Strategic foresight in public policy: Reviewing the experiences of the UK, Singapore, and the Netherlands

In an interdependent and complex world, only few public policy challenges can be confined to one particular policy area anymore. Many governments have realized that a single-issue focus is often insufficient in dealing with emerging threats and opportunities. They have therefore started to experiment with strategic foresight that deliberately cuts across the traditional boundaries of policy areas and government departments. This article reviews the foresight activities of three countries that have been at the forefront of this trend: the United Kingdom, Singapore, and the Netherlands. To this end, the article discusses the concept of strategic foresight and explains the two distinct ways in which it contributes to public policy-making: on the one hand, it informs policy by providing more systematic knowledge about relevant trends and developments in an organization's environments; on the other hand, it acts as a driver of reflexive mutual social learning processes among policy-makers that stimulate the generation of common public policy visions. The article concludes by drawing lessons with regard to the key success factors allowing strategic foresight to make an effective contribution to public policy-making.     

New development: The evolution of Welsh devolution

The reliance on consumer choice to drive improvements in public services is at the centre of policy debates in the UK and elsewhere. However, the discourse of consumerism occurs in the midst of a quagmire as to whether users of public services can legitimately be considered as customers, citizens or co-producers, while the existing evidence on how far they assume the role of public service consumers is largely ignored. This article discusses research on users' attitudes to choice in health, education and social services in the UK, the European Union and the USA. Provision of public services is rarely about acquiring products for pure consumption, but more about providers and users jointly addressing essential social and human needs. The author argues for an alternative conception of public service provision going beyond the limitations of consumerism, although some users are more likely to choose certain public services over others (for example schools rather than health services). However, the evidence presented disproves the view that users of public services will act as discerning consumers in the market-place.     

Public Management: Raising Our Game

Whatever the colour of the new government after the election, success in tackling social and economic policy problems will prove elusive without a fundamentally different approach to policy making and implementation. The authors argue that the fundamental challenge to the new government is to change the architecture of the system of public policy formulation and implementation to make it fit for purpose. There is growing evidence that the current system can no longer deliver effective responses to the increasingly complex problems faced by society. Radical change is needed to the processes and machinery which exist today, without abandoning innovations in public service management or the Thatcher and Major regimes, or returning to previous systems of government. The practice of public management is central to this change.     

The challenge of the future and the institutionalization of interdisciplinarity: notes on Herman Kahn’s legacy

This article is an attempt to explore Herman Kahn’s foundational contribution to the development of what he called “broad studies”, a combination of futures research and public policy analysis. In Kahn’s view, decision making and policy processes pose two crucial problems that the scholarly research is rarely forced to face: (1) the need to have and operate with a broad, multifaceted vision of phenomena and (2) the issue of coping imaginatively and realistically with future circumstances and conditions that can only vaguely be distinguished in the present. Implied in these two is the need to develop new methods and approaches fitted to the charges imposed by them. The paper discusses Kahn’s work as an integrated solution to these problems: The definition and advocacy of broad and future-oriented studies, his concept on how these studies should be institutionalized in interdisciplinary organizational systems, and the crucial position scenarios and propaedeutic and heuristic methodologies have in this context. A special attention is given to two methodological approaches he developed to cope with these challenges: Scenario Building and the Method of Classes of Variables.When twenty years ago, on July 7, 1983, Herman Kahn died suddenly at age 61, both friends and intellectual adversaries recognized that “the world lost one of its most creative and best minds” [1] and [2]. By that time Herman Kahn was one of the preeminent and best known Futures Studies scholars, a founding father of the field, with extensive and vital contributions in Strategic Studies, an area where he was also considered a founding figure and a leader [3] and [4]. His work was followed all over the world and the directions he traced in the public debate on very sensitive issues of crucial public concern have continued to be unaltered today, twenty years after his unexpected and premature death. Yet in spite of the incessant influence of his arguments and ideas, today his intellectual legacy is still to be accounted for and the breath and depth of his contributions are still to be reviewed and analyzed in a systematic way. This paper is an attempt to explore only one dimensions of this legacy: Kahn’s foundational contribution to the development of what he liked to call “broad studies”, a combination of futures research and public policy analysis.The two decades that have passed since his death allow us today to approach his work undisturbed by the “sound and fury” of the many public debates and controversies he participated in and to focus on some of the deepest and most enduring dimensions of his intellectual contributions. However while doing that, we should keep in mind that for Kahn the public policy process shaping the future and the public debate associated to it were always the focal points and the ultimate ends of his efforts. Indeed, probably the best approach to Kahn’s work is to see it in the light of his continuous concern for the practical relevance of the social research. For him the research process was always action-oriented and its ultimate test was its relevance for policy and social action. As a result, the most promising starting point for any overview of Kahn’s thought and work should be a set of crucial conclusions he reached about the policy making process and decision makers early in his career.     

