我国的外贸战略与工业化路径

发展中国家贸易战略选择的决定性因素取决于本国工业化的初始条件和发展路径。我国工业化发展阶段的并存性与交错性决定了我国外贸战略的综合性质。我国外贸战略的综合性表现在:一是出口导向与进口替代在产业间的并存; 二是出口导向与进口替代在地区间的并存。我国的开放型贸易战略比较接近于世界银行所称的一般外向性贸易战略,其政策特征是贸易的逐步自由化和人民币汇率的实际贬值。在我国的总体贸易政策中,出口导向还是占据着主导的地位,当前最紧迫的是要实现外贸增长方式的转变。     

开放条件下对我国外贸与工业化关系的理论分析及实证检验

对外贸易与工业化之间的关系不仅表现在二者以推进经济发展为共同目标,而且在内外经济循环中能够彼此互补、相互促进.本文运用系统论的思想,从对外贸易与工业化关系的理论分析入手,阐明了二者之间的互动机制,认为依据具体的现实状况,实施合适的贸易-工业化战略必将更好地实现经济发展的战略目标;并在此基础上实证检验了我国对外贸易与工业化的关系,显示我国贸易-工业化战略有着较好的执行效果,同时发现产业结构的变动对外贸的影响显著,由此指示产业结构的调整是工业化与外贸良性互动的重要战略取向.     

浅析我国对外贸易发展战略调整

改革开放33年来,我国的对外贸易发展战略历经调整,从进口替代、贸易保护主义盛行到如今的进出口平衡发展战略。贸易战略选择正确与否,其能否顺应国家的经济客观环境,是对一国能否从对外贸易中获益以及获益大小产生影响的关键因素。2001年我国加入WTO,参与全球贸易,多年来我国一直致力于由“贸易大国”转向“贸易强国”,我国的贸易发展战略应当如何调整,成为我国急需讨论的问题之一。     

我国贸易发展战略文献综述

对外贸易对于发展中国家的产业发展和经济发展具有重大影响，因而如何根据客观条件选择正确的贸易战略就成为促进对外贸易的关键。由于国内外学者对贸易战略分析的角度不同，强调的重点不同，对贸易战略的认识也就自然不同。有鉴于此，笔者试图通过对国内外有关贸易战略的文献和主要观点进行归纳和整理，以期更好地研究这个问题，对在实践层面上制定我国贸易战略有所帮助。     

我国贸易发展战略选择初探

制定科学的贸易战略是我国从贸易大国走向贸易强国的必要步骤.本文从贸易战略有关理论出发,分析了贸易战略选择的原则和影响因素,并结合国情提出选择贸易战略的建议.     

美国“再工业化”政策对中美贸易影响的实证分析

奥巴马政府为应对美国“次贷危机”以及国际金融危机,提出美国“再工业化”战略,重点是发展实体经济.特朗普上台后实施“企业回迁”战略,以恢复美国制造业而促进经济增长和增加就业.美国“再工业化”政策的实施会对中关贸易产生重要影响.首先对美国“再工业化”政策进行指数化,然后建立回归模型分析美国“再工业化”政策对中美贸易影响.结论为美国“再工业化”政策在短期内阻碍中美贸易的影响不显著,但长期会阻碍中关贸易的健康发展.     

二战后美欧对日贸易战略差异及原因

二战后,日本选择“贸易立国”的经济发展战略,出口不断增长,但国内市场的开放进程却相当缓慢,这引起了美国和欧盟的强烈不满.因此,美国和欧盟长期对日贸易战略重点就是如何促使日本更快、更深层次地开放国内市场.但是,由于种种原因,尽管美欧对日贸易战略的出发点相同,却选择了不同的战略.     

国际经济贸易与我国对外贸易战略选择

发展国际经济贸易是我国改革开放战略实施之后的必然选择,这也是打开国门,以开发的姿态加入世界经济竞争的重要渠道之一。然而,我国发展国际经济贸易不能无计划的发展,而应当是选择一个符合我国国情的对外贸易战略。笔者在分析我国实践,借鉴他人研究理论后有针对性的提出了我国在发展国际经济贸易时应当选择的对外贸易战略,以期通过本文的分析促进我国国际经济贸易的长远发展。     

服务贸易战略转变与发展对策——2006年中国国际贸易学会学术年会理论综述(三)

