Los procesos α-estables y su relación con el exponente de autosimilitud: paridades de los tipos de cambio dólar estadounidense,dólar canadiense,euro y yen

In this research we analyze the performance of the exchange rates of USA Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Euro and Yen; we estimate the basic statistics, α-stable parameters, we performed tests of goodness fit Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling and Lilliefors; we estimate self-similarity exponents and we performed t y F tests, ruling that the series of the exchange rates are multi-fractal; we estimate confidence intervals of the exchange rates and we conclude that the estimated α-stable distributions are more efficient than the gaussian distribution to quantify market risks and the series are self-similar; by the ? index we infer the risk of events and we indicate that exchange rates are anti-persistent, have mean reversión, short-term memory, negative correlation and high risk in the short and medium term; the estimation and validation of α-stable distributions and the exponent of self-similarity are important for pricing and the creation of innovative investment instruments by financial engineering, risk management and derivatives pricing.     

完全市场中的资产定价——有限离散时间情形

研究完全市场中有限离散时间情形下的资产定价问题。首先,给出了无风险收益的概念,借助无风险收益定义了一种风险中性概率。基于这个概率,得到了资产的价格等于随机现金流与随机贴现因子乘积的期望,而且资产的价格还等于资产支付关于q的期望对无风险收益的贴现值。其次,借助无风险概率考虑了资产在多期情形下的资产定价,得出了相应的股票期权公式,尤其作为推论给出了欧式看涨期权的定价公式,并对资产价格过程的鞅性作了讨论。     

Modelling failure rates with machine-learning models: Evidence from a panel of UK firms

In this study, we investigate the ability of machine-learning techniques to predict firm failures and we compare them against alternatives. Using data on business and financial risks of UK firms over 1994–2019, we document that machine-learning models are systematically more accurate than a discrete hazard benchmark. We conclude that the random forest model outperforms other models in failure prediction. In addition, we show that the improved predictive power of the random forest model relative to its counterparts persists when we consider extreme economic events as well as firm and industry heterogeneity. Finally, we find that financial factors affect failure probabilities.     

Moments of greatness: entering the fundamental state of leadership

When we do our best work as leaders, we don't imitate others. Rather, we draw on our own values and capabilities. We enter what author Robert Quinn calls the fundamental state of leadership. This is a frame of mind we tend to adopt when facing a significant challenge: a promotion opportunity, the risk of professional failure, a serious illness, a divorce, the death of a loved one, or any other major life jolt. Crisis calls, and we rise to the occasion. But we don't need to spend time in the dark night of the soul to reach this fundamental state. We can make the shift at any time by asking ourselves-and honestly answering--four transformative questions: Am I results centered? (Am I willing to leave my comfort zone to make things happen?) Am I internally directed? (Am I behaving according to my values rather than bending to social or political pressures?) Am I other focused? (Am I putting the collective good above my own needs?) Am I externally open? (Am I receptive to outside stimuli that may signal the need for change?) When we can answer these questions in the affirmative, we're prepared to lead in the truest sense. Of course, we can't sustain the fundamental state of leadership indefinitely. Fatigue and external resistance pull us out of it. But each time we reach it, we then return to our everyday selves a bit more capable, and we usually boost the performance of the people around us. Over time, we create a high-performance culture--and that can be sustained.     

Machine learning for quantitative finance: fast derivative pricing,hedging and fitting

In this paper, we show how we can deploy machine learning techniques in the context of traditional quant problems. We illustrate that for many classical problems, we can arrive at speed-ups of several orders of magnitude by deploying machine learning techniques based on Gaussian process regression. The price we have to pay for this extra speed is some loss of accuracy. However, we show that this reduced accuracy is often well within reasonable limits and hence very acceptable from a practical point of view. The concrete examples concern fitting and estimation. In the fitting context, we fit sophisticated Greek profiles and summarize implied volatility surfaces. In the estimation context, we reduce computation times for the calculation of vanilla option values under advanced models, the pricing of American options and the pricing of exotic options under models beyond the Black–Scholes setting.     

