Strategic location choice under dynamic oligopolistic competition and spillovers

This paper investigates firms׳ optimal location choices explicitly accounting for the role of inwards and outwards knowledge spillovers in a dynamic Cournot oligopoly with firms that are heterogeneous in their ability to carry out cost-reducing R&D. Firms can either locate in an industrial cluster or in isolation. Technological spillovers are exchanged between the firms located in the cluster. It is shown that a technological leader has an incentive to locate in isolation only if her advantage exceeds a certain threshold, which is increasing in firms׳ discount rate, in industry dispersion, and in the intensity of knowledge spillovers. Scenarios are identified where although it is optimal for the technological leader to locate in isolation, from a welfare perspective it would be desirable that she locates in the cluster.     

Attitudes of police managers to different leadership roles in their jobs: An empirical study in Norway

The background for this study is the increased complexity in policing that has become more knowledge‐based and more professional in the past decade. The aim of this article is to present empirical results from a study of attitudes of police managers to different leadership roles in their jobs in two police districts in Norway. A questionnaire was developed and administered among police managers in two police districts in Norway. Participants in leadership programs were selected for this survey research. The Follo police district and Hedmark police district had a total of 130 participants in these programs, with 60 managers from Follo and 70 managers from Hedmark. The research was carried out in March and April 2010. The personnel leader role was found to be most important, followed by the resource allocator role. Responding police managers reported that they felt least competent in the liaison role.     

Measuring a boom and bust: The Sydney housing market 2001–2006

The Sydney housing market peaked in 2003. The period 2001–2006 is, therefore, of particular interest since it captures a boom and bust in the housing market. We compute hedonic, repeat-sales and median price indexes for five regions in Sydney over this period. While the three approaches are in broad agreement regarding the timing of the turning point in the housing market, some important differences also emerge. In particular, we find evidence of sample selection bias in our hedonic and repeat-sales data sets (with the former focusing more on better quality dwellings and the latter more on lower quality dwellings). These sample selection biases could in turn cause bias (in opposite directions) in our hedonic and repeat-sales indexes. Median indexes may likewise be biased as a result of an apparent decline in the average quality of dwellings sold in the latter part of the sample. We also find evidence of convergence in prices across regions during the boom and divergence in the subsequent bust.     

WORLD OUTLOOK

At the end of 1982 output in the world economy was still falling, although there were signs that the decline had very nearly run its course. We expect a radual recovery to begin in the first half o f 1983. Unlike the recovery which began in the late summer of 1980, when inflation was still in double figures, any upturn in 1983 would be set against a background of declining inflationary expectations and weak oil prices. IJ. as we expect, a falling inflation rate proves a decisive factor in keeping interest rates on a downward path, we forecast that the output will gather pace in I983 and rise reasonably strongly in 1984. Of the 4 per cent rise in industrial production which we foresee in 1984. a large part is due to the fall in real oil prices.     

湖南省雷暴地闪特征初步分析

利用湖南省1980-2010年雷暴日数据、2008-2013年闪电数据,分析了湖南省雷暴和闪电变化特征。结果表明:湖南省属于雷暴多发区,年平均雷暴日数分布呈南高北低的趋势,沿雪峰山有个相对高值区,平均雷暴日数在30d到70d之间。湖南省6年的年平均闪电条数35万余条,雷电高发时段为4-9月,其中7月是全年闪电活动最密集的月份。春季(3-5月)闪电逐时分布呈现双峰型,高峰值出现在02时、17时,夏季(6-8月)闪电多集中在下午15-17时,秋季(9月)高峰期集中在15-16时。湖南省闪电密度分布和闪电强度分布,高值区均在娄底、郴州,全省闪电主要强度分布在20-80kA。     

Employment relations in small commercial businesses in China

There has been a growing interest in the way patterns of employment relations are changing in China. However, there remains insufficient understanding in employment relations in small private businesses. This study of small businesses in China explores major issues in employment relations in these firms. The finding shows that there are major differences between large and small businesses in China in their employment practices and that considerable similarities exist between small firms in China and those in other countries.     

A Conversation with James O. Ramsay

Jim Ramsay was born on September 5, 1942, in Prince George, British Columbia. He pursued undergraduate studies at the University of Alberta, where he completed a BEd in 1964 with a major in English and a minor in mathematics. He then specialized in statistics and psychometry, earning a PhD in psychology from Princeton University in 1966. After holding a temporary lectureship in the Department of Psychology at University College London for one year, he joined the Department of Psychology at McGill University, where he rose through the academic ranks. He was chair of his department from 1986 to 1989 and spent sabbatical leaves in Cambridge, Grenoble, and Toulouse. He was named professor emeritus upon his retirement in 2007. Jim is the author of four influential books and over 100 peer‐reviewed articles in statistical and psychometric journals. He developed much of the statistical theory behind multidimensional scaling and is widely recognized as the founder of functional data analysis. Three of his papers were read to the Royal Statistical Society, and another won The Canadian Journal of Statistics 2000 Best Paper Award. The Statistical Society of Canada (SSC) awarded him a Gold Medal for research in 1998 and an honorary membership in 2012. Jim was president of the Psychometric Society in 1981–82 and president of the SSC in 2002–03. The following conversation took place at Jim's home in Ottawa, Ontario, on March 14 and April 4, 2012.     

