气候变化与低碳投资机遇及战略

全球气候变化会带来"低碳"投资主题和业务机遇,由于气候变化资产回报率高且与传统资产之间的相关性适中,在传统组合中加入气候变化资产将进一步优化资产组合,改善组合的回报与风险结构.可以运用诸如债券、股票、私募股权、房地产以及基础设施投资等资产类型来捕获气候变化投资机会.在气候变化条件下,投资管理业应采取积极的应对和发展战略,尤其是要改进对公司的估值评估方法,充分考虑气候变化对公司价值的潜在影响.     

Climate Change Policy in Australia: Organisational Responses and Influences

This paper uses a case study approach to examine (a) the nature of organisational responses to climate change policy using the Kolk and Pinkse (2004, 2005) typology; and (b) key drivers for action on climate change. We find evidence consistent with the evolution of responses from setting emission targets (cautious planners, emergent planners) to process innovation and product development (internal explorers). The exception to such linear development is horizontal explorers, who explore competitive opportunities in markets outside their current business. Key drivers for action include managerial perceptions of business opportunities, product differentiation and an implicit regard for the environment. Major impediments include uncertainty about the detail of climate change policy and managerial perceptions of business risk. At present, the intended strategic trading behaviour of the case organisations is best described as muted. However, the national institutional environment of which a liberal market economy and a carbon service industry are key, appear conducive to the future acceptance and active adoption of emissions trading in Australia.     

The Fisher Equation: A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach

This article reinvestigates the Fisher equation. Using the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model, it was found that there is a significant regime-switching effect concerning the impact of inflation on interest rates. Specifically, inflation is found to raise the interest rates and the effect becomes stronger in magnitude with inflation. However, the data do not provide evidence in support of the one-for-one Fisher effect. The evidence is robust to interest rates with different maturities and subsamples.     

Hu Jintao' s Speech on Climate Change (abridged)

Mr.Secretary-General,dear colleagues, Global climate change has a profound impact on the survival and development of mankind. It is a major challenge facing all countries.I wish to highlight a few principles that we need to follow in our common endeavor to tackle this issue of climate change.     

外商直接投资对我国就业的影响:基于面板VAR的分析

本文运用面板VAR方法研究外商直接投资对国内就业、工资的动态影响。研究发现，外商直接投资对我国工资水平的提高没有显著作用；对我国就业水平的影响有正向影响，但程度非常有限；外商直接投资的变动没有说明在岗职工工资和就业的扰动；动态地看，在岗职工人数对外商直接投资冲击反应总体上是负向的，尽管程度非常有限；而工资水平对外商直接投资冲击反应是正向的，但程度也是非常有限，但长期来看这种影响会越来越大。     

基于面板单位根检验的失业率结构突变研究

面板数据由于包含截面和时期提供了更多的信息,可以更好地分离出其中的随机成分而提高单位根检验的精度,考虑面板中的结构突变则可以进一步提高结论的准确性.通过构造基于结构突变的面板单位根检验方法,选取经合组织中具有代表性的15个国家年度失业率数据进行的实证分析表明:失业率指标为平稳性变量,在考虑结构突变时面板数单位根检验水平有了显著的提高,这为研究经济变量的平稳性,特别在观测期较短的情况下,提供了一种有效的研究手段.     

全球金融危机对全球应对气候变化进程的影响

美国次贷危机进一步加深,并推动全球经济衰退。本文分析了该危机对全球应对气候变化进程造成的影响,随后对基于排放交易体系和碳市场对未来全球应对气候变化进行了展望,最后,提出了我国的思考,主要是:正确认识金融危机的短期性与应对气候变化的长期性;正确认识金融危机对我国应对气候变化进程带来的挑战与机遇;迅速抓住机遇,有步骤推进我国低碳经济转型;探索适合我国特色的低碳经济促进型的金融体系。     

Market timing: A global endeavor

This paper employs daily fund and index data, the classical Treynor and Mazuy timing model, and two multi-factor extensions to measure the market timing ability of global asset allocation funds. These funds differ from traditional global or international funds in that they face fewer investment constraints and are known to actively shift funds across a wide variety of asset classes. When using the classical Treynor and Mazuy timing models, I find evidence of poor market timing ability. However, this evidence disappears when timing ability is examined using two multi-factor models. The results from Treynor and Mazuy are spurious since both multi-factor extensions do a much better job in explaining the variation in average fund returns.     

The moon–mars initiative: Making the vision real

During the Apollo period, NASA functioned as a destination driven agency, with its efforts focused on reaching the Moon. Since 1973, however, NASA has had no overriding goal, instead functioning as a constituency-driven bureaucracy doling out dollars for an assortment of random programs that do not fit together and do not lead anywhere. As a result, despite NASA budgets over the past two decades fully comparable to the average prevalent during the Apollo period, the space agency's level of accomplishment has been orders of magnitude less. This article discusses the difference between NASA's Apollo era and Shuttle era modes of operation, making clear why NASA needs a goal and why that goal must be humans to Mars.     

社会保障供给中政府间责权配置研究

长期以来,我国社会保障制度面临的一大突出难题就是各级政府提供社会保障的责权不分。合理划分各级政府在社会保障供给中的责任和权力,已经成为我国社会保障制度进一步改革与完善的关键。本文将以财政分权理论为基础,借鉴西方发达国家的经验,结合中国的现实情况,对于如何合理划分各级政府在社会保障供给中的责权,提出若干政策建议。     

Learnability and monetary policy: A global perspective

The recent literature on monetary policy design has emphasized the importance of equilibrium determinacy and learnability in the choice of policy rules. This paper contains an analysis of the learnability of the equilibrium in a class of simple, micro-founded models in which the policy authority uses a Taylor-type monetary policy rule. Unlike previous analyses, the model economy is not linearized about a steady state—instead, a global perspective is adopted. Globally, the nonlinear model economy can possess rational expectations equilibria other than the steady state consistent with the inflation target of the monetary authorities. These include a second, low inflation ‘liquidity trap’ steady state, periodic equilibria, and sunspot equilibria. The main results in the paper characterize the conditions under which these alternative equilibria maybe stable under adaptive learning, even when the policy rule obeys the Taylor principle. The stability of multiple equilibria is associated with policy rules which are forecast-based. An important finding is that backward-looking Taylor-type policy rules can guarantee that the unique learnable equilibrium is the steady state associated with the inflation target of the monetary authority.