Modeling undecided voters to forecast elections: From bandwagon behavior and the spiral of silence perspective

Forecasting election results has been a highly attractive activity among political and social scientists. Different forecasting methods have been proposed, but those based on public opinion polls are the most common. However, there are challenges to using opinion polls, especially because they neglect undecided voters. Due to the significant number of undecided participants and their impact on voting outcomes, we analyze the potential behavior of undecided voters by considering opinion polls and sentiment based on voter expectation from the perspective of the bandwagon effect and the spiral of silence. We establish a hierarchical Bayesian forecasting model to predict voting results, and apply it to the 2016 United States presidential election and the 2016 Brexit referendum. The results of our model suggest that voting outcomes are more predictable when fully utilizing the impact of undecided voters. The results indicate that integrating aggregated polls into the hierarchical Bayesian framework is a strong predictor for forecasting outcomes, and they provide evidence for the influence of sentiment based on voter expectation in forecasting election results.     

Correcting for survey effects in pre‐election polls

Pre‐election polls can suffer from survey effects, causing biases in forecasted election outcomes. We advocate a simple methodology to estimate the magnitude of survey effects, by collecting data both before and after the election. This method is illustrated by means of a field study with data concerning the 2009 European Parliament elections in the Netherlands. Our study provides empirical evidence of significant positive survey effects with respect to voter participation, especially for individuals with low intention to vote. For our data, the overall survey effect on party shares is small. This effect can be more substantial, for example, if political orientation and voting intention are correlated in the sample.     

Choosing union representation: the role of attitudes and emotions

In the United States, most unions are recognised by a majority vote of employees through union representation elections administered by the government. Most empirical studies of individual voting behaviour during union representation elections use a rational choice model. Recently, however, some have posited that voting is often influenced by emotions. We evaluate competing hypotheses about the determinants of union voting behaviour by using data collected from a 2010 representation election at Delta Air Lines, a US‐based company. In addition to the older rational choice framework, multiple regression results provide support for an emotional choice model. Positive feelings toward the employer are statistically significantly related to voting ‘no’ in a representation election, while positive feelings toward the union are related to a ‘yes’ vote. Effect sizes for the emotion variables were generally larger than those for the rational choice variables, suggesting that emotions may play a key role in representation election outcomes.     

PAC Congressional Election Campaign Contributions and Other Political or Economic Influences on the Voter Participation Rate

A bstract .   This study empirically investigates the potential impact of political action committee (PAC) election campaign contributions and other factors on the aggregate voter participation rate in the United States. For the study period 1960–1998, the aggregate voter participation rate appears to have been positively and significantly affected by the opportunity to vote in presidential elections and by the Vietnam War, as well as by "excessive" inflation and slow real GDP growth. The latter two findings of this study appear to be unique to this literature. In addition, the Watergate scandal and increased public dissatisfaction with government appear to have significantly discouraged voter participation. Finally, there appears to be strong evidence that PAC congressional election campaign contributions may have also acted to reduce the voter participation rate over the study period, a finding that also is unique to this study.     

MAJORITY RULE AND ELECTION MODELS

Abstract. This paper surveys the theoretical work that has been done on majority rule and economic models of elections. Section I provides an overview of the topic. Section 2 reviews the most important results that have been obtained about majority rule as an abstract collective choice rule. Section 3 identifies some alternative inferences that can be made from those results. Section 4 covers some models that include additional features that are present in political institutions where majority rule is used. Section 5 concentrates on some alternative election models and equilibrium concepts. Section 6 focuses on election models with abstentions and/or candidate uncertainty about voter behaviour. Section 7 compares and contrasts models where candidates are certain about what the voters'choices will be (contingent upon about the choices made by the candidates) and models where they are uncertain about those choices. Section 8 closes the survey by identifying some emerging areas of research.     

A methodology for testing a new spatial model of elections

The purpose of this paper is to offer a methodology for testing a new spatial theory of elections. Specifically, it is shown that the new spatial model of elections developed by Enelow and Hinich (1984a) is statistically equivalent to assuming that a classical factor structure underlies the data that voters provide concerning the issue positions of themselves and the candidates. A factor analysis of the sample correlation matrix of candidate variables averaged over voters and issues provides consistent estimates of the candidate locations in the space of predictive dimensions postulated by Enelow and Hinich, and the facor scores assigned to the voters can be used to project the voters onto the same predictive space with the candidates. This new scaling method is used to locate the positions of voters and candidates in the underlying predictive space of the 1980 Presidential election. Internal checks confirm the empirical adequacy of the candidate locations, and probit analysis is used as an external check on the empirical adequacy of the voter locations. For the pre-election data, no loss of accuracy in predicting voter choice was found in moving from the issue data to the estimated factor locations of voters and candidates. For the post-election data, a modest drop in accuracy was discovered. Overall, the empirical adequacy of factor analysis was confirmed as a methodology for testing the new Enelow-Hinich spatial model of elections.     