A Conversation with Jef Teugels

Jozef Lodewijk Maria Teugels was born in Londerzeel, Belgium, on February 20, 1939. He received his high school education at Sint-Lievenscollege in Antwerp. He obtained a Candidate diploma in Physics in 1961 and a License degree in Mathematics in 1963 at the Catholic University of Louvain. After serving one year in the army, he obtained his MSc in 1966 and his PhD in 1967 at Purdue University, with Marcel F. Neuts as advisor. In 1967 he was appointed at the Catholic University of Louvain and promoted to Full Professor in 1973. He remained in Leuven until his retirement in 2004. He chaired the Department of Mathematics over the periods 1970–77 and 1982–89. He has held visiting positions at numerous universities in the United Kingdom, Portugal, the United States of America, South Africa, Japan, Indonesia and Australia.     

WORLD OUTLOOK

The world economic recovery, which began in the late summer of 1980, can now be seen as premature, in as much as 1980's short, sharp recession had achieved only a limited reduction in the rate of inflation. Economic policy, particularly in the United States, is once more geared to a reduction in the inflation rate even if this imposes costs in terms of lost output and higher unemployment. The consequent appreciation of the US dollar against the European currencies has - in spite of weakening oil and non-oil commodity prices in dollar terms - produced a further boost to European inflation and a subsequent tightening of policy in some countries, notably West Germany. In these circumstances we expect little or no growth in output in the world economy until the summer of 1982.     

发展中国家的都市农业

在大量已有研究的基础上,系统地总结了发展中国家都市农业的性质、类型和特点,分析了其利弊和发展所面临的障碍,简要介绍了发展中国家对都市农业的研究活动,最后指出了发展中国家发展都市农业的必要性并提出了规范和引导其都市农业发展的对策。     

Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices

The recent deregulation in electricity markets worldwide has heightened the importance of risk management in energy markets. Assessing Value-at-Risk (VaR) in electricity markets is arguably more difficult than in traditional financial markets because the distinctive features of the former result in a highly unusual distribution of returns—electricity returns are highly volatile, display seasonalities in both their mean and volatility, exhibit leverage effects and clustering in volatility, and feature extreme levels of skewness and kurtosis. With electricity applications in mind, this paper proposes a model that accommodates autoregression and weekly seasonals in both the conditional mean and conditional volatility of returns, as well as leverage effects via an EGARCH specification. In addition, extreme value theory (EVT) is adopted to explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Compared to a number of other parametric models and simple historical simulation based approaches, the proposed EVT-based model performs well in forecasting out-of-sample VaR. In addition, statistical tests show that the proposed model provides appropriate interval coverage in both unconditional and, more importantly, conditional contexts. Overall, the results are encouraging in suggesting that the proposed EVT-based model is a useful technique in forecasting VaR in electricity markets.     

Savings and the Budget

The fall in the personal sector savings ratio to a record low last year has been a major factor behind the rapid growth of domestic demand in the past two years and the associated deterioration in the current account. It is also a major uncertainty in the Chancellor's Budget judgement. Existing econometric relationships for the consumption function have failed to predict the fall in personal savings over the past few years. Possible explanations include statistical error, the effects of financial deregulation, the housing boom, expectations of higher growth in incomes, and demographic influences. In this Viewpoint, we report on a new consumption function that successfully explains the decline in savings. It provides evidence of a major demographic influence resulting from the decline in the proportion of the population in the 45–64 age cohort, the main savers in society. Subsidiary effects arise from the boom in house prices, and statistical mis-measurement. The equation predicts an appreciable revival of savings over the next few years as the 45–64 age cohort grows again. These shifts in demographic structure reflect the after-effects of the Second World War. This new evidence suggests that the Chancellor has done quite enough to ensure a slowdown in consumption, and that he would be ill-advised to heed calls for special measures to boost savings. By contrast, well conceived tax changes that remove microeconomic distortions in the tax system (perhaps moving in the direction of an expenditure tax) would improve the tax structure, and may well increase the scope for tax cuts in future budgets. Our new consumption function also lends weight to the Chancellor's argument that the current account deficit is not a source of concern, insofar as it arises from a shift in savings associated with demographic changes that will be reversed in due course.     

