Trading income and bank charter value during the financial crisis: Does derivatives dealer designation matter?

Derivative markets have exploded over the last decade, remained active in the midst of the 2007–2009 financial crisis and continue to be dominated by a small group of bank holding companies (BHC). BHC motives for derivative usage are usually tied to hedging purposes (balance sheet risk management), trading purposes (profit motives) or some combination thereof. This paper examines the relationship between derivative trading income and bank charter value for 27 BHC between 2001Q1 and 2011Q3. We find that the impact of derivative trading income on bank charter value, using Tobin's Q, is very small and seems to be tied to BHCs derivatives dealer trading designation. We also find that trading incomes are a modest fraction of net operating revenue, highly volatile, and did not contribute to overall BHC income during the crisis.     

Incentive to manipulate earnings and its connection to analysts’ forecasts, trading, and corporate governance

We develop a model where insiders?? decision to manipulate earnings is linked both to their stake and to corporate governance. We show how earnings manipulation affects analysts?? forecasts and institutional trading. More precisely, whenever there is ??excessive?? earnings manipulation, we observe less optimistic analysts. Furthermore, institutions exhibit positive feedback trading behavior and appear to ??front-run?? analysts?? errors. Finally, companies with strong corporate governance are less prone to these phenomena, being able to avoid the detrimental effects of insiders?? incentives. We then provide strong empirical evidence to support our model.     

Media Coverage and the Stock Market Valuation of TARP Participating Banks‡

We examine the impact of media coverage of the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) under the Troubled Assets Relief Program on the equity market valuation of participating bank holding companies (CPP banks). We document substantial negative coverage of the CPP and its participants over the five quarters following the program's initiation. We find that the extent of negative media coverage about the CPP exerted substantial downward pressure on the stock returns of CPP banks, decreasing their valuation relative to bank holding companies not participating in the program. We show that our findings cannot be explained by differences in the banks’ financial viability at the CPP's initiation, new information about their performance being released to the market after the CPP's initiation or preceding stock returns causing the negative media coverage. Our findings highlight the importance of investor sentiment, as reflected by the tone of media coverage, in banks’ valuation during a period of high uncertainty in financial markets.     

Agency costs and dividend payments: The case of bank holding companies

This paper examines the hypothesis that agency costs are a primary factor motivating dividend payments. Norohna et al. (1996) present evidence that the agency cost rationale is context specific and that dividends will not be driven by agency costs when other mechanisms exist for controlling agency problems. We argue that regulation of bank holding companies involves a context specific case where agency costs may be less relevant. Using an empirical methodology similar to Born and Rimbey’s (1993), we find that the abnormal returns associated with dividend announcements by bank holding companies are not related to their external financing activities. The monitoring activities of the capital markets are not a rationale for dividend payments in the presence of bank regulation. Our results are robust to an alternative explanation involving the signaling role of new equity financings.     

The banking industry after the Riegle–Neal Act: re-structure and overall performance

The passage of the Riegle–Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act (IBBEA) of 1994 allowed bank holding companies to acquire banks in any state after September 30, 1995. We examine the impact of the legislation on the performance of the banking industry by comparing performance measures of banks with their pre-IBBEA levels. We find that the performance improved in the post-IBBEA period but when controlled for general economic conditions and interest rate movements, the impact of IBBEA on bank performance appears insignificant.     

Adapting supply chain management strategies to security – an analysis of existing gaps and recommendations for improvement

The purpose of this paper is to determine the main security threats in supply chains, to understand gaps in today’s supply chain management strategies and to make recommendations to enhance security in the context of supply chain management. Previous research lacks comprehensive studies and recommendations about how supply chain managers deal with security issues in line with the business visions and strategies of their companies. The study methodology is based on an exploratory approach. Data were collected from 20 managers from international companies by means of self-administered surveys, one-to-one interviews and group interviews. Study findings point out risk management as an important tool at the disposal of managers for trading off performance and vulnerability. However, some important challenges also need to be considered, such as lack of data, insiders, IT vulnerabilities, regulatory frameworks, criminal behaviour, etc. Hence, recommendations are made for managers to improve their understanding of supply chain security.     

