Linking foresight and sustainability: An integral approach

This paper looks at the growing confluence between sustainability thinking and futures thinking. Drawing on developments based on Integral Theory, it then looks at how an emerging Integral Sustainability (IS) promises to enhance theory and practice in the sustainability field. In particular, the paper looks at how IS makes sense of sustainability challenges from an ontological position based on perspectives in place of objects (and their systems). A framework is outlined for understanding how various sustainability perspectives are constructed. This framework is then used to analyse a range of general perspectives the authors have identified that relate to nuclear power as a response to climate change. The strength of the IS approach is considered in the context of ongoing debate in Australia over the appropriateness of developing a local nuclear power industry as a response to climate change.     

Exploring the impact of technology foresight studies on innovation: Case of BRIC countries

This paper explores technology foresight activities in the BRIC countries. The article starts from recent trends in foresight research, including the generation models, methodologies, connections with innovation, and influence of globalization. The case analysis section will focus on the development of technology foresight activities in BRICs. Some common technology foresight issues and characteristics are identified and summarized for the BRICs and other emerging countries.     

After the Green Revolution Sustainable and equitable agricultural development

Despite impressive results, the Green Revolution has encountered major problems of equity, stability and sustainability, calling for a ‘new phase’ of agricultural research and development. In this article four indicators of agricultural performance—productivity, stability, sustainability and equitability —are defined. Agro-ecosystems are described as a hierarchy ascending from the level of the individual plant or animal all the way to national systems linked by international trade, and it is argued that development cannot be based on any one level. This is demonstrated with a discussion of international constraints on sustainable and equitable development, the necessary national policies, and the needs of rural households. In conclusion, the article summarizes the research and development priorities for the new phase of development.     

Productivity Growth and Sustainability in Post-Green Revolution Agriculture: The Case of the Indian and Pakistan Punjabs

This article attempts to determine the long-term productivityand sustainability of irrigated agriculture in the Indian andPakistan Punjabs by measuring trends in total factor productivityfor production systems in both states since the advent of theGreen Revolution. These measurements over time and across systemshave resulted in three major findings. First, there were widespatial and temporal variations between the two Punjabs. Althoughoutput growth and crop yields were much higher in the IndianPunjab, productivity growth was higher by only a small margin.Moreover, the lowest growth in productivity took place duringthe initial Green Revolution period (as opposed to the laterintensification and post–Green Revolution periods) andin the wheat-rice system in both states. The time lag betweenadoption of Green Revolution technologies and realization ofproductivity gains is related to learning-induced efficiencygains, better utilization of capital investments over time,and problems with the standard methods of productivity measurementthat downwardly bias estimates, particularly during the GreenRevolution period. Second, input growth accounted for most ofthe output growth in both Punjabs during the period under study.Third, intensification, especially in the wheat-rice system,resulted in resource degradation in both Punjabs. Data fromPakistan show that resource degradation reduced overall productivitygrowth from technical change and from education and infrastructureinvestment by one-third. These findings imply the need for policiesthat promote agricultural productivity and sustainability throughpublic investments in education, roads, and research and extension;and that reduce resource degradation by decreasing or eliminatingsubsidies that encourage intensification of inputs.      

Indigenous sustainable finance as a research field: A systematic literature review on indigenising ESG,sustainability and indigenous community practices

Sustainable finance research has come into its own as an established area in the finance literature. The increased awareness of sustainability and global concerns around environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues, particularly among institutional investors, has catalysed a shift towards greater research and publications in this area. Accompanying this is the emerging body of work being produced on indigenous investments and indigenous community practices. These nascent strands of literature tell a story of the shift that is taking place within the finance field. To chart this shift and create a harmonised view of these bodies of work, this paper conducts a systematic literature review of the significant nexus between sustainable investments and indigenous approaches to sustainability. We present a framework for conceptualising and characterising the various stands of literature and, in so doing, make the case for Indigenous Sustainable Finance (ISF) as a distinct disciplinary field. This paper argues that ISF is distinct from mainstream sustainable finance and other social and management sciences and constitutes a legitimate, well-defined sub-field of research in its own right.     

The social shaping approach to technology foresight

The social shaping of technology (SST) approach has been developed as a response and extension to the ideas of techno-economic rationality and linear conceptions of technology development and its consequences. The SST approach seems especially promising in areas of technology where visions are manifold, societal interests conflicting, and applications and markets are non-existing or still under construction. The emerging high technology areas and several areas of more sustainable development like organic food production and renewable energy are examples of this kind, where techno-economic networks are unstable or under construction and social and environmental potentials and risks difficult, if not impossible to assess. The paper explores the potential of a social shaping of technology approach to technology foresight within such technology areas and presents the methodological aspects herein: structure versus contingency, actor-network approach, laboratory programmes, techno-economic networks, actor worlds, development arenas. Experiences based on a recent Danish green technology foresight project concerned with environmental risks and opportunities related to nano-, bio- and ICT-technologies and foresight activities in relation to food are used as empirical references.     

