WHO''s health futures consultation

The World Health Organization's 1993 consultation on health futures examined the field from perspectives of the macro-environment, health status, health resources, emerging health technology, alternative care systems, and tools for health futures research. The consultation produced numerous suggestions about how WHO could promote and support health futures work. Among the ideas now being implemented are new efforts in global surveillance of infectious diseases, the publication of health futures articles, the establishment of an electronic health futures bulletin board, and preparation of a handbook for health futures studies.     

Design futures in action: Documenting experiential futures for participatory audiences

The futures field demonstrates a willing openness in embracing methodologies, approaches, and influences from a diversity of disciplines and perspectives. This plurality of practice is evidenced in a growing body of work that increasingly embodies futures thinking in the design of everyday material and networked experiences. The intersection of design and futures produces artifacts, applications and interactions created to provoke dialog in an accessible manner. As part of the Futures special issue on the Emerge: Artists and Scientists Redesign the Future event, this article describes the documentation and public representation of the creative outcomes from nine Emerge design futures workshops. These workshops provided a rich opportunity to study how designers and futurists collaboratively engage, implement and communicate alternative futures. The goal of the documentation effort described is to capture the experience of creating experiential futures and extend the capacity for developing social foresight through a participatory exhibit and online social platform.     

Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst

By the early 21st century, Futures Studies (FS) had developed into a globe-spanning meta-discipline with a range of methodologies, a rich literature and a substantial knowledge base. A small, but growing, number of universities around the world provided advanced degrees in FS. Yet, in spite of the wide use of futures methods such as the Delphi technique, trend analysis and scenario planning in pursuit of corporate strategies, substantive futures perspectives focused on long-range civilizational concerns remained underdeveloped or absent within most organizations and environments. This paper considers the rise of FS during the 20th century, some implications for FS of what I have called the ‘civilizational challenge’ and a number of strategies that may be used to increase the take-up and effectiveness of futures work over coming decades. The paper takes the view that the ultimate goal of FS at this time is to help create the foundations of a new civilization.     

Women of tomorrow : Issues and alternative futures

Although futures studies literature includes writings in perhaps every major topical field wherein analysis of the future is warranted, little has been written about futures for women. This essay critiques one widely distributed book exploring a single future for women. A call is made for the creation of more elaborate visions of futures for women, and outlines of two alternative futures for women in the USA are offered.     

Bridges over troubled waters: Observations on the futures work of Eleonora Masini

It is really an expedition to study the work of a person you think you somehow know. In this commentary I try to apply my female point of view into the work of Eleonora Masini, one of the most outstanding female futures researchers and a person who has left a deep footprint in the futures research culture of our planet. The material is vast and, for me, the more impressive the unknown continents of the work of this bridge builder seems the more one learns. The areas which I try to cover are first her work as bridge builder among futures researchers as well as between researchers and activists from every continent. Basically this work seems to maintain threads of a global aspect and an ethical touch and creates forums where people can have discussions on an equal basis. This approach has much in common with the principles of the Club of Rome where she was invited as one of the first female members of the club. As a bridge builder for female futures researchers and activists she has gifted a great model through her own activity; she has educated and encouraged lots of women in the field. To give a futures perspective, I discuss a few of those problems she has brought up, but which have not been discussed as much as they deserve. The problems I pose are, first, the division between the culture of care and the culture of control, by now also divided into the female and the male culture. The dominance of the culture of control has caused the problem of useless people. Second is the role of everyday life and households in the world economy. The third is that futures studies has neglected to study the everyday futuring or anticipation of ordinary people. The fourth problem concerns the missing discussion about the future in terms of feminine worldviews.     

Futures-thinking and identity: Why “Futures Studies” is not a field, discipline, or discourse: a response to Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

The term we use to describe the study or research of the future or futures is indeed important, and “futures studies” is preferable, although there is considerable dispute as to who and what is involved. Even more important is the far deeper problem of defining the “we” and what “we” in fact do. Futures studies not only considers wickedly complex problems, but it is itself a wicked entity, with many puzzles and contradictions. To illustrate, a taxonomy of 12 types of futurists, first articulated in 1985, is revisited, with special emphasis on the relative handful of Synoptic Generalists, the larger category of Specialized Futurists, the still larger entity of Futurized Specialists, and the largest entity of Closet Futurists who think about futures-often in a leading-edge way-but do not identify at all with futures studies, or are seen as futurists. Most contributors to Futures and other futures journals, as well as listees in the 2000 Futurist Directory, appear to have a secondary “futurist” identity at best. The fuzzy entity of “futures studies” is thus quite unlike any field or discipline, because it is easily entered by specialists who identify with the entity weakly, while many of the most important futures-thinkers are outside the entity. Instead of denying this paradox, the reality should be acknowledged, and an alterative paradigm for “futures studies” should be seriously considered.     