金融控股模式下银行母公司开展银保业务的影响因素研究

金融控股模式下,研究银行母公司代理银行保险业务的影响因素,对于国内银行保险市场的竞争具有决定作用,并且对于未来国内金融控股集团的健康发展具有积极意义。文章研究了银行母公司开展银行保险业务的战略层因素、经济层因素、非经济层因素以及监管因素和其他利益相关者因素,有利于银行母公司、银行系保险公司和传统保险公司开展银行保险业务的行为选择。     

Insider trading around open-market share repurchases

We examine insider trading around open-market share repurchases and find that insiders trade passively in 3 months prior to repurchase announcements and in up to 12 months following the announcements. Furthermore, both pre-announcement and post-announcement abnormal insider trading is unrelated to short-term announcement returns but correlated with long-term post-announcement returns. Our results indicate that corporate insiders trade passively around repurchase announcements in accordance with their perceived undervaluation to exploit the long-run abnormal stock returns related to the events.     

重大事件披露、股价异常波动与内幕交易——基于重大信息披露违规公司的经验证据

规范化的信息披露是证券市场正常运转的基石。本文利用重大事件披露违规公司研究信息披露违规背后是否存在股价异常波动与内幕交易现象，并将样本公司按照处分类型和公司类型分类检验。研究表明，总体样本公司的股票存在显著的内幕交易行为，并呈现出牛市背景下的新特征：受到公开谴责的公司股票内幕交易程度显著高于受到公开处罚的公司股票，ST公司股票的内幕交易程度显著高于非ST公司股票。     

An investigation of causality between insider transactions and stock returns

Prior research shows that corporate insiders engage in profitable transactions by trading securities of their own firms. The main purpose of this study is to examine whether insider transactions and stock returns have causality relationships at the firm level for a sample of 2,521 firms during the period 1988 to 1998. We find a large impact of stock returns on subsequent insider transactions at both the aggregate and firm levels. The impact appears to be negative which suggests that insiders buy after stock price decreases and sell after stock price increases. Our findings on the predictive content of insider transactions for subsequent stock returns are primarily consistent with prior literature. We observe a positive but weak relationship between insider transactions and future stock returns.     

Emissions permit allocation and strategic firm behavior: Evidence from the oil sector in the European Union emissions trading scheme

With the growing urgency of climate change, governments around the world are increasingly implementing new regulations for greenhouse gases. This trend elevates the importance of examining how firms engage in strategic efforts to influence regulations before they are in place and how they respond once they are in effect (i.e., their ex‐ante and ex‐post strategic behavior). This paper examines the outcomes of such strategic efforts by multinational and domestic oil companies within the European Union emissions trading scheme. An analysis of a panel dataset of oil firms (2008–2012) shows that on average the outcome of ex‐ante strategies did not differ significantly between multinational companies (MNCs) and domestic firms. However, the findings indicate that among those firms that received positive net benefits from the new climate policy, domestic firms were able to maximize these benefits better than MNCs through their ex‐post strategies. In contrast, among the firms that faced net costs due to the policy, MNCs were able to minimize these costs better than domestic firms, ex‐post. This paper advances our understanding of whether and to what extent MNCs differ from domestic firms in their economic outcomes stemming from strategic behavior related to emissions trading. This question is especially pertinent for regulations related to climate change, which is one of humanity's grand challenges and has important consequences for our economic, social, and political systems.     

Insider ownership and dividend signals: Additional evidence from the banking industry

This study investigates the relationship between the concentration of insider ownership and the share-price response to dividend-policy changes implemented by bank holding companies (BHCs). Using a cross-industry sample, previous research (Born 1988) found that there are differences in the magnitude of the share-price response to dividend initiations which may be explained by the concentration of insider ownership of the sampled firms. We hypothesize that the concentration of insider ownership does not play a role in differences in share price for BHCs due to the presence of regulatory monitors. The results of this study support our hypothesis.     

论我国金融控股公司的模式选择

在全球金融混业浪潮中,金融控股公司成为混业经营首选的组织模式.同时,入世后我国金融业将面临着前所未有的挑战.文中结合美日等国金融业发展状况,提出构建以银行为主体的金融控股公司模式.     

International stock exchange listing and the reduction of political risk

The impending 1997 assimilation into the People's Republic of China made the 1980s a challenging period for Hong Kong, one in which Kong Kong-based companies relocated their corporate domiciles to other countries as political insurance. International listing, however, is another way for companies to reduce political risk. This paper examines the post-1985 effects of Hong Kong-based company stocks being quoted on London's International Stock Exchange. We document that there is no price effect for these companies after the first trading day and a significant increase in the average trading volume surrounding the event day. This may be attributed to the London market makers who build up their stakes before the listing and who unwind their positions in the Hong Kong market after the event day. We also find that there is, on average, a decrease in systematic risk of these companies after being traded on the London market. Furthermore, the evidence shows that there is an increase in systematic risk for companies that are not listed in London after 4 June 1989, however, not for those London-listed Hong Kong companies. The results constitute evidence to support the inference that there is a reduction of local political risk for internationally listed companies.     

