability to process complex and abundant information. This paper aims to complement this emerging body of literature by studying how individuals perceive and process information when making financial decisions. We review these contributions and suggest a number of broad guidelines that can provide a framework for future discussion of this topic within financial decision theory.     

A SURVEY OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LITERATURE OF FINANCE AND GROWTH

Abstract.  This paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of financial development and economic growth. The survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of financial development in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables. Although the positive role of finance on growth has become a stylized fact, there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies. Several key issues unresolved in the literature are highlighted. The paper also points to several directions for future research.     

FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND INTERGOVERNMENTAL RELATIONS: AN ANALYSIS OF FEDERAL VERSUS STATE EDUCATION FINANCE IN MEXICO

While decentralization is on the forefront of the reform agenda of many developing countries, few studies have performed empirical analysis to provide a holistic picture of the important fiscal, efficiency, and equity issues. Specifically, decentralization nearly always involves fiscal and administrative decisions by both national and sub-national governments, as well as intricate intergovernmental relations. Here, two empirical models are presented for the Mexican primary and secondary education sector. The first analyzes the efficiency-equity trade-off implicit the Mexican Federal Government's educational fiscal transfers to states. Unlike most similar analyses, this model analyzes the distribution of outcomes not simply expenditures. The second model analyzes the relative productivity of separate expenditures by the Federal and state governments before Mexico's recent educational decentralization legislation. The findings show that before the decentralization, the Federal Government exhibited some concern for equity, but that in doing so also treated states unequally according to criteria that have little to do with either efficiency or equity. In addition, the results show that the Federal Government may indeed have been the more efficient provider of primary and secondary education, raising concern for the fiscal and administrative relationship set up by the decentralization legislation: the Federal Government will continue to pay, while the states have gained relative autonomy over expenditures.     

CAPITALIZATION AND THE THEORY OF LOCAL PUBLIC FINANCE: AN INTERPRETIVE ESSAY

Abstract. The Tiebout hypothesis that consumer mobility and interjurisdictional competition leads to efficient provision of local services has provoked much controversy and debate in recent years. This article summarizes the opposing and conflicting viewpoints on this subject and presents a synthesis of the theoretical and empirical literature. The basic conclusion of this literature is that only under very restrictive assumptions will foot-voting and interjurisdictional competition ensure allocative efficiency in the local public sector. Nevertheless, the Tiebout mechanism offers important insights for public policy debates on the assignment of taxes and services and the design of equalization grants. Oates' suggestion that capitalization of fiscal differentials into residential property values provides an empirical test of the Tiebout hypothesis also generated an intense debate on the theoretical validity of this procedure and a heightened interest in its empirical applications. This debate is evaluated and an overview is given of the leading empirical approaches to test the efficiency and equity implications of the Tiebout mechanism. Controversial empirical issues such as the choice of the tax price term, the level of aggregation and econometric estimation problems are highlighted in this part of the survey.     

THE VERY RAPID INCREASE OF JAPANESE TOURISTS ABROAD AND THE ROLE OF NATIONAL WEALTH

The strong performance of the Japanese economy, rising stock and land prices in Japan, as well as the strong yen, have prompted Japanese to travel abroad in ever increasing numbers in recent years. Despite several obstacles against growth, such as limited vacation time for employees of Japanese corporations, relatively expensive airline tickets, capacity limitations of international airports in Japan, booming resort development in Japan itself, and imposed constraints on Japanese direct investment abroad, Japanese travelers abroad, the majority of whom are tourists, increased from less than five million in 1985 to almost 10 million in 1989. The traditional demand function based on income and price may not explain all of the growth of Japanese overseas tourism, since some of the increase in Japanese travelers may stem from increases in expected future income based on increased wealth. This wealth effect hypothesis is tested using a log-linear regression model. It is found that wealth is a better predictor of overseas tourism levels than income. The effect of wealth increases on overseas tourism is also found to have a lag time of about one year. For this reason, it is proposed that the slowing in the Japanese economy this year will negatively impact Japanese overseas tourism next year.     

STOCK‐FLOW INTERACTIONS,DISEQUILIBRIUM MACROECONOMICS AND THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC POLICY

This paper presents the ‘KMGT’ (Keynes–Metzler–Goodwin–Tobin) portfolio model and studies its stability properties. The approach to macrodynamic modelling taken here extends the KMG model of Chiarella and Flaschel (2000) , focusing in particular on the incorporation of financial markets and policy issues. The original KMG model considered three asset markets (equities, bonds and money) but depicted them in a rudimentary way so that they had little influence on the real side of the model. The only financial market influencing the real side of the economy was the money market (via an LM curve theory of interest). Here Tobin's portfolio choice theory models the demand for each asset in such a way that the total amount of assets that households want to hold equals their net wealth, which is a stock constraint attached to portfolio choice. There is also a flow constraint, that the net amount of assets accumulated (liabilities issued) by one sector must equal its net savings (expenditures). The Tobinian macroeconomic portfolio approach characterizes the potential for financial market instability, focusing on the interconnectedness of all three markets. The paper goes on to study the potential for labour market and fiscal policies to stabilize unstable macroeconomies.     

MANUFACTURING REFORM AND THE CHANGING ROLE OF THE PRODUCTION SUPERVISOR: THE CASE OF THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY*

This research assesses current changes in the nature of the supervisory role in the automobile industry. It locates these changes in the context of a transition from mass production to lean or just-in-time production. the emergence of a supervisory role, with supervisors performing critical functions as effective managers of integrated work areas is explored by focusing on two lean producers, Nissan UK and Mazda's Flat Rock plant in the US. Noting the increased responsibility of the supervisor under lean production, the extent of the supervisors’enhanced status and authority are considered. However, a case study of an established vehicle producer in the UK, involving interviews with a sample of forty supervisors draws out the structural and organizational difficulties faced by existing manufacturers in their attempts to reformulate the role of the supervisor.     