Taking care of each other: Solid economic base for living together

This paper is intended to give an insight of the thoughts and issues which emerged in a 2-day-workshop on WFSF World Conference in Budapest, Hungary in 2005, under the title of “Taking Care of Each Other” meaning the connection between the generation of present and that of the future. Our shocking findings were the following: we now live on the cost of the future's generation; we live up their futures; we let erode the values both on personal and social level; we determine their actions; we do not give them the freedom of choice; they are forced to fulfil the obligations we impose on them. The way we came to these conclusions, and some possible “solutions” we have discussed are presented in this short summary.     

Analysis of the intraday effects of economic releases on the currency market

Using four years of second-by-second executed trade data, we study the intraday effects of a representative group of scheduled economic releases on three exchange rates: EUR/USD, JPY/USD, and GBP/USD. Using wavelets to analyze volatility behavior, we empirically show that intraday volatility clusters increase as we approach the time of the releases, and decay exponentially after the releases. Moreover, we compare our results with the results of a poll that we conducted of economists and traders. Finally, we propose a wavelet volatility estimator which is not only more efficient than a range estimator that is commonly used in empirical studies, but also captures the market dynamics as accurately as a range estimator. Our approach has practical value in high-frequency algorithmic trading, as well as electronic market making.     

股市周期的模拟预报

不同于传统股市周期理论，本使用傅里叶谱分析技术来模拟预报股市周期。在说明股市周期运行特征的辨识和季节调整的方法之后，使用四年的数据建立了股市模型。在详细介绍了傅里叶周期分析法之后，检验了其对所建模型预报结果的准确性。     

Return and volatility co-movement in commodity futures markets: the effects of liquidity risk

Commodity markets are a widely researched topic in the field of finance. In this paper, we investigate the co-movement of return and volatility measures in different commodity futures markets and how these measures are affected by liquidity risk. First, we find that commodity returns display co-movement and that liquidity risk plays a key role in shaping asset return patterns. Moreover, we show that the volatilities of commodity returns co-move, and we demonstrate the role of liquidity risk in this joint pattern. We also find that the commodity markets we investigated share a common volatility factor that determines their joint volatility co-movement. Because liquidity risk affects both commodity returns and volatility shocks, it might be interpreted as the common causal factor driving both measures simultaneously. Therefore, we affirm the view that liquidity shocks are firmly related to two residual risks originating from both market return and market volatility. Finally, we also show that liquidity spillovers can significantly drive cross-sectional correlation dynamics.     

New evidence on oil price and firm returns

In this paper, we examine the relationship between oil price and firm returns for 560 US firms listed on the NYSE. First, we find that oil price affects returns of firms differently depending on their sectoral location. Second, we find strong evidence of lagged effect of oil price on firm returns. Third, we test whether oil price affects firm returns based on different regimes and find that in five out of the 14 sectors this is indeed the case. Finally, we unravel that oil price affects firm returns differently based on firm size, implying strong evidence of size effects.     

Valuación de opciones sobre subyacentes con rendimientos α-estables

In this work, we analyze the log-stable option pricing model, we estimate the parameters of the distribution of the peso-dollar exchange depreciation rate through the methods: 1) maximum likelihood, 2) tabulated quantiles of α-stable distributions and 3) regression on the sample characteristic function; we conducted a qualitative analysis to show the quality of the distribution’s fit and through a quantitative analysis we chose the best α-parameters estimation and we compare the McCulloch (2003) log-stable option pricing model with the Black and Scholes (1973) log-normal model and a MexDer’s prices vector; finally, we show that the log-stable model has advantages over the log-normal model.     

上市公司关联方交易盈余管理与关联方利益转移关系研究

本文选取了2001—2004年147家因关联交易获得非标准审计意见的上市公司作为样本,建立模型实证上市公司关联交易盈余管理与关联方利益转移的关系。发现关联交易盈余管理的主要目的和结果是关联方从上市公司转移利益;股权集中度与关联方利益转移的关系较为复杂;资产规模越大关联方利益转移的程度越高。政策建议为:限制金字塔多层持股和交叉多重持股,而不是简单地降低股权集中度;在股权分置改革时实行国有股缩股而不是只向流通股股东送股;实行累退投票制度;对股东大会决议的最低股权数做出决定;实行控股股东的债权劣后受偿制度。     

