旁地产价格增长是否阻碍城镇化进程——基于我国31个省级单位面板数据的经验分析

通过对我国31个省级单位面板数据进行实证研究，发现从全国整体来看，房地产价格上涨对城镇化进程体现出正向促进作用，但是根据地区层级上的分析，在中西部地区房地产价格增长对城镇化具有显著的负向抑制作用。可见，现阶段房地产价格显然在阻碍城乡间劳动力要素流动方面扮演了重要角色。不断增长的房价增加了城镇化成本，对于农村劳动力转移起到阻碍作用。因此，为了保障新型城镇化的实现，必须通过土地、财政、金融等制度变革与其他市场化手段相结合，遏制房地产价格继续过快上涨，从而实现房地产市场与新型城镇化的协调发展。     

住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高,这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出,以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态,本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术,分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响,并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现,住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响,且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断,能够较好地反映市场转折点。     

School quality and housing prices: Empirical evidence from a natural experiment in Shanghai,China

The endogeneity of education quality and quantity accounts for difficulties in appropriately identifying the causal relationship between education and housing prices. To determine how education quality is capitalized into housing prices, we deal with endogeneity bias by employing a natural experiment occasioned by China’s education reforms. Based on monthly panel data for 52 residential areas in Shanghai, we conducted a natural experiment based on the exogenous designation of specific high-quality schools as Experimental Model Senior High Schools (EMSHS). Our natural experiment proved useful in analyzing how new information affected housing prices in China’s developing housing market. We found evidence that housing prices included allowances for these new EMSHS designations. In general, the presence of an additional EMSHS (of the best quality) per square kilometer increases housing prices by 17.1%. If one additional, previously non-designated high school is designated as EMSHS in a residential area, housing prices will be 6.9% higher.     

地价与房价关系探析

在对房地产市场结构、运行模式分析的基础上,分析并阐述地价与房价之间的关系。为了清楚揭示这二者之间的关系,首先对“地价是否是房价的决定因素”这个问题进行了探讨,并在此基础上从市场角度出发,沿着市场→房价→地价这条主线,揭示在市场作用下受供求关系的影响房价不断攀升,而且有力推动地价上涨。接着,继续研究地价、房价的变动对房地产市场所产生的影响,揭示了当前地价、房价的上涨不但没有降低需求热度,反而使开发商和购房者的购买欲更旺,市场的供求差距进一步拉大,以此形成一个循环正反馈链。最后,针对房价上涨,对中央政府和地方政府的协调行为提出了几点建议。     

房产税对房产市场影响的实证研究——上海模式和重庆模式的比较

文章首先运用HP滤波的方式分析了沪渝两地房产税对新房和二手房在价格和成交量上的影响,发现上海房地产市场对房产税的的征收反应更为理性,影响效果更好,但两地区新房和二手房市场的反映都存在差异;此外,利用房价对数模型,发现房产税都能有效的影响两地的房价,但由于影响两地房价的因素有很大的差异,效率并不一样,上海地区房产税每增加1%,房价将下降0.553%,重庆地区房产税每增加1%,房价将下降0.041%。因此国家需区别对待新房和二手房市场,并且因地制宜,推广不同的房产税模式。     

投资者信念异质性和适应性对股市价格的影响

考察了异质性信念、具有适应性的交易者相互作用下股市价格行为。通过数字模拟,分析实际市场上常用的价值分析和技术分析策略对价格动力学的作用,说明不同参数对价格行为的影响。     

A股与H股价格差异的影响因素分析

本文选取了在A股和H股市场上发行的前十大股票,通过观察其在两个市场上的不同发行价,在考虑到两个市场近乎独立分割的大背景下,指出两者间价差存在的影响因素主要在于市场流动性、定价基础和风险性这三个方面。     

黄金期货价格与我国黄金采选业股票价格关系的实证研究——以山东黄金股票价格为例

本文通过对我国黄金期货价格和相关股票价格之间关系的研究,试图把握其内在规律,为相关行业、企业、市场参与者和市场监管部门提供有价值的市场信息,从而可以正确认识我国目前黄金期货市场的价格发现功能,以及股票市场的运行效率。     

Effects of macroeconomic factors on stock prices for BRICS using the variational mode decomposition and quantile method

Based on the variational mode decomposition and quantile model, this article examines the response of BRICS stock prices to shocks of internal and external macroeconomic factors in different market states and over various investment horizons. The results of quantile regression show that the influence of each factor is complex and changeable across countries, market states, and time horizons, thus exhibiting obvious differences. Nevertheless, these coefficients also show a certain degree of similarity. Besides, we find the relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables behaved notably differently during the financial crisis in 2008 compared to other periods. Therefore, paying attention to the investment horizon and market state has extraordinary significance for various market participants.     

