Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method

What stories do we tell about the future? This article develops a topology of storytelling about the future, which is used to develop a definition of ‘futures literacy’. It goes on to outline a hybrid strategic scenario method for acquiring the capacities of futures literacy.     

Economic complexity,diversification and economic development: The strategic factors

The aim of this paper is to deliver an econometric panel data analysis on economic complexity by using annual data from 133 countries during the period from 1984 to 2018. This work admits that spatial heterogeneity and discontinuity may affect economic complexity and that there is a more accurate supranational level of analysis and economic policy. The paper shows that variables such as GDP per capita and economic vulnerability strongly affect the economic complexity of a country, while human capital and innovation rate are less significant. The potential of natural resources seems to be negatively correlated with economic complexity.     

Creativity and dysfunction in strategic processes: The case of scenario planning

This paper attempts to open up a new line of enquiry into the dysfunctions of creativity within strategic processes. Generally, the impact and results of introducing creativity (and innovation) into organisational life are perceived to be wholesome and beneficial. But recent research in the area of organisational psychology has documented a ‘dark’ side to its introduction, e.g., low employee morale, stress, theft, sabotage, destructive conflict. Learning from this work and shifting the domain to strategic management, this paper focuses on scenario planning—a strategy process widely regarded by participants and facilitators as creative and innovative in structure, content and output. First, the creative credentials of the process are established with reference to the literature and definitions from the creative and cultural industries. Second, the process is deconstructed into activities and each is examined for the extent of its embedded creativity. Third, informed by case evidence, four dysfunctions of the scenario planning process are conjectured: creativity layered on fantasy; heightened expectations and confusion; pride and passion; and creativity leading to excess. The paper concludes by suggesting four options for handling these potential dysfunctional effects and, in the light of the dialogue presented, re-interprets the definition of scenario planning presented earlier in the text.     

Critical success factors for risk management systems

Despite the existence of extensive literature regarding risk management, there still seems to be lack of knowledge in the identification of critical success factors (CSFs) in this area. In this research, grounded theory is implemented to identify CSFs in risk management systems (RMS). Factor analysis and one‐sample t‐tests are then used to refine and rank the CSFs on the basis of the results of a survey which has been conducted among risk management practitioners in various types of Swedish corporations. CSFs are defined from three different perspectives: (1) the factors that have influence on the inclination and readiness of a corporation for implementing RMS; (2) The factors that are important during the design and implementation of RMS in a corporation and can significantly affect the success of RMS design and implementation; and (3) the factors that are crucially important to successfully run, maintain, and administrate RMS after the closure of the project of RMS design and implementation. A case study of a largely successful RMS is presented and discussed in terms of these key factors. This systematic approach toward understanding the taxonomy of the success dimension in RMS is important for re‐enforcing effective risk management practices.     

Towards community engagement: six steps to expert learning for future scenario development

This paper describes a variety of facilitated exercises for use in collaborative workshops where experts are brought together to create archetypes that feed into the design of alternative scenarios for the future of their area of expertise (e.g., forestry, housing, transportation, food systems and waste). In this case, these workshops were designed to aid in the development of a computer-based sustainability tool (GB-Quest) that supports a larger process of community engagement and dialogue focused on sustainability in the southwestern portion of British Columbia, Canada. Value-focused thinking and a narrative-based structure provided the framework for this dialogue and a template for asking hard questions about the assumptions and biases related to the alternatives. Using examples, this paper outlines and details this process and then suggests possible next steps in this ongoing process.     

The critical role of history in scenario thinking: Augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology

The historian Eric Hobsbawm stated that ‘The safest empirical generalization about history is still that nobody heeds its obvious lessons much’. Whether at a macroeconomic level or within individual organisations there are numerous examples of this, such as the economic crash of 2008, the causes of which had many parallels with those that caused the great depression 80 years previously. On the other hand however, overly-relying on the past as a guide to the future has its own obvious dangers—not least that important future events may have no past precedent. As such, the present paper firstly provides a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of using the past as a guide to the future. It then examines the role of history in scenario work, arguing that history should receive greater emphasis as part of the scenario planning process. We suggest changes to the standard Intuitive Logics (IL) approach to scenario planning which would render learning from history a more central component of the scenario process, in contrast to its current peripheral role. Rather than diminishing scenario planning’s ability to facilitate a consideration of how the future may differ from the past, we show how a greater emphasis on history can enhance consideration of the causality of future change. An adapted IL that has more emphasis on historical analysis can augment scenario planning’s effectiveness as a tool for consideration of the future.     