Towards better participatory processes in technology foresight: How to link participatory foresight research to the methodological machinery of qualitative research and phenomenology?

Technological progress does not happen in a social vacuum. Shaping of tomorrow is not possible without qualitative analyses. Therefore, the social and psychological dimensions of reality form an important part of technology foresight. Qualitative research will be needed to understand superficial and deep structures of social realities. So called push and pull factors are always linked to social behaviour. People's relationship to the use of technologies and the utilization of technologies is a complex and not a one-dimensional or monological issue. Monological methodological approaches can be harmful and confusing in the field of participatory foresight. We can conclude that the cycles of deductive and inductive logic are needed in science and in participatory foresight studies. Experts of the FTA community must have a higher level of methodological know-how in this research field and they should use qualitative methods in multi-faceted (external and internal) ways in foresight studies. Still the qualitative parts of many studies are quite monological and these studies can be quite problematic, even confusing. More critical methodological approaches should be taken into serious consideration. As a methodological approach, the principle of triangulation should be used more in the fields of participatory foresight studies and technology foresight.The key focus of this article in the use of qualitative and phenomenological approaches in the fields of FTA and foresight. The aim of this theoretically oriented discussion is to promote the professional use of qualitative methods in foresight and FTA studies. The strength of qualitative analyses is linked to deeper understanding of social change and social patterns and structures. Actually people create and constitute the markets, networks, and crowds where technologies are applied and used.Internal systemic understanding of social realities is an important part of foresight activities, especially in participatory foresight studies. Internal and external analyses can be seen as complementary approaches, like qualitative and quantitative approaches. The use of qualitative methods is a conventional part of the research process in participatory foresight projects. A typical problem may be that the use of methods is not planned carefully enough and people are unaware of the underlying key assumptions of applied methods. Experimenting with phenomenology is not a simple task in foresight research. Therefore, the views and informative platforms expressed and presented in this article may be useful for foresight practitioners.     

Extending foresight: The case for and nature of Foresight 2.0

This a programmatic paper with all of the frustrations thereof [1]. We point beyond the well-tilled ground of foresight as commonly practiced (called Foresight 1.0) to an emerging understanding of the work and character of foresight (called Foresight 2.0). By definition, as of today, this new territory is not well mapped, much less carefully worked-over. The question that drives this commitment to Foresight 2.0 was the heart of the 2007 Strathclyde Organizational Foresight Conference—Learning the Future Faster: “Can foresight as commonly practiced enable us to learn the future fast enough to meet and deal with the unique strategic challenges of the 21st Century?” The view taken is that Foresight 1.0 cannot meet this challenge; that it leads to small victories and major disasters. An explanation is offered: Foresight 1.0 was developed, and is still largely practiced, with the eyes and mind of management, whereas sustained success in the unique conditions of the 21st Century requires Foresight 2.0—seeing, thinking and acting with the eyes and mind of Leadership. This distinction is explained. Evidence is offered that futures research and foresight are slowly moving towards this new practice. The hope is expressed that, if we grasp the need for it, the nature of it and have explicit mental maps of the journey to it, we who are professional foresight researchers and practitioners will move faster and more effectively to develop Foresight 2.0. Several steps towards this end are outlined.     

The importance of accounting-integrated information systems for realising productivity and sustainability in the agricultural sector

Agricultural information systems are an integral part of modern farming and are helping to make a significant contribution to improved farm productivity and profitability. To date, however, there has been a failure to integrate accounting information systems with on-farm data, despite today’s farmers facing unprecedented and interconnected economic and resource pressures. This study explores this problem in more detail, defines the objectives of the solution and develops a model of integrated accounting and agricultural information systems, drawing on a ‘fads and fashions’ framework and advancing our understanding of bundled innovations. Using data from a participatory case study in Australian potato farming, the study integrates accounting data with soil moisture and climate data to track, alert and inform irrigation decisions. Development of preliminary digital software based on the model demonstrates how cost-informed tracking, alerts and forecasting can be supported by bundling accounting information systems and sensing technology. In doing so, the model extends the fads and fashions framework for agricultural information systems and demonstrates how accounting information can be the key for improved water productivity, profitability and agricultural sustainability.     

