基于Web地理图片的中国入境游客POI空间格局

通过社交图片网站(Flickr)的数据开放接口,借助计算机程序采集、整理了2008—2013年境外旅游者上传的中国入境游相关照片数据,利用这些照片中的地理位置坐标信息,采用DBScan聚类分析方法,计算中国入境游客地理兴趣点(POI),并结合运用数理统计和GIS空间分析方法分析其空间分布特征。结果表明:1我国入境游客POI分布具有显著的空间分异特征,其分布密度呈现由东向西逐渐递减的态势,并已形成"一级中心集聚带、二级中心集聚区、三级点状飞地"的空间格局;2在一级中心集聚带中所包含的三大核心区内部,其入境游客POI分布同样具有空间的异质性和不均衡性;3在入境游POI分布具有高度空间集聚性的同时,在时间序列上的集聚性具有逐步均衡性发展的趋势;4细分客源市场的POI选择不仅具有高集聚性,同时由于选择偏好的差异从而在空间上的集聚差异显著。     

Delivering endogenous inertia in prices and output

This paper presents a DGE model in which aggregate price level inertia is generated endogenously by the optimizing behavior of price-setting firms. All the usual sources of inertia are absent here i.e., all firms are simultaneously free to change their price once every period and face no adjustment costs in doing so. Despite this, the model generates persistent movements in aggregate output and inflation in response to a nominal shock. Two modifications of a standard one-quarter pre-set pricing model deliver these results: learning-by-doing and habit formation in leisure. While the model delivers persistence, simulations based on estimated shocks to tfp and money growth suggest both output and inflation are too volatile relative to the data and fail to closely follow the historical time series.     

Delivering health care benefits: staying focused on real solutions

All signs point to an explosion of new approaches to financing, delivering, managing and purchasing health care. However, before employers abandon the current model, they need to verify that the alternatives will be truly advantageous and that new approaches will not place employees at greater risk than they are today. A through assessment of the advantages and risks of various approaches will equip employers to make the best business decisions and to be articulate participants in the coming debate.     

The Spanish automotive industry: scale economies and input relationships

This paper investigates the existence of economies of scale in the Spanish automobile industry as well as the substitution possibilities between input pairs and the direct and cross price elasticities of demand for the various inputs by estimating a translog cost function for both a three input model involving capital, labour, and intermediate goods as well as a four input model where energy is separated from other intermediate goods. The results of this study are consistent with the hypothesis of economies of scale in the Spanish automobile industry, particularly at the low and mean levels of output. These results also are consistent with the hypothesis that capital is a substitute for the other inputs, but that labour and intermediate goods are complements. Labour and energy also appear to have a complementary relationship over most of the data points in this study. The significance of a complementary relationship between labour and intermediate goods is that any attempt by the Spanish government to restrict imports of these inputs, resulting in higher domestic prices for them, may aggravate an already serious domestic unemployment problem.     

Simultaneous Estimation of Legal and Illegal Supply and Demand: The Case of Motion Pictures

Prior research into illegal goods has typically looked at one-way effects, such as illegal demand on legal demand. This research investigates a previously unexamined component of the market, illegal supply. The authors examine the supply and demand of legal goods and their illegal counterparts as a market system of four interdependent components. This research makes theoretical and empirical contributions by evaluating illegal supply in this system. Simultaneous equations estimate each market component on the others using data from the motion picture industry. The results find illegal supply has no effect on legal supply (movie screens), positive effects on illegal demand (piracy downloads), and some effect on legal demand (box office revenues). Timing effects highlight this: illegal supply has a positive effect on legal demand during a film’s opening week, but no effect post-launch. The other market components have positive effects on illegal supply (except legal supply, which is negative in the opening week). Additionally, illegal demand has a negative effect on legal demand during the opening week of release, but not in the subsequent weeks. This finding alleviates prior research tension as to whether piracy helps or hurts legal sales, as omitting illegal supply could result in biased estimates.     

Internationalization and industrial districts: evidence from the Italian automotive supply chain

In this paper we focus on the determinants of internationalization and, in particular, on the specific role played by the agglomeration of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) through their proximity to a large firm. We study the characteristics of the internationalization process in a representative sample of 786 firms in the Italian automotive supply chain. After building an Internationalization Strategy Index (ISI), we perform a multinomial logit econometric analysis. The main findings of the empirical analysis are: (a) Italian automotive supplier firms mainly go in the foreign markets through export, i.e. the simplest internationalization mode; (b) as predicted in the literature, individual firm characteristics play a significant role in the probability of internationalization; (c) firms located in the province of Turin, where the dominant car assembler (Fiat) in Italy has its headquarters, or more generally, in large automotive industry districts, enjoy a clear localization advantage; (d) interestingly, we also find that internationalization is negatively correlated with the share of Fiat in suppliers’ sales, and that suppliers located in a district and less dependent on Fiat are also those adopting the most advanced internationalization strategies.     

Entrepreneurship and bureaucratic control: the case of the Chinese automotive industry

Whether and how will the state treat different kinds of enterprises, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-SOEs, in the related industry differently? Does this concern give its industrial policy any special Chinese characteristics? This article looks at a particular aspect of the Chinese automotive industry policy, that is, regulating entries, which poses special problems for the government. It explores why the government still retains this method of control even after it has been shown to be ineffective, and how the government tries to reconcile it with the aim of promoting entrepreneurship. The government finds that it cannot do away with entrepreneurship brought by the unplanned entrants (SOEs or not) to keep the industry competitive. Moreover, with SOEs accounting for the major part of the auto industry, the government has to protect the SOEs and propel them to upgrade at the same time. The government is thus likely to continue regulating entries, while trying to find a balance between the needs of keeping entrepreneurship and managing SOEs.     

