最后的达沃斯？

构建危机后的世界——这是2009年达沃斯论坛的正式名称。但没有美国参加，这个构建如何讨论？如果中国队不来，会议的质量也会大打折扣。但美国队没来，达沃斯论坛的品牌就大不如从前     

Social learning with differentiated products

Learning from friends is a key process by which consumers acquire information about available products. This article embeds social learning in a model of firms producing differentiated products. I consider how the structure of social relationships between consumers influences pricing and welfare. In particular, how a variety of characteristics of social networks ‐ distribution of friendships, homophily, clustering, and correlations between an individual's preferences and number of friends ‐ influence these outcomes. I also find conditions under which consumer awareness and the sensitivity of demand to prices are useful measures of the informational efficiency of markets.     

评估社会风险的程序：以恩上公路改造工程为例

恩上公路改造工程的风险包括居民方面的住所安全、环境质量下降、房屋经济价值下降等，沙头角林场、恩上村村民、政府方面也面临相应风险，可划分等级进行管理。     

Social learning and health plan choice

I use data from the University of California to empirically examine the role of social learning in employees' choices of health plans. The basic empirical strategy starts with the observation that if social learning is important, health plan selections should appear to be correlated across employees within the same department. Estimates of discrete choice models in which individuals' perceived payoffs are influenced by coworkers' decisions reveal a significant (but not dominant) social effect. The strength of the effect depends on factors such as the department's size or the employee's demographic distance from her coworkers. The estimated effects are present even when the model allows for unobserved, department-specific heterogeneity in employee preferences, so the results cannot be explained away by unobservable characteristics that are common to employees of the same department.     

Machine learning as an early warning system to predict financial crisis

This paper studies on “Early Warning Systems” (EWS) by investigating possible contagion risks, based on structured financial networks. Early warning indicators improve standard crisis prediction models performance. Using network analysis and machine learning algorithms we find evidence of contagion risk on the dates where we observe significant increase in correlations and centralities. The effectiveness of machine learning reached 98.8%, making the predictions extremely accurate. The model provides significant information to policymakers and investors about employing the financial network as a useful tool to improve portfolio selection by targeting assets based on centrality.     

第二届中国中部金融论坛

随着结构性调整占据各大媒体头条,金融已成为关系国计民生的日常话题。在中部长沙,金融更成为这座城市实现“中国梦”的核心动力。     

The effectiveness of interactive professional learning experiences as a pedagogical tool: Evidence from an audit setting

This paper describes an interactive professional learning experience (IPLE) and provides guidance for implementing an IPLE in an audit classroom. The IPLE described in this paper exposes students to a realistic practice environment within the classroom by bringing practitioners together with students in a professional supervisory setting. Practitioners review students’ work and then meet with students one-on-one to provide feedback on their work. We also document evidence of the pedagogical value of an IPLE by using a between-subjects experimental design in which learning outcomes for participants are compared to a control group that received the same instructions and completed the same written assignment, but did not participate in the professional interaction. In addition, pre- and posttests of students’ audit knowledge allowed for a within-subjects self-assessment of knowledge acquisition. The results strongly suggest that participation in the IPLE improves students’ performance on a skills test of relevant audit material and increases their self-perceptions of knowledge gained. In addition, results indicate that both students and audit professionals consider the IPLE a positive professional learning experience.     

思想在对话中碰撞《银行家》第一届"名家论坛"观点集萃

关于宏观调控 王大用:执行一种政策,运用什么工具,要着眼于手中有的,而不是书上写的。 最近出现了一个认识误区:较之价格调控,数量控制是一种落后的手段,数量调控是指的对信贷、对货币供应量的调控,价格调控指的是对利率的调节,中国不懂得用利率手段对经济进行调节。我觉得这个说法是毫无根据的。执行货币政策运用什么工具,首先必须分析自己的实际情况,其次是要看     

Liquidity as Social Expertise

This paper proposes a theory of liquidity dynamics. Illiquidity results from asymmetric information. Observing the historical track record teaches agents how to interpret public information and helps overcome information asymmetry. However, an illiquidity trap can arise: too much asymmetric information leads to the breakdown of trade, which interrupts learning and perpetuates illiquidity. Liquidity falls in response to unexpected events that lead agents to question their valuation models (especially in newer markets) may be slow to recover after a crisis, and is higher in periods of stability.     