Innovation, Futures Thinking and Leadership

There are at least three strands of innovation: generating value from putting ideas into practice; creativity and inventive space; and macro-level social change. Recognizing the sources of and barriers to innovation in the public sector, this article reflects on how innovation and creativity in these senses can be nurtured and how the public sector can improve its policy and organizational processes to increase innovation.     

义务教育能提高代际流动性吗？

提高代际流动、促进机会均等对经济社会健康发展至关重要。本文基于2013年中国家庭收入调查数据和2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,利用1986年颁布的义务教育法在省份间的实施时间差异作为外生冲击,使用双重差分方法探究义务教育政策对代际流动的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,义务教育显著提高了代际之间的教育流动性,原因在于父母教育水平、职业层次、收入水平较低的孩子,受教育年限提升得更多。本文的政策含义在于,应当进一步发挥公共政策在提高代际流动性方面的作用,通过教育机会均等化来促进社会公平正义。     

For fraud,look under ‘serious and organized crime’

ABSTRACT

The UK government’s response to fraud cannot be disentangled from its broader ‘serious and organized crime’ (SOC) strategy. In order to explore whether fraud should—in public policy, criminal justice and law enforcement terms—be seen primarily as an SOC issue, there is a need to consider questions about whether or not ‘SOC’ is a sensible object of policy-making in the first place. Several arguments in favour of an SOC policy are identified in the paper. However, the notion of an overarching SOC policy is problematic for three reasons. First, SOC is a fundamental misrepresentation of reality, which does not correspond to a real social problem. Second, SOC policy can limit the development of more problem-specific crime strategies, Third, the ‘SOC’ label can negatively transform how social problems are perceived over the long term. If fraud is to be better understood and dealt with, it may therefore be necessary to extract it from its current inclusion within wider SOC strategy.     

Following or Leading Public Opinion? Social Security Policy and Public Attitudes Since 1997

This paper examines New Labour's social security and related policies since 1997 in the light of evidence on public attitudes. The list of measures where policies have been in or have come into line with public attitudes is much longer than the list of measures where policies have been out of line with public attitudes or appear to have led them. One interpretation is that policy has been led by opinion surveys and focus groups, with opportunities lost to take more radical action and then persuade people of the need and justification for it. An alternative would be that policy has navigated with the grain of some of the more progressive parts of public opinion to achieve a result that has carried the public with it, in a way that would not have been sustainable if there had simply been an increase in the generosity of an unreformed social security system.     

Anticipatory policymaking in global venues: Policy change,adaptation, and the UNFCCC

The subfield of public policy depicts policymaking as reactive process wherein public officials respond to existing social problems. While this depiction holds true in many cases, it fails to account for instances where policy change occurs in anticipation of emerging threats or hazards. “Anticipatory problems” are projected to occur in the future, and it is the prospect of their occurring that generates policy debate. This paper examines the policymaking pattern engendered by anticipatory policy problems, highlighting the ways in which they challenge and support existing assumptions about the process of policy change. To illustrate this distinctive dynamic, this paper will present a case study examining the evolving debate over climate change adaptation policy within United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).     

