United States Demand for Indonesian Plywood 1

Indonesia's exports of plywood are the largest in the world and a leading source of foreign exchange earnings. Although the industry's growth has been rapid, several studies indicate that it has been subsidised both directly and indirectly. What are the prospects for Indonesia to offset these subsidies by raising plywood prices as its share of key import markets grows? This paper sheds light on this question by analyzing econometrically the United States' imports of Indonesian plywood from July 1979 to December 1986, using a monthly import demand model. The results suggest that Indonesia's rapid expansion into the US plywood market has been due primarily to its low plywood prices, and that attempts to raise prices relative to those of competing export regions would result in significant reductions in market share.     

亚太地区对美国出口、汇率波动及其影响

本文首先分析亚洲主要经济体对美国出口的商品构成,确定这些经济体在美国市场的竞争关系;利用日数据分析这些经济体货币的波动特点,采用协整技术建立汇率波动与对美国出口的数量关系。研究结果表明,汇率变化对出口贸易影响非常小,本币升值不可能减少经常项目的贸易顺差。     

基于CMS模型的印尼对中国园艺产品出口额增长因素分析

报告了印尼对中国园艺产品出口贸易的现状,采用2010-2014年UN COMTRADE数据,应用恒定市场份额模型（CMS模型）的简化形式,即单一市场份额模型分析印尼对中国园艺产品出口额增长的主要影响因素。结果表明印尼园艺产品出口额增长最主要的影响因素是竞争力效应,其次是结构效应,次结构效应的影响最小。从发展优势来看,商品竞争力效应和综合竞争力效应占主要的因素,其次是动态结构效应,最后是产品结构效应和增长效应。为了提高印尼园艺产品的出口额,建议印尼政府能够把出口原料转为出口半成品或最终产品,增加印尼园艺产品的出口附加值。     

The Incidence of Protection on Exports: The Case of Spain, 1870–1913

The aim of this article is to analyze the effects of tariffs on nonprotected sectors through an application of the model of tax incidence of protection to a country and period defined by Heckscher–Ohlin-type specialization and no relevant support to protect exporters, namely, Spain between 1870 and 1913. The consideration of such a case allows us to perform different specifications of the model, based on relative internal prices, through ADL methods that show a negative incidence of protection for exporters, softer in the short term by the influence of income and international prices, and stable through changes in trade policy.     

轮胎“特保案”美国的真正目的

背景 美国总统奥巴马9月11日宣布，对所有从中国进口的小轿车和轻型卡车轮胎实施惩罚性关税。 美国钢铁工人联合会今年4月以中国对美轮胎出口扰乱美国市场为由，向美国国际贸易委员会提出申请，对中国产乘用车轮胎发起特保调查。     

后冷战时期中国人对美国的看法与思考

冷战结束后,中国人对美国的看法是多方面、多层次的,包括对美国的政治、经济、文化、社会、思想、对外政策等等的认识,而且那些看法是变动不居的,要对他们在各个问题上的看法作出准确的统计和精确的判断,是相当困难的.如果需要找到一个词来概括中国人在冷战后认识和思考美国问题的最基本和最普遍的特征,那么"疑虑"可能是最恰如其分的.不论是从思考的起点,思考的心理状态,还是目前思考所处的状态等哪一方面看,都是如此.     

The effects of the United States granting MFN status to Vietnam

Conclusions In this paper, the direct impacts on Vietnam’s trading opportunities of the U.S. granting MFN treatment were first estimated by building up from the resulting level of tariffs applied to individual traded goods. Then, the economic impacts on Vietnam were inferred, using simulations with the Global Trade Analysis model. The results revealed that the increased market access to the United States brings significant welfare gains to Vietnam. The direct terms of trade improvement resulting from increased market access accounts for 60 percent of the total gain, with the remaining 40 percent derived from second-best induced gains in efficiency. Exports to the United States more than doubled, from $338 million to $768 million.¹³ The estimated increase in exports of clothing is especially significant, with these exports increasing almost fifteenfold, while exports of agricultural commodities decreased slightly. Total welfare as measured by Equivalent Variation increased by $ 118 million or 0.9 percent increase in real expenditure per capita. By granting MFN status to Vietnam, the United States also gains from improved resource allocation, although some of the gains are offset by deterioration in its terms of trade. The gains for the United States were estimated to be around $56 million per year.     