A history of research in service operations: What's the big idea?

The purpose of this paper is to trace the history of research in service operations. After discussing the role of services in national economies and the importance of research in service operations, we discuss major trends in service operations research. For simplicity of exposition, this discussion is organized in terms of big ideas that have proved to be influential in setting the research agenda in service operations. In the final section, we identify high-potential research areas where research needs are particularly urgent in the near future.     

THE EFFECT OF POLICING STRATEGIES: EVIDENCE FROM THE USA

Changes in policing strategies in the USA during the 1990s coincided with a significant decline in crime, particularly in New York City. However, academic research has shown that policing strategies played a relatively minor role in reducing crime in comparison with other factors.     

Sex discrimination in selection and compensation in Taiwan

This article describes the current status of women in the workplace in Taiwan. Statistical evidence shows sex segregation in the labour market. Discriminatory practices in the hiring process are documented via a content analysis of 7,037 classified ads. Overtly discriminatory actions, such as blatantly stated gender requirements in the classified ads, are shown to be still common in hiring practices. Census data on a gender gap in compensation shows that women in Taiwan evidently get less pay than men do for the same work. The ratio of female to male employees is significantly and negatively correlated with the ratio of female to male in pay. The higher the percentages of women in an industry, the lower the pay women get compared to men. Also, the ratio of female to male in pay is negatively related to the turnover rate. Companies that pay women fairly tend to enjoy lower turnover rates. The implications of these women's issues in human resource management in Taiwan are presented.     

Election outcomes and financial market returns in Canada

This paper investigates the relationship between federal election outcomes and expected returns and volatilities in the Canadian money, bond, equity and currency markets from 1951 to 2006. There is little evidence that investment opportunities are different in minority versus majority parliaments and only money market returns differ in Conservative versus Liberal governments. The equity market performs better in the late part of the electoral cycle than in the first two years. Furthermore, the Canadian equity investment opportunities are better in Democratic versus Republican administrations and in the late versus early parts of the presidential electoral cycle. The Canadian dollar is also affected by American election outcomes. No apparent variation in risk or expected state of the economy accounts for the differences in returns.     

Tracing VARDI coefficients: a proposal

ABSTRACT

We propose a new approach for tracing the so-called ‘value-added-(re)distribution-important coefficients’ (in short the VARDI coefficients) in a world input–output model. From the perspective of a selected group of economies, VARDI coefficients may be defined as those elements in world input–output matrix in the case of which a small change in their levels leads to the maximization of a share of this group of economies in value added in global value chains. Due to the rapid development of the World Input Output Database, this approach may be easily applied in empirical research to different groups of countries and sectors in world IO models. In an illustrative empirical case study, we use the new approach in order to answer a question regarding what the main directions of the future macroeconomic policy of the U.S. could be in order to ensure the maximization of the country’s share in global value added.     

高校英语教育与区域经济发展的相互作用

英语作为一门国际化语言在21世纪的经济全球化大环境下扮演着桥梁与纽带的角色。无论是国际会议的召开,还是经济贸易的往来,在口语与书面用语中作为信息交流与传递的工具,都离不开英语这门语言。因此,大力发展英语教育对促进经济发展有重要作用。同时,经济的发展也能带动英语教育的发展。目前我国从事英语教育的培训机构数不胜数,已经从幼儿园到高等教育都在推广英语作为第二门应用语言,说明我们充分认识到英语在人才培养中的重要性以及未来英语人才在经济发展中的重要作用。     

WORLD OUTLOOK

Clear signs that the world recovery is underway have e merged in the first half of 1983. We have revised our forecast upwards and predict an increase of 1 3/4 per cent in OECD GNP in I983 and a further 3% per cent in 1984. By hirtorical standards such a recovery would be extremely modest and would not be expected to trigger off a resurgence in inflation. If so GNP could advance a further 2% per cent in each of I985 and 1986. However, there is a danger that the relaration of monetary policy in the US in conjunction with the expansionary fiscal stance will bring about a very rapid upswing in the second half of 1983, thereby generating upward pressures on US interest rates. If, as the Presidential election approaches, these pressures are resisted and US monetary growth maintains its recent rapid expansion, an increase in the rate of inflation would be likely in 1984. If this were met with a tighter policy response (higher interest rates both in the US and elsewhere) after the election, the prospects would be for a sharp slowdown in the world economy in 1985.     

应用立体化文献检索课模式提高读者服务水平

文章分析现阶段广西高职院校文献检索课存在的主要问题,通过对广西20所高职院校开设文献检索课的教学效果进行统计分析,结合现阶段文献检索教学特色,提出在广西区内高职院校的文献检索课中运用立体化教学模式以提高读者服务水平。