Stress-testing US bank holding companies: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach

We propose an econometric framework for estimating capital shortfalls of bank holding companies (BHCs) under pre-specified macroeconomic scenarios. To capture the nonlinear dynamics of bank losses and revenues during periods of financial stress, we use a fixed effects quantile autoregressive (FE-QAR) model with exogenous macroeconomic covariates, an approach that delivers a superior out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to the standard linear framework. According to the out-of-sample forecasts, the realized net charge-offs during the 2007–09 crisis fall within the multi-step-ahead density forecasts implied by the FE-QAR model, but are frequently outside the density forecasts generated using the corresponding linear model. This difference reflects the fact that the linear specification substantially underestimates loan losses, especially for real estate loan portfolios. Employing the macroeconomic stress scenario used in CCAR 2012, we use the density forecasts generated by the FE-QAR model to simulate capital shortfalls for a panel of large BHCs. For almost all institutions in the sample, the FE-QAR model generates capital shortfalls that are considerably higher than those implied by its linear counterpart, which suggests that our approach has the potential to detect emerging vulnerabilities in the financial system.     

Stock volatility and trading

Both, rational and behavioral models predict that stock and market volatility affect trading by investors. Tax-induced trading hypothesis predicts that investors increase realization of capital losses short term and capital gains only long term as volatility increases. Behavioral models predict that disposition biases of holding on to losers and disposing of winners intensifies with volatility. We document that market and stock volatility influence stock trading. Evidence on trading in response to rise in market volatility supports tax-loss harvesting hypothesis – abnormal trading of losers increases and winners decreases. However, evidence on trading patterns conditional on individual stock volatility is in support of both tax-loss-harvesting and behavioral models: trading in both losing stocks (tax-loss-harvesting hypothesis) and winning stocks (disposition effect hypothesis) increases with rise in stock volatility.     

The Debt/Equity Swap in Latin America– In Whose Interest?

This paper presents the basic analytics of a debt/equity swap and illustrates the concept with a detailed example of American Express Bank's swap transactions that began in 1986 and have resulted in construction of seven hotels in Mexico during the course of the swap agreement. The economics of the swap are presented from the lending bank's view, from the foreign direct investor's view, and from the borrowing country's view. It is concluded that: swaps offer net benefits to the borrower country when additional investment is generated (from the swap transaction itself and/or from encouraging further investment as a result of the swap policy); they offer net benefits to the lender when future loan servicing prospects are poor and viable investment opportunities exist; and they offer net benefits to the direct investor when the cost of financing the investment through the swap is less than for alternative financing sources.
The analytical framework presented here allows the bank lender to formally compare alternatives of holding impaired LDC loans on its books, selling the loans in the secondary market, trading the loans for loans from another country, and swapping the loans for equity investments in the borrowing country. It similarly allows the government policymaker to compare the relevant economic costs and benefits of swaps, so that better swap policies can be developed.     

国外券商自营业务风险控制及对我国券商的启示

风险控制是证券自营业务风险管理的核心环节,是证券公司自营业务风险管理的关键所在。国外券商在自营业务风险控制方面各具特色且个性鲜明。在对国外著名券商自营业务风险控制分析的基础上,比较了国内券商与国外券商自营业务风险控制的差距。国外券商已经逐步形成一整套比较成热、完善的自营业务风险控制系统,对于我国证券公司自营业务风险控制改进有借鉴意义。     

社会化亟待提速

相比其他细分物流领域,医药物流的社会化进程并不顺利,不过,随着相关法规、政策、标准的进一步明确以及第三方物流企业的进入,医药物流的社会化进程有望加快。进入2月,中国邮政成为医药物流市场关注的热点。     

Option introduction and insider trading in the NASDAQ/NMS equity market

This paper investigates and supports the hypothesis that insiders have an incentive to shift their informed trading activities when options initially are listed for a firm. Firm size is found to be related to the level of insider trading activity. There is a significant decrease in insider equity-market volume for the smallest third of firms, a significant increase in insider-equity market volume for the middle third of firms, and a significant decrease in insider equity-market volume for the largest third of firms. This supports the hypothesis of a difference in the degree of impact on equity volume upon option introduction based upon firm size. This research provides additional evidence of informed trading activities when option introduction, insider trading, and firm size are considered simultaneously.