Towards an Integral renewal of systems methodology for futures studies

This article considers the use of systems methodology in futures studies and foresight, in relation to Slaughter's call for Integral methodological renewal in futures studies. The diversified methodologies that have developed within the systems practice field over the past 25 years are examined for their potential to address concerns about the field's reduction of interior realities to epiphenomena of systemic processes, articulated by Habermas in the 1970s, and more recently by Wilber from the perspective of his Integral Methodological Pluralism. It is argued, though, that Integral methodology requires more than methodological pluralism: some understanding of the structures of consciousness within which methodologies are conceived and applied is needed. Drawing on the work of Dr. Susanne Cook-Greuter, capacity to understand “system” itself is explored, looking at the way that humans make sense of reality and the stages through which this sense-making develops. It is argued that systems methods and tools used with sufficient practitioner awareness of epistemological biases have an essential role to play in improving the quality of our futures perception and knowledge.     

Futures trading and supply contracting in the oil refining industry

This paper examines the relation between commodity futures trading and the real side contracting behavior of firms dealing in the commodity. I argue that futures serve as a flexible form of physical contracting and should be examined in the context of the firm's contracting activities, and not strictly in the context of its financial activities. Data from an oil refining company are used to empirically study this relation. The results are consistent with a contracting view of futures use and appear inconsistent with implications of hedging theories.     

Youth and the WFSF: a generational approach

This paper examines the role of generational change in the emergence and continuity of the WFSF, generational change as situated through macro-historical perspectives, generational value shifts and their implications for the WFSF, and asymmetries and potentialities revealed through youth futures literature. It argues that the development of the WFSF in the longer term will require a generational approach that incorporates greater youth and student participation.     

Political implications of a look-out institution

The rapid institutionalisation of futures research is making it an increasingly political affair. Dr Starling explores the politics of futures research from several institutional perspectives, and favours an establishment linked with the policy-making process on a governmental level. The potential implications of the look-out institution's connections with the administration, the legislature and the political organisations are discussed, and its function of “freeing the political imagination” is defined.     

Linking foresight and sustainability: An integral approach

This paper looks at the growing confluence between sustainability thinking and futures thinking. Drawing on developments based on Integral Theory, it then looks at how an emerging Integral Sustainability (IS) promises to enhance theory and practice in the sustainability field. In particular, the paper looks at how IS makes sense of sustainability challenges from an ontological position based on perspectives in place of objects (and their systems). A framework is outlined for understanding how various sustainability perspectives are constructed. This framework is then used to analyse a range of general perspectives the authors have identified that relate to nuclear power as a response to climate change. The strength of the IS approach is considered in the context of ongoing debate in Australia over the appropriateness of developing a local nuclear power industry as a response to climate change.     

The changing pattern of futures research in the USA

Although mainly confined to ‘formal’ work in the field, a recent survey of futures research in the United States does show that a considerable number of changes have occurred. There have been major shifts in the orientation and focus of work being done, in the range of disciplines involved, and in the overall relationship of the field to the larger society. However, the earlier assessment¹ and its critical evaluation of the range and content of futures research remains valid in broad outline. The specific differences which emerge from this second study are discussed from several viewpoints.     

Gender in futures: A study of gender and feminist papers published in Futures, 1969-2009

This paper reviews and discusses papers related to women's studies, gender or feminist perspectives, published in the scientific journal Futures. The aim is to provide new understandings and remapping of futures studies by capturing how gender is created and understood in this field. The gender/feminist criticism of futures studies mainly relates to the field being male-dominated and male biased, which means that the future is seen as already colonised by men. When synthesising the insights from all 78 papers focusing on futures studies and feminism, gender or women, four conclusions are especially striking: (1) Women and non-Westerners are generally excluded from professional futures studies activities and so are feminist issues or issues of particular relevance for women. (2) Futures studies usually make no attempts to reveal underlying assumptions, i.e. often lack a critical and reflexive perspective, which is needed in order to add a critical feminist perspective and envision feminist futures. (3) Feminist futures are needed as a contrast to hegemonic male and Western technology-orientated futures. Feminist futures are diverse, but focus the well-being of all humans. (4) Futures studies often view women as victims, rather than as drivers for change, which means that their alternative futures are often ignored.     

Implications of two new paradigms for futures studies

The paper considers the emergence of two recent perspectives in futures work. One is evolutionary futures studies. The other is critical futures studies. After describing aspects of each, the paper considers them as alternative rival paradigms in relation to criteria that include: the role of the human being as subject, the role of interpretation and differences in methodological premises. It concludes that both have contributed to the development of futures methods but that a number of theoretical and methodological problems still remain unsolved.     