Delivering Public Health Care Services: Substitutes,Complements, or Both?

In this article we investigate how the availability of public health care providers increases (complement) or decreases (substitute) the likelihood of having public or private health insurance. The probability of each of three insurance alternatives (uninsured, Medicaid, private insurance) is modeled as a function of the availability of public programs in the respondents'community along with individual characteristics including family income, health status, and family structure. Using population-based estimates, public hospitals are associated with a crowd-out rate of 3.5 percent to 8.6 percent. Federally qualified health centers were associated with a net complementary effect (additional public insurance take-up) of 7.1 percent. (JEL I11 , I18 , I38 )     

电子商务时代的物流配送思考

本文分析了电子商务在实践中解决物流配送的三种方式和电子商务时代物流配送应具有的五个物征，提出物流配送业应适应电子商务时代的需要，采用物流信息收集的数据库化和代码化、物流信息处理的电子化和计算机等现代信息管理手段，积极向第三方物流和供应链管理物流的方向发展等思考意见。     

Use of mathematical models in automotive transportation policy analysis: A case study

Mathematical models are used widely in automotive transportation policy analysis. The limitations, benefits, and uses of a case-study model, the Sweeney Passenger Car Gasoline Demand Model, were examined. It was found that because of users' lack of awareness of the model's characteristics, the model has sometimes been misused, although the misuse appears to have had no major negative policy impact. However, the model use has had some impact on major automotive/energy policy decisions of the 1970s. Involvement by the model author in applications of the model contributed to effective use of the model in the policy process.     

Sectoral systems of environmental innovation: An application to the French automotive industry

This article seeks to show how a sectoral system approach may contribute to the analysis of the determinants of environmental innovations. By using Malerba's [F. Malerba: Sectoral systems of innovation and production, Res. Policy Vol. 102, 845-859, (2002)] concept of sectoral system of innovation and production, we develop a sectoral framework based on three building blocks: technological regimes, demand conditions and environmental and innovation policy. Within this framework, the sectoral patterns of environmental innovation result from the interplay between these three blocks. The conceptual framework is applied to the case of the French automotive industry, with a specific focus on the development of low emission vehicles. The analysis shows how technological regime and demand conditions lead to technological inertia, and so to a strong persistence of the dominant design. Finally, environmental and innovative policy are considered in an integrated way, so that we can study how they influence technological regime and demand conditions, and in the meantime how they are conditioned by these two blocks.     

Free automotive unions,industrial work and precariousness in provincial Russia

This article draws on ethnographic work carried out since 2009 on workers and automotive unions in Kaluga, Russia. The contrast between secure and temporary contract workers in foreign-owned car plants is a focus of activism among emerging alternative trade unions in Kaluga. Workers in both the ‘new’ production-scape of high-tech foreign-owned automotive assembly, and the ‘old’ low-tech Soviet production contexts articulate similar interpretive understandings of what constitutes ‘precarious’ work: lack of autonomy and the lack of a ‘social wage’ generally in labour. We interrogate this through in-depth interviews with unionised and non-unionised workers in the auto sector and other industries locally. A divide emerges between workers who go to work for the car plants, and those who remain in Soviet-types firms and who reject the labour relations model that it offers and which they understand to contrast with a traditional ‘paternalistic’ Russian model.     

R&D portfolios in environmentally friendly automotive propulsion: Variety, competition and policy implications

In this article, we analyze R&D portfolios in environmentally friendly automotive propulsion including alternative fuel options. We argue that at the current stage of development, substitution of conventional car technology by a new automotive propulsion technology may lead to premature lock-in of suboptimal technology. To avoid such lock-in, one should value the variety of current R&D activity that enables organizations to learn from multiple options and to create spillovers between options. We further argue that the existence of technological variety is not a sufficient condition to avoid lock-in. Organizational variety is also required to sustain competition and avoid the dominance of few firms that possibly enforce a suboptimal technology within the sector. To assess whether recent developments in R&D have led to both technological variety and organizational competition, we analyze United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patents in low-emission vehicles (LEVs) during the period 1980–2001 using entropy statistics. Results show that both technological variety and organizational competition have increased steadily since the early nineties, suggesting that premature lock-in is unlikely to occur. From an environmental policy evaluation perspective, we consider the findings as a positive evaluation of the 1990 Californian Low Emission Vehicle program.     

The coefficient of the whole is an average of the coefficients of its parts: A special case of restricted least squares

This paper provides a consistent estimate of the bound of the marginal effect of an unobserved right-hand side variable on the dependent variable when only the sum of that variable with a positively correlated variable is available.     

Implementing technology-forcing policies: The 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments and the introduction of advanced automotive emissions controls in the United States

Technology forcing is a strategy where a regulator specifies a standard that cannot be met with existing technology, or at least not at an acceptable cost. Using the 1970 U.S. Clean Air Act for controlling automobile emissions as a baseline example, we demonstrate the importance of the regulatory implementation process if regulations are to foster technological change. The 1970 legislation required steep emissions reductions for new 1975 and 1976 automobiles, which presented automakers with major technical and economic challenges. Nevertheless, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency successfully forced the adoption of two marquee control technologies—the catalytic converter in 1975 and the three-way catalyst in 1981. We focus on three factors critical to the implementation process: agency credibility to enforce standards, competitive pressures to drive industry research and development, and uncertainty about technological development.