Migration of professional manpower to the United States

The results of an investigation of the immigration of professionals to the United States are presented. The data concern a sample of professionals from 17 developing and developed countries who were immigrants in 1969. Both direct and indirect immigration are considered, and special attention is paid to the constraints on professional immigration and the adjustment of status imposed by immigration policies. The results suggest that the relative wage rate is more strongly related to the brain drain than is relative income and that more restrictive policies concerning labor certification would probably prove effective in reducing the student brain drain in the short term.     

Unit Labour Costs, International Competitiveness, and Exports: The Case of Senegal

Despite some favourable conditions and a number of policy reforms,Senegal's participation in the global economy remains tenuous.This paper uses a Ricardian framework to study Senegal's internationalcompetitiveness in manufacturing. Wages, productivity and unitlabour costs in Senegal are compared to those of other developingcountries. Senegal's labour productivity has grown much moreslowly than in successful emerging economies. The 1994 devaluationof the CFA franc has dramatically improved Senegal's internationalcompetitiveness but further improvements in competitivenessdepend on productivity growth given the constraint of the fixedexchange rate. We find a significant effect of relative unitlabour costs on exports, particularly of manufactured goods.Sustained export-led growth, however, requires additional structuralreforms.     

The Rocky Road to Implementation of Basel II in the United States

This paper contends that the problems US officials have encountered in their efforts to implement Basel II reflect inherent weaknesses in the structure of the approach. It begins with a brief overview of the original Basel Accord on Capital Adequacy (Basel I) and a summary of the Basel II approach, with emphasis on the Pillar I weights for credit risk. Next an analysis of the Fed’s bifurcated approach to implementation of Basel II is followed by an examination of three unanticipated obstacles: (1) perceived competitive inequities within the USA; (2) the surprisingly lower and variable capital charges revealed in the fourth quantitative impact study; and (3) the request by four leading banks for permission to implement the simpler, Standardized Approach rather than the Advanced Internal Ratings Approach (A-IRB). These reflect the erosion of several crucial predeal understandings as described by Kane (J Financ Serv Res 32(1):39–53, 2007a). The paper concludes with a consideration of whether it may have been possible to achieve equivalent improvements in risk management with lower compliance costs and less uncertainty about the impact on financial stability.

美国棕色地带成因初探

棕色地带概念（即因现实的或潜在的环境污染而被废弃的工商业设施）在美国形成并发展到极致。美国城市发展和复兴中政府的中心任务是棕色地带再开发。本文主要对美国棕色地带形成的原因进行了探讨。工业化的衰退给城市留下了“棕色地带”遗产；郊区蔓延发展和土地使用决策尤其是分区制促使棕色地带由中心城市向老郊区蔓延；种族歧视和经济歧视使棕色地带纵深发展。而随着全球化的发展，棕色地带从发达国家扩展到发展中国家，成为全球的现象。     

The Volume and Price of Indonesian Exports, 1823 To 1940: The Long-Term Trend and its Measurement 1

This article is concerned with indices of export volume and prices in Indonesia from 1823 to 1940. It discusses the sources from which the quantitative information on exports is derived. Previous indices are shown and their shortcomings are considered. Next, Laspeyres quantity indices and Paasche unit value and price indices for agricultural and total exports are presented. These indices are based on fixed weights for eight sub-periods. The paper also discusses the features and shortcomings of the more sophisticated Divisia index, and concludes with some remarks on the long-term trend of exports from Indonesia.