房地产市场非理性运势形成机理及其破难建制研究

自1998年停止福利分房、推行住房商品化以来,中国房地产市场全面复苏。近10年来,在连续多年保持高速增长的发展态势下,全国各城市地价、房价均出现大幅上涨,尽管从2005年开始,政府不断进行宏观调控,但仍然难抑上涨趋势。本文以杭州为例,运用房地产市场正反馈交易理论探讨城市房地产市场非理性运势形成机理及其破难建制,为政府宏观调控房地产市场提供科学依据。     

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and housing price at the macro-level in China as a developing country. The empirical evidence indicates that EPU has a leading effect on China’s housing market. In general, the housing market is prosperous when economic policy is stable and there is a positive relationship between housing price variation and EPU, which means housing market risk grows under unstable economic policies in this developing economy. Moreover, economic policy variation affects low-amplitude changes in housing prices. A variation of policy uncertainty enhances the risk premium of the housing market. By contrast, the level of EPU influences high-amplitude changes in housing prices, which reflects the trend of EPU dominating China's housing market.     

北京：人口剧增背景下的房价综合治理

北京市人口呈现爆炸式增长,有观点认为应放任房价上涨以此解决人口问题。本文从分析北京市近年来人口变动情况及北京市房价现状入手,分析“高房价抑制人口增长论”,提出解决人口剧增的根本性办法是加快城乡统筹,从宏观层面予以解决。在北京市人口剧增的背景下,北京房价的调控措施应该包括坚持限购政策、开征房产税、加大保障性住房建设、打击市场上垄断投机、骗购骗租等不良行为。     

Estimating the Accounting Price of Foreign Exchange: An Input–Output Approach

When adjustments in the foreign exchange market involve changes in the production of marginally traded goods, the traditional formula for calculating the accounting (shadow) price of foreign exchange assumes that domestic prices and marginal costs at efficiency prices for those goods are equal. In this paper, a method is proposed for estimating an accounting price ratio of foreign exchange in a partial equilibrium framework, abandoning that assumption. For that purpose, input–output techniques are used, to take into account the effets of changes in the production of traded goods.     

房地产市场非理性运势形成机理及其破难建制研究

自1998年停止福利分房、推行住房商品化以来，中国房地产市场全面复苏。近10年来，在连续多年保持高速增长的发展态势下，全国各城市地价、房价均出现大幅上涨，尽管从2005年开始，政府不断进行宏观调控，但仍然难抑上涨趋势。本文以杭州为例，运用房地产市场正反馈交易理论探讨城市房地产市场非理性运势形成机理及其破难建制，为政府宏观调控房地产市场提供科学依据。     

Commodity market reform in Africa: some recent experience

Since the early 1980s, dramatic changes in export commodity markets, shocks associated with resulting price declines and changing views on the role of the state have ushered in widespread reforms to agricultural commodity markets in Africa. The reforms significantly reduced government participation in the marketing and pricing of commodities. This paper examines the background, causes, process and consequences of these reforms and derives lessons for successful reforms from experiences in markets for four commodities important to Africa—cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar. The commodity focus of the paper highlights the special features associated with these markets that affect the reform process. The paper complements the current literature on market reforms in Africa, where grain market studies are more common. We suggest that the types of market interventions prior to reform are more easily classified by crop than by country. Consequently, there are significant commodity-specific differences in the initial conditions and in the outcomes of reforms related to these markets. However, there are general lessons as well. We find that the key consequences of reform have been significant changes in or emergence of marketing institutions, and a significant shift of political and economic power from public to private sector. In cases where interventions were greatest and reforms most complete, producers have benefited from receiving a larger share of export prices. Additionally, we conclude that the adjustment costs of reform can be reduced in most cases by better understanding the detailed and idiosyncratic relationships between the commodity subsector, private markets, and public services. Finally, while there are significant costs to market-dependent reforms, experiences suggest that they are a necessary step toward a dynamic commodity sector based on private initiative. Indeed, this is particularly true in countries and sectors where interventions were greatest and market-supporting institutions the weakest.     

