Carrot or stick: Impacts of alternative climate and energy policy scenarios on agriculture

The climate and energy strategy of the European Union presents the aims for all economic sectors to cut carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper, we studied what kind of conflicts, synergies, opportunities and control measures the climate and energy policy brings to farms in Finland. We used the Delphi method to assess possible outcomes of three scenarios based on the strength of mitigation policy. The scenarios scrutinised were (1) Baseline, (2) Tight Control and (3) Energy Plus Food. These scenarios create different adaptive needs and measures on farms. Baseline scenario follows the present and forthcoming development in agriculture and Tight Control scenario, in turn, constitutes all possible mitigation measures recently introduced in the scientific discussion. In Energy Plus Food scenario, farms increasingly produce renewable energy in addition to food and, therefore, have new opportunities to develop their businesses. The Delphi panel estimated how the farms would cope with different future developments represented by the scenarios. Based on our results, it is evident that interdisciplinary analysis in research and inter-sectoral cooperation between agricultural and energy policies are required.     

Scenarios on European energy security: Outcomes of natural gas strategy in 2020

This paper adopts a futuristic methodology and analyzes the role of natural gas in European energy security in order to transform economic and policy uncertainties into meaningful scenarios. It implements “trend analysis” to forecast the volume of gas needed until 2020 by elaborating the estimates of the EU Commission and “scenario building” to come up with alternative futures forging different regional implications. The economic analysis stems from four scenarios as introduced by the EU Commission: (1) baseline scenario with average oil price of 61$/bbl; (2) baseline scenario with average oil price of 100$/bbl; (3) New Energy Policy scenario with average oil price of 61$/bbl; (4) New Energy Policy scenario with average oil price of 100$/bbl. The policy analysis is derived from the options, restraints, priorities and strategies of the concerned actors which include the EU Commission, selected EU members, suppliers and transit countries. The analysis on actors results in four policy scenarios: (1) Russia first; (2) Russia everywhere; (3) security first; (4) each for itself. The matrix, which excludes the possibility of unprecedented developments such as a drastic increase in European shale gas production or continuing global recession, clusters 16 contingencies. The paper, within this context, gives an idea on how alternative policy options of European energy security may lead to different futures based on oil prices, environmental commitments and strategic initiatives of the concerned actors.     

Futures of privacy protection: A framework for creating scenarios of institutional change

The future of privacy is a topical issue in the context of debates on mass surveillance and the increasing prevalence of social media sites in everyday life. Previous scenario studies on privacy have focused on macro trends and on forecasting technological developments, and claims about causal influences have remained implicit. This article presents an alternative approach for constructing scenarios of privacy protection. The article focuses on privacy protection as a social institution and builds on the theory of gradual institutional change. The article presents a scenario framework which includes three stages: (1) outlining the dynamics of privacy protection, (2) tracing historical processes and constructing a causal narrative, and (3) creating event-based scenarios. The resulting scenarios are narratives of plausible chains of events which are based on the results of the previous stages. The key difference to typical scenario approaches is the focus on specific actors and types of event sequences in privacy protection. The argument is that by lowering the level of abstraction in this way, researchers and decision-makers can gain a more profound understanding of possible future challenges in privacy protection and of key leverage points in the institutional change process.     

Functions of scenarios in transition processes

Given the interplaying tendencies of economic decline, social instability, and environmental depletion, any transition towards sustainable development faces a challenging task. To successfully cope with this complexity requires transition management. Integrated approaches for supporting sustainability transitions have been elaborated in the last years. Future studies and scenario construction are regarded as essential components in these approaches. However, the related studies in this field have focused either on a specific type of transition process, or on decision support in a different contextual process, or on a specific function of scenarios. Thus, an evaluation of the wide range of viewpoints on the functions of scenarios with respect to the requirements for transition management is still missing. In this paper, we systematically elaborate upon the functions for transition management that scenarios can fulfil. The developed concept is applied to five empirical scenario studies supporting transition processes on the national, regional and local level in Switzerland. The paper contributes to the development of a functional methodology of transition support, providing initial guidelines for answering the question of which method is appropriate for what type and phase of a transition process.     

Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development

Desertification in the Northern Mediterranean region can be effectively managed only through an understanding of the principal ecological, socio-cultural and economic drivers. Scenarios can play an important role in the understanding of such a complex system. Following the fundamentals of Integrated Assessment, narrative storylines were developed that are qualitative, participatory, and highly integrated. Multi-scale long-term (2030) storylines were developed for Europe, the Northern Mediterranean, and for four local cases. This paper discusses the methodology and results of the process of developing European and Mediterranean scenarios. In Part II, the local scenario development by means of scenario workshops is elaborated upon. European and Mediterranean scenarios were based on a set of three existing European scenarios, that were adapted to fit the specific issues in the Mediterranean region, using the so-called Factor-Actor-Sector (FAS) framework. Resulting scenarios were Convulsive Change (disruptive climate change); Big is Beautiful (oversized EU and powerful multinationals); and Knowledge is King (technological development and mass migration). It proved possible to use and enrich a set of existing European scenarios and to translate them to fit the Mediterranean region. A possible use of this type of narrative storylines is further illustrated in Part II.     

Systemic scenarios of nanotechnology: Sustainable governance of emerging technologies

The economic and social promises of emerging technologies, especially nanotechnology, are assumed to be outstanding due to radical innovative features of materials, products and services. However, preliminary studies indicate that these very same features, e.g. high chemical reactivity, could entail adverse impacts on human health and the environment. Calls for appropriate regulation and societal formation of nanotechnology developments have been made, resulting in the concept of sustainable nanotechnology governance. The required anticipatory knowledge supporting these efforts seems so far to lack a sound methodological basis as well as an integrated perspective on nanotechnological applications. We present a scenario study on possible future developments of nanotechnology in Switzerland (reference year 2020). The study employed a formalized and functional scenario methodology, featuring system analysis, consistency analysis and transdisciplinary collaboration. The results indicate five different future constellations of contextual aspects, such as public awareness, profit potential and legal regulations, which are assumed to consistently correspond to five distinct market situations for nanotechnological applications. Going beyond the specific nanotechnology scenarios, the article argues for a rigorous scenario methodology as a valuable tool for the sustainable governance of emerging technologies.     

The territorial futures of Europe: ‘Trends’, ‘Competition’ or ‘Cohesion’

The ESPON 2006 scenario project generated three integrated roll-forward scenarios (A roll-forward scenario is a scenario in which the hypotheses define the parameters at the start of the covered time period and the scenario then explores the unfolding of events based on theses hypotheses. This is opposed to a roll-backward scenario in which the situation at the end of the time period is defined and the scenario then explores the path to reach this situation.). In the trend scenario renewed efforts are made for the Lisbon strategy, demanding extra investments in R&D and education. Regional policy will also be continued with vigour. In the Competition Scenario bold decisions are made regarding Europe's continued prosperity. The Lisbon strategy takes precedence over institutional reform and other sectoral policies. In the Cohesion Scenario Europe is confronted with the challenge of fully integrating the various regions in Europe. The budgets for Regional Policy and Rural Development Policy are enhanced and targeted to the most needy regions. The scenarios are described as stories about the future, supported by model calculations and visualised by various maps. They concentrate on urban and rural development and on territorial developments in different parts of Europe, like North-West Europe, the Alpine Space and Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, a proactive, roll-back scenario explores the possibilities to combine competitiveness, cohesion and sustainability. A message, derived from the scenarios, is that independent of the explored policy options the European territory will be confronted with large challenges like a (rapid) decline of fossil energy resources and increasing impacts of climate change. The scenarios appear particularly helpful in the context of the current paradigm shift in European regional policy from a policy for balance to a policy for aggregate growth.     

Real option analysis of a technology portfolio

This article contributes to methodology of real options analysis of investments in capital intensive process industries, where relatively homogenous outputs are produced using commonly known production technologies. In addition to capacity expansion, the method can be used for analysis of mergers and acquisitions. Valuation of the real option is based on bid price; i.e., the maximum price the firm is willing to pay. To find such a price, stochastic optimization with an expected utility criterion is used to determine investments in product specific technologies as well as in publicly traded financial instruments (the competing investments). To operationalize the valuation principle, we develop a double binary tree employing Kalman filter for scenario generation. For exponential utility, valuation is carried out by dynamic programming. We extend known methods to allow interdependence of the mill cash flow and return on competing financial investments. For forest industries, we provide an illustration, where the underlying price process in our Kalman filter application is a vector error correction model.     