Credit policy and its heterogeneous effects on green innovations

We use the issuance of a new credit policy in China—the Green Credit Guideline (Guideline)—as a unique event and investigate its heterogenous effects on various green technology innovations for different firms in the world’s largest emerging economy. We find that all firms experience a significant increase in green technology innovations after the issuance of the Guideline. Companies with more considerable legitimacy deficiency in environmental compliance are more responsive to the Guideline. The larger increase in green technology innovations for companies with more legitimacy deficiency in environmental compliance is mainly driven by their higher productivity in applicational technology innovations after the Guideline was issued. All firms experience significant improvements in the effectiveness of investments, which is an important channel for increasing green technology innovations. Local legal system development and law enforcement efforts, firms’ political connections, and state ownership are essential mediating factors for green technology innovations, especially for firms with more legitimacy deficiency in environmental compliance. The Guideline positively affects both firm value and reputation, indicating that the new credit policy promotes impact investing.     

Foresight tackling societal challenges: Impacts and implications on policy-making

Foresight activities are often conducted to anticipate major societal future challenges and provide support to current decision-making. Whereas the paper reports some findings on the future of challenges especially related to sustainability, security and information society, it mainly provides evidence on how foresight impacts on policy-making and societal developments. The paper elaborates a framework with key design dimensions related to foresight process and outcomes in order to characterise different kinds of foresight projects. The framework is applied for the empirically based ex post analysis of selected foresight projects around the world in order to clarify (i) different roles for foresight in the innovation system and society and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy.     

Quality of data, information and knowledge in regional foresight processes

A central subcategory of futures research is technology foresight. There is a concern that today's technology foresight processes do not serve technology-political decision-making and strategy processes of companies well enough. The regional level needs to be emphasized, too, and the inclusion of a wide variety of actors and organizations. There is a danger that results of foresight processes are not absorbed into regional strategy-making processes, leading to a “black hole of interpretation and implementation of foresight knowledge”. Particularly knowledge, but also data and information are crucial concepts in foresight processes. An important issue is how to transform foresight information into future-oriented innovation knowledge. Concrete tools and institutional settings to enhance data, information and knowledge quality in foresight processes and strategy work are needed. This article investigates limitations of established foresight processes and planning approaches, limitations in practical utilization of results of foresight processes, and quality of data, information and knowledge as concrete tools and as a systematic response to limitations. The article is partly based on empirical results from a technology foresight survey undertaken in Finland in 2005. The research responds to societal and academic interest by combining the fields of (i) futures research and (ii) data, information and knowledge quality. Future-oriented considerations are not routine tasks, which makes it especially challenging and important to ensure that these processes benefit from data, information and knowledge of good quality.     

Failures to enact the future—A social practice perspective

To be successful, organisational foresight requires a multitude of perspectives and faculties. We have adopted a social practice perspective, which we base within an interpretative world view, to better understand how organisational foresight is enacted. This offers a reading of the phenomena, of which the essential contribution is that organisational foresight is more than an organisational property; it is something that reflective people do as they engage with various inputs from the outside and as a result of the continuous interaction between activity systems and their constituting elements. A longitudinal case study illustrates the importance of understanding the construction of collective and individual meaning in working with organisational foresight. The study shows how the inherent rigidity of the existing activity system and the weak ties between these diverse subsets of the organisation may block the interaction between emerging social practices and organisational intentions resulting in ongoing failures of understanding and enactment. A model is developed to include these parameters in an augmented activity systems model. Based on this we have identified the linking of organisational levels as one of the key dimensions to be considered for which the social practice perspective holds significant explanatory strength.     

Merging art and design in foresight: Making sense of Emerge

Emerge: Artists and Scientists Redesign the Future, hosted by Arizona State University in 2012, united artists, engineers, bioscientists, social scientists, storytellers and designers to build, draw, write and play with the future. Over three days, and in nine different workshops, participants created games, products, monuments, images and stories in an effort to reveal the texture and feel of emergent futures. The Emerge workshops drew from a burgeoning field of future-oriented methods that infuse art, design and information technology into the development and delivery of scenarios and design fictions – a constellation of practices I call “mediated scenarios”. This introduction and the articles in this special issue, work to make sense of these emerging practices, and of Emerge itself, in order to develop appreciation of this rising genre. In doing so, the papers in this issue ask critical questions about the nature of these novel forms of foresight practice and investigate the trade-offs and potencies involved in the workings of mediated scenarios.     