Change and discontinuity: Forecasting for the 1980s

This outline of forecasting takes a very broad view—covering many of the diverse approaches now available—so that attention can be paid to the role of forecasting in discovering and analysing alternatives, as well as to its established role in prediction. The philosophy of forecasting and the differing methodological approaches are discussed, highlighting particularly the problem of continuity and discontinuity in change, and the concepts of the cultural barrier and the paradigm shift. The author, applying the idea of discontinuity in social change (the paradigm shift), examines some possibilities for the 1980s. He argues that in the field of social forecasting, which is now becoming an important element in all other types of forecasting, the forecaster's capability to foresee broad changes in values is crucial, since such changes will themselves lead to further developments throughout society. Forecasting is now reaching the stage where its methods and philosophy allow us to assess potential hazards, and to preset, rather than react, to them.     

中关村促进战略性新兴产业发展政策指引

实施＂十百千工程＂,扶持一批战略性新兴产业领域的创新型企业做强做大聚焦电子信息、生物、新能源和环保、新能源汽车、新材料、航空航天等战略性新兴产业领域,按照核心团队优秀、创新能力强、处于行业主导地位、成长速度快、品牌知名度高等标准,选择一批企业给予重点支持,提高自主创新能力,促进企业跨越式发展。     

Planning of strategic innovation aimed at environmental sustainability: actor-networks, scenario acceptance and backcasting analysis within a polymeric coating chain

This paper addresses a new way of influencing and stimulating technological innovations towards sustainability. Sustainability is operationalised as function fulfilment with a factor of 20 reduction on environmental burden over the entire lifecycle. The method, which is derived from the earlier developed sustainable technological development (STD) and SusHouse methods, includes future visioning together with stakeholder participation, followed by action planning. Future visioning has been carried out in workshops with all relevant stakeholders; action planning is also performed in workshops. As a case study a polymeric coatings chain in the Netherlands and in Portugal, has been chosen. Initially data has been gathered about production, environmental aspects, and technological innovations and applications; later interviews with stakeholders have been carried out followed by the visioning and action planning workshops. The paper shows that the methodology works in a situation in which innovative activity is already under way, identifying new and unexpected ways of making the polymeric coatings chain more sustainable. It discusses further implementation of new ideas of function fulfilment.     

Environmental management control systems: The role of contextual and strategic factors

This study examines the role of contextual and strategic factors in the development of environmental management control systems in manufacturing companies. In particular, the authors test the roles of perceived ecological environmental uncertainty, perceived stakeholder pressures, and the degree of corporate environmental proactivity on the development of environmental management control systems. The main results from a survey of 256 manufacturing companies suggest that companies that perceive greater ecological environmental uncertainty are less inclined to develop a proactive environmental strategy, environmental information system, or formal environmental management control system. Market, community, and organizational stakeholders motivate environmental proactivity, as well as the development of different environmental management control systems. Regulatory stakeholders only encourage the development of an environmental information system.     

Stress scenario generation for solvency and risk management

We derive worst-case scenarios in a life insurance model in the case where the interest rate and the various transition intensities are mutually dependent. Examples of this dependence are that (a) surrender intensities and interest rates are high at the same time, (b) mortality intensities of a policyholder as active and disabled, respectively, are low at the same time, and (c) mortality intensities of the policyholders in a portfolio are low at the same time. The set from which the worst-case scenario is taken reflects the dependence structure and allows us to relate the worst-case scenario-based reserve, qualitatively, to a Value-at-Risk-based calculation of solvency capital requirements. This brings out perspectives for our results in relation to qualifying the standard formula of Solvency II or using a scenario-based approach in internal models. Our results are powerful for various applications and the techniques are non-standard in control theory, exactly because our worst-case scenario is deterministic and not adapted to the stochastic development of the portfolio. The formalistic results are exemplified in a series of numerical studies.     

The contribution of scenario analysis to the front-end of new product development

The front-end of new product development involves the identification and analysis of product or service opportunities, idea generation, and the selection of new product and service concepts. It is often referred to as non-routine, dynamic, and highly uncertain. Authors have made attempts to improve the manageability of this phase by proposing several methods and techniques. This paper explores the possible contribution of scenario analysis to increase the quality and effectiveness of the front-end of new product development process by linking a set of functions of scenario analysis as is recognized in the literature as possible solutions to various front-end problems. Two case studies are used to explore if and how the scenario analysis functions contribute to the front-end of new product development process in an empirical setting.     

Pedagogical cases in the strategic development of management accounting systems

Discussion of the ‘lost relevance’ of management accounting and the ‘gap’ between theory and practice has focused the criticism that management accounting education is built round a set of techniques applied in simplified settings. One reason for this may be the scarcity of case studies, discussing management accounting practices, which may be adopted in classroom situations. The recent promotion of ABC, throughput accounting, just-in-time (JIT) methods and performance measures to support modern manufacturing provide additional educational challenges relating to the integration of these into the accounting curriculum. There is a danger that these may also be developed as other techniques to be learned in isolated situations rather than to be applied selectively by organizations in appropriate situations. This paper offers two case studies which support class discussion of accounting requirements within a modern manufacturing and commercial environment. The cases emphasize that any one technique is inappropriate to all situations. They force examination of manufacturing and marketing policy and strategy in the development of appropriate management accounting information. The authors' experiences of using the case studies is evaluated, to determine the strengths and weaknesses of using the non-numerical cases as a basis for class discussion of contextual factors in accounting system design.     