Foresight analysis of agricultural sector at regional level

The objective of this paper is to carry out a foresight analysis of the agricultural sector in Castilla y León (Spain) for 2020. The methodology used to build the various scenarios is prospective analysis. We first performed a structural analysis in order to identify the key driving forces that characterize the evolution of the sector in this region (agricultural production, demand for agricultural products and institutional framework). We then carried out a morphological analysis that generated a range of “partial scenarios” from which we finally built four “global scenarios”. These last scenarios characterize the possible trends in the variables of change previously identified. Lastly, the common key parameters of each global scenario were quantified by means of the Delphi method. The characterization of scenarios has a double practical interest. First of all, they can explain the cause-effect relationships of the processes of change that affect agriculture in this region of Spain. Secondly, they are a powerful tool to stimulate an in-depth reflection of how the design and implementation of current agricultural policies will affect the already fragile agricultural sector of Castilla y León. This study thus aims to support decision-making processes at regional level.     

Scenario planning at business unit level

The scenario planning literature is focused on corporate level interventions. There is a general consensus on the method, but there is little debate about the stages involved in building and using the scenarios. This article presents a case study of a scenario planning intervention, which was conducted at a business unit of the British division of one of the largest beauty and cosmetic products multinationals. The method adopted in this case study has some fundamental differences to the existing models used at corporate level. This research is based on the principles of autoethnography, since its purpose is to present self-critical reflections, enhanced by reflective and reflexive conversations on a scenario planning method used at business unit level. The critical reflections concern a series of critical incidents which distinguish this method from existing intuitive logic scenario planning models which are used at corporate level planning. Ultimately this article contributes to the scenario planning method literature by providing insights into its practice at business unit level.     

Alternative futures: AmI scenarios and Minority Report

In the last few decades, scenarios have provided a way of analysing the implications of alternative futures, especially as they might be impacted by new technologies. This has been no less true of ambient intelligence (AmI), which may be embedded everywhere in the not so distant future. Most of the scenarios developed by AmI enthusiasts have been rather ‘sunny’, showing how the new technologies promise to make our lives more efficient, enjoyable, productive, enriching. A European project, called Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence (SWAMI), deliberately developed ‘dark scenarios’ to highlight the threats to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by the new technologies. The SWAMI consortium also developed a methodological structure for deconstructing and analysing the dark scenarios. This paper takes that approach a step further by applying it to a cultural artefact, partly to test the validity, utility, applicability of the SWAMI methodology to a scenario not constructed by the consortium and partly to show how some cultural artefacts can be regarded as scenarios in their own right as well as warnings about future technologies. The cultural artefact chosen here was the Steven Spielberg film Minority Report, because it features so many AmI technologies and draws attention to the issues that have been the focus of the SWAMI project.     

Some future scenarios for renewable energy

Energy security issues, climate change, fossil fuel depletion, new technologies, and environmentally conscious consumers are powerful forces shaping the renewable energy sector. The future of renewable energy depends upon how powerful these forces are and which combination of forces prevails. This paper defines and analyzes four different scenarios, business as usual (2010–2030), focus on climate change (2010–2060), focus on energy security (2010–2030), and a clean and secure energy future (2010–2100) for the future of renewable energy. A clean and secure energy future, where renewable energy accounts for between 50% and 80% of total energy demand, is the most favorable scenario for the future of renewable energy but also the scenario that takes the greatest amount of commitment, in terms of time and money from businesses, individuals, governments, and policy makers.     

The future of the red metal—scenario analysis

A regional copper scenario model has been developed from the perspective of the generic Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the four world regions: OECD90, ASIA, REF, and ALM. A set of three scenarios: Tech World, Green World, and Trend World, each representing the significant driving forces influencing population and economic growth, technological change and environmental consciousness, is presented. Intensities of copper use converge in the long-term in the Tech and Green World as GDP per capita level approaches $100,000. Global copper use, currently 15 Tg Cu/yr, is expected to rise to 30–130 Tg Cu/yr by the year 2100. The rate of copper use in the ASIA and ALM regions exceeds the copper use in the OECD90 and REF regions beyond 2020. A Green World corresponds to per capita global copper use of 4 kg Cu/(capita-yr) as compared to the contemporary global level of 2.6 and 10 kg Cu/(capita-yr) in developed regions, symbolizing the sustainability theme. For the OECD90 region, the results are more sensitive to the copper intensity of use variable whereas for ASIA and ALM regions, variations in GDP per capita can influence copper use.     