Generating technology development paths to the desired future through system dynamics modeling and simulation

Technology foresight is usually conducted by government or industry associations and can serve to provide companies with information on critical technologies that a country or industry intends to develop in the next ten to twenty years. For individual companies to benefit from foresight results and transform them into specific technology development plans, the relationships between the desired technologies and the dynamic business environment need to be understood. In this article, an innovation diffusion model implemented via system dynamics simulation is used to operationalize the link between foresight and planning. It helps company decision makers visualize the diffusion process of the innovation inhabiting the chosen technology and determine the critical parameters quantitatively through experiments and analysis. Using these results, possible paths leading to the desired future of the chosen technology can be generated and plans be prepared to guide the effective development of the technology, essential infrastructure, and key applications. An example is presented at the end to illustrate the application of the proposed method that helps a Chinese service carrier to plan for its 4G wireless communication network expansion.     

Sustainable development of agricultural systems: competing objectives and critical limits

The sustainability of agricultural systems has become a major focus for debates about future human survival. Much of the argument appears to rely on simplistic interpretation of ecological models, and fails adequately to define what sustainability objectives are being sought. We explore the implications of two alternative approaches to agricultural sustainability: the Critical Limits view which would require future farming systems to accept the ecosystem-imposed limits on the number of people in the world and the lifestyle they can enjoy; and the Competing Objectives view would balance agricultural sustainability with economic viability, reduction of environmental harm and fulfilling public demands for food and landscape benefits. The development of farming systems of the future will depend on which of these views is adopted by planners and policy makers.This paper challenges some of the ecological assumptions underlying the Critical Limits approach and questions the conventional view that extensive farming systems are more sustainable agriculturally than intensive systems. We may be able to deal more effectively with the environmental side effects of intensive farming systems by treating them as unwanted externalities and taking direct action to avoid or remove them rather than attempting to change fundamentally the nature of modern farming systems.To cope with the increasingly complexity and inter-connectedness of modern farming systems in the context of globalisation and potential perturbations like climate change, we need a pluralistic approach to policy, which can cope with the high levels of uncertainty in these areas and which allows maximum flexibility of response to changing circumstances.     

Do low-carbon investments in emerging economies pay off? Evidence from the Brazilian stock market

Climate change has created both challenges and opportunities for investors worldwide. Investing in carbon-efficient assets, for instance, may reduce investors' climate risks while contributing to global efforts for climate change mitigation. Investors need updated and robust information on the financial performance of low-carbon investments, especially in emerging markets, where climate finance initiatives are still scattered. In this work, we provide a first insight into the financial performance of a portfolio of shares from Brazilian carbon-efficient companies. To that end, we use as reference the Carbon Efficient Index (ICO2) and assess its financial performance from 2010 to 2019 through the lens of several classic and modern portfolio metrics. We find that the index outperformed both the Brazilian market benchmark and the country's broad sustainability index, and provided competitive risk-adjusted returns compared with other sectorial indices. The results thus indicate that investing in carbon-efficient companies in Brazil has so far positively contributed to portfolio performance while offering investors an opportunity to reduce climate risk exposure in stock markets.     

Is the future a political economy? Functional analysis of three leading foresight and futures studies journals

This article tests whether the field of foresight and futures studies shows significant variable selection biases in the modelling of the future in general and the impact of function systems in particular. We performed a word frequency analysis to measure the relative importance of the political system, the economy, science, art, religion, law, sport, health, education, and the mass media to three pertinent journals in the field of futures studies and foresight. The results show that Futures, Long Range Planning, and Technological Forecasting and Social Change have different and changing preferences for the above function systems, an information which authors may find helpful in supporting decisions on where to submit. Our results also show that all journals feature a highly significant bias to the triple helix systems – the political system, the economy, and science. While the latter bias may be adequate to scientific journals, the dominant focus on the political system and the economy as well as the corresponding neglect of the other systems points at implicit presumptions about the importance of the individual systems that may not be in line with their importance to the larger society.     

A dynamic systems perspective on fine art and its market

This article focuses on dynamic systems theory applied to art systems, especially the social system of art. By this integrative approach, the field of art and culture can be linked to, as well as profit from, other fields where systems-theoretical approaches have been influential, such as sociology, psychology, communication theory and the natural sciences. We show that systems models help to describe and conceptualize essential phenomena characteristic of the fine arts, such as pattern formation, reduction of complexity, and self-reference. Pattern formation can be observed in emerging artistic styles, fashions and trends. The property of self-reference becomes tractable by using the concept of endosystems, i.e. systems that include participating observers and second circularity feedback. The consequences of such dynamics are uncertainty, destabilization, and diversification. Endosystemic modeling promises to capture core properties not only of contemporary art, laying an emphasis on novelty and self-reference. Endosystems are appropriate models of further social systems, especially markets systems, which pose problems for foresight. Within the horizon of foresight that is at all possible in endosystems, three futures scenarios are worked out for the art system.