Non-receptive organizational contexts and scenario planning interventions: A demonstration of inertia in the strategic decision-making of a CEO, despite strong pressure for a change

This study presents a single-case analysis of an unsuccessful scenario planning intervention within an organization. Our analysis utilises corporate documents produced prior to a scenario-based intervention, pre-scenario-development interviews with members of the top management team, and knowledge of post-intervention events. We conclude that, even in the face of strong, orchestrated pressure for a re-think of a fragile strategy, the aspirations of the CEO were dominant. Our case analysis illustrates that inertia in strategic decision making can be extreme—more extreme than the extant literature has recognised. Critical voices can go unheard. We end with consideration of issues to do with facilitating the early recognition that a strategizing intervention can stall.     

City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bulungan development plan

This article discusses the formulation of the Bulungan Development Plan (2002) that sought to formulate a 25 year city vision. The foresight process included how to prepared the process, implemented the scenario planning method, created consensus amongst stakeholders, and formulated graphic and narrative scenarios that explored alternative future for Bulungan. Based on these scenarios, the stakeholders formulated a vision for the city's preferred future. The vision is “excellence in agro industry supported by qualified human resources”.Project debriefing showed that unlike traditional forecasting or market research, the methods of foresight, especially scenario planning, is a more appropriate and powerful planning tool for integrated regional development. The main reason for this is that the future is unpredictable, and scenarios allow stakeholders to make sense of complexity.     

Critical factors and pathways influencing genetically modified food risk perceptions

This study aims to identify the critical factors and paths that affect the Chinese public’s risk perceptions of genetically modified (GM) foods from an emotional appraisal perspective. Using an experiment conducted with university undergraduate business students in China, we examined the evaluative pathways of the Chinese public by manipulating fairness and controllability appraisals in scenarios constructed about GM foods risk. The experiment was designed around two evaluative pathways – consequentialist and deontological perspectives – focusing on controllability and fairness. This led to a distinct set of emotional responses. It was found that both consequence-based and morality-based emotions caused stronger perceived risks toward GM foods. Understanding these responses provides new insight into how scientists and experts in China might best frame their communications about GM foods.     

Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development

Desertification in the Northern Mediterranean region can be effectively managed only through an understanding of the principal ecological, socio-cultural and economic drivers. Scenarios can play an important role in the understanding of such a complex system. Following the fundamentals of Integrated Assessment, narrative storylines were developed that are qualitative, participatory, and highly integrated. Multi-scale long-term (2030) storylines were developed for Europe, the Northern Mediterranean, and for four local cases. This paper discusses the methodology and results of the process of developing European and Mediterranean scenarios. In Part II, the local scenario development by means of scenario workshops is elaborated upon. European and Mediterranean scenarios were based on a set of three existing European scenarios, that were adapted to fit the specific issues in the Mediterranean region, using the so-called Factor-Actor-Sector (FAS) framework. Resulting scenarios were Convulsive Change (disruptive climate change); Big is Beautiful (oversized EU and powerful multinationals); and Knowledge is King (technological development and mass migration). It proved possible to use and enrich a set of existing European scenarios and to translate them to fit the Mediterranean region. A possible use of this type of narrative storylines is further illustrated in Part II.     

全面创新--国有商业银行改革与发展的战略选择

经济全球化是当今世界经济发展的潮流 ,而ＷＴＯ(世界贸易组织 )是各国与国际经济联系与合作的重要通道 ,加入ＷＴＯ(世界贸易组织 )就是参与经济全球化。加入ＷＴＯ对中国经济在2 1世纪的发展具有深远影响 ,并将使中国经济全面融入国际经济体系 ,实现新世纪中华民族的全面复兴。作为国民经济核心的金融业是中国承诺加入ＷＴＯ之后开放的十大领域之一 ,国有商业银行如何迎接加入ＷＴＯ的挑战 ,成为人们日益关注的问题。毫无疑问 ,长期处于高度政策壁垒下的中国银行业 ,尤其是国有商业银行不可避免地要受到冲击 ,对于加入ＷＴＯ之后高度的市…     

Methodology : A scenario method for forecasting

This article is partially based on a paper presented at the fourth international symposium on forecasting in London, July 1984. The scenario method presented has been developed in connection with the author's time spent with the Saab Aerospace Corp. The method was then used and improved when the author worked for Volvo as manager for energy forecasting. The method has been used as a tool for presenting an international transportation system project.     

国际再保险业战略发展模式及其对我国的借鉴

按照再保险战略发展模式的历史演进顺序,将目前国际再保险业的战略发展模式总结为四种:专业再保险模式,再保与直保一体化模式,金融一体化单元模式和多元化单元模式。结合选取了不同发展模式的典型国际再保险公司,对不同模式进行分析和比较,并进一步提出了我国再保险业战略发展建议。