本次年会还就服务贸易的战略转变与选择、服务业的国际竞争力、服务业发展与国际直接投资、服务贸易范围与文化产业发展及加快提高航天商业发射服务业竞争力等问题进行了研讨. 一、服务贸易的战略转变与选择 兰州商学院雷长兴同志在<中国服务贸易的战略转变与战略选择分析>一文中提出,加快发展服务贸易是未来一个时期我国对外贸易发展的主要战略任务,我们应积极调整服务贸易的发展思路,实现服务贸易发展的三大战略转变:第一,将人力资源优势转变为服务贸易优势;第二,将对外政府援助行为转变为对外服务贸易行为;第三,将对外交流活动转变为对外服务贸易活动.我国服务贸易战略转变与选择的途径是:第一,积极利用国际资源发展服务贸易;第二,将信息技术服务贸易作为发展现代服务贸易的战略重点;第三,将海洋运输服务作为传统服务贸易领域优先发展:第四,积极拓展对外医疗卫生服务贸易;第五,将高等教育作为服务贸易发展的新领域;第六,将体育文化贸易作为服务贸易发展的重要战略领域.     

我国出口导向贸易战略的形成和得失

贸易战略的种类屈数可指,但现实中适宜的外贸战略的选择却显得非常困难.作为整体经济发展战略的一个组成部分,外贸战略必须有助于而不是相悖于整体经济发展战略目标的实现.本文总结了建国以来我国外贸战略的形演变过程,并详细分析了现阶段我国出口导向贸易战略的经验得失.     

Export oriented industrialization strategies

Disappointment about the results of import substituting industrialization strategies as well as the spectacular performance of a few newly industrialised countries have led many developing countries to switch in the 1970s to export oriented industrialization. This analysis cautions against any misplaced euphoria with regard to this strategy in a neo-mercantilistic and hegemonic world.     

Sweetening the Transition in EU Sugar Preferences: The Case of Fiji

The European Union grants preferential market access for sugar to a group of African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries. Sugar exported under these quotas receives between two and three times the world price. These trade preferences are intended as a form of aid, but they tend to stifle productivity growth in the recipient countries. The European Union could better assist ACP countries by providing direct development assistance in place of sugar subsidies, for example by investing the aid transfers into infrastructure or other essential public services. This paper tests this proposition for the case of Fiji using a computable general‐equilibrium model. It is found that significant gains in economic performance can be achieved by employing such alternative strategies for aid. These gains are particularly strong over the medium to long term when the aid funds are diverted to infrastructure development. However, there are issues of equity to consider since, in the case of Fiji, the rural poor would be the losers if trade preferences were to be removed. Moreover, the degree of benefit in alternative strategies such as infrastructure development will be contingent on the economy's flexibility, which in turn depends upon the country's regulatory regime and education performance.     

Productivity and externalities: models of export-led growth

In developing countries, successful export-led growth (ELG) industrialization has been associated with rapid structural change and productivity growth. There are major difficulties in explaining this performance using a standard neoclassical growth model. To develop a more satisfactory framework, we start from empirical and theoretical work with models incorporating externalities. We develop a simple analytical model with an export externality that captures the large increase in both total factor productivity and trade share associated with ELG. A second model is developed to decompose growth into various components: (i) factor accumulation, (ii) a factor reallocation effect from moving factors from low to high productivity sectors, (iii) an export externality effect arising from exporting light and heavy manufactures and (iv) an import externality effect arising from importing capital goods (heavy manufactures). The second model is implemented with data for an archetype semi-industrial country. In addition to accounting for the higher total factor productivity growth observed in countries pursuing ELG strategies, the model captures the patterns of structural change experienced by such countries better than simpler neoclassical models without disequilibrium features or externalities.     

Introduction: the icarus paradox in Korean business and management

Some writers argue that modern history reveals that countries pass through ‘cycles’ in economic leadership. The ‘forerunners’ of industrialization used inventions and innovations as the major sources of their growth. On the other hand, newly industrializing countries, labelled ‘latecomers’ vis-à-vis the first groups, relied more on imitating, borrowing, or learning advanced technological and organizational capabilities to achieve national industrialization and eventually to gain national competitiveness. For some time, many have viewed such economies, especially the ‘Asian Tigers’, as a major force that will lead future world economic growth. However, such expectations have diminished with the recent financial crisis and contagion in Asia. The subject matter covered here includes the sources of economic growth and industrialization, the ‘catch-up’ strategies of firms, and foreign investment. The causes of the recent financial crisis, and future possibilities for the Korean model of business and management, are also analysed.     