On dividends in the phase–type dual risk model

The dual risk model assumes that the surplus of a company decreases at a constant rate over time, and grows by means of upward jumps which occur at random times with random sizes. In the present work, we study the dual risk renewal model when the waiting times are phase-type distributed. Using the roots of the fundamental and the generalized Lundberg’s equations, we get expressions for the ruin probability and the Laplace transform of the time of ruin for an arbitrary single gain distribution. Then, we address the calculation of expected discounted future dividends particularly when the individual common gains follow a phase-type distribution. We further show that the optimal dividend barrier does not depend on the initial reserve. As far as the roots of the Lundberg equations and the time of ruin are concerned, we address the existing formulae in the corresponding Sparre-Andersen insurance risk model for the first hitting time, and we generalize them to cover also the situations where we have multiple roots. We do that working a new approach and technique, approach we also use for working the dividends, unlike others, it can be also applied for every situation.     

International price and earnings momentum

In this paper, we find that price and earnings momentum are pervasive features of international equity markets even when controlling for data-snooping biases. For Europe, we show price momentum to be subsumed by earnings momentum on an aggregate level. However, this rationale can hardly be sustained on a country level. Also, the above explanation is confined to certain time periods in the USA. Since we cannot establish a decent relation between momentum and macroeconomic risks, we suspect a behavior-based explanation to be at work. In fact, we find momentum profits to be more pronounced for portfolios characterized by higher information uncertainty. Hence, the momentum anomaly may well be rationalized in a model of investors underreacting to fundamental news. Finally, we find that momentum works better when limited to stocks with high idiosyncratic risk or higher illiquidity, suggesting that limits to arbitrage deter rational investors from exploiting the anomaly.     

Bank loan recovery rates: Measuring and nonparametric density estimation

In this paper we analyse a comprehensive database of 149,378 recovery rates on Italian bank loans. We investigate a new methodology to compute the recovery percentage that we suggest to consider as a mixed random variable. To estimate the probability density function of such a mixture, we propose the mixture of beta kernels estimator and we analyse its performance by Monte Carlo simulations. The application of these proposals to the Bank of Italy’s data shows that, even if we remove the endpoints from the support of the recovery rate, the density function estimate is far from being a beta function.     

Multivariate option pricing with time varying volatility and correlations

In this paper we consider option pricing using multivariate models for asset returns. Specifically, we demonstrate the existence of an equivalent martingale measure, we characterize the risk neutral dynamics, and we provide a feasible way for pricing options in this framework. Our application confirms the importance of allowing for dynamic correlation, and it shows that accommodating correlation risk and modeling non-Gaussian features with multivariate mixtures of normals substantially changes the estimated option prices.     

江西省科技型中小企业技术创新基金现状分析：成效、问题及策略

江西省创新基金通过支持技术创新,扶持科技型中小企业迅速成长,对江西经济发展具有重大影响。基于现状及存在的问题,可以加大创新基金财政投入力度,扩大资助覆盖面;优化创新基金运作模式,变“无偿”为“有偿”;发挥创新基金的引导作用,促进多元科技融投资体系的形成;设立机会主义防范机制,提高项目验收的合格率;加强欠发达地区创新基金宣传和辅导工作,扩大社会影响力;重点支持符合环境保护、生态可持续发展的“绿色”领域。     

国有控股商业银行监督权配置问题研究

本文首先通过提出一种新的企业观,并结合对股份制商业银行企业特性的分析说明了股份制商业银行应高度重视监督权的配置,接着,对我国现有的股份制商业银行的监督权配置的现状进行了考察并对其低效配置的原因进行了分析,最后,本文提出,可通过战略投资者委派监事这一新的监事会制度来完善我国国有控股商业银行监督权的配置。     

交易者关注行为对股票价格的影响机制

本文研究了交易者的关注行为对股票价格的影响机制。通过控制了公司基本面的因素基础上,分别从最终量（股票价格）和变化量（价格差）两个角度,建立了影响模型,实证发现,无论是最终量还是变化量,当期的关注度产生的正向响应都是强于滞后一期产生的反向影响;进一步用格兰杰因果分析了两者的关系,发现互为双向格兰杰原因;通过脉冲响应了解相互之间作用的模式,发现关注度对价格短期内是反向波动的影响,长期会有正向的响应。