Social networks and managerial rent-seeking: Evidence from executive trading profitability

This study examines whether board social networks are associated with executive trading profitability. Using a sample of US public firms with a history of executive trading from years 2000 to 2015, we find robust evidence that the profitability of executive trading is significantly lower in firms with higher levels of board social networks. The evidence is consistent with our view that board social networks effectively curb executives' private information advantage over outsiders, thus leading to a lower level of managerial rent-seeking. Our research has policy implications for regulators concerned about the role of corporate board in capital markets.     

Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion

In models of monetary policy, discretionary policymaking is typically constrained in its ability to manage public beliefs. However, when a policymaker possesses private information, policy actions serve as signals to the public about unobserved economic conditions and belief management becomes an integral part of optimal discretion policies. This article derives the optimal time‐consistent policy for a general linear‐quadratic setting. The optimal policy is illustrated in a simple New Keynesian model, where analytical solutions can be derived as well. In this model, imperfect information about the policymaker's output target leads to lower policy losses.     

The psychodynamics of meaning and action for a sustainable future

Environmental policy and social research tends to neglect the inner, experiential dimensions of human life. Yet, the ways in which individuals seek to achieve psychological and emotional well-being in their lives is inevitably expressed in behaviour that impacts on ecological (and social) processes.The yearning for this ‘inner human sustainability’ is psychologically rooted and subjectively experienced. Beliefs and worldviews about how best to satisfy it are culturally (i.e. inter-subjectively and collectively) constructed and expressed through behaviour that, in turn, supports or undermines the external ecological and social world. Consumerism and its associated behaviours are inherently unsustainable socio-ecologically and psychologically. Through a psychodynamic theory of human experience, meaning and behaviour, the paper explains why any policy, if it is to be effective in the long-term, must be attentive to psychological, experiential and cultural dimensions of human beings and beliefs about how needs and wants will be satisfied. It also argues that long-term societal and cultural transformation is only possible when individuals take responsibility for their own development, transformation and engagement in the larger social and ecological complex on which they depend. Policy-making, research and education are themselves cultural activities that seek to respond appropriately to changes in the external world within the constraints of powerful cultural (collective) and psychological (individual) values and priorities. A systemic approach to sustainable development requires consideration of the mutual dependence between eco-social and psycho-cultural realities.     

The educational planning system: Change and tension

If educational planning is conceived as a means of making and implementing policy and not merely as an intellectual exercise, deeper consideration ought to be given to social tension and conflicts which might be implied by, and reflected in, social change processes. In this article, discrepancies are analysed as the main causes of social tension and conflict, and a discrepancy conceptual model is suggested as a means of identification of tension origins. Furthermore, since every system is characterised by its tension absorbability, assumptions are made about the critical limits of the system's “tension-input overload”, which are essential to educational planning.     

A European view on the legitimacy of accounting procedures: Towards a deliberative-accountability framework for analysis

Accounting rules affect fundamental areas of social interaction encompassing groups that have diverse and conflicting interests regarding financial reporting. In the absence of a coherent social choice theory, concepts of legitimacy can be used to assess the acceptance of accounting standard-setting processes and their resulting norms. In this paper, we analyze the standard-setting process in Europe. Accounting rules in Europe are developed in a two-stage process involving both private standard-setting and public rule-making. From a structural perspective, the European Union (EU) is well positioned to develop legitimate accounting procedures. However, the original purpose and the ensuing legitimacy of its control mechanism are jeopardized when EU structures are used and sometimes abused for policy formation and the creation of EU-IFRS.     