Heart of the dragon: Metaphor use in futures thinking in Taiwan

This article explores metaphors in the teaching of futures studies in Taiwan. Metaphors are divided into those that describe current reality and those that describe the future. For instance, the metaphor of the gold fish is used by students to illustrate the short attention span of the people, which attributed to recurring societal crises. A transformative metaphor example is for the library—from a fort that passively awaits worships to fire that actively passes knowledge to people. The article concludes with the benefits of using metaphors in futures thinking.     

Visioning 2035: The future of the higher education sector in the UK

The concept of ‘university’ has been around for centuries and yet the majority of British Universities have yet to reach their 50th birthday. The higher education sector has been through extensive change over a relatively short period of time and this is likely to continue in the future. This paper presents the results of a futures study focussed on the Higher Education sector in the UK in 10 and 25 years time. Following an extensive, broad ranging literature review covering business, education, futures, and socio-political texts and studies, a series of scenarios were developed for the future of the sector as a whole. This study differs from other studies in its field as it is does not focus on individual institutions, but rather at the environmental factors that are going to impact on the sector, setting out a range of scenarios within which institutions will need to shape their individual futures. Five scenarios are presented in this paper with their underlying driving factors, and their implications for the academic workforce being employed in the sector.     

Dominance,stakeholders’ moves and leadership shifts: New directions for transforming futures

Futures literature invites researchers to investigate stakeholders’ interests, actions and reactions, as well as to introduce an analysis of power and influence in scenario thinking. The purpose of this paper is to assess how the concept of dominance can help to improve scenario building and futures thinking as dominance transforms leadership within action processes. First, we examine power at work at different levels using concepts that relate to dominance and leadership shifts. Secondly, we discuss methodological proposals to implement the concepts of weak and strong dominance in action-based scenarios design and the implications of theses concepts for refining the approach of leadership in futures thinking. We conclude that paying attention to dominance transformations in scenarios is a promising direction to develop stakeholder and leadership analysis in scenario thinking. We suggest further research on the connection between history and futures thinking.     

Policy metaphors: From the tuberculosis crusade to the obesity apocalypse

In this paper we examine the conceptual and political work that metaphors do, with particular regard to how they construct problems and thus in turn limit the range of solutions.¹ Common metaphors in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia are examined (war, disease and crime metaphors, and the economy and nation as a body) by analysing historical and modern texts about the policy issues of tuberculosis, immigration, asylum seeking, welfare, obesity and food insecurity. Through this we show that metaphors, in conjunction with discourses, may work to: naturalise and privilege certain constructions of problems; attribute blame and responsibility; support claims about the urgency and extent of required intervention (and who should deliver it, to whom and how); influence the identification and consideration of solutions by constructing the problem in particular ways; intentionally or unintentionally result in stigmatisation and non-trivial discrimination (social and workplace); and erase or highlight the role of actors, processes, social relations and systems. Vallis has developed the analysis, the bulk of the paper, and Inayatullah has articulated the theoretical links to causal layered analaysis (CLA). While there are multiple ways to use CLA, in this paper we use CLA to map a number of issues accross perspectives and frames, and to deconstruct creating the possibility for alternative futures. We do not explore alternative or preferred futures.     

Futures studies in the 21st Century: a reality-based view

Futures-thinking in various ways may or may not be expanding. But it is clearly an ever-changing activity, and appears to be ever more fragmented by culture, subject matter, style, and ideology. ‘Futures Studies (FS)’ as a subset of this larger activity is highly problematic as a viable entity, due to seven disabling myths: that FS is a field, that futurists are generalists, that futurists are primarily ‘futurists’, that FS does what no one else does, that FS is generally understood and appreciated, that FS is static, and that FS is a community. In contrast to these idealized but unsupported myths, the world of futures-thinking is presented as it really is, based on the author’s preparation of over 20,000 abstracts of futures-relevant literature over the past 30 years. Underlying complexity and wide diversity are sketched in three synoptic charts on the six purposive categories of futures-thinking (and 115 different terms that have been used), 17 general topical categories, and 12 generic continua on which futures-thinkers can be located. Based on this complex and fuzzy reality, futures studies should embrace its distinctiveness and strive to be a horizontal field connecting all others—a visible, respected, and ever-renewing network of humble hubs for integrative ‘big picture’ thinking about trends and visions of probable, possible, and preferable futures. To attain this status in the decades ahead, FS must communicate a shared and frequently-revised vision, emphasize all six purposive categories (especially integration and questioning), develop a serious global information system (and use it), establish an academic presence at leading institutions, fight back against ignorant futurist-bashers, promote multiple excellences, engage in ‘second profession’ recruitment and training, and secure adequate funding. These actions are necessary for establishing any meaningful ‘futures studies’ community.