An Empirical Investigation of the Influence of Qualitative Risk Factors on Canadian Auditors’ Determination of Performance Materiality*

This paper presents the results of a field experiment that tested the effects of various qualitative risk factors suggested by auditing standards and prior literature on practicing Canadian auditors’ estimates of performance materiality, a concept introduced by Canadian Auditing Standard (CAS) 320, in the audit of specific accounts in a financial statement audit. Ninety‐four practicing auditors responded to four scenarios and, based on “good” and “bad” versions of six qualitative risk factors, revised or not, as they deemed appropriate, initially established performance materiality for the audit of four different transaction streams/account balances. For all four scenarios, on average, the auditors revised, to a statistically significant degree, performance materiality, downward on the basis of “bad” information and upward on the basis of “good” information. Different combinations of transaction streams/accounts and risk factors were associated with different magnitudes of revision. However, at the level of individual participants, responses were quite varied. Some participants did not revise performance materiality and some even stated that performance materiality should not be revised based on risk‐related information. It may be that the concept of performance materiality as promulgated in CAS 320 and the relationship between overall materiality, performance materiality, and risk requires clarification to provide appropriate guidance for auditors to make performance materiality judgments.     

Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning's role as a catalyst for urban policy integration

Policy integration has become a high-priority objective for urban planning and management. At the same time, the transportation and urban planning fields have increasingly employed scenario planning approaches, not only to develop long-term strategy, but also—potentially—to strengthen organizational networks and encourage collaborative action. Yet these latter supposed outcomes of scenario planning remain under-theorized and largely untested. In this study, we propose a methodology, based on established theories of collaboration, to test the ability of a particular type of scenario planning to encourage collaboration between participants. We demonstrate the approach using a scenario planning process undertaken within the transportation and urban planning community in Portugal. The pre-/post-test experimental design uses a survey designed to assess participants’ propensity for future collaboration by measuring change in individuals’ perceptions and understandings. The results suggest that the process likely modestly increased participants’ propensity to collaborate, primarily by strengthening inter-agency networks. The effects on participants’ views and understanding remain inconclusive. We suggest that specific challenges in applying this specific scenario planning approach to public sector contexts may limit the method's potential in achieving inter-organizational collaboration. Nonetheless, only more widespread efforts to formally test the scenario planning rhetoric will reveal the true impacts on organization change.     

Technological change, industry structure and the environment

This paper contributes towards the construction and application of a method to assess the long-term impact of the development of pervasive technologies on the environment. It seeks to integrate insights from studies of technology regarding long-term growth with questions of sustainability. Using a methodology based on long-wave theory and a sector classification based on technological characteristics, the likely effects of the three pervasive technologies (information technology, biotechnology and nanotechnology) on the input-output structure of selected sectors and on the levels of emissions of industrial greenhouse gases are considered.     

Energy Savings and Economic Impact of Green Roofs: A Pilot Study

This study focuses on the energy savings and economic impact of green roof systems applied to Central Bodrum, a district in southwestern Turkey. Energy savings of the buildings were evaluated based on the added thermal resistance on the roofs and corresponding heat transmission through the roofs. Four different scenarios, two without green financing and two with green consumer loans for retrofitting financed by the central government via the state-owned banks, were studied. The economic impact of this activity on the economy is estimated based on sectoral employment multipliers for a period of 10 years. Based on the scenario analysis and the priorities of the Turkish economy, given the employment benefits and energy savings which would reduce the energy demand in the area in the peak season, we propose that the government implements green consumer loans for retrofitting through the state-owned banks.     

Structure in creativity: An exploratory study to analyse the effects of structuring tools on scenario workshop results

Scenario projects increasingly combine quantitative models with qualitative, participatory products in order to make scenarios more coherent, relevant, credible and creative. A major advantage of adding participatory, qualitative scenarios is their ability to produce creative, innovative, non-linear products. Integrating participatory results with quantitative models, however, can lower their credibility of both products when they are not consistent. The low level of structure in most participatory output limits possibilities for linking them to quantitative models. More structure could be introduced, but this might hamper the creativity of the workshop results: outcomes (process) and outputs (storylines). This paper tests a new method to analyse the creativity of scenario storylines in order to analyse the effects of structuring tools on the creativity of workshop results. Both the perceptions of participants and the resulting storylines of nine case studies across Europe are used in the analysis. Results show that the use of structuring tools can have a negative effect on the creativity of the workshop, but the influence seems to vary between the different tools. The study shows the benefit of using indicators for the scenario quality criteria. More research is needed to develop indicators for other scenario quality criteria, to improve those developed here and to study the impact of structuring tools with a larger data set.