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND NATURAL RESOURCE BOOMS: A STRUCTURALIST PERSPECTIVE

In this paper we present a structuralist two‐sector model on economic development, structural change and natural resource booms. We describe a multiple equilibria scenario, in which manufacturing development is the main source of economic progress. Natural resource booms, by modifying the productive structure of the economy, may set destabilizing forces. De‐industrialization processes may take place, confining developing countries in poverty traps. Public intervention in the economic sphere, both through short‐run macro policies and through long‐run development strategies, may help to free the economy from poverty traps and to foster the development process.     

Industrial development and international cooperation

A long road to substantive levels of industrialization still lies ahead of most developing countries. The challenges facing policy-makers and industrialists in these countries are enormous. What role should the international community play in the second half of the '90s to support these countries' economic development endeavours?     

International retailer performance: Disentangling the interplay between rule of law and culture

Understanding the complexity of institutional factors in host countries and adapting strategies accordingly is crucial for international retailers, given the high failure rate of global operations. This paper investigates the impact of formal institutions (i.e., legal environments) and informal institutions (i.e., cultural values) on the performance of international retailers. We analyzed the data on 144 international retailers and 565 subsidiaries owned by these retailers, using three measures of retailer performance: sales per square meter, return on equity, and Tobin's Q. Our findings show that retailer performance is influenced by the interactions of the host country's rule of law and three cultural dimensions. Specifically, strong rule of law enhances the performance of international retailers in host countries, especially with high power distance or high uncertainty avoidance. In highly collectivistic countries, retailers can also build strong relationships to govern transactions. Results provide key insights that explain international retailers’ performance in different countries and deliver guidelines for retailer strategies.     

Mining, Corporate Social Responsibility and the "Community": The Case of Rio Tinto, Richards Bay Minerals and the Mbonambi

Mining companies have long had a questionable reputation for social responsibility, especially in developing countries. In recent years, mining companies operating in developing countries have come under increased pressure as opponents have placed them under greater public scrutiny. Mining companies have responded by developing global corporate social responsibility strategies as part of their larger global business strategies. In these strategies, a prominent place is given to their relationship with local communities. For business ethics, one basic issue is whether such an approach to corporate responsibility is likely to effectively address the development concerns of local communities in developing countries. This paper addresses this question by investigating how the corporate social responsibility agenda of a major minor company has been implemented by one of its subsidiaries in South Africa.     

On the Middle Income Trap,the Industrialization Process and Appropriate Industrial Policy

In the 1960s, Kaldor defined the manufacturing sector as the engine of growth, suggesting that industrialization might help accelerate growth rates in low income economies. This is still relevant in today’s world, where growth rates in countries in the middle income trap slow down, extending their time in the trap. In some of these economies, industrialization slows down while others face “premature deindustrialization.” Adding to this scenario, this paper describes, in Kaldorian fashion, the streamlined features of industrialization, technical capabilities and technical progress, which offer explanations as to why sectoral industrial policies are necessary in releasing countries from the trap. It presents a taxonomy of industrial policies and discusses how industrial policy and science, technology and innovation policies should be sequenced along the process of industrialization. Finally, the paper develops a methodology to identify the “strategic” sectors on which industrial policy could focus.     

The Asian Drivers and Africa: Learning from Case Studies

(1248) Andrea Goldstein, Nicolas Pinaud, Helmut Reisen and Dorothy McCormick When the OECD Development Centre launched research in 2005 to document the economic, political and social impacts of China’s and India’s economic growth on sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries, the arrival (or resurgence) of new important players had triggered concerns among traditional donors. Accusations ran from free riding on Western debt relief over violation of governance standards and unfair company competition to fragmentation of aid delivery. At the same time, there was a tendency to neglect the diversity of SSA in terms of resource endowments, trade links and industrial development. It was time then to promote African voices from various backgrounds to reflect Africa’s heterogeneity. The introductory section presents a summary of findings about the economic impact of the two Asian giants in SSA countries by Africa‐based economists, with three practical conclusions. First, African countries should favour strategies that minimise areas of direct competition with the Asian giants. Second, industrialisation strategies are required to exploit opportunities complementary to the Asian development path. Third, sectors of mutual interest should be identified in order to develop long‐term views on how to cooperate with China and India and these views should be mainstreamed into national development plans.