世界各国社会保障税的现状与发展趋势

对实行社会保障税国家的统计 根据库柏·赖布兰特公司汇编的<1998年国际税收概述>(INTERNATIONAL TAX SUM-MARIES)列举的124个国家(地区.下同)税制中,实行社会保障税(含工资税、社保费、社会税、社保捐等)的国家有108个.     

Tunneling as an incentive for earnings management during the IPO process in China

Using a sample of 185 Chinese IPO firms listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange during the period 1999–2001, we show that related-party (RP) sales of goods and services could be used opportunistically to manage earnings upwards in the pre-IPO period. We also provide evidence that such behavior may be motivated by the prospect of tunneling opportunities in the post-IPO period, i.e., exploiting economic resources from minority shareholders for the benefit of the parent company. We provide evidence of one such opportunistic tunneling tool: non-repayment by Chinese parent companies of net outstanding corporate loans made to them by their newly listed subsidiaries. Furthermore, we provide evidence in support of our assertion of an association between such tunneling behavior in the post-IPO period and earnings management via abnormal RP sales in the pre-IPO period. Finally, we demonstrate the apparent failure of investors in Chinese IPOs to perceive the link between the two phenomena. The results enhance understanding of the motives for and consequences of earnings manipulation during the IPO process. They highlight a potential additional investment risk facing foreign investors in China’s capital markets as well as in Chinese firms cross-listed in non-Chinese stock exchanges, and have policy implications for China and other emerging markets which need to improve the protection of minority shareholders’ rights.     

Board composition as the outcome of an internal bargaining process: empirical evidence

The traditional financial economics view of the determinants of board composition is based on outside shareholders' demand for external monitoring of management. In comparison, Hermalin and Weisbach (American Economic Review, 88 (1998) 96) model board composition as the outcome of a bargaining process between the CEO and the rest of the board. The model predicts, inter alia, that the bargaining power of the CEO relative to the rest of the board of directors will determine the level of independence of the board and the extent of board monitoring. This study tests Hermalin and Weisbach's model using a random sample of companies that are subject to limited regulatory constraints in relation to board composition and a common set of corporations regulations that may indirectly affect board composition. There is strong evidence that representation by outside directors varies inversely with CEO bargaining power, which is proxied by CEO tenure and inside shareholdings. An extension of the argument of Hermalin and Weisbach to board leadership is also tested. The results indicate that the appointment of the chairman of the board is also the outcome of a bargaining process between the CEO and the rest of the board with more powerful CEOs likely to hold the position of Chairman of the board. Together, these results suggest that more “powerful” CEOs are relatively entrenched and face fewer constraints and less monitoring than other CEOs. This evidence has potential relevance to current debates in relation to the need to control the number or proportion of outside directors.     

The internet as an information intermediary

The internet is an enormous and growing source of information for investors about the opinions of others. Virtually any individual with internet access can express opinions about firms and editorialize about company news. However, to date we know very little about the impact these nontraditional internet intermediaries have on markets. We develop a framework wherein internet information intermediaries fall along a spectrum of professionalism and document a nuanced relationship between coverage by these intermediaries and capital market effects. Using a novel dataset that tracks coverage of companies by individuals posting on thousands of websites, we find that coverage by professional and semi-professional intermediaries is associated with positive capital market effects but coverage by nonprofessional internet intermediaries has the opposite effect—hindering price formation. The detrimental effects of nonprofessional coverage are observed most strongly when the intermediaries have larger audiences.     

The World economy

The World Economy And The West German Economy In The Autumn Of 1987

The World economy