THE STATE GIVETH AND THE STATE TAKETH AWAY: SUPPORTING THE RESEARCH-BASED PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY IN EUROPE AND THE UK

The European research-based pharmaceutical industry has been declining relative to its US counterpart for more than a decade. It remains a substantial and successful industry, and the UK continues to be a particular success story, but many challenges lie ahead in an increasingly competitive global environment. Recent attempts to reinvigorate and support pharmaceutical and biotech research and development have been numerous, and in the UK now include the R&D tax credit. But it is the operating environment and the structure of the market for pharmaceuticals that represent the biggest challenges for the industry and policy-makers.     

THE ROLE OF FEES IN PATENT SYSTEMS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

This paper reviews the economic literature on the role of fees in patent systems. Two main research questions are usually addressed: the impact of patent fees on the behavior of applicants and the question of optimal fees. Studies in the former group confirm that a range of fees affect the behavior of applicants and suggest that a patent is an inelastic good. Studies in the latter group provide grounds for both low and high application (or pre‐grant) fees and renewal (or post‐grant) fees, depending on the structural context and policy objectives. The paper also presents new stylized facts on patent fees of 30 patent offices worldwide. It is shown that application fees are generally lower than renewal fees, and renewal fees increase more than proportionally with patent age.     

CHAMPIONS OF CHANGE AND STRATEGIC SHIFTS: THE ROLE OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL CHANGE ADVOCATES*

Change advocates who participate in the process of strategy-making can play an important role in enabling organizational adaptation. To examine the nature of this role, this article investigates the influence on strategic shifts of two such participants - new members of the top management team and management consultants. Empirical findings suggest that managers see these two types of change agents as having two different kinds of influence on strategic shifts. Specifically, the change agent role of management consultants is viewed as one that creates pressure for change by helping to shape new managerial perspectives of the environment. In contrast, the change agent role of new members of the top management team is viewed as one that counteracts inertial forces that may block the implementation of change. These results suggest that management consultants may be much more useful in stimulating changes in the ways executives think about their environment than they are in implementing radical strategic changes. To overcome institutional resistance to extreme strategic shifts, organizations may need to resort to stronger political and symbolic actions, such as promoting or hiring new top executives in key leadership roles.     

AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL DURATION MODELS IN FINANCE: A SURVEY OF THE THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

Abstract.  This paper provides an up-to-date survey of the main theoretical developments in autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) modeling and empirical studies using financial data. First, we discuss the properties of the standard ACD specification and its extensions, existing diagnostic tests, and joint models for the arrival times of events and some market characteristics. Then, we present the empirical applications of ACD models to different types of events, and identify possible directions for future research.     

INTERPRETING EVENT CAUSES: THE COMPLEMENTARY ROLE OF CATEGORIZATION AND ATTRIBUTION PROCESSES

This study examined the complementary role categorization and attribution processes play in managers’interpretations of event causes. Categorization theory suggests that events with distinctive internal or external causes should be interpreted, respectively, as internal and external. Attribution theory and research on self-serving attributions, on the other hand, suggest that events with positive outcomes should be attributed to internal causes and events with negative outcomes to external causes. Study results showed a very significant interaction between distinctiveness of event causes (internal-external) and the valence of event outcomes (positive-negative). This interaction suggests that managers use categorization processes to interpret positive events, but more effortful attributional processes to interpret events with negative outcomes. There also was evidence of self-serving attributional biases in managers’interpretations of event causes, especially events with equivocal causes. Study findings appear to be unaffected by managerial position or background. We discuss the contribution this study makes to extant research and its implications for future research.     

THE IMF: A BIRD'S EYE VIEW OF ITS ROLE AND OPERATIONS

Abstract The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the world's premier international financial institution with 184 member countries and active programmes in a significant number of them at any one time. The Fund attracts a great deal of attention, much of it critical. But the discussion is often polemic in style. Strongly held, but frequently opposing, views are expressed. This survey attempts to examine, in an objective way, the theory and evidence relating to the Fund's operations. Many aspects of the empirical research are relatively recent and a universal consensus is yet to emerge; as a consequence there is scope for disagreement to persist. However, the research is also gradually clarifying many important issues. The format for the survey is to examine the life cycle of IMF arrangements. What makes a country turn to the Fund for assistance? Should the IMF be lending? What influences the outcome of negotiations and the design of programmes? Are IMF programmes effective? And why do some countries make prolonged use of IMF resources? For completeness there is also some discussion of the history of the IMF, the extent to which Fund policies have been influenced by advances in economic theory and the Fund's systemic role. Important organisational and governance issues are also covered briefly. Although primarily adopting an economist's perspective, the survey reflects the growing recognition that in order to understand the IMF's operations, economics has to be combined with politics. Examining the IMF is an exercise in applied political economy.     

ETHNIC DIVERSITY,PUBLIC SPENDING,AND INDIVIDUAL SUPPORT FOR THE WELFARE STATE: A REVIEW OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

We review the empirical literature that studies the effect of ethnic diversity on public spending and on individual support for the welfare state. The survey puts a particular focus on the fast‐growing literature that uses experiments to study the effects of ethnic diversity. Many of these studies have appeared since the pioneering survey by Alesina and La Ferrara and have not been covered by a survey before.