The two limits debates: “Limits to Growth” and climate change

In this article we compare the current debate about global warming with the earlier discourse of Limits to Growth (LtG) of the 1970s. We are especially interested in the similarities of and differences between the two cases and therefore compare the policy challenges and lessons to be drawn. While the two debates differ on important issues, they share a technocratic orientation to public policy, and susceptibility to similar pitfalls. In both debates alarming scenarios about future catastrophes play an important role. We suggest that climate change policy discourse needs to focus more closely on the social, economic, and political dimensions of climate change, as opposed to its excessive emphasis on emission reduction targets. We also argue that an excessive faith in the market mechanisms to supply global warming mitigation technologies is problematic. In this respect, we provide a reality check regarding the political implications of emission targets and timetables and suggest how policy issues can be moved forward.     

社会保险市场上的逆向选择与公共政策干预:国际研究动态述评

随着社会经济的进步与发展,提供社会保险日益成为现代政府的重要任务,而信息不对称带来的逆向选择这一市场失灵问题是政府提供社会保险的主要经济依据之一。由此,近年来国际学术界涌现出一大批关于社会保险市场上逆向选择与公共政策干预问题的研究文献,在将理论与数据相结合以分析公共政策的福利影响方面出现了很多研究进展。本文就尝试对这一领域的研究进行总结与分析,为国内学术研究的开展与公共经济政策的设计提供有益借鉴。     

Privatized Utilities and the 'Third Way'

The Government is planning new regulations to ensure that utility companies 'reflect a sense of social responsibility'. Their intention to overlay social objectives on the regulatory frameworks inspired by free market economics can be seen as an attempt to find a 'Third Way' policy for the utilities. Neoliberals would argue that social policy has no place in the privatized utility sector, which is now well established. Interference in regulatory processes to achieve social objectives is likely to be counter-productive by distorting prices and inhibiting the incentive system designed to achieve efficiencies. Rather than requiring the companies to act as instruments of government policy, the Government could achieve its social objectives through subsidies, or through the social security system, leaving the regulatory framework to operate unfettered.     

Optimal certification policy,entry, and investment in the presence of public signals

We explore the optimal disclosure policy of a certification intermediary where (i) the seller decides on entry and investment in product quality, and (ii) the buyers observe an additional public signal on quality. The optimal policy maximizes rent extraction from the seller by trading off incentives for entry and investment. We identify conditions under which full, partial or no disclosure can be optimal. The intermediary's report becomes noisier as the public signal gets more precise, but if the public signal is sufficiently precise, the intermediary resorts to full disclosure. However, the social welfare may reduce when the public signal becomes more informative.     

Public capital, public pension, and growth

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations, whose engine of economic growth is productive public capital. We investigate a public policy under which the government allocates tax revenue between investment in public capital accumulation and public pension provision. We show that increasing the share of spending on public pensions always reduces economic growth. However, we show numerically that public pension provision improves social welfare and there exists an optimal share of spending on public pension provision unless the value of the time discount factor of the government is sufficiently high. Moreover, we show that in an economy facing an aging population, an increase in social security provision for the old rather than an increase in public investment can be preferable from the viewpoint of social welfare.     

Bringing ideology in: the conservative white male effect on worry about environmental problems in the USA

Extending existing scholarship on the white male effect in risk perception, we examine whether conservative white males (CWMs) are less worried about the risks of environmental problems than are other adults in the US general public. We draw theoretical and analytical guidance from the identity-protective cognition thesis explaining the white male effect and from recent political psychology scholarship documenting the heightened system-justification tendencies of political conservatives. We utilize public opinion data from nine Gallup surveys between 2001 and 2010, focusing on both a single-item indicator and a composite measure of worry about environmental problems. We find that CWMs indeed have significantly lower worry about environmental problems than do other Americans. Furthermore, the results of our multivariate regression models reveal that this CWMs effect remains significant when controlling for the direct effects of political ideology, race, and gender and the effects of nine social, demographic, and temporal control variables – as well as the effect of individuals generalized (nonenvironmental) risk perceptions. We conclude that the white male effect is due largely to CWMs, and that the latters low level of concern with environmental risks is likely driven by their social commitment to prevent new environmental regulations and repeal existing ones.