Diffusion and spatial equilibrium of a social norm: voting participation in the United States, 1920–2008

Social conformity can spread social norms and behaviors through a society. This research examines such a process geographically and over time for voting, which is strongly influenced by the norm that citizens should vote. A mathematical model for the spread of voting participation under the influence of social conformity is developed based on the diffusion equation, and predictions are tested with spatial analysis of state-level voter turnout in American presidential elections from 1920 to 2008. Results show that voter turnout has converged to a stable equilibrium in its geographical distribution across the states—but it is an equilibrium that results in persistent differences at the state level. Results are compared to individual-level and agent-based models. The model may be applied to other types of social diffusion that depend on specific geographical location.     

Does Direct Democracy Increase Voter Turnout? Evidence from the 2004 General Election

Abstract . This empirical study seeks to broaden the interpretation of the “rational voter model” so as to include the potential effects of “direct democracy” on the voter participation rate. Direct democracy is assumed to take two forms: initiatives and popular referenda. This study tests the hypothesis that direct democracy may not on balance significantly affect voter turnout because, although it may elevate the expected gross benefits of voting by “empowering voters,” the transactions/information costs correlative with direct democracy raise the costs of voting. Using cross‐section analysis for the 50 states for the 2004 general election, this study finds that the existence of initiatives and/or referenda does not significantly influence voter turnout.     

Forecasting election results by studying brand importance in online news

This study uses the semantic brand score, a novel measure of brand importance in big textual data, to forecast elections based on online news. About 35,000 online news articles were transformed into networks of co-occurring words and analyzed by combining methods and tools from social network analysis and text mining. Forecasts made for four voting events in Italy provided consistent results across different voting systems: a general election, a referendum, and a municipal election in two rounds. This work contributes to the research on electoral forecasting by focusing on predictions based on online big data; it offers new perspectives regarding the textual analysis of online news through a methodology which is relatively fast and easy to apply. This study also suggests the existence of a link between the brand importance of political candidates and parties and electoral results.     

The choice of tax base by local authorities: voter preferences, special interest groups, and tax base diversification

We analyze local jurisdictions’ behaviors when selecting the type of tax levied in support of local services. Our analysis focuses on taxes that must be approved by voters. Taxes differ in their incidence; thus, even when proposed revenue amounts are held constant, voting patterns and the aggregate level of voter support differ among potential revenue sources. We use a general model of political cost minimization to derive three hypotheses about local tax authorities’ behaviors. Using Ohio school district data, we find that the expected probability of passage is a highly important determinant of tax choice. Further, there is evidence that special interest groups wield influence greater than their direct impact on voting behavior, and evidence that tax authorities attempt to diversify their tax structure.     

Playing the synthesizer with Canadian data: Adding polls to a structural forecasting model

Election forecasting has become a fixture of election campaigns in a number of democracies. Structural modeling, the major approach to forecasting election results, relies on ‘fundamental’ economic and political variables to predict the incumbent’s vote share usually a few months in advance. Some political scientists contend that adding vote intention polls to these models—i.e., synthesizing ‘fundamental’ variables and polling information—can lead to important accuracy gains. In this paper, we look at the efficiency of different model specifications in predicting the Canadian federal elections from 1953 to 2015. We find that vote intention polls only allow modest accuracy gains late in the campaign. With this backdrop in mind, we then use different model specifications to make ex ante forecasts of the 2019 federal election. Our findings have a number of important implications for the forecasting discipline in Canada as they address the benefits of combining polls and ‘fundamental’ variables to predict election results; the efficiency of varying lag structures; and the issue of translating votes into seats.     

Assessing Contestability of Electoral Outcomes

This article applies Saaris geometric methodology to assess how muchdifference the choice of a particular positional voting procedure makeson the election outcomes. The British 2001 parliamentary elections are usedas an illustration of the methodology. The election results as well as MORIinterview data are used to make inferences regarding the possibility ofthe Borda effect. Saaris geometricrepresentation technique is resorted to in describing all possiblepositional voting outcomes in single-member constituencies where threecandidates are competing. Finally, two basic winning criteria are discussed.     

Election forecasting: Too far out?

We consider two criteria for evaluating election forecasts: accuracy (precision) and lead (distance from the event), specifically the trade-off between the two in poll-based forecasts. We evaluate how much “lead” still allows prediction of the election outcome. How much further back can we go, supposing we tolerate a little more error? Our analysis offers estimates of the “optimal” lead time for election forecasts, based on a dataset of over 26,000 vote intention polls from 338 elections in 44 countries between 1942 and 2014. We find that optimization of a forecast is possible, and typically occurs two to three months before the election, but can be influenced by the arrangement of political institutions. To demonstrate how our optimization guidelines perform in practice, we consider recent elections in the UK, the US, and France.     