Housing market dynamics: Evidence of mean reversion and downward rigidity

House prices often exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. Using two large panel datasets, this paper analyzes the price dynamics in two significantly different types of markets, cyclical (or volatile) and non-cyclical (or tame), by applying an autoregressive mean reversion (ARMR) model. Our results show that cyclical markets have larger AR coefficients than non-cyclical markets. As a result, house prices in cyclical markets tend to have larger price cycles. We also find that the upward periods have larger AR coefficients than the downward periods. This demonstrates that house prices are likely to overshoot the equilibrium in appreciating markets while experiencing downward rigidity during periods of decline. The model developed in this paper can produce a forecast with rich house price dynamics across markets. Our results can also be used to determine how house prices in overvalued markets will ultimately adjust.     

The policy environment and relative price efficiency of Egyptian private sector manufacturing: 1987/88–1995/96

We study the impact of policy and institutional constraints, and reforms undertaken to remedy them, on relative price efficiency and cost of the private manufacturing sector of Egypt. We undertake this study using a generalized cost function, which subsumes the standard neoclassical cost function as a special case. This approach allows us to assess the impact of such constraints, which include labor market, energy and financial sector ones, on relative prices and the structure of production, including factor demands, shares and cost. Our findings indicate the presence of substantial distortions in relative prices, and hence on cost, due to the policy environment. We also find improvements in relative price efficiency and cost performance as a result of policy reforms initiated to remove the constraints. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic interaction of risk–return trade-offs between oil market and China’s stock market: An analysis from the risk preferences perspective

The risk–return trade-off refers to the compensation required by investors for bearing risks, which can be viewed as the risk preference of investors in a market. The current study investigates the dynamic interdependence of risk–return trade-offs between China’s stock market and the crude oil market from the perspective of risk preference of investors, which is designed to explore the transmission process of investors’ risk preference in both markets. Specifically, this study applies the time-varying parameter GARCH-M model, namely TVP-GARCH-M model, to characterize the time-dependent risk–return trade-offs (investors’ risk preferences) in the crude oil and China’s stock markets, then examines their relationship through Granger causality tests. Results show that a variation in risk preferences of the oil market investors can dramatically cause a variation in risk preferences of the Chinese stock market investors, while the risk preference of investors in the Chinese stock market does not lead to that in the crude oil market, which is in accordance with expectations. The dynamic effect of investors’ risk appetite in the crude oil market is further examined by the TVP-VAR model. The findings of this work suggest that there generally exists a positive impact of investors’ risk preference in the oil market and that the effect is time-varying to a greater degree during the short and medium term. Moreover, responses of the Chinese stock market investors’ risk preference were more significant during the 2008 financial crisis. Additionally, the empirical results remain robust when applying alternative crude oil prices and China’s stock prices.     

通过供求机制影响房价的因素研究

经济学中,需求和供给的许多影响因素都是密切相关,互相作用的。房地产市场的供给和需求共同决定了房价,这表明了影响需求和供给的因素也都是间接的通过供需影响房价。本文研究了几种主要的通过供求机制影响房价的因素,分析了其影响机制和影响程度。     

我国四大城市住宅价格与租金的关系研究

近20年,我国城市住宅价格经历了大幅下跌与上涨,而同期租金逐年下降,房价与租金之间的关系令人关注。本文利用1993年第二季度至2010年第一季度的数据进行实证分析,结果表明北京、上海、广州和深圳的租金指数和房价指数之间不存在协整关系,说明住宅市场价格与租金不存在长期均衡关系,房价严重脱离了租金这一基本面的影响,不再遵循现值理论模型所揭示的两者之间的运行趋势,表明房价泡沫在长期积聚。为了预防市场泡沫破灭对经济体造成的严重冲击,政府应该严格监察与调控房地产市场。