Beyond the ecological fallacy

The analysis of long-term social and political developments in Western countries is often difficult because of a lack of sufficient survey data. Almost always official election and census statistics are available over long periods, yet the use of these data for individual-level inferences runs the risk of the ‘ecological fallacy’. In this paper we propose a method to go beyond the fallacy, the Duncan-Davis technique for area-classified data. The method is discussed and used to assess the amount of religious voting among Dutch Catholics in the 1971 general election. While the technique is only moderately helpful in this case, it is expected to be far more useful for the analysis of older elections.     

Endogenous party structure

This paper proposes a model of two-party representative democracy on a single-dimensional political space, in which voters choose their parties in order to influence the parties’ choices of representative. After two candidates are selected as the median of each party’s support group, Nature determines the candidates’ relative likability (valence). Based on the candidates’ political positions and relative likability, voters vote for the preferable candidate without being tied to their party’s choice. We show that (1) there exists a nontrivial equilibrium under natural conditions, and (2) the equilibrium party border and the ex ante probabilities of the two-party candidates winning are sensitive to the distribution of voters. In particular, we show that if a party has a more concentrated subgroup, then the party tends to alienate its centrally located voters, and the party’s probability of winning the final election is reduced. Even if voter distribution is symmetric, an extremist party (from either side) can emerge as voters become more politically divided.     

Modern American Populism: Analyzing the Economics Behind the “Silent Majority,” the Tea Party,and Trumpism

Modern American populism (MAP) was born out of the political upheaval of the civil rights movement of the 1960s. The article examines the causes of populism. Economic anxiety is found to be the main cause, but there is also evidence supporting an alternative theory that racial resentment is an important driving force behind populism. The article analyzes the role of populism in the 1972 election of Richard Nixon, the Tea Party election of 2010, and the 2016 election of Donald Trump using data provided by the American National Election Studies (ANES). There is ample qualitative evidence that economic anxiety caused the populist voting patterns that elected Nixon, Tea Party candidates, and Trump. Statistical data supported the same conclusion in the 2010 and 2016 elections, but the 1972 data were inconclusive. The data show that both economic anxiety and racial resentment played a role in the 2010 and 2016 elections, but the findings suggest that economic anxiety is the underlying factor that generates both racial resentment and support for populism.     

Privacy concerns,internal political efficacy,intrusiveness, and voter resistance to the acceptance of political mobile marketing campaigns

Political parties increasingly rely on information systems‐based approaches to present their messages, engender voter participation, and solicit voter support. Although research is being conducted on how mobile devices, mobile Internet, and social media are used to galvanize voters' participation in the political process, there is an observable dearth of research on how the use of these approaches by politicians might be resisted by voters. This study examines the antecedents of voter resistance to political mobile marketing campaigns with a conceptual model, and it employs reactance and internal political efficacy theories. Data for the empirical testing of the conceptual model were obtained through a survey of 971 South African voters. The findings of the study suggest that the proposed model provides a reasonable explanation of voter resistance to political mobile marketing campaigns and identifies privacy concerns, intrusiveness, and internal political efficacy as salient factors underlying voter resistance to political mobile marketing. The findings further suggest that internal political efficacy significantly moderates and reinforces the positive impact of privacy concerns on resistance. These findings provide important guidelines for reducing voters' resistance to political mobile marketing campaigns. They also provide a point of departure for future research into this relatively unexplored but potentially fertile domain.     

Party loyalty as habit formation

In most democracies, at least two out of any three individuals vote for the same party in sequential elections. This paper presents a model in which vote‐persistence is partly due to the dependence of the utility on the previous voting decision. This dependence is termed ‘habit formation’. The model and its implications are supported by individual‐level panel data on the presidential elections in the USA in 1972 and 1976. For example, it is found that the voting probability is a function of the lagged choice variable, even when the endogeneity of the lagged variable is accounted for, and that the tendency to vote for different parties in sequential elections decreased with the age of the voter. Furthermore, using structural estimation the effect of habit is estimated, while allowing unobserved differences among respondents. The structural habit parameter implies that the effect of previous votes on the current decision is quite strong. The habit model fits the data better than the traditional ‘party identification’ model. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the performance of voting systems in spatial voting simulations

We study the performance of voting systems in terms of minimizing the overall social disutility of making a collective choice in an univariate voting space with ideological voting and perfect information. In order to obtain a distribution of the performance indicator for each of the 12 systems chosen for this study—Baldwin’s Method, Black’s Method, The Borda Count, Bucklin’s Grand Junction System, Coombs’ Method, Dodgson’s System, Instant Run-Off Voting, Plurality, Simpson’s MinMax, Tideman’s Ranked Pairs, Schulze’s Beatpath Method, and Two-Round Majority—we simulate elections using an Agent-Based Computational approach under several different distributions for voters and candidates positioning, with up to 15 available candidates. At each iteration, voters generate complete and strict ordinal utility functions over the set of available candidates, based on which each voting system computes a winner. We define the performance of a system in terms of its capability of choosing among the available candidates the one that minimizes aggregate voter disutility. As expected, the results show an overall dominance of Condorcet completion methods over the traditional and more widely used voting systems, regardless of